Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 5–2 Dundee United

Saturday 6 November 2021, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 13 · Half-time 2–1 · Attendance 18,129

Hearts Woodburn 22', 50', Cochrane 25', Kingsley 76', McEneff 86'

Dundee United Edwards 34', Clark 62'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsDundee United
Goals52
xG2.140.85
Expected Points2.250.54

Hearts 68%Draw 21%Dundee United 11%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 5–2, 1%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%3%1%4%5%1%8%9%3%4%4%2%1%1%9%11%12%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMackay-Steven on for McKay, 67'Gnanduillet on for Ginnelly, 79'McEneff on for Woodburn, 82'Smith on for Mulgrew, 46'Biamou on for Glass, 62'Woodburn 22'Cochrane 25'Woodburn 50'Kingsley 76'McEneff 86'Edwards 34'Clark 62'Hearts 2.14Dundee United 0.8501230153045607590HTMackay-Steven on for McKay, 67'Gnanduillet on for Ginnelly, 79'McEneff on for Woodburn, 82'Smith on for Mulgrew, 46'Biamou on for Glass, 62'Woodburn 22'Cochrane 25'Woodburn 50'Kingsley 76'McEneff 86'Edwards 34'Clark 62'2.140.85HeartsDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsDundee United

2.14 +0.79xG0.85 −0.16
2.39 +0.82xG on target2.28 +0.94
22 +10Shots12 +1
12 +8.2Shots on target6 +1.6
2 +0.7Big chances2 +0.5
41 +19Touches in the opposition box12 −4
55% 0Possession45% −2
456 +6Passes377 −4
78% +1Pass accuracy72% +2
75% +21Field tilt25% −24
58 +13Final-third entries28 −8
22 +10.1Box entries4 −4.1
15.9 +3Passes per defensive action13.2 −1
8 +2.7Corners6 +1.1
12 −2Tackles14 0
10 +1.2Interceptions13 +2.8
17 +1Clearances25 +4
4 −0.1Saves7 +4.8
8 −4Fouls13 0
1 −1.5Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Devlin 43', 0.36 xGMcKay 42', 0.22 xGGinnelly 50', 0.14 xGSouttar 36', 0.10 xGDevlin 25', 0.09 xGMoore 65', 0.09 xGWoodburn 44', 0.07 xGGinnelly 70', 0.06 xGBaningime 73', 0.06 xGWoodburn 11', 0.04 xGSouttar 64', 0.04 xGMoore 33', 0.03 xGWoodburn 56', 0.03 xGGnanduillet 90+1', 0.03 xGGnanduillet 90+3', 0.03 xGHalkett 59', 0.02 xGDevlin 84', 0.02 xGMcEneff 86', 0.47 xG, goalCochrane 25', 0.09 xG, goalKingsley 76', 0.09 xG, goalWoodburn 22', 0.04 xG, goalWoodburn 50', 0.03 xG, goal8%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal76%1.64 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.64 xG, 3 goals11%0.24 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal4%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Clark 29', 0.31 xGClark 16', 0.07 xGNiskanen 54', 0.07 xGMcMann 78', 0.06 xGGlass 10', 0.02 xGHarkes 39', 0.02 xGGlass 45', 0.02 xGFuchs 53', 0.02 xGGlass 56', 0.02 xGMulgrew 20', 0.01 xGClark 62', 0.22 xG, goalEdwards 34', 0.02 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.61 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.61 xG, 1 goal15%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsDundee United

1.86 17 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.53 10 shots, 2 goals
0.28 5 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.32 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (24%) · Hearts 0.08, Dundee United 0.10 xG
Hearts ahead
71 min (76%) · Hearts 2.06, Dundee United 0.75 xG

Line-ups

14193151461718309GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleyMooreDevlinBaningimeCochraneMcKayGinnellyWoodburnGoalGoalGoalGoal67'79'82'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson122124338662123710SiegristFreemanEdwardsMulgrewMcMannPawlettFuchsGlassHarkesNiskanenClarkYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'62'Dundee United 4-5-1Tam Courts

Hearts substitutes

  • 67' Mackay-Steven for McKay · 1 assist
  • 79' Gnanduillet for Ginnelly
  • 82' McEneff for Woodburn · goal 86'

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Smith for Mulgrew
  • 62' Biamou for Glass

