Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Rangers 1–0 Hearts

Wednesday 9 November 2022, 19:45 · Ibrox Stadium · Round 15 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 48,376

Rangers Tillman 66'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

RangersHearts
Goals10
xG1.820.50
Expected Points2.330.46

Rangers 70%Draw 22%Hearts 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 17%. Final score 1–0, 17%.

Hearts goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+9%4%11%2%10%2%10%6%1%4%2%1%17%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTArfield on for Sands, 46'Wright on for Matondo, 61'Morelos on for Colak, 67'Kamara on for Tillman, 85'McKay on for Halliday, 55'Forrest on for Atkinson, 67'Kiomourtzoglou on for Devlin and Henderson on for Ginnelly, 77'Tillman 66'Rangers 1.82Hearts 0.5000.511.520153045607590HTArfield on for Sands, 46'Wright on for Matondo, 61'Morelos on for Colak, 67'Kamara on for Tillman, 85'McKay on for Halliday, 55'Forrest on for Atkinson, 67'Kiomourtzoglou on for Devlin and Henderson on for Ginnelly, 77'Tillman 66'1.820.50RangersHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

RangersHearts

1.82 −0.14xG0.50 −0.98
1.23 −0.79xG on target0.00 −1.39
17 −4Shots7 −5
6 −0.4Shots on target0 −4.5
2 −1.3Big chances0 −2.0
38 −5Touches in the opposition box8 −12
54% −15Possession46% −4
523 −61Passes452 +48
81% −4Pass accuracy76% +3
86% +6Field tilt14% −33
74 +6Final-third entries17 −16
24 +1Box entries2 −9
13.4 +4.4Passes per defensive action19.2 +4.3
7 −1.5Corners5 +1.2
17 +2Tackles21 +3
10 +3.5Interceptions19 +9.8
13 +3Clearances27 +10
0 −1.3Saves5 +1.5
9 −2Fouls7 −3
2 −0.2Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Rangers

Morelos 74', 0.28 xGTillman 47', 0.24 xGColak 62', 0.17 xGLundstram 19', 0.15 xGColak 45', 0.14 xGColak 47', 0.14 xGColak 51', 0.09 xGColak 33', 0.07 xGColak 36', 0.07 xGKent 14', 0.05 xGMorelos 84', 0.05 xGSands 9', 0.04 xGColak 21', 0.04 xGTillman 56', 0.03 xGWright 65', 0.02 xGColak 58', 0.01 xGTillman 66', 0.23 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%1.56 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.56 xG, 1 goal9%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Rowles 70', 0.17 xGShankland 82', 0.08 xGHenderson 90+1', 0.06 xGAtkinson 43', 0.05 xGDevlin 71', 0.05 xGMcKay 70', 0.04 xGForrest 80', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.25 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals22%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals28%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

RangersHearts

1.56 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
0.26 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (73%) · Rangers 1.49, Hearts 0.04 xG
Rangers ahead
25 min (27%) · Rangers 0.33, Hearts 0.45 xG

Line-ups

123826314191771149McGregorTavernierKingDaviesBarisicLundstramSandsMatondoTillmanKentColakYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card46'61'85'67'Rangers 4-2-3-1Giovanni van Bronckhorst1221151914771291630GordonM. SmithSibbickRowlesCochraneDevlinSnodgrassAtkinsonShanklandHallidayGinnellyYellow card77'67'55'77'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Arfield for Sands
  • 61' Wright for Matondo
  • 67' Morelos for Colak
  • 85' Kamara for Tillman

Hearts substitutes

  • 55' McKay for Halliday
  • 67' Forrest for Atkinson
  • 77' Kiomourtzoglou for Devlin
  • 77' Henderson for Ginnelly

Players

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0103
TavernierRB900.000.3440.10136
King CB900.000.0300.16167
DaviesCB900.000.0200.1484
Barisic LB9010.000.2220.19112
LundstramDM900.150.020−0.0225
SandsDM460.040.0300.1454
MatondoRW610.000.0400.0961
TillmanAM8510.500.6240.4176
Kent LW900.050.3420.3481
ColakST670.720.020−0.0300
ArfieldMF440.000.101−0.0541
WrightFW290.020.1700.2331
MorelosFW230.330.1800.0912
KamaraMF50.000.0000.0120

