Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

St. Mirren 1–1 Hibernian

Saturday 11 December 2021, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 18 · Half-time 0–0 · Attendance 4,698

St. Mirren Shaughnessy 87'

Hibernian Campbell 52'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals11
xG0.601.06
Expected Points0.861.78

St. Mirren 17%Draw 36%Hibernian 47%

Most likely score 0–1, 24%. Final score 1–1, 19%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+14%11%2%9%8%2%2%4%2%24%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTDennis on for Flynn, 60'Ronan on for Kiltie, 61'McAllister on for Millar, 65'Wright on for Murphy, 72'Doidge on for Nisbet, 83'Shaughnessy 87'Campbell 52'Hibernian 1.06St. Mirren 0.6000.511.50153045607590HTDennis on for Flynn, 60'Ronan on for Kiltie, 61'McAllister on for Millar, 65'Wright on for Murphy, 72'Doidge on for Nisbet, 83'Shaughnessy 87'Campbell 52'1.060.60St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

0.60 −0.47xG1.06 −0.34
0.75 −0.20xG on target1.56 +0.28
7 −6Shots10 −2
3 −1.7Shots on target5 +1.2
1 +0.1Big chances1 −0.5
15 −5Touches in the opposition box17 −3
56% +6Possession44% −10
363 +2Passes295 −112
69% 0Pass accuracy63% −11
45% −2Field tilt55% 0
42 +10Final-third entries23 −18
9 −1Box entries9 −3
11.2 −2Passes per defensive action12.0 −1
4 −1.9Corners5 −0.8
19 +5Tackles15 +1
5 −4.6Interceptions6 −3.2
16 −1Clearances30 +15
4 +0.3Saves2 −0.8
10 −2Fouls19 +8
3 −0.1Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Main 81', 0.11 xGShaughnessy 54', 0.08 xGMcGrath 78', 0.08 xGPower 39', 0.04 xGFlynn 40', 0.04 xGKiltie 29', 0.01 xGShaughnessy 87', 0.24 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.47 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.47 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals22%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Porteous 6', 0.23 xGNisbet 26', 0.09 xGNewell 50', 0.07 xGMurphy 6', 0.05 xGDoidge 88', 0.03 xGBoyle 76', 0.02 xGNisbet 6', 0.01 xGMurphy 50', 0.01 xGCampbell 52', 0.55 xG, goal21%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals68%0.73 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.73 xG, 1 goal5%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.43 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.71 5 shots, 1 goal
0.17 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.35 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (61%) · St. Mirren 0.09, Hibernian 1.05 xG
Hibernian ahead
35 min (39%) · St. Mirren 0.51, Hibernian 0.02 xG

Line-ups

1418224486371110AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserMillarFlynnPowerTanserMcGrathKiltieMainYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card65'60'61'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin12752416131110321815MaceyCaddenPorteousMcGregorStevensonGogicNewellBoyleCampbellMurphyNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card72'83'Hibernian 4-2-3-1David Gray

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' Dennis for Flynn
  • 61' Ronan for Kiltie
  • 65' McAllister for Millar

Hibernian substitutes

  • 72' Wright for Murphy
  • 83' Doidge for Nisbet

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Alnwick GK900.000.0000.0452
ShaughnessyCB9010.320.0300.1258
DunneCB900.000.0000.0349
FraserCB900.000.0100.0543
MillarRWB650.000.0000.0135
Flynn CM600.040.0000.0021
Power CM900.040.0900.1279
Tanser LWB9010.000.3230.43132
McGrathAM900.080.0620.0123
KiltieAM610.010.000−0.0121
MainST900.110.0000.0000
DennisFW300.000.0200.0010
RonanMF290.000.0100.0441
McAllisterFW250.000.0100.0331

