Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 1–0 St. Mirren

Friday 13 January 2023, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 18,721

Hearts McKay 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals10
xG1.681.41
Expected Points1.581.15

Hearts 43%Draw 27%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 1–0, 7%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%4%3%1%7%9%4%1%7%9%4%1%3%5%4%2%1%2%1%13%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDevlin on for Cochrane, 60'Kuol on for McKay and Humphrys on for Ginnelly, 77'Forrest on for Halliday, 87'Kiltie on for O'Hara, 33'Ayunga on for Greive and Reid on for Baccus, 67'Brophy on for R. Taylor, 85'McKay 29'Hearts 1.68St. Mirren 1.4100.511.520153045607590HTDevlin on for Cochrane, 60'Kuol on for McKay and Humphrys on for Ginnelly, 77'Forrest on for Halliday, 87'Kiltie on for O'Hara, 33'Ayunga on for Greive and Reid on for Baccus, 67'Brophy on for R. Taylor, 85'McKay 29'1.681.41HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.68 +0.08xG1.41 +0.33
0.66 −0.83xG on target0.72 −0.29
12 0Shots19 +8
3 −1.2Shots on target4 +1.0
1 −1.2Big chances1 −0.9
25 +4Touches in the opposition box25 +8
68% +14Possession32% −4
517 +83Passes225 −35
82% +6Pass accuracy65% +3
64% +16Field tilt36% −1
41 +7Final-third entries36 +6
15 +4.1Box entries6 −3.0
16.8 +2Passes per defensive action18.0 +1
5 0.0Corners5 −0.8
6 −10Tackles10 −5
2 −6.4Interceptions14 +4.4
25 +8Clearances12 −11
4 +0.4Saves2 −0.4
8 −2Fouls13 −1
2 +0.7Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Humphrys 90+1', 0.62 xGShankland 18', 0.23 xGHalliday 56', 0.16 xGHalliday 8', 0.13 xGGinnelly 58', 0.13 xGGinnelly 58', 0.08 xGShankland 20', 0.07 xGShankland 42', 0.05 xGMcKay 1', 0.04 xGCochrane 44', 0.04 xGDevlin 66', 0.04 xGMcKay 29', 0.11 xG, goal14%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals60%1.01 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 1.01 xG, 1 goal12%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals14%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Ayunga 82', 0.22 xGKiltie 82', 0.17 xGMain 12', 0.15 xGGogic 76', 0.14 xGGreive 4', 0.10 xGMain 82', 0.10 xGMain 71', 0.09 xGMain 33', 0.07 xGKiltie 64', 0.07 xGR. Taylor 19', 0.06 xGTanser 85', 0.04 xGBaccus 5', 0.03 xGBaccus 14', 0.03 xGMain 57', 0.03 xGMain 90+5', 0.03 xGMain 25', 0.02 xGKiltie 36', 0.02 xGAyunga 71', 0.02 xGKiltie 61', 0.01 xG6%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals48%0.68 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals33%0.46 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.46 xG, 0 goals10%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

0.62 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.72 11 shots, 0 goals
0.83 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.23 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.69 8 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (31%) · Hearts 0.57, St. Mirren 0.39 xG
Hearts ahead
66 min (69%) · Hearts 1.11, St. Mirren 1.03 xG

Line-ups

28722115216771991830ClarkHillSibbickRowlesSmithHallidaySnodgrassCochraneShanklandMcKayGinnellyYellow cardYellow cardGoal87'60'77'77'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson1314581713632110CarsonGallagherShaughnessyR. TaylorFlynnBaccusGogicO'HaraTanserGreiveMainYellow cardYellow cardYellow card85'67'33'67'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Hearts substitutes

  • 60' Devlin for Cochrane
  • 77' Kuol for McKay
  • 77' Humphrys for Ginnelly
  • 87' Forrest for Halliday

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 33' Kiltie for O'Hara
  • 67' Reid for Baccus · yellow card 80'
  • 67' Ayunga for Greive
  • 85' Brophy for R. Taylor