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0230
M. SmithRB900.000.1010.2358
SibbickCB900.000.0000.0438
RowlesCB900.170.0000.02120
CochraneLB900.000.0000.0439
DevlinDM770.050.000−0.0106
SnodgrassDM900.000.080−0.0315
AtkinsonRW670.050.0100.0127
ShanklandAM900.080.010−0.1121
Halliday LW550.000.0000.0003
GinnellyST770.000.0000.0210
McKayFW350.040.142−0.0900
ForrestMF230.040.0000.0131
KiomourtzoglouMF130.000.0000.0004
HendersonFW130.060.0000.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Rangers

Tavernier and Colak: 4 passesKing and Tillman: 4 passesBarisic and Sands: 4 passesTillman and Colak: 4 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 5 passesDavies and Sands: 5 passesKing and Barisic: 5 passesLundstram and Kent: 5 passesMcGregor and King: 6 passesTavernier and Davies: 6 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 6 passesTillman and Kent: 6 passesTavernier and Sands: 7 passesDavies and Kent: 7 passesBarisic and Tillman: 7 passesLundstram and Matondo: 7 passesTavernier and Matondo: 8 passesKing and Sands: 8 passesSands and Kent: 8 passesTavernier and King: 14 passesBarisic and Kent: 21 passesDavies and King: 23 passesDavies and Barisic: 28 passesMcGregor: 7 completed passesTavernier: 29 completed passesDavies: 42 completed passesKing: 40 completed passesBarisic: 38 completed passesSands: 21 completed passesLundstram: 14 completed passesMatondo: 8 completed passesTillman: 12 completed passesKent: 22 completed passesColak: 7 completed passes122638311941771149McGregorTavernierDaviesKingBarisicSandsLundstramMatondoTillmanKentColakStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

M. Smith and Ginnelly: 4 passesRowles and Halliday: 4 passesCochrane and Shankland: 4 passesDevlin and Atkinson: 4 passesSnodgrass and Atkinson: 4 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 4 passesDevlin and Halliday: 5 passesCochrane and Devlin: 6 passesGordon and Sibbick: 8 passesM. Smith and Snodgrass: 8 passesSnodgrass and Halliday: 9 passesM. Smith and Atkinson: 10 passesCochrane and Halliday: 10 passesGordon and Rowles: 11 passesRowles and Cochrane: 11 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 11 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 11 passesM. Smith and Shankland: 12 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 12 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 12 passesM. Smith and Sibbick: 17 passesGordon: 15 completed passesM. Smith: 32 completed passesRowles: 23 completed passesSibbick: 22 completed passesCochrane: 22 completed passesDevlin: 20 completed passesSnodgrass: 37 completed passesAtkinson: 14 completed passesShankland: 11 completed passesHalliday: 16 completed passesGinnelly: 5 completed passes1215211914771291630GordonM. SmithRowlesSibbickCochraneDevlinSnodgrassAtkinsonShanklandHallidayGinnellyStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Rangers

FromToPasses
DaviesBarisic25
KingDavies23
BarisicKent20
BarisicDavies16
DaviesKing15

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane14
SibbickM. Smith12
M. SmithShankland11
M. SmithSibbick11
RowlesSnodgrass11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Rangers

3−0.96+2.112+5.74−0.44+0.24−2.41−4.74+0.54−1.24−1.87+1.89+4.83−0.18+1.58+2.910+5.610+6.310+6.610+5.66+1.78+4.82−0.65+3.52−0.18+5.44+3.20−0.80−0.80−0.61+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Hearts

11+6.38+1.522+10.110+3.98+4.210+2.217+11.110+3.918+9.810+2.89+3.56+1.23−0.77+1.64−1.34−0.13−0.32−0.72−0.63−1.72−1.80−1.91+0.21−0.23+0.90−0.50−0.41+0.50−0.12+1.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Rangers

0.010.020.020.030.010.010.070.050.050.040.040.010.110.070.040.080.050.150.090.070.110.120.050.010.230.28LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.040.020.010.010.010.02−0.01−0.010.010.03−0.01−0.010.02−0.010.020.020.01−0.22−0.010.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackRangers2.06 → 2.06Hearts1.25 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Rangers0.68 → 0.67Hearts1.30 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title13%14%+1
Hearts
Top six82%81%−1
Celtic
Title87%86%−1

From the forecast before the match (9 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

RangersHearts
Expected goals2.630.63
Win80%6%
Expected Points2.530.33
Clean sheet53%7%

Rangers 80%Draw 14%Hearts 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 13%. Both sides score 44%.

