Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 1–1 Hearts

Saturday 7 January 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 7,249

St. Mirren Strain 4' · Fraser sent off 90+5'

Hearts Snodgrass 49'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals11
xG0.660.99
Expected Points1.001.63

St. Mirren 21%Draw 36%Hearts 42%

Most likely score 0–1, 21%. Final score 1–1, 16%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%2%11%7%2%3%5%2%18%21%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTFraser (St. Mirren), red card 90+5'Flynn on for Strain, 18'Kiltie on for Baccus, 46'Olusanya on for Greive, 78'R. Taylor on for Olusanya, 90+7'Humphrys on for Forrest, 69'Grant on for Devlin, 81'Strain 4'Snodgrass 49'Hearts 0.99St. Mirren 0.6600.511.50153045607590HTFraser (St. Mirren), red card 90+5'Flynn on for Strain, 18'Kiltie on for Baccus, 46'Olusanya on for Greive, 78'R. Taylor on for Olusanya, 90+7'Humphrys on for Forrest, 69'Grant on for Devlin, 81'Strain 4'Snodgrass 49'0.990.66St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

0.66 −0.44xG0.99 −0.64
0.47 −0.57xG on target1.22 −0.28
13 +2Shots10 −2
5 +2.1Shots on target3 −1.3
2 +0.1Big chances1 −1.3
20 +3Touches in the opposition box13 −9
26% −11Possession74% +21
215 −48Passes640 +217
64% +3Pass accuracy87% +12
31% −6Field tilt69% +22
33 +3Final-third entries60 +28
9 0.0Box entries9 −2.0
18.5 +2Passes per defensive action16.2 +2
3 −2.9Corners4 −1.0
18 +3Tackles7 −10
12 +2.6Interceptions5 −3.6
16 −7Clearances13 −5
2 −0.4Saves4 +0.4
18 +4Fouls7 −3
1 −0.3Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Greive 45+1', 0.13 xGShaughnessy 21', 0.07 xGShaughnessy 8', 0.06 xGFlynn 32', 0.06 xGMain 71', 0.06 xGMain 48', 0.04 xGOlusanya 88', 0.04 xGMain 44', 0.03 xGMain 48', 0.03 xGO'Hara 54', 0.03 xGMain 76', 0.03 xGKiltie 82', 0.03 xGStrain 4', 0.04 xG, goal20%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals35%0.23 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals12%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals33%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 61', 0.41 xGShankland 66', 0.13 xGRowles 35', 0.12 xGGinnelly 65', 0.07 xGShankland 11', 0.05 xGForrest 59', 0.05 xGHumphrys 83', 0.05 xGShankland 90+1', 0.05 xGGrant 90+1', 0.05 xGSnodgrass 49', 0.01 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals67%0.66 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.66 xG, 0 goals22%0.22 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals10%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

0.28 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.80 8 shots, 1 goal
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
0.33 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.12 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (53%) · St. Mirren 0.25, Hearts 0.81 xG
St. Mirren ahead
47 min (47%) · St. Mirren 0.41, Hearts 0.18 xG

Line-ups

123224183171362110CarsonStrainFraserShaughnessyDunneTanserBaccusGogicO'HaraGreiveMainGoalSent offYellow cardYellow card18'46'78'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson28211519214771730189ClarkSibbickRowlesCochraneM. SmithDevlinSnodgrassForrestGinnellyMcKayShanklandGoalYellow cardYellow card81'69'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 18' Flynn for Strain
  • 46' Kiltie for Baccus
  • 78' Olusanya for Greive · off 90+7'
  • 90+7' R. Taylor for Olusanya

Hearts substitutes

  • 69' Humphrys for Forrest
  • 81' Grant for Devlin

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0330
StrainRWB1810.040.0000.0002
Fraser CB900.000.0000.0224
ShaughnessyCB900.130.0100.02210
DunneCB900.000.0200.0452
TanserLWB900.000.0100.0648
Baccus CM460.000.0110.0013
GogicCM900.000.0710.1457
O'Hara CM900.030.0420.0534
GreiveST780.130.010−0.0131
MainST900.200.0200.0823
FlynnMF720.060.2220.2052
KiltieMF440.030.0520.0972
OlusanyaFW120.040.0000.0212
R. TaylorDF00.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0002
SibbickCB900.000.0000.0634
RowlesCB900.120.010−0.0854
CochraneCB900.000.0310.17143
M. SmithRWB900.000.4220.25113
DevlinCM810.000.0000.0012
Snodgrass CM9010.010.122−0.0221
ForrestLWB690.050.0200.06100
GinnellyAM900.070.1820.3750
McKay AM9010.000.0820.16151
ShanklandST900.640.0000.0113
HumphrysFW210.050.0100.0310
GrantMF90.050.0200.0232

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Cochrane and Devlin: 6 passesForrest and Devlin: 6 passesForrest and Ginnelly: 6 passesRowles and M. Smith: 7 passesCochrane and Ginnelly: 8 passesDevlin and McKay: 8 passesGinnelly and McKay: 8 passesClark and Rowles: 9 passesM. Smith and Forrest: 9 passesClark and Sibbick: 10 passesM. Smith and Snodgrass: 10 passesSibbick and Devlin: 11 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 12 passesM. Smith and Devlin: 12 passesForrest and McKay: 15 passesCochrane and Forrest: 16 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 18 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 18 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 25 passesCochrane and McKay: 30 passesSibbick and M. Smith: 31 passesRowles and Cochrane: 32 passesRowles and Sibbick: 37 passesClark: 21 completed passesRowles: 63 completed passesSibbick: 59 completed passesCochrane: 64 completed passesM. Smith: 46 completed passesForrest: 33 completed passesDevlin: 27 completed passesSnodgrass: 51 completed passesGinnelly: 17 completed passesMcKay: 37 completed passesShankland: 5 completed passes28152119217147730189ClarkRowlesSibbickCochraneM. SmithForrestDevlinSnodgrassGinnellyMcKayShanklandStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TanserKiltie6
DunneTanser5
CarsonMain5
KiltieTanser5
TanserOlusanya5

