Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Dundee United 4–0 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 9 November 2022, 19:45 · Tannadice Park · Round 15 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 7,430

Dundee United Freeman 11', McGrath 23', Middleton 29', Levitt 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Goals40
xG0.830.85
Expected Points1.301.32

Dundee United 31%Draw 37%Kilmarnock 32%

Most likely score 0–0, 18%. Final score 4–0, <1%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+6%1%6%1%6%6%3%1%1%18%15%16%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcMann on for Behich, 67'Anaku on for Fletcher, 75'Sibbald on for Djoum, 76'Niskanen on for Freeman and Meekison on for Middleton, 86'McKenzie on for Jones, Power on for Alston, and Cameron on for Alebiosu, 34'Murray on for Donnelly and Wales on for Doidge, 76'Freeman 11'McGrath 23'Middleton 29'Levitt 73'Kilmarnock 0.85Dundee United 0.8300.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcMann on for Behich, 67'Anaku on for Fletcher, 75'Sibbald on for Djoum, 76'Niskanen on for Freeman and Meekison on for Middleton, 86'McKenzie on for Jones, Power on for Alston, and Cameron on for Alebiosu, 34'Murray on for Donnelly and Wales on for Doidge, 76'Freeman 11'McGrath 23'Middleton 29'Levitt 73'0.850.83Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.83 −0.08xG0.85 −0.01
1.93 +1.06xG on target0.00 −0.62
7 −4Shots16 +5
6 +2.4Shots on target0 −3.1
2 +1.1Big chances0 −1.1
14 −7Touches in the opposition box24 +8
40% −6Possession60% +14
348 −19Passes513 +179
70% 0Pass accuracy80% +13
48% +3Field tilt52% +5
21 −17Final-third entries47 +14
9 −0.7Box entries6 −3.1
28.4 +12Passes per defensive action13.3 −1
3 −2.7Corners4 −1.1
19 +4Tackles16 0
6 −3.2Interceptions4 −7.4
22 −1Clearances15 −3
0 −3.5Saves2 −1.5
13 +3Fouls7 −6
0 −1.5Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Middleton 6', 0.21 xGMiddleton 23', 0.15 xGLevitt 63', 0.02 xGMcGrath 23', 0.18 xG, goalFreeman 11', 0.13 xG, goalLevitt 73', 0.09 xG, goalMiddleton 29', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals67%0.56 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.56 xG, 1 goal16%0.13 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 1 goal17%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Armstrong 80', 0.23 xGWright 36', 0.11 xGArmstrong 82', 0.09 xGMcKenzie 89', 0.07 xGCameron 48', 0.05 xGArmstrong 80', 0.05 xGArmstrong 53', 0.04 xGTaylor 86', 0.04 xGDoidge 9', 0.03 xGMcInroy 75', 0.03 xGMcInroy 5', 0.02 xGDonnelly 37', 0.02 xGTaylor 39', 0.02 xGMcInroy 56', 0.02 xGDoidge 60', 0.02 xGTaylor 69', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.60 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals15%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.75 5 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.64 10 shots, 0 goals
0.08 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.21 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
11 min (12%) · Dundee United 0.33, Kilmarnock 0.05 xG
Dundee United ahead
79 min (88%) · Dundee United 0.49, Kilmarnock 0.80 xG

Line-ups

121262210191618159BirighittiSmithEdwardsGrahamFreemanDjoumLevittBehichMcGrathMiddletonFletcherGoalGoalGoalGoal86'76'67'86'75'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox125192122825101126HemmingMayoTaylorWrightMcInroyDonnellyAlstonAlebiosuJonesArmstrongDoidgeYellow card76'34'34'34'76'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Dundee United substitutes

  • 67' McMann for Behich
  • 75' Anaku for Fletcher
  • 76' Sibbald for Djoum
  • 86' Niskanen for Freeman
  • 86' Meekison for Middleton

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 34' Power for Alston
  • 34' McKenzie for Jones
  • 34' Cameron for Alebiosu
  • 76' Murray for Donnelly
  • 76' Wales for Doidge