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0300.0923
SouttarCB900.140.0300.0889
HalkettCB900.020.120−0.1107
KingsleyCB9010.090.0510.20184
MooreRWB9010.120.0310.14162
DevlinCM9010.470.083−0.0186
BaningimeCM900.060.0100.0033
CochraneLWB90110.090.4050.2556
McKayRW670.220.0620.0950
GinnellyST7910.200.2430.1750
WoodburnLW8220.210.1120.0950
Mackay-StevenFW2310.000.2840.1951
GnanduilletFW110.070.0000.0222
McEneffMF810.470.0100.0500

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Siegrist GK900.000.0000.0231
FreemanRB9010.000.1910.1968
Edwards CB9010.020.0100.101012
MulgrewCB460.010.1010.0011
McMannLB900.060.0100.0118
PawlettRM900.000.0620.0951
Fuchs CM900.020.0000.0346
GlassCM6210.050.1030.0644
HarkesCM900.020.0310.0333
NiskanenLM900.070.011−0.0115
ClarkST9010.600.0200.0131
SmithDF440.000.0000.0106
BiamouFW280.000.001−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Halkett and Baningime: 4 passesBaningime and Woodburn: 4 passesGinnelly and Woodburn: 4 passesMcKay and Woodburn: 5 passesSouttar and McKay: 6 passesMoore and Baningime: 6 passesMoore and Ginnelly: 6 passesBaningime and McKay: 6 passesGordon and Halkett: 7 passesHalkett and Moore: 7 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 7 passesCochrane and Devlin: 8 passesDevlin and Woodburn: 8 passesKingsley and Woodburn: 9 passesHalkett and Devlin: 9 passesDevlin and McKay: 9 passesMoore and Devlin: 11 passesCochrane and Woodburn: 11 passesMoore and McKay: 12 passesKingsley and Devlin: 14 passesKingsley and Halkett: 16 passesSouttar and Moore: 17 passesSouttar and Devlin: 17 passesSouttar and Halkett: 20 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 24 passesGordon: 8 completed passesKingsley: 39 completed passesSouttar: 38 completed passesHalkett: 40 completed passesMoore: 32 completed passesCochrane: 31 completed passesDevlin: 43 completed passesBaningime: 15 completed passesMcKay: 20 completed passesGinnelly: 7 completed passesWoodburn: 22 completed passes13419151714618309GordonKingsleySouttarHalkettMooreCochraneDevlinBaningimeMcKayGinnellyWoodburnStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Dundee United

Freeman and Glass: 3 passesFreeman and Clark: 3 passesMulgrew and McMann: 3 passesMulgrew and Fuchs: 3 passesMulgrew and Harkes: 3 passesMulgrew and Clark: 3 passesMcMann and Fuchs: 3 passesPawlett and Clark: 3 passesEdwards and Clark: 4 passesMulgrew and Glass: 4 passesFreeman and Harkes: 5 passesPawlett and Harkes: 5 passesFuchs and Glass: 5 passesFreeman and Edwards: 6 passesFreeman and Pawlett: 6 passesEdwards and Mulgrew: 6 passesEdwards and Harkes: 6 passesSiegrist and Edwards: 8 passesSiegrist: 9 completed passesFreeman: 13 completed passesEdwards: 18 completed passesMulgrew: 13 completed passesMcMann: 8 completed passesPawlett: 8 completed passesFuchs: 8 completed passesHarkes: 16 completed passesGlass: 12 completed passesNiskanen: 3 completed passesClark: 8 completed passes122124338662321710SiegristFreemanEdwardsMulgrewMcMannPawlettFuchsHarkesGlassNiskanenClarkStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneKingsley16
SouttarMoore13
KingsleyCochrane13
DevlinSouttar12
DevlinMoore12

Dundee United

FromToPasses
HarkesFreeman8
HarkesEdwards7
EdwardsSiegrist7
HarkesFuchs7
McMannEdwards7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−0.95+0.16−3.450.02−3.28+3.28+1.79+1.89+4.05−1.76−0.27+1.46+0.411+4.85+0.24−1.04+0.94+0.64+0.94−0.20−2.83+1.28+6.72+0.11−1.80−0.20−0.60−0.80−0.30−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Dundee United

4−0.58+3.117−0.29+1.29+2.88+3.211+5.48+0.87+2.28+2.94−0.17+0.73−3.37+2.33−0.61−1.89+6.110+6.31−1.52+0.73+1.70−1.51−2.00−1.11+0.80−0.70−0.60−1.12−5.62−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.040.010.100.010.030.080.040.020.030.040.020.020.180.040.060.090.110.090.090.060.060.10−0.23−0.100.27LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.030.050.010.010.010.010.03−0.010.030.020.03−0.010.040.030.010.09−0.01−0.01−0.010.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackHearts1.23 → 1.32Dundee United0.94 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.10 → 1.14Dundee United1.23 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six92%96%+4
Dundee United
Top six63%57%−6
11th2%2%0
Bottom<1%1%+1
St. Mirren
Top six19%21%+2
11th11%10%−1
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (6 November 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsDundee United
Expected goals1.400.85
Win49%22%
Expected Points1.760.95
Clean sheet43%25%