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane27
SibbickRowles25
RowlesSibbick23
SibbickM. Smith23
CochraneMcKay23

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.36−1.410−3.96−3.24+0.18−1.43−4.13−2.17+0.45−1.711+5.210+5.63−0.15+0.712+5.94+0.35+1.33+0.65+1.61−2.61−1.71−0.73+2.34+2.26+4.00−1.33+2.42+1.11+0.41+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Hearts

0−5.060.06−1.04−0.511+3.711+5.05−1.05−3.25−2.25−1.07+2.64+0.55+0.27+1.83−0.80−3.21−1.72−0.72−2.20−3.72+0.10−0.70−1.12−0.20−0.50−0.30−0.50−0.33+2.45−8.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.020.010.030.010.04−0.010.040.020.030.050.020.020.020.020.020.080.01−0.020.010.110.15LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.030.030.030.050.010.050.030.020.030.110.060.030.010.020.07−0.010.070.010.04−0.01−0.16−0.030.180.170.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren0.98 → 0.97Hearts1.35 → 1.34Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.35 → 1.35Hearts1.25 → 1.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six55%53%−2
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hearts
Top six99%99%0
Hibernian
Top six46%48%+2
11th3%3%0
St. Johnstone
Top six32%32%0
11th7%8%+1
Bottom2%3%+1

From the forecast before the match (7 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.201.33
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet26%30%

St. Mirren 33%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six55%69%53%45%
11th4%2%5%6%
Bottom1%1%1%2%
Hearts
Top six99%98%99%>99%
Hibernian
Top six46%42%48%47%
11th3%4%3%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six32%30%32%34%
11th7%7%8%6%
Bottom2%2%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D0–02 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.35–0.70
  2. D1–128 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.36–1.59
  3. W3–124 DecAberdeen (H)xG 3.27–0.98
  4. D1–112 NovRangers (H)xG 1.10–1.85
  5. D2–29 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.87–1.19
  6. L2–35 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.59–1.14

Hearts

  1. W3–02 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.76–1.19
  2. W3–228 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.33–2.50
  3. D2–224 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.72–0.79
  4. W3–117 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.40–1.09
  5. D1–112 NovLivingston (H)xG 2.95–1.84
  6. L0–19 NovRangers (A)xG 0.50–1.82

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position5th3rd
Played1819
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠5–⁠69–⁠4–⁠6
Points26 (1.44 per game)31 (1.63 per game)
Expected Points per game1.121.32
Goals21–⁠2535–⁠30
xG per game1.10–⁠1.431.63–⁠1.72
Home: points, xG per game2.10, 1.28–⁠1.082.11, 2.15–⁠1.62
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.88–⁠1.861.20, 1.16–⁠1.80
ManagerStephen Robinson (11)Robbie Neilson (57)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren0.98, 9thHearts1.35, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.35, 10thHearts1.25, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren attack: 0.98Hearts attack: 1.351.350.98HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren defence: 1.35Hearts defence: 1.251.351.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%−2%+24%+41%
Counter-attacks+50%−73%−62%−60%
Set pieces+11%−6%−5%+20%
Penalties+2%+104%+93%+21%
Headers+26%−1%−22%+37%
Left side−12%+14%+2%+24%
Centre−25%−14%+11%+42%
Right side−14%−14%+29%+28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−12%+28%Centre−25%+42%Right side−14%+24%Open play−31%+41%Counter-attacks+50%−60%Set pieces+11%+20%Headers+26%+37%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+2%−14%Centre+11%−14%Right side+29%+14%Open play+24%−2%Counter-attacks−62%−73%Set pieces−5%−6%Headers−22%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

1.10xG1.63
1.43xG against1.72
37%Possession53%
11.1Shots12.3
12.4Shots against14.6
2.9Shots on target4.3
1.9Big chances2.3
16.7Touches in the opposition box21.9
262Passes423
62%Pass accuracy75%
5.9Corners5.0
37%Field tilt48%
30.1Final-third entries32.5
9.0Box entries11.0
16.9Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.011.28
Ahead201.381.54
Behind221.051.66

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level312.161.52
Ahead331.272.07
Behind251.441.49

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.172–3
16–300.110.220–3
31–450.210.286–5
46–600.250.236–4
61–750.190.182–4
76–900.250.345–6

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.164–5
16–300.220.166–3
31–450.330.306–0
46–600.190.355–8
61–750.170.324–5
76–900.410.4210–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 18Strain 16Fraser 2Fraser 13Gogic 5Gallagher 15Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 18Tanser 10Tait 7Fraser 1Baccus 16Erhahon 18O'Hara 15Kiltie 5Ayunga 15Kiltie 1Main 16Greive 3Brophy 15-3-2 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 2Stewart 1Smith 10Sibbick 4Halkett 2Kingsley 8Sibbick 7Neilson 4Rowles 9Cochrane 7Cochrane 10Halliday 8Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 12Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 4Snodgrass 11Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4McKay 2Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 2McKay 11Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 13Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 February 2022St. Mirren0–2HeartsxG 0.11–3.13
27 November 2021Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.16–1.16
7 August 2021St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.73–0.47

3 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Hearts won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–6 and xG 0.67–1.92 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga151,186320.430.03
Main161,308300.190.08
O'Hara151,292400.200.06
Strain161,372120.040.17

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland151,4321520.910.05
Grant5494110.340.13
Ginnelly11939320.150.20
Forrest9846400.260.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.