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0113
HillCB900.000.0100.0996
SibbickCB900.000.0000.0326
RowlesCB900.000.0000.0886
Smith RWB900.000.0100.0242
HallidayCM8710.290.0910.0022
Snodgrass CM900.000.2020.1665
CochraneLWB600.040.1020.0972
ShanklandAM900.350.0210.0042
McKayAM7710.140.1220.22111
GinnellyST770.210.052−0.0350
DevlinMF300.040.0300.0511
KuolFW130.000.0110.0321
HumphrysFW130.620.0000.0820
ForrestMF30.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0450
Gallagher CB900.000.0100.0555
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0510.1147
R. TaylorCB850.060.0000.0238
FlynnRWB900.000.0810.0850
Baccus CM670.050.0000.0103
GogicCM900.140.0720.1266
O'HaraCM330.000.0000.0120
TanserLWB900.040.1640.1291
GreiveST670.100.0120.0210
Main ST900.490.2110.0745
KiltieMF570.280.0710.1721
Reid MF230.000.000−0.0102
AyungaFW230.240.0100.0113
BrophyFW50.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Hill: 4 passesSibbick and Halliday: 4 passesHill and Snodgrass: 4 passesHill and Ginnelly: 4 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 4 passesMcKay and Ginnelly: 4 passesClark and Hill: 5 passesSmith and Shankland: 6 passesCochrane and Ginnelly: 6 passesSnodgrass and Halliday: 6 passesClark and Sibbick: 7 passesMcKay and Shankland: 7 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 8 passesHalliday and Ginnelly: 8 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 9 passesCochrane and McKay: 11 passesClark and Rowles: 12 passesCochrane and Shankland: 12 passesRowles and McKay: 13 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 14 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 14 passesHill and Smith: 18 passesSibbick and Hill: 27 passesRowles and Cochrane: 28 passesRowles and Sibbick: 30 passesClark: 22 completed passesRowles: 50 completed passesSibbick: 46 completed passesHill: 31 completed passesSmith: 25 completed passesCochrane: 42 completed passesSnodgrass: 33 completed passesHalliday: 14 completed passesMcKay: 24 completed passesShankland: 9 completed passesGinnelly: 13 completed passes28152172219771618930ClarkRowlesSibbickHillSmithCochraneSnodgrassHallidayMcKayShanklandGinnellyStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Carson and Tanser: 3 passesShaughnessy and Tanser: 3 passesR. Taylor and Tanser: 3 passesBaccus and Greive: 3 passesFlynn and Baccus: 4 passesCarson: 2 completed passesShaughnessy: 5 completed passesR. Taylor: 5 completed passesGallagher: 3 completed passesFlynn: 2 completed passesTanser: 9 completed passesBaccus: 7 completed passesGogic: 5 completed passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesGreive: 4 completed passesMain: 1 completed passes1453183171362110CarsonShaughnessyR. TaylorGallagherFlynnTanserBaccusGogicO'HaraGreiveMainStarters until 33' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickHill23
RowlesSibbick20
SibbickRowles20
RowlesCochrane16
SmithHill13

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GogicTanser5
CarsonMain5
GogicKiltie5
TanserGogic4
ShaughnessyGallagher4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−1.74−2.015+2.070.03−1.58+0.58+1.74−2.011+3.04−3.17+2.51−2.54−0.82−1.81−2.00−2.60−2.71−3.11−0.90−0.72+1.03+0.80−0.51+0.70−0.51+0.80−0.72−3.91−4.30−3.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.712+4.611−2.72−2.011+1.67+0.14−1.02−4.66−0.64−2.12−2.74+1.03−1.46−0.41−2.77+3.32−0.44+0.52−1.54+1.46+4.43+2.22+0.12−0.22+0.82+1.30−1.00−0.60−0.93−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.010.020.020.030.070.040.020.050.050.020.030.020.070.020.030.110.01−0.050.020.020.19LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.040.020.080.030.030.020.01−0.020.020.060.070.140.120.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.34 → 1.34St. Mirren0.97 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.24 → 1.22St. Mirren1.35 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six98%99%+1
St. Mirren
Top six49%42%−7
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hibernian
Top six59%61%+2
11th1%1%0
St. Johnstone
Top six19%21%+2
11th8%8%0
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (13 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.780.88
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.980.78
Clean sheet41%17%