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BirighittiGK900.000.0000.0331
SmithCB900.000.0100.0336
EdwardsCB900.000.0000.01012
GrahamCB9010.000.0110.09106
FreemanRWB8610.130.0400.1083
DjoumCM760.000.0000.0006
LevittCM9010.110.0200.0533
BehichLWB670.000.0000.0135
McGrathAM90110.180.1020.0413
MiddletonAM8610.420.0400.0231
FletcherST750.000.0200.0225
McMannDF230.000.0000.0231
AnakuFW150.000.0000.0000
SibbaldMF140.000.000−0.0100
NiskanenDF40.000.0000.0000
MeekisonMF40.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0330
MayoRB900.000.0100.0454
TaylorCB900.070.0200.151211
WrightCB900.110.0010.0536
McInroyLB900.070.0400.0985
Donnelly RM760.020.0100.0023
AlstonCM340.000.0100.0111
AlebiosuCM340.000.0710.0722
JonesLM340.000.0010.0110
ArmstrongST900.410.0740.1074
DoidgeST760.050.011−0.0410
PowerMF560.000.0400.1280
McKenzieMF560.070.1910.0520
CameronFW560.050.010−0.0100
MurrayMF140.000.0620.1240
WalesFW140.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Birighitti and Smith: 4 passesBirighitti and Graham: 4 passesEdwards and Levitt: 4 passesSmith and Djoum: 5 passesSmith and Levitt: 5 passesFreeman and Levitt: 5 passesFreeman and Middleton: 5 passesBehich and Middleton: 5 passesLevitt and McGrath: 5 passesEdwards and Graham: 6 passesGraham and Behich: 6 passesMcGrath and Fletcher: 6 passesMiddleton and Fletcher: 6 passesGraham and Fletcher: 7 passesBehich and Levitt: 7 passesEdwards and Smith: 8 passesSmith and McGrath: 8 passesDjoum and McGrath: 8 passesSmith and Freeman: 9 passesGraham and Middleton: 9 passesGraham and Levitt: 11 passesFreeman and McGrath: 20 passesBirighitti: 11 completed passesEdwards: 10 completed passesSmith: 26 completed passesGraham: 32 completed passesFreeman: 21 completed passesBehich: 15 completed passesDjoum: 16 completed passesLevitt: 26 completed passesMcGrath: 25 completed passesMiddleton: 15 completed passesFletcher: 13 completed passes112262216101918159BirighittiEdwardsSmithGrahamFreemanBehichDjoumLevittMcGrathMiddletonFletcherStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Alebiosu: 3 passesTaylor and Alebiosu: 3 passesWright and Alston: 3 passesWright and Doidge: 3 passesMcInroy and Jones: 3 passesAlston and Alebiosu: 3 passesJones and Alebiosu: 3 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 3 passesMcInroy and Donnelly: 4 passesDonnelly and Armstrong: 4 passesTaylor and Donnelly: 5 passesMayo and Taylor: 7 passesTaylor and Armstrong: 7 passesWright and Donnelly: 7 passesWright and McInroy: 10 passesTaylor and Wright: 17 passesHemming: 4 completed passesMayo: 9 completed passesTaylor: 22 completed passesWright: 24 completed passesMcInroy: 9 completed passesAlston: 7 completed passesDonnelly: 11 completed passesJones: 5 completed passesAlebiosu: 8 completed passesArmstrong: 12 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passes125192182210251126HemmingMayoTaylorWrightMcInroyAlstonDonnellyJonesAlebiosuArmstrongDoidgeStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
McGrathFreeman13
LevittSmith9
SmithMcGrath9
FreemanMcGrath9
GrahamFletcher7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightTaylor27
TaylorWright18
WrightMcInroy17
McInroyWright13
TaylorArmstrong11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5+0.12−4.518+3.37+0.78+1.74−1.111+6.58+0.37+0.57+1.19+4.64−0.96+2.38+3.82−4.52−3.12−1.11−0.74+0.41−1.93+1.40−1.40−1.11−0.81−0.51+0.40−0.21+0.40−0.52+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Kilmarnock

4−1.11−5.412+0.13−4.811+5.78+1.35−0.82−4.95−1.12−5.43−3.93−2.42−2.35−0.12−3.42−3.16+2.11−1.812+8.19+4.81−1.51−0.21+0.43+0.92−0.72+0.50−0.90−0.50−0.61+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.020.02−0.010.020.020.050.010.030.010.040.020.020.01−0.01−0.020.020.08LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.020.030.010.030.010.020.030.010.040.070.010.010.030.020.090.06−0.02−0.010.010.01−0.020.120.090.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackDundee United0.98 → 1.00Kilmarnock0.97 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.43 → 1.42Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six2%3%+1
11th24%24%0
Bottom37%26%−11
Kilmarnock
Top six5%3%−2
11th22%24%+2
Bottom24%32%+8