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0012
Cadden RB900.000.0300.0664
Porteous CB900.230.0300.0235
McGregor CB900.000.0000.00121
StevensonLB900.000.0200.0976
GogicDM900.000.0410.0236
NewellDM900.070.2810.0233
BoyleRW900.020.1410.1031
Campbell AM9010.550.0920.0722
MurphyLW720.060.0310.0971
NisbetST830.110.0620.1031
WrightDF180.000.0000.0111
DoidgeFW70.030.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Fraser: 3 passesAlnwick and Tanser: 3 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 3 passesDunne and McGrath: 3 passesPower and Kiltie: 3 passesMcGrath and Kiltie: 3 passesFraser and Flynn: 4 passesFlynn and McGrath: 4 passesShaughnessy and Main: 5 passesMillar and Power: 5 passesPower and Flynn: 5 passesShaughnessy and Power: 6 passesFraser and Tanser: 6 passesFraser and Power: 6 passesTanser and Flynn: 6 passesTanser and Kiltie: 6 passesAlnwick and Millar: 7 passesPower and McGrath: 7 passesShaughnessy and Flynn: 8 passesMillar and McGrath: 8 passesTanser and Power: 8 passesAlnwick: 12 completed passesShaughnessy: 16 completed passesDunne: 7 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesMillar: 8 completed passesTanser: 17 completed passesPower: 25 completed passesFlynn: 13 completed passesMcGrath: 15 completed passesKiltie: 8 completed passesMain: 3 completed passes1418224436871110AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserMillarTanserPowerFlynnMcGrathKiltieMainStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Stevenson and Gogic: 3 passesStevenson and Newell: 3 passesGogic and Campbell: 3 passesBoyle and Murphy: 3 passesCampbell and Nisbet: 3 passesMurphy and Nisbet: 3 passesPorteous and Stevenson: 4 passesMcGregor and Newell: 4 passesGogic and Murphy: 4 passesCadden and Porteous: 5 passesPorteous and McGregor: 5 passesMcGregor and Stevenson: 6 passesCadden and Nisbet: 8 passesCampbell and Murphy: 8 passesCadden and Boyle: 9 passesStevenson and Campbell: 9 passesPorteous and Newell: 10 passesCadden and Newell: 11 passesCadden and Campbell: 13 passesStevenson and Murphy: 14 passesMacey: 6 completed passesCadden: 33 completed passesPorteous: 17 completed passesMcGregor: 10 completed passesStevenson: 27 completed passesGogic: 12 completed passesNewell: 22 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesCampbell: 17 completed passesMurphy: 13 completed passesNisbet: 8 completed passes12752416131110321815MaceyCaddenPorteousMcGregorStevensonGogicNewellBoyleCampbellMurphyNisbetStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
PowerTanser9
TanserFraser7
AlnwickMillar7
ShaughnessyPower7
FraserTanser6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonMurphy11
CaddenCampbell9
CaddenNewell8
StevensonCampbell7
CaddenBoyle7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

4−0.13−2.615+0.82−3.72−3.14−3.05−2.111+5.19+1.912+4.84−2.37+1.36+1.712+5.97−0.13−1.44+1.25+2.57+3.25+0.91−1.21−0.50−1.01−0.80−2.21+0.10−0.30−0.81+0.80−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Hibernian

1−3.94−0.818+7.110+4.87+1.95−1.912+5.25−0.814+6.06−0.16+0.312+6.91−2.76−0.95+0.15−0.41−2.73+0.84+0.76+2.41−1.30−1.62+1.11−0.25+2.91+0.10−0.13+2.11+0.90−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.010.030.020.010.030.010.010.010.040.040.050.050.050.010.050.010.090.09−0.010.24LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.030.010.040.010.040.04−0.030.020.06−0.020.090.090.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.99 → 0.98Hibernian1.25 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.36Hibernian1.03 → 1.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six6%5%−1
11th20%20%0
Bottom14%14%0
Hibernian
Top six76%74%−2
11th1%1%0
Ross County
11th23%23%0
Bottom36%38%+2
Dundee United
Top six52%53%+1
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (11 December 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals0.971.39
Win26%46%
Expected Points1.051.66
Clean sheet25%38%

St. Mirren 26%Draw 28%Hibernian 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%9%9%4%1%4%6%4%2%1%2%1%10%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 December 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six6%13%5%4%
11th20%14%20%23%
Bottom14%8%14%17%
Hibernian
Top six76%64%74%84%
11th1%1%1%<1%
Ross County
11th23%23%23%23%
Bottom36%39%38%34%
Dundee United
Top six52%55%53%50%
11th3%4%3%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–44 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.95–4.40
  2. D0–01 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.89–0.93
  3. L0–227 NovHearts (A)xG 1.16–2.16
  4. D1–120 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.91–0.76
  5. D0–06 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.76–0.18
  6. L0–130 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.79–0.66

