Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 1–3 St. Mirren

Wednesday 21 April 2021, 19:45 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 35 · Half-time 1–0

Ross County White 18'

St. Mirren Erwin 50', Durmus 71', McGrath 90+2' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals13
xG0.652.23
Non-penalty xG0.651.44
Expected Points0.342.51

Ross County 6%Draw 16%St. Mirren 78%

Most likely score 0–2, 18%. Final score 1–3, 9%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%12%12%5%1%1%9%12%9%3%3%4%3%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHylton on for Vigurs, Paton on for McKay, and Charles-Cook on for Gardyne, 67'Spittal on for Naismith, 76'Shaw on for Draper, 82'McAllister on for Henderson and Quaner on for Dennis, 68'Finlayson on for Tait, 90+4'White 18'Erwin 50'Durmus 71'McGrath 90+2' (pen)St. Mirren 2.23Ross County 0.6501230153045607590HTHylton on for Vigurs, Paton on for McKay, and Charles-Cook on for Gardyne, 67'Spittal on for Naismith, 76'Shaw on for Draper, 82'McAllister on for Henderson and Quaner on for Dennis, 68'Finlayson on for Tait, 90+4'White 18'Erwin 50'Durmus 71'McGrath 90+2' (pen)2.230.65Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.65 −0.37xG2.23 +1.17
0.65Non-penalty xG1.44
1.44 +0.62xG on target2.93 +1.98
12 +2.3Shots15 +3.2
3 −0.1Shots on target5 +1.6
0 −1.3Big chances3 +2.0
20 +5Touches in the opposition box25 +8
52% +4Possession48% +1
428 +49Passes398 +39
68% −1Pass accuracy68% +1
56% +12Field tilt44% 0
38 +3Final-third entries36 +2
12 +4.4Box entries13 +5.1
11.7 −2Passes per defensive action14.1 0
7 +2.9Corners4 −1.0
13 −1Tackles7 −6
7 −4Interceptions18 +7
13 −12Clearances22 +2
2 −1.3Saves2 −1.1
12 −2Fouls11 0
1 −0.6Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

White 59', 0.08 xGIacovitti 90+4', 0.07 xGNaismith 41', 0.06 xGTillson 45', 0.06 xGMcKay 56', 0.05 xGMcKay 65', 0.05 xGWhite 90+1', 0.05 xGMcKay 48', 0.04 xGNaismith 66', 0.04 xGGardyne 28', 0.03 xGVigurs 49', 0.03 xGWhite 18', 0.10 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.46 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal20%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

McCarthy 60', 0.40 xGHenderson 2', 0.10 xGMacPherson 75', 0.08 xGTait 3', 0.07 xGDennis 38', 0.07 xGMacPherson 90+1', 0.07 xGDurmus 44', 0.06 xGMcAllister 84', 0.05 xGErwin 7', 0.03 xGFraser 12', 0.03 xGErwin 47', 0.03 xGMacPherson 86', 0.03 xGErwin 50', 0.29 xG, goalDurmus 71', 0.13 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%1.21 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.21 xG, 2 goals3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.47 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.84 11 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.13 1 shot, 1 goal
0.18 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.47 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
39 min (41%) · Ross County 0.31, St. Mirren 0.77 xG
Ross County ahead
32 min (34%) · Ross County 0.21, St. Mirren 0.45 xG
St. Mirren ahead
23 min (24%) · Ross County 0.12, St. Mirren 1.02 xG

Line-ups

12315164221167926LaidlawNaismithWatsonIacovittiHjeldeTillsonVigursDraperGardyneMcKayWhiteYellow cardGoal76'67'82'67'67'Ross County 4-4-1-1John Hughes122541130172142320AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyDurmusHendersonMcGrathTaitMacPhersonErwinDennisGoalGoalGoal68'90+4'68'St. Mirren 4-4-2Jim Goodwin

Ross County substitutes

  • 67' Paton for McKay
  • 67' Hylton for Vigurs
  • 67' Charles-Cook for Gardyne
  • 76' Spittal for Naismith
  • 82' Shaw for Draper

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 68' Quaner for Dennis · 1 assist
  • 68' McAllister for Henderson
  • 90+4' Finlayson for Tait