Hearts goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+4%2%7%2%8%3%7%2%8%5%2%4%3%3%2%10%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRangers winDrawHearts win
Rangers
Title13%14%8%5%
Hearts
Top six82%81%86%92%
Celtic
Title87%86%92%95%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Rangers

  1. L1–26 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.37–0.81
  2. W4–129 OctAberdeen (H)xG 4.47–0.42
  3. D1–122 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.56–0.33
  4. W2–116 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.16–0.17
  5. W4–08 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.73–0.37
  6. W4–01 OctHearts (A)xG 1.85–0.41

Hearts

  1. W3–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 2.61–2.25
  2. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44
  3. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82
  4. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73
  5. D2–29 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.17–1.68
  6. L0–41 OctRangers (H)xG 0.41–1.85

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

RangersHearts
Position2nd5th
Played1313
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠2–⁠26–⁠2–⁠5
Points29 (2.23 per game)20 (1.54 per game)
Expected Points per game2.231.16
Goals32–⁠1323–⁠23
xG per game1.96–⁠0.581.48–⁠1.80
Home: points, xG per game2.71, 2.51–⁠0.412.00, 2.04–⁠1.74
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 1.31–⁠0.771.14, 1.01–⁠1.85
ManagerGiovanni van Bronckhorst (38)Robbie Neilson (51)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackRangers2.06, 2ndHearts1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Rangers0.68, 2ndHearts1.30, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovRangers attack: 2.06Hearts attack: 1.252.061.25HeartsRangersDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovRangers defence: 0.68Hearts defence: 1.301.300.68

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

RangersHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+71%−48%+21%+62%
Counter-attacks−33%−95%−61%−51%
Set pieces+17%−48%−23%+12%
Penalties+28%−100%+70%−15%
Headers+45%−57%−19%+37%
Left side+79%−31%+5%+31%
Centre+25%−55%+11%+63%
Right side+77%−62%+7%+37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+79%+37%Centre+25%+63%Right side+77%+31%Open play+71%+62%Counter-attacks−33%−51%Set pieces+17%+12%Headers+45%+37%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side+5%−62%Centre+11%−55%Right side+7%−31%Open play+21%−48%Counter-attacks−61%−95%Set pieces−23%−48%Headers−19%−57%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

RangersHearts

1.96xG1.48
0.58xG against1.80
69%Possession50%
20.5Shots12.2
7.5Shots against14.5
6.4Shots on target4.5
3.3Big chances2.0
43.2Touches in the opposition box20.2
584Passes404
85%Pass accuracy74%
8.5Corners3.8
80%Field tilt47%
67.8Final-third entries32.7
22.6Box entries10.6
9.0Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level252.600.48
Ahead422.000.50
Behind221.140.83

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level312.341.67
Ahead311.042.20
Behind271.011.49

xG by period

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.350.073–3
16–300.280.094–1
31–450.350.104–3
46–600.350.126–2
61–750.210.066–1
76–900.420.149–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.212–5
16–300.230.184–2
31–450.330.283–0
46–600.200.345–5
61–750.200.343–3
76–900.280.456–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcGregor 7McLaughlin 6Tavernier 13Goldson 9King 5Davies 7Sands 4Souttar 1Barisic 11Yilmaz 2Lundstram 13Arfield 1Kamara 1Jack 4Davis 3Sands 2Wright 4Sakala 3Matondo 3Tillman 5Lawrence 3Arfield 2Kent 10Matondo 2Tillman 1Colak 134-2-3-1 in 11 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-3-3 (2)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 12Stewart 1M. Smith 8Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Sibbick 5Neilson 4Halkett 3Kingsley 6Rowles 5Cochrane 3Cochrane 8Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 7Halliday 4Haring 4Snodgrass 5Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 4Forrest 4McKay 2Boyce 3Grant 2McKay 2McKay 7Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 8Humphrys 3Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 October 2022Hearts0–4RangersxG 0.41–1.85
14 May 2022Hearts1–3RangersxG 0.62–1.22
6 February 2022Rangers5–0HeartsxG 4.76–0.57
12 December 2021Hearts0–2RangersxG 1.00–1.86
16 October 2021Rangers1–1HeartsxG 3.34–0.49

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Rangers won 4, Hearts won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 15–2 and xG 2.61–0.62 per game.

Key players

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Colak139881100.580.09
Tavernier131,170550.290.28
Arfield5575210.260.23
Tillman8686220.320.12

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland9892920.770.06
Ginnelly5455120.110.25
Forrest8685300.280.07
Snodgrass5512030.070.27

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.