From the forecast before the match (9 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.291.03
Win42%29%
Expected Points1.541.17
Clean sheet36%28%

Dundee United 42%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee United
Top six2%3%1%1%
11th24%24%25%25%
Bottom37%26%39%49%
Kilmarnock
Top six5%3%4%9%
11th22%24%22%18%
Bottom24%32%22%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. L2–45 NovCeltic (A)xG 1.05–3.07
  2. L0–129 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–0.92
  3. L1–222 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.70–1.29
  4. D1–115 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.64–0.35
  5. W1–011 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.56–1.31
  6. W4–08 OctAberdeen (H)xG 2.25–0.89

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–34 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.04–1.68
  2. L0–129 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.38–0.39
  3. W1–022 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.10–0.70
  4. D0–015 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.13–0.68
  5. D2–29 OctHearts (H)xG 1.68–1.17
  6. W2–15 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.87

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position12th11th
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠93–⁠3–⁠8
Points9 (0.64 per game)12 (0.86 per game)
Expected Points per game0.971.14
Goals13–⁠3011–⁠23
xG per game0.91–⁠1.760.86–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game0.86, 0.98–⁠1.731.57, 1.22–⁠1.26
Away: points, xG per game0.43, 0.85–⁠1.790.14, 0.51–⁠1.16
ManagerLiam Fox (9)Derek McInnes (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackDundee United0.98, 8thKilmarnock0.97, 9thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.43, 11thKilmarnock1.34, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDundee United attack: 0.98Kilmarnock attack: 0.970.980.97KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDundee United defence: 1.43Kilmarnock defence: 1.341.431.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%+46%−38%−14%
Counter-attacks−19%+253%−45%−44%
Set pieces−39%+17%+21%+34%
Penalties+19%−60%−100%−21%
Headers−50%+23%+5%−21%
Left side−19%+85%−10%−11%
Centre−39%+43%−31%−12%
Right side−45%+15%−29%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−19%+15%Centre−39%−12%Right side−45%−11%Open play−35%−14%Counter-attacks−19%−44%Set pieces−39%+34%Headers−50%−21%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−10%+15%Centre−31%+43%Right side−29%+85%Open play−38%+46%Counter-attacks−45%+253%Set pieces+21%+17%Headers+5%+23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.91xG0.86
1.76xG against1.21
46%Possession46%
10.6Shots11.1
15.6Shots against12.9
3.6Shots on target3.1
0.9Big chances1.1
20.8Touches in the opposition box16.1
367Passes334
71%Pass accuracy67%
5.7Corners5.1
44%Field tilt47%
37.7Final-third entries33.0
9.7Box entries9.1
16.1Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level360.661.85
Ahead120.971.29
Behind421.111.83

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.081.04
Ahead180.911.23
Behind390.661.35

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.282–5
16–300.070.200–1
31–450.180.413–8
46–600.110.342–7
61–750.230.203–1
76–900.160.333–8

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.192–4
16–300.150.182–3
31–450.190.251–5
46–600.250.123–1
61–750.090.211–4
76–900.100.252–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTEriksson 9Birighitti 5Freeman 7Smith 6Niskanen 1Smith 8Edwards 14Middleton 2Cudjoe 2McMann 6Graham 6Mulgrew 4Behich 7McMann 3Sibbald 2Harkes 8Behich 4Middleton 1McGrath 8Sibbald 6Mulgrew 1Levitt 11Djoum 2Watt 11Anaku 1Fletcher 8Middleton 5McGrath 35-3-2 in 3 of 14 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTHemming 8Walker 6Wright 10Shaw 2Jones 1Taylor 13Dorsett 2Mayo 8Stokes 4Alebiosu 10Mayo 3Armstrong 1Power 14Alston 3Armstrong 1Polworth 4Donnelly 3McInroy 1Chrisene 5McInroy 3Jones 2McKenzie 8Chrisene 2Polworth 1Armstrong 6Jones 4Shaw 3Lafferty 6Cameron 4Shaw 23-4-2-1 in 4 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 July 2022Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.24–0.38
21 April 2021Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.29–1.15
27 February 2021Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.25–1.02
23 December 2020Dundee United2–0KilmarnockxG 0.93–0.65
29 August 2020Kilmarnock4–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.15–1.04

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 1, Kilmarnock won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 4–9 and xG 0.90–1.32 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher8672310.470.10
Watt11890310.230.08
Middleton9795010.140.12
McGrath12997110.100.15

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong9855420.160.19
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones7582000.060.13
Lafferty8576100.180.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.