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0321
NaismithRB760.090.1520.12124
WatsonCB900.000.0000.0203
IacovittiCB900.070.0100.0767
Hjelde LB900.000.0000.0001
TillsonRM9010.060.1120.1542
VigursCM670.030.1800.11107
DraperCM820.000.0100.0124
GardyneLM670.030.1240.0720
McKayAM670.150.010−0.0303
WhiteST9010.220.041−0.0120
PatonMF230.000.0200.0221
HyltonFW230.000.0000.0000
Charles-CookFW230.000.0100.0201
SpittalMF140.000.1220.2021
ShawFW80.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0441
FraserRB900.030.0200.0585
McCarthyCB900.400.0200.0767
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0100.06512
DurmusLB9010.190.2410.2173
HendersonRM680.100.1110.1052
McGrathCM9010.790.0410.0347
TaitCM9010.070.2210.1988
MacPhersonLM900.180.0200.0461
ErwinST9010.350.0520.0420
DennisST680.070.053−0.0212
QuanerFW2210.000.1530.1201
McAllisterFW220.050.0710.1230
FinlaysonDF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Naismith and Gardyne: 5 passesIacovitti and Hjelde: 5 passesHjelde and Draper: 5 passesDraper and Gardyne: 5 passesIacovitti and Vigurs: 6 passesIacovitti and Gardyne: 6 passesHjelde and Vigurs: 6 passesTillson and McKay: 6 passesDraper and White: 6 passesWatson and Vigurs: 7 passesTillson and Gardyne: 7 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 8 passesHjelde and McKay: 8 passesVigurs and White: 8 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 9 passesGardyne and McKay: 9 passesNaismith and McKay: 10 passesHjelde and Gardyne: 10 passesNaismith and Watson: 11 passesIacovitti and Watson: 11 passesVigurs and Gardyne: 12 passesNaismith and Draper: 13 passesNaismith and Tillson: 14 passesVigurs and McKay: 15 passesLaidlaw: 16 completed passesNaismith: 31 completed passesIacovitti: 21 completed passesWatson: 26 completed passesHjelde: 19 completed passesTillson: 19 completed passesDraper: 24 completed passesVigurs: 35 completed passesGardyne: 31 completed passesMcKay: 22 completed passesWhite: 10 completed passes12316154226117926LaidlawNaismithIacovittiWatsonHjeldeTillsonDraperVigursGardyneMcKayWhiteStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Shaughnessy: 5 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 5 passesHenderson and McGrath: 5 passesMcCarthy and Henderson: 6 passesMcCarthy and Tait: 6 passesHenderson and Dennis: 6 passesMcGrath and MacPherson: 6 passesTait and Erwin: 6 passesFraser and Erwin: 7 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 7 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 7 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 7 passesDurmus and McGrath: 7 passesFraser and McGrath: 8 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 8 passesDurmus and Erwin: 8 passesTait and MacPherson: 8 passesDurmus and MacPherson: 9 passesMcGrath and Tait: 9 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 10 passesFraser and Henderson: 11 passesFraser and McCarthy: 13 passesAlnwick: 14 completed passesFraser: 30 completed passesShaughnessy: 23 completed passesMcCarthy: 34 completed passesDurmus: 21 completed passesHenderson: 20 completed passesMcGrath: 28 completed passesTait: 26 completed passesMacPherson: 17 completed passesDennis: 11 completed passesErwin: 13 completed passes122451130172142023AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyDurmusHendersonMcGrathTaitMacPhersonDennisErwinStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
VigursMcKay9
DraperNaismith8
WatsonNaismith8
TillsonNaismith8
NaismithMcKay7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyFraser11
McCarthyMcGrath8
DurmusErwin7
AlnwickMcCarthy7
FraserHenderson7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−2.54−2.510−5.65−4.06+0.210+2.610+2.610+2.37−2.44−4.76+0.810+4.63−0.614+8.75−0.72−2.29+5.44+1.75+1.83−1.24+2.00−1.16+4.90−1.55+3.10−0.80−0.32+1.40−0.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

St. Mirren

4−1.28+2.613−0.55−1.45−0.511+3.310+2.25−2.611+2.89+2.22−2.912+5.95+0.88+2.76+0.24−0.26+2.62−0.67+3.63−1.56+4.00−1.51−0.22+0.32−0.20−1.00−0.21+0.21+0.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.020.030.020.070.030.030.030.060.010.02−0.030.100.040.06−0.010.03−0.05−0.020.020.24LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.030.020.040.040.010.010.020.040.010.040.020.010.140.040.020.040.040.060.07−0.220.030.050.250.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackRoss County0.95 → 0.94St. Mirren0.93 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.56 → 1.59St. Mirren1.17 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th41%44%+3
Bottom19%29%+10
Kilmarnock
11th38%30%−8
Bottom15%12%−3
Hamilton Academical
11th22%26%+4
Bottom66%59%−7