Hibernian

  1. L0–18 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.95–1.23
  2. D1–14 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.89–1.32
  3. L0–11 DecRangers (H)xG 0.22–1.78
  4. W2–127 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.27–0.12
  5. L0–124 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.52–1.21
  6. L1–327 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.50–2.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position8th7th
Played1716
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠8–⁠65–⁠4–⁠7
Points17 (1.00 per game)19 (1.19 per game)
Expected Points per game1.221.58
Goals17–⁠2818–⁠20
xG per game1.07–⁠1.581.40–⁠1.05
Home: points, xG per game0.88, 1.04–⁠1.071.38, 1.34–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game1.11, 1.10–⁠2.031.00, 1.45–⁠0.99
ManagerJim Goodwin (55)David Gray (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.99, 8thHibernian1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 9thHibernian1.03, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Mirren attack: 0.99Hibernian attack: 1.251.250.99HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Mirren defence: 1.37Hibernian defence: 1.031.371.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%+39%+11%−14%
Counter-attacks+13%+28%+107%+88%
Set pieces+42%average−38%−19%
Penalties−18%+24%+119%−56%
Headers+36%−2%−20%+9%
Left side−8%+40%−6%−5%
Centre−9%+23%−1%−4%
Right side−27%+26%+13%−33%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−8%−33%Centre−9%−4%Right side−27%−5%Open play−35%−14%Counter-attacks+13%+88%Set pieces+42%−19%Headers+36%+9%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−6%+26%Centre−1%+23%Right side+13%+40%Open play+11%+39%Counter-attacks+107%+28%Set pieces−38%averageHeaders−20%−2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.07xG1.40
1.58xG against1.05
50%Possession54%
13.2Shots12.4
14.6Shots against10.7
4.7Shots on target3.8
0.9Big chances1.5
20.4Touches in the opposition box20.1
361Passes407
68%Pass accuracy74%
5.9Corners5.8
47%Field tilt55%
32.2Final-third entries41.1
10.2Box entries12.4
13.0Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.171.16
Ahead171.001.76
Behind280.942.16

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.320.99
Ahead181.270.98
Behind261.601.19

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.234–3
16–300.130.181–5
31–450.150.344–7
46–600.230.272–4
61–750.150.413–7
76–900.320.153–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.111–4
16–300.170.203–4
31–450.200.174–3
46–600.220.124–3
61–750.340.203–2
76–900.300.243–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTAlnwick 17Shaughnessy 15McAllister 1Tait 1McCarthy 11Dunne 6Fraser 17Millar 4Tait 4Ronan 3Power 15McGrath 3Reid 2Flynn 6Erhahon 6Tanser 17McGrath 5Ronan 5Millar 3Main 8Dennis 1Brophy 15McGrath 6Ronan 43-4-1-2 in 6 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-1-4-2 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMacey 16McGinn 11Cadden 4Doig 1Porteous 13McGregor 4Wood 1Hanlon 14Doig 11Stevenson 2Nisbet 1Doyle-Hayes 13Cadden 2Newell 12Magennis 3Gogic 2Boyle 8McGinn 4Cadden 3Campbell 5Magennis 4Allan 3Murphy 7Nisbet 3Doig 2Nisbet 9Boyle 5Scott 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 September 2021Hibernian2–2St. MirrenxG 2.10–0.82
2 February 2021St. Mirren1–2HibernianxG 0.65–1.60
23 December 2020Hibernian1–0St. MirrenxG 0.86–0.85
12 September 2020St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 1.24–1.09

4 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Hibernian won 3, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–8 and xG 0.89–1.41 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tanser171,402230.090.26
Tait6644010.200.12
Brophy151,263500.280.01
McGrath151,334210.110.17

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murphy7589110.370.24
Boyle151,331700.390.18
Nisbet141,202400.350.05
Magennis7580210.240.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.