Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 0–4 Rangers

Saturday 1 October 2022, 12:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 9 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 18,433

Hearts Devlin sent off 39'

Rangers Colak 6', 30', Morelos 76', Kent 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRangers
Goals04
xG0.411.85
Expected Points0.402.40

Hearts 6%Draw 21%Rangers 73%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 0–4, 5%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%11%5%1%4%10%9%5%2%1%1%19%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDevlin (Hearts), red card 39'Haring on for Forrest, 44'Halliday on for Kingsley and Snodgrass on for McKay, 46'Grant on for Kiomourtzoglou and Ginnelly on for Shankland, 61'Davis on for Jack and Sands on for Davies, 46'Morelos on for Colak and Tillman on for Arfield, 63'Sakala on for Matondo, 79'Colak 6'Colak 30'Morelos 76'Kent 90+1'Rangers 1.85Hearts 0.4100.511.520153045607590HTDevlin (Hearts), red card 39'Haring on for Forrest, 44'Halliday on for Kingsley and Snodgrass on for McKay, 46'Grant on for Kiomourtzoglou and Ginnelly on for Shankland, 61'Davis on for Jack and Sands on for Davies, 46'Morelos on for Colak and Tillman on for Arfield, 63'Sakala on for Matondo, 79'Colak 6'Colak 30'Morelos 76'Kent 90+1'1.850.41HeartsRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRangers

0.41 −1.04xG1.85 +0.09
0.03 −1.34xG on target2.21 +0.31
7 −5Shots20 +1
1 −3.9Shots on target7 +1.1
1 −1.3Big chances3 −0.1
10 −10Touches in the opposition box40
34% −17Possession66% −2
286 −126Passes566 −42
71% −2Pass accuracy86% 0
27% −22Field tilt73% −3
24 −12Final-third entries48 −21
4 −8Box entries21 0
17.9 +2.3Passes per defensive action8.1 −0.9
5 +0.7Corners7 +0.4
20 +3Tackles18 +3
11 +3.3Interceptions6 −1.1
12 −4.3Clearances11 +2.1
3 −0.4Saves1 −0.6
11 0Fouls12 +1
1 +0.1Offsides5 +2.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Halliday 48', 0.21 xGShankland 28', 0.05 xGHumphrys 10', 0.04 xGGinnelly 73', 0.04 xGGinnelly 86', 0.03 xGShankland 2', 0.02 xGHumphrys 17', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals56%0.23 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals12%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals32%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Morelos 89', 0.27 xGTillman 83', 0.16 xGMatondo 36', 0.13 xGKent 52', 0.12 xGArfield 20', 0.09 xGMorelos 83', 0.09 xGArfield 49', 0.08 xGKent 57', 0.07 xGDavis 53', 0.06 xGDavies 4', 0.05 xGLundstram 61', 0.04 xGMorelos 70', 0.04 xGBarisic 78', 0.04 xGSakala 82', 0.04 xGDavies 4', 0.03 xGTavernier 59', 0.03 xGMorelos 76', 0.18 xG, goalColak 30', 0.16 xG, goalKent 90+1', 0.10 xG, goalColak 6', 0.06 xG, goal4%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals53%0.99 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.99 xG, 2 goals34%0.63 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.63 xG, 2 goals9%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRangers

0.15 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.71 17 shots, 4 goals
0.26 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (7%) · Hearts 0.02, Rangers 0.14 xG
Rangers ahead
86 min (93%) · Hearts 0.39, Rangers 1.71 xG

Line-ups

12203192981417189GordonSmithNeilsonKingsleyCochraneHumphrysKiomourtzoglouDevlinForrestMcKayShanklandYellow cardSent off46'61'44'46'61'Hearts 4-4-1-1Robbie Neilson1262631841737149McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicJackLundstramMatondoArfieldKentColakYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal46'46'79'63'63'Rangers 4-2-3-1Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Hearts substitutes

  • 44' Haring for Forrest
  • 46' Halliday for Kingsley
  • 46' Snodgrass for McKay
  • 61' Grant for Kiomourtzoglou
  • 61' Ginnelly for Shankland

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Sands for Davies
  • 46' Davis for Jack
  • 63' Tillman for Arfield · 1 assist
  • 63' Morelos for Colak · goal 76'
  • 79' Sakala for Matondo

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
SmithRB900.000.0410.1267
NeilsonCB900.000.0100.0452
KingsleyCB460.000.0510.0111
CochraneLB900.000.0110.06910
Humphrys RM900.060.0310.0972
KiomourtzoglouCM610.000.0000.0004
Devlin CM390.000.0100.0011
ForrestLM440.000.0100.0122
McKayAM460.000.0000.0001
ShanklandST610.070.011−0.0312
HaringMF460.000.0000.0016
HallidayMF440.210.0000.0125
SnodgrassMF440.000.1020.0101
GrantMF290.000.0000.0025
GinnellyFW290.060.010−0.0100

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0110
Tavernier RB9010.030.1840.0781
GoldsonCB900.000.0300.0959
Davies CB460.080.0000.0233
BarisicLB900.040.3300.2151
JackDM460.000.2210.0733
LundstramDM900.040.1100.1875
MatondoRW7910.130.1620.0752
ArfieldAM630.170.021−0.0103
KentLW90110.290.1320.2192
ColakST6320.230.0100.0113
SandsMF440.000.0100.0731
DavisMF440.060.0610.0640
TillmanMF2710.160.0220.0002
MorelosFW2710.580.0610.0822
SakalaFW110.040.6520.3420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Kingsley: 3 passesSmith and Neilson: 3 passesSmith and Kingsley: 3 passesNeilson and Kingsley: 3 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 3 passesKingsley and Devlin: 3 passesHumphrys and Devlin: 3 passesDevlin and Kiomourtzoglou: 3 passesDevlin and McKay: 3 passesKiomourtzoglou and Forrest: 3 passesHumphrys and Shankland: 4 passesCochrane and Kiomourtzoglou: 5 passesCochrane and Shankland: 5 passesDevlin and Forrest: 5 passesSmith and Humphrys: 6 passesSmith and Shankland: 6 passesGordon and Neilson: 7 passesNeilson and Humphrys: 7 passesCochrane and Forrest: 7 passesGordon: 5 completed passesSmith: 17 completed passesNeilson: 16 completed passesKingsley: 10 completed passesCochrane: 14 completed passesHumphrys: 9 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 7 completed passesForrest: 8 completed passesMcKay: 6 completed passesShankland: 11 completed passes12203192914817189GordonSmithNeilsonKingsleyCochraneHumphrysDevlinKiomourtzoglouForrestMcKayShanklandStarters until 39' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Goldson and Barisic: 3 passesBarisic and Arfield: 3 passesBarisic and Colak: 3 passesLundstram and Jack: 3 passesMcGregor and Tavernier: 4 passesMcGregor and Barisic: 4 passesTavernier and Davies: 4 passesTavernier and Jack: 5 passesBarisic and Kent: 5 passesKent and Colak: 5 passesLundstram and Arfield: 6 passesArfield and Colak: 6 passesBarisic and Lundstram: 7 passesBarisic and Jack: 7 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 8 passesGoldson and Lundstram: 9 passesTavernier and Goldson: 10 passesDavies and Barisic: 10 passesMcGregor and Davies: 11 passesTavernier and Matondo: 11 passesMcGregor and Goldson: 13 passesDavies and Goldson: 19 passesMcGregor: 18 completed passesTavernier: 31 completed passesDavies: 27 completed passesGoldson: 30 completed passesBarisic: 22 completed passesLundstram: 22 completed passesJack: 13 completed passesMatondo: 5 completed passesArfield: 9 completed passesKent: 8 completed passesColak: 9 completed passes1226631481737149McGregorTavernierDaviesGoldsonBarisicLundstramJackMatondoArfieldKentColakStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
NeilsonHumphrys7
SmithShankland7
SmithHumphrys6
ShanklandHumphrys5
HumphrysSmith5

Rangers

FromToPasses
TavernierGoldson19
LundstramBarisic18
BarisicLundstram16
SandsGoldson15
TavernierLundstram14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−3.96−0.715+4.34−1.91−2.19+0.14−2.412+5.99+1.15−1.77+2.33−3.34+1.711+6.16+1.94+0.430.06+3.67+2.11−2.12+1.00−0.70−1.61−1.30−0.41+0.71+0.30−0.30−0.11−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Rangers

2−0.92−2.45−1.110+4.96+3.35−0.45−0.45+2.09+4.63−2.36+0.611+7.95+1.98+2.66+0.67+2.67+3.62−2.43−1.35+1.63−0.71−1.90−2.13+1.03+0.70−0.90−0.92+1.00−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.010.030.050.05−0.030.030.01−0.01−0.01−0.01−0.020.020.12LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.030.010.040.020.030.020.010.060.030.060.080.060.050.030.14−0.010.120.160.010.130.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.22 → 1.20Rangers1.98 → 2.01Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.20 → 1.23Rangers0.68 → 0.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six85%83%−2
11th<1%1%+1
Rangers
Title27%31%+4
Celtic
Title73%69%−4

From the forecast before the match (1 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals0.841.80
Win17%60%
Expected Points0.742.03
Clean sheet16%43%

Hearts 17%Draw 24%Rangers 60%

Most likely score 0–1, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%4%2%1%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRangers win
Hearts
Top six85%92%86%83%
11th<1%–<1%1%
Rangers
Title27%19%23%31%
Celtic
Title73%81%77%69%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W3–018 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.83
  2. L0–13 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.69–1.19
  3. W3–228 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.74–0.77
  4. L0–221 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.55
  5. W4–114 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.80–1.21
  6. D1–17 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.96–1.50

Rangers

  1. W2–117 SepDundee United (H)xG 1.51–0.59
  2. L0–43 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.88
  3. W4–027 AugRoss County (H)xG 3.19–0.48
  4. D2–220 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.57–0.77
  5. W4–013 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.32–0.33
  6. W2–06 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.77–0.37

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position3rd2nd
Played77
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠1–⁠25–⁠1–⁠1
Points13 (1.86 per game)16 (2.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.262.07
Goals13–⁠816–⁠8
xG per game1.45–⁠1.661.76–⁠0.71
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.11–⁠1.173.00, 2.20–⁠0.44
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.96–⁠2.021.33, 1.17–⁠1.07
ManagerRobbie Neilson (45)Giovanni van Bronckhorst (32)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.22, 3rdRangers1.98, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.20, 5thRangers0.68, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepHearts attack: 1.22Rangers attack: 1.981.981.22RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepHearts defence: 1.20Rangers defence: 0.681.200.68

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+32%+41%+63%−38%
Counter-attacks−79%−24%−38%−100%
Set pieces−34%+5%−28%−36%
Penaltiesaverageaverageaverage−100%
Headers−28%+33%+53%−57%
Left side+5%+27%+49%average
Centre+24%+37%+32%−55%
Right side+4%+23%+39%−58%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side+5%−58%Centre+24%−55%Right side+4%averageOpen play+32%−38%Counter-attacks−79%−100%Set pieces−34%−36%Headers−28%−57%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+49%+23%Centre+32%+37%Right side+39%+27%Open play+63%+41%Counter-attacks−38%−24%Set pieces−28%+5%Headers+53%+33%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

1.45xG1.76
1.66xG against0.71
51%Possession68%
12.4Shots18.7
13.6Shots against8.0
4.9Shots on target5.9
2.3Big chances3.1
412Passes608
72%Pass accuracy86%
4.3Corners6.6
49%Field tilt76%
36.5Final-third entries69.3
11.6Box entries21.0
15.6Passes per defensive action9.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.591.20
Ahead421.271.94
Behind230.511.66

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.430.45
Ahead431.720.62
Behind211.011.22

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.161–2
16–300.220.213–1
31–450.290.261–0
46–600.240.263–1
61–750.130.381–1
76–900.340.394–3

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.310.071–2
16–300.210.111–0
31–450.400.143–2
46–600.340.104–2
61–750.190.073–0
76–900.310.224–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 6Stewart 1Smith 4Sibbick 2Atkinson 1Neilson 3Halkett 3Sibbick 1Rowles 5Kingsley 2Cochrane 6Halliday 1Devlin 4Halliday 3Haring 4Grant 2Smith 1Forrest 4McKay 2Ginnelly 1Boyce 3Atkinson 2Kiomourtzoglou 1McKay 3Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 1Shankland 4Humphrys 1Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-3 (2)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcLaughlin 6McGregor 1Tavernier 7Goldson 7Sands 4King 1Davies 1Barisic 6Yilmaz 1Lundstram 7Davis 2Kamara 1Jack 2Tillman 1Lawrence 1Wright 4Arfield 1Tillman 1Lawrence 3Jack 1McCann 1Kent 5Tillman 1Matondo 1Colak 74-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-3-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 May 2022Hearts1–3RangersxG 0.62–1.22
6 February 2022Rangers5–0HeartsxG 4.76–0.57
12 December 2021Hearts0–2RangersxG 1.00–1.86
16 October 2021Rangers1–1HeartsxG 3.34–0.49

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Rangers won 3, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–11 and xG 0.67–2.80 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McKay5488210.140.20
Smith5453000.110.07
Haring4459000.030.06
Cochrane6474020.010.07

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Colak7506600.590.12
Tavernier7630230.230.29
Barisic6567020.030.28
Lundstram7605100.120.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.