From the forecast before the match (21 April 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.061.24
Win31%39%
Expected Points1.221.48
Clean sheet29%34%

Ross County 31%Draw 30%St. Mirren 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%3%1%8%3%1%6%7%4%2%2%2%2%11%12%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 April 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
11th41%33%44%44%
Bottom19%7%18%29%
Kilmarnock
11th38%49%35%30%
Bottom15%18%15%12%
Hamilton Academical
11th22%17%20%26%
Bottom66%74%67%59%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D2–210 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 1.07–0.69
  2. L0–120 MarSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.15–1.93
  3. L1–213 MarHibernian (H)xG 1.36–2.75
  4. W3–26 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.21–1.67
  5. L0–127 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.91–1.41
  6. W1–021 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.98–2.31

St. Mirren

  1. L0–110 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.45–1.95
  2. D1–120 MarHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.81–0.79
  3. L0–36 MarRangers (A)xG 0.21–1.50
  4. W1–027 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.41–1.91
  5. D0–024 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.30–1.39
  6. D1–120 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.71–0.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position10th9th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠6–⁠2010–⁠10–⁠14
Points30 (0.88 per game)40 (1.18 per game)
Expected Points per game0.881.21
Goals28–⁠6130–⁠39
xG per game1.02–⁠1.791.06–⁠1.26
Home: points, xG per game0.94, 1.02–⁠2.021.12, 1.08–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 1.01–⁠1.571.24, 1.04–⁠1.31
ManagerJohn Hughes (16)Jim Goodwin (34)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackRoss County0.95, 8thSt. Mirren0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.56, 12thSt. Mirren1.17, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County attack: 0.95St. Mirren attack: 0.930.950.93St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprRoss County defence: 1.56St. Mirren defence: 1.171.561.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%+40%−27%+12%
Counter-attacks+29%−7%−10%−64%
Set pieces−14%+21%−6%−6%
Penalties−66%+123%+20%−31%
Headers+13%+5%−27%+9%
Left side−22%+31%−8%−1%
Centre−2%+43%−23%+3%
Right side−27%+14%−28%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−22%+12%Centre−2%+3%Right side−27%−1%Open play−17%+12%Counter-attacks+29%−64%Set pieces−14%−6%Headers+13%+9%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−8%+14%Centre−23%+43%Right side−28%+31%Open play−27%+40%Counter-attacks−10%−7%Set pieces−6%+21%Headers−27%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.02xG1.06
1.79xG against1.26
48%Possession47%
9.7Shots11.8
14.4Shots against12.2
3.1Shots on target3.4
1.3Big chances1.0
14.9Touches in the opposition box17.5
379Passes359
69%Pass accuracy67%
4.1Corners5.0
44%Field tilt44%
35.1Final-third entries33.6
7.6Box entries7.9
14.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.011.77
Ahead140.522.07
Behind331.241.71

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.081.17
Ahead181.311.26
Behind280.871.41

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.314–7
16–300.140.267–11
31–450.150.213–5
46–600.220.344–11
61–750.160.342–13
76–900.210.338–14

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.143–4
16–300.150.214–10
31–450.270.158–6
46–600.090.263–6
61–750.120.253–8
76–900.280.259–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 29Doohan 5Naismith 12Randall 10Watson 4Donaldson 19Watson 9Morris 9Iacovitti 26Hjelde 4Grivosti 1Reid 17Tremarco 6Hjelde 3Vigurs 11Tillson 5Draper 4Paton 5Charles-Cook 5Gardyne 4Paton 14Tillson 9Draper 7Vigurs 11Kelly 11Lakin 8Gardyne 9Hylton 6Stewart 6Shaw 11Stewart 9White 74-1-4-1 in 8 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-4-1-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (4), 4-5-1 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 30Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 25Tait 5Connolly 3McCarthy 33Shaughnessy 31Foley 3Tait 1Tait 20Durmus 7Obika 3Connolly 9McAllister 8McGrath 4McGrath 21MacPhers… 9MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 18Doyle-HayesFraser 3McAllister 2Erhahon 25Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 12Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 11Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 February 2021St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 1.41–1.91
26 December 2020Ross County0–2St. MirrenxG 0.54–1.79
22 August 2020St. Mirren1–1Ross CountyxG 1.31–2.21

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, St. Mirren won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–4 and xG 1.55–1.50 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White7658220.360.07
Stewart191,650210.370.06
McKay131,221510.310.11
Shaw121,251610.290.06

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath312,541710.280.14
Morias7664000.250.09
Obika201,961510.290.05
Erwin141,284200.230.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.