Hearts 58%Draw 24%St. Mirren 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six98%99%98%95%
St. Mirren
Top six49%42%53%68%
11th4%5%3%1%
Bottom1%1%<1%<1%
Hibernian
Top six59%61%59%54%
11th1%1%1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six19%21%19%16%
11th8%8%8%7%
Bottom2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–17 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.99–0.66
  2. W3–02 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.76–1.19
  3. W3–228 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.33–2.50
  4. D2–224 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.72–0.79
  5. W3–117 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.40–1.09
  6. D1–112 NovLivingston (H)xG 2.95–1.84

St. Mirren

  1. D1–17 JanHearts (H)xG 0.66–0.99
  2. D0–02 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.35–0.70
  3. D1–128 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.36–1.59
  4. W3–124 DecAberdeen (H)xG 3.27–0.98
  5. D1–112 NovRangers (H)xG 1.10–1.85
  6. D2–29 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.87–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd6th
Played2019
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠5–⁠67–⁠6–⁠6
Points32 (1.60 per game)27 (1.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.341.11
Goals36–⁠3122–⁠26
xG per game1.60–⁠1.661.08–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game2.11, 2.15–⁠1.622.00, 1.22–⁠1.07
Away: points, xG per game1.18, 1.14–⁠1.700.62, 0.88–⁠1.86
ManagerRobbie Neilson (58)Stephen Robinson (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.34, 3rdSt. Mirren0.97, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.24, 4thSt. Mirren1.35, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.34St. Mirren attack: 0.971.340.97St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.24St. Mirren defence: 1.351.351.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%+37%−32%−1%
Counter-attacks−56%−58%+43%−66%
Set pieces−10%+17%+9%−11%
Penalties+93%+21%+2%+103%
Headers−12%+32%+21%+8%
Left side−1%+24%−12%+14%
Centre+10%+34%−28%−13%
Right side+28%+26%−14%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−1%−16%Centre+10%−13%Right side+28%+14%Open play+23%−1%Counter-attacks−56%−66%Set pieces−10%−11%Headers−12%+8%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−12%+26%Centre−28%+34%Right side−14%+24%Open play−32%+37%Counter-attacks+43%−58%Set pieces+9%+17%Headers+21%+32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.60xG1.08
1.66xG against1.40
54%Possession36%
12.2Shots11.2
14.6Shots against12.3
4.2Shots on target3.0
2.2Big chances1.9
21.5Touches in the opposition box17.0
434Passes260
76%Pass accuracy62%
5.0Corners5.8
49%Field tilt37%
33.9Final-third entries30.1
10.9Box entries9.0
14.7Passes per defensive action17.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level322.121.45
Ahead321.272.07
Behind261.351.44

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.991.29
Ahead211.321.41
Behind201.051.66

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–6
16–300.210.156–3
31–450.320.296–0
46–600.180.346–8
61–750.190.314–5
76–900.400.4110–9

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.173–3
16–300.110.210–3
31–450.210.286–5
46–600.240.226–5
61–750.180.202–4
76–900.240.335–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 3Stewart 1M. Smith 11Sibbick 4Halkett 2Cochrane 8Sibbick 7Neilson 4Rowles 10Kingsley 8Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 1Devlin 13Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 4Snodgrass 11Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4McKay 2M. Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 2McKay 12Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 14Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 19Strain 17Fraser 2Fraser 14Gogic 5Gallagher 15Shaughn… 4ShaughnessyDunne 19Tanser 11Tait 7Fraser 1Baccus 17Erhahon 18Gogic 1O'Hara 16Kiltie 5Ayunga 15Kiltie 1Main 17Greive 4Brophy 15-3-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 January 2023St. Mirren1–1HeartsxG 0.66–0.99
26 February 2022St. Mirren0–2HeartsxG 0.11–3.13
27 November 2021Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.16–1.16
7 August 2021St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.73–0.47

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, St. Mirren won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–2 and xG 1.69–0.67 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland161,5221520.890.05
Grant5503110.350.14
Ginnelly121,029320.150.19
Forrest10915400.240.06

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga151,186320.430.03
Main171,398300.190.08
O'Hara161,382400.180.06
Strain171,390220.050.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.