Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Dundee United 0–2 Hibernian

Saturday 30 January 2021, 15:00 · Tannadice Park · Round 25 · Half-time 0–1

Hibernian McGregor 21', Boyle 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Goals02
xG0.511.34
Expected Points0.662.05

Dundee United 12%Draw 29%Hibernian 58%

Most likely score 0–1, 22%. Final score 0–2, 16%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+14%16%6%1%7%13%9%3%2%3%2%22%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTPawlett on for Bolton, 67'Harkes on for Fuchs, 84'Magennis on for Murphy, 68'Wright on for Boyle, 89'McGregor 21'Boyle 69'Hibernian 1.34Dundee United 0.5100.511.50153045607590HTPawlett on for Bolton, 67'Harkes on for Fuchs, 84'Magennis on for Murphy, 68'Wright on for Boyle, 89'McGregor 21'Boyle 69'1.340.51Dundee UnitedHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.51 −0.37xG1.34 −0.10
0.25 −0.56xG on target1.17 −0.32
10 +1.0Shots12 +0.4
3 +0.4Shots on target5 +0.9
0 −1.1Big chances1 −0.8
23 +12Touches in the opposition box22 +2
62% +15Possession38% −12
522 +160Passes318 −74
70% +4Pass accuracy59% −13
56% +18Field tilt44% −2
37 +6Final-third entries30 −9
14 +6.7Box entries12 +1.6
10.7 −5Passes per defensive action14.6 +1
5 +0.9Corners5 −0.6
10 −4Tackles14 −1
14 +2Interceptions16 +6
16 −9Clearances35 +16
3 −0.4Saves3 +0.4
12 −1Fouls14 +1
4 +2.7Offsides3 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Bolton 26', 0.10 xGConnolly 57', 0.10 xGClark 4', 0.06 xGShankland 56', 0.05 xGClark 22', 0.04 xGPawlett 81', 0.04 xGShankland 86', 0.04 xGButcher 5', 0.03 xGShankland 88', 0.03 xGFuchs 52', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals69%0.35 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals8%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals18%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Gogic 9', 0.34 xGDoidge 53', 0.13 xGMcGinn 21', 0.08 xGMurphy 19', 0.07 xGIrvine 60', 0.07 xGBoyle 80', 0.06 xGDoidge 16', 0.05 xGMcGregor 9', 0.04 xGMurphy 17', 0.04 xGCadden 28', 0.03 xGBoyle 69', 0.39 xG, goalMcGregor 21', 0.05 xG, goal35%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals55%0.74 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.74 xG, 2 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.39 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.62 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.66 7 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
21 min (23%) · Dundee United 0.09, Hibernian 0.66 xG
Hibernian ahead
69 min (77%) · Dundee United 0.42, Hibernian 0.68 xG

Line-ups

12561791866201024SiegristSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonMcNultyButcherFuchsBoltonClarkShankland84'67'Dundee United 4-4-1-1Micky Mellon162442713362518910MarcianoMcGinnMcGregorHanlonCaddenGogicIrvineDoigMurphyDoidgeBoyleGoalYellow cardGoal68'89'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Jack Ross

Dundee United substitutes

  • 67' Pawlett for Bolton
  • 84' Harkes for Fuchs

Hibernian substitutes

  • 68' Magennis for Murphy
  • 89' Wright for Boyle

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SiegristGK900.000.0100.0111
SmithRB900.000.0910.29243
ConnollyCB900.100.0100.0444
ReynoldsCB900.000.0100.07811
RobsonLB900.000.0100.0326
McNultyRM900.000.030−0.0311
ButcherCM900.030.1020.1844
FuchsCM840.020.0300.1083
BoltonLM670.100.041−0.0232
ClarkAM900.100.161−0.0202
ShanklandST900.120.1310.0923
PawlettMF230.040.0000.0102
HarkesMF60.000.0000.0002

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0331
McGinnCB900.080.0210.05411
McGregor CB9010.080.0110.0369
HanlonCB900.000.0010.01216
CaddenRWB900.030.0810.22133
GogicCM900.340.0200.04413
IrvineCM9020.070.4940.0445
DoigLWB900.000.0100.0321
MurphyAM680.110.3720.2562
DoidgeST900.180.0000.0621
BoyleST8910.450.2120.0011
MagennisMF220.000.0000.0223
WrightDF10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Reynolds and Clark: 5 passesFuchs and Bolton: 5 passesButcher and Clark: 5 passesSiegrist and Reynolds: 6 passesSmith and Fuchs: 6 passesRobson and Shankland: 6 passesBolton and Shankland: 6 passesRobson and Fuchs: 7 passesMcNulty and Fuchs: 7 passesButcher and Bolton: 7 passesSiegrist and Connolly: 8 passesReynolds and Shankland: 8 passesSmith and Connolly: 9 passesSmith and Clark: 9 passesSmith and Shankland: 9 passesRobson and McNulty: 9 passesRobson and Bolton: 9 passesFuchs and Shankland: 9 passesButcher and Shankland: 9 passesSmith and Butcher: 10 passesConnolly and Reynolds: 12 passesReynolds and Robson: 12 passesRobson and Butcher: 13 passesSmith and McNulty: 19 passesSiegrist: 14 completed passesSmith: 36 completed passesConnolly: 23 completed passesReynolds: 29 completed passesRobson: 34 completed passesMcNulty: 18 completed passesFuchs: 26 completed passesButcher: 29 completed passesBolton: 19 completed passesClark: 17 completed passesShankland: 23 completed passes12561796618201024SiegristSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonMcNultyFuchsButcherBoltonClarkShanklandStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hibernian

Marciano and McGregor: 3 passesMcGinn and Murphy: 3 passesCadden and Doidge: 3 passesIrvine and Doidge: 3 passesDoig and Murphy: 3 passesMurphy and Boyle: 3 passesMurphy and Doidge: 3 passesHanlon and Murphy: 4 passesHanlon and Doidge: 4 passesMcGregor and Gogic: 4 passesGogic and Doig: 4 passesGogic and Murphy: 4 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 5 passesMarciano and Doidge: 5 passesMcGregor and McGinn: 5 passesMcGregor and Irvine: 5 passesCadden and Boyle: 5 passesCadden and Irvine: 6 passesCadden and Murphy: 6 passesIrvine and Gogic: 6 passesMcGinn and Gogic: 7 passesIrvine and Murphy: 7 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 12 passesHanlon and Doig: 13 passesMarciano: 7 completed passesHanlon: 20 completed passesMcGregor: 18 completed passesMcGinn: 20 completed passesCadden: 18 completed passesIrvine: 15 completed passesGogic: 20 completed passesDoig: 14 completed passesMurphy: 13 completed passesBoyle: 12 completed passