Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Motherwell 1–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 10 April 2021, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 34 · Half-time 0–0

Motherwell Cole 62'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Goals10
xG1.951.45
Non-penalty xG1.950.67
Expected Points1.760.93

Motherwell 48%Draw 31%St. Mirren 20%

Most likely score 2–1, 18%. Final score 1–0, 3%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+2%1%3%9%3%4%13%4%2%9%6%2%2%1%16%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMaguire on for Lawless, 46'O'Hara on for Roberts, 54'Mugabi on for Long, 81'MacPherson on for Flynn, 46'Dennis on for Erwin and McAllister on for Erhahon, 73'Henderson on for Shaughnessy, 85'Cole 62'Motherwell 1.95St. Mirren 1.4501230153045607590HTMaguire on for Lawless, 46'O'Hara on for Roberts, 54'Mugabi on for Long, 81'MacPherson on for Flynn, 46'Dennis on for Erwin and McAllister on for Erhahon, 73'Henderson on for Shaughnessy, 85'Cole 62'1.951.45MotherwellSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.95 +0.83xG1.45 +0.40
1.95Non-penalty xG0.67
2.22 +1.27xG on target1.79 +0.87
11 0Shots15 +3
3 −0.3Shots on target7 +3.7
3 +1.7Big chances1 0.0
12 −7Touches in the opposition box17 0
36% −10Possession64% +17
262 −81Passes467 +111
61% −6Pass accuracy79% +13
28% −9Field tilt72% +29
24 −6Final-third entries63 +30
7 −2.5Box entries9 +1.1
16.4 +2Passes per defensive action12.7 −2
5 0.0Corners4 −1.0
15 +1Tackles14 +1
16 +6Interceptions7 −4
31 +8Clearances19 −1
7 +4.2Saves2 −1.1
14 +2Fouls6 −6
0 −2.0Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Long 25', 0.37 xGCampbell 71', 0.33 xGCole 2', 0.12 xGCole 79', 0.06 xGCampbell 25', 0.04 xGCole 45+1', 0.04 xGRoberts 28', 0.03 xGLawless 45+2', 0.03 xGCrawford 65', 0.03 xGLong 72', 0.03 xGCole 62', 0.88 xG, goal45%0.88 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.88 xG, 1 goal42%0.81 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals9%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Erwin 42', 0.08 xGMacPherson 75', 0.07 xGMcCarthy 4', 0.06 xGErwin 38', 0.06 xGDurmus 10', 0.05 xGMcCarthy 14', 0.05 xGErwin 43', 0.05 xGMacPherson 90+6', 0.05 xGMcGrath 6', 0.04 xGMcGrath 40', 0.04 xGConnolly 38', 0.03 xGDennis 89', 0.03 xGMcGrath 27', 0.02 xGMacPherson 68', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.32 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals32%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals12%0.08 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.89 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.40 8 shots, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
64 min (65%) · Motherwell 1.50, St. Mirren 1.28 xG
Motherwell ahead
34 min (35%) · Motherwell 0.44, St. Mirren 0.18 xG

Line-ups

13333145861444939KellyO'DonnellGallagherLamieMcGinleyCrawfordCampbellLawlessColeLongRobertsYellow cardGoal46'81'54'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander12254218257112317AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyConnollyFlynnErhahonDoyle-HayesDurmusErwinMcGrathYellow cardYellow cardYellow card85'46'73'73'St. Mirren 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Maguire for Lawless
  • 54' O'Hara for Roberts
  • 81' Mugabi for Long

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' MacPherson for Flynn
  • 73' Dennis for Erwin
  • 73' McAllister for Erhahon
  • 85' Henderson for Shaughnessy

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0100
O'DonnellRB900.000.0210.0757
GallagherCB900.000.0100.06511
LamieCB900.000.0000.03211
McGinleyLB900.000.1310.19413
CrawfordCM900.030.0100.0357
Campbell CM900.370.011−0.0402
LawlessCM460.030.000−0.0114
ColeRW9011.090.2620.0823
LongST810.390.0920.1460
RobertsLW540.030.0100.0110
MaguireMF440.000.0110.0103
O'HaraMF360.000.3000.0813
MugabiDF90.000.0000.0001

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0881
FraserCB900.000.0700.10610
McCarthy CB900.110.0210.0975
Shaughnessy CB850.000.0000.03211
ConnollyRWB900.030.2120.2171
FlynnCM460.000.2310.1720
Erhahon CM730.000.0100.0213
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.0200.0353
DurmusLWB900.050.0200.0450
ErwinST730.190.0420.0540
McGrathST900.890.1530.0372
MacPhersonMF440.150.0200.0423
DennisFW170.030.1510.0502
McAllisterFW170.000.0200.0221
HendersonFW50.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and McGinley: 3 passesO'Donnell and Crawford: 3 passesGallagher and Crawford: 3 passesCrawford and Campbell: 3 passesGallagher and Lamie: 4 passesGallagher and Roberts: 4 passesCrawford and Lawless: 4 passesKelly and Lamie: 5 passesO'Donnell and Roberts: 5 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 6 passesLamie and Crawford: 6 passesO'Donnell and Gallagher: 7 passesLamie and Lawless: 7 passesMcGinley and Lawless: 14 passesKelly: 7 completed passesO'Donnell: 17 completed passesGallagher: 13 completed passesLamie: 10 completed passesMcGinley: 14 completed passesCrawford: 11 completed passesLawless: 16 completed passesCampbell: 8 completed passesCole: 6 completed passesLong: 2 completed passesRoberts: 4 completed passes13333145814644939KellyO'DonnellGallagherLamieMcGinleyCrawfordLawlessCampbellColeLongRobertsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Erwin: 4 passesMcCarthy and Flynn: 4 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesConnolly and McGrath: 4 passesDurmus and Erwin: 4 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 5 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesShaughnessy and Erhahon: 5 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and McGrath: 5 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 6 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 6 passesDurmus and McGrath: 6 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 6 passesDurmus and Doyle-Hayes: 7 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 7 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erwin: 7 passesFraser and Connolly: 8 passesFraser and Flynn: 8 passesConnolly and Flynn: 9 passesAlnwick: 11 completed passesShaughnessy: 21 completed passesMcCarthy: 17 completed passesFraser: 23 completed passesConnolly: 11 completed passesDurmus: 13 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 19 completed passesFlynn: 16 completed passesErhahon: 15 completed passesMcGrath: 17 completed passesErwin: 13 completed passes14522211178251723AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserConnollyDurmusDoyle-HayesFlynnErhahonMcGrathErwinStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinleyLawless9
KellyLamie7
CampbellO'Donnell6
LawlessMcGinley5
CrawfordLamie5

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ShaughnessyAlnwick9
FraserConnolly9
McGrathDurmus8
McCarthyAlnwick8
McCarthyFraser8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

5+0.810+3.420+3.65−1.55−1.46−0.29+1.212+4.56+0.64−1.03−0.76+0.66+1.42−1.54+0.61−1.52−0.82−1.53+0.82−0.11+0.10−1.30−1.90−0.80−0.50−1.00−0.51+0.23−5.73−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

St. Mirren

4−1.25−0.48+1.72−3.67−0.73−5.011+3.56−2.26−0.92−3.03−3.24−0.27+1.76+0.25+0.81−2.51−1.74+0.66+1.51−1.02+0.63+1.80−1.71−1.310.00−0.21+0.21+0.61+0.37−6.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.010.030.030.020.020.030.04−0.010.09−0.01−0.020.100.070.17LessMore

St. Mirren

0.030.010.010.030.050.030.020.020.030.010.020.020.010.010.050.010.040.010.010.060.010.150.150.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackMotherwell1.04 → 1.05St. Mirren0.93 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.41 → 1.39St. Mirren1.16 → 1.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
11th1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (10 April 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.151.14
Win35%35%
Expected Points1.361.34
Clean sheet32%32%

Motherwell 35%Draw 30%St. Mirren 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Mirren goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%2%8%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%11%11%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 April 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawSt. Mirren win
Motherwell
11th1%<1%1%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L1–420 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 1.33–1.86
  2. W3–16 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.80–1.14
  3. W2–027 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.00–1.70
  4. D0–024 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.39–0.30
  5. L0–320 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.03–3.04
  6. L1–413 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.32–2.03

St. Mirren

  1. D1–120 MarHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.81–0.79
  2. L0–36 MarRangers (A)xG 0.21–1.50
  3. W1–027 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.41–1.91
  4. D0–024 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.30–1.39
  5. D1–120 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.71–0.29
  6. D1–117 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.74–1.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellSt. Mirren
Position9th7th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠8–⁠1610–⁠10–⁠13
Points35 (1.06 per game)40 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.21
Goals32–⁠5130–⁠38
xG per game1.12–⁠1.601.05–⁠1.24
Home: points, xG per game0.94, 1.10–⁠1.651.12, 1.08–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.18, 1.14–⁠1.561.31, 1.01–⁠1.27
ManagerGraham Alexander (13)Jim Goodwin (33)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackMotherwell1.04, 5thSt. Mirren0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.41, 10thSt. Mirren1.16, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell attack: 1.04St. Mirren attack: 0.931.040.93St. MirrenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell defence: 1.41St. Mirren defence: 1.161.411.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+12%−26%+8%
Counter-attacks−73%+144%−10%−64%
Set pieces+7%+33%−6%−4%
Penalties−10%+61%+7%−28%
Headers−5%+44%−29%+12%
Left side−19%+6%−8%−1%
Centre−8%+32%−22%−2%
Right side−9%+26%−27%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−19%+12%Centre−8%−2%Right side−9%−1%Open play−14%+8%Counter-attacks−73%−64%Set pieces+7%−4%Headers−5%+12%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededLeft side−8%+26%Centre−22%+32%Right side−27%+6%Open play−26%+12%Counter-attacks−10%+144%Set pieces−6%+33%Headers−29%+44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellSt. Mirren

1.12xG1.05
1.60xG against1.24
46%Possession47%
10.7Shots11.7
13.8Shots against12.2
3.3Shots on target3.3
1.3Big chances1.0
18.8Touches in the opposition box17.5
343Passes356
68%Pass accuracy66%
5.0Corners5.0
37%Field tilt43%
30.1Final-third entries32.8
9.5Box entries7.9
14.4Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.291.44
Ahead250.991.66
Behind291.031.74

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.051.13
Ahead181.311.26
Behind280.881.41

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.287–10
16–300.260.188–5
31–450.150.234–6
46–600.180.284–9
61–750.240.258–7
76–900.110.381–14

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.143–4
16–300.150.204–10
31–450.250.168–6
46–600.090.263–6
61–750.120.223–7
76–900.290.269–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWKelly 13Carson 12Chapman 4O'Donnell 28Grimshaw 2Johnston 1Gallagher 22Magloire 5O'Hara 4Mugabi 18Lamie 17Carroll 14Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Campbell 30Long 1Seedorf 1Crawford 16O'Hara 14Grimshaw 1Polworth 18Maguire 14Turnbull 2Long 6Seedorf 5Roberts 4Watt 13Cole 11Long 6Watt 15Lang 7Cole 64-3-3 in 22 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (22), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 29Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 24Tait 5Connolly 3McCarthy 32Shaughnessy 30Foley 3Tait 1Tait 20Durmus 7Obika 3McAllister 8Connolly 8McGrath 4McGrath 21MacPhers… 9MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 17Doyle-HayesFraser 3McAllister 2Erhahon 24Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 11Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 10Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 February 2021St. Mirren0–0MotherwellxG 0.30–1.39
9 January 2021St. Mirren1–1MotherwellxG 1.51–1.85
12 December 2020Motherwell0–1St. MirrenxG 1.78–1.08

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 0, St. Mirren won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.67–0.96 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole191,575830.510.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt282,308350.230.12
Polworth181,538030.070.23

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath302,451710.260.14
Morias7664000.250.09
Obika201,961510.290.05
Erwin131,211200.230.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.