Hearts 49%Draw 29%Dundee United 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%1%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%1%11%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 November 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawDundee United win
Hearts
Top six92%96%91%86%
Dundee United
Top six63%57%65%75%
11th2%2%1%1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six19%21%17%17%
11th11%10%11%11%
Bottom4%4%5%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–230 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.95–1.11
  2. D1–127 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.94–1.22
  3. D1–123 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.49–0.52
  4. D1–116 OctRangers (A)xG 0.49–3.34
  5. W2–02 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.16–1.12
  6. W3–025 SepLivingston (H)xG 2.43–0.12

Dundee United

  1. L0–130 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.84–0.33
  2. D1–127 OctLivingston (A)xG 1.83–0.34
  3. W2–123 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.83–1.38
  4. W3–016 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.73–0.41
  5. W1–02 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.26–0.90
  6. D1–126 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.98–2.65

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee United
Position3rd4th
Played1212
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠6–⁠16–⁠3–⁠3
Points21 (1.75 per game)21 (1.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.601.38
Goals18–⁠1011–⁠8
xG per game1.35–⁠1.091.01–⁠1.01
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.65–⁠0.812.00, 0.93–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.05–⁠1.371.50, 1.09–⁠0.94
ManagerRobbie Neilson (12)Tam Courts (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackHearts1.23, 4thDundee United0.94, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.10, 5thDundee United1.23, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.23Dundee United attack: 0.941.230.94Dundee UnitedHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.10Dundee United defence: 1.231.231.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%−6%−1%−29%
Counter-attacks−38%−38%+89%−44%
Set pieces+7%+21%−37%+10%
Penalties+184%−100%−100%−5%
Headers−31%−28%+8%+19%
Left side+17%−6%−3%−8%
Centre−33%−9%+15%−11%
Right side+2%+27%−59%−48%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side+17%−48%Centre−33%−11%Right side+2%−8%Open play−19%−29%Counter-attacks−38%−44%Set pieces+7%+10%Headers−31%+19%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−3%+27%Centre+15%−9%Right side−59%−6%Open play−1%−6%Counter-attacks+89%−38%Set pieces−37%+21%Headers+8%−28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee United

1.35xG1.01
1.09xG against1.01
55%Possession48%
12.2Shots11.2
12.3Shots against11.8
3.8Shots on target4.4
1.3Big chances1.5
22.2Touches in the opposition box16.3
450Passes381
77%Pass accuracy70%
5.3Corners4.9
55%Field tilt49%
45.0Final-third entries36.5
11.9Box entries8.1
12.9Passes per defensive action13.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.640.98
Ahead321.111.00
Behind100.701.90

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level560.911.14
Ahead180.621.18
Behind161.820.39

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.173–2
16–300.180.123–0
31–450.390.205–2
46–600.290.151–2
61–750.180.123–2
76–900.130.333–2

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.160–0
16–300.110.141–3
31–450.270.224–2
46–600.180.112–1
61–750.180.192–1
76–900.180.192–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 12Souttar 10Moore 3Halkett 12Kingsley 8Cochrane 3Smith 11McKay 1Baningime 12Woodburn 1Devlin 6Haring 4Halliday 1Cochrane 7Halliday 4Kingsley 1Ginnelly 5McKay 4Woodburn 2Boyce 10Gnanduillet 2Mackay-Steven 6Woodburn 4Gnanduillet 13-4-3 in 8 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTSiegrist 9Carson 3Freeman 5Smith 5Smith 2Edwards 11Smith 1Mulgrew 11Reynolds 1McMann 8Robson 4Pawlett 5Chalmers 2Niskanen 2Fuchs 10Levitt 6Butcher 4Clark 3Harkes 10Niskanen 5Pawlett 4Sporle 2Clark 7McNulty 4Shankland 14-5-1 in 4 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 August 2021Dundee United0–2HeartsxG 0.40–2.25

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Dundee United won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–0 and xG 2.25–0.40 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce10842610.660.05
McKay6548010.150.29
Mackay-Steven7552120.360.05
Smith11966110.040.15

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Pawlett10882200.210.18
Niskanen7569130.100.22
Clark10803110.200.12
Harkes10937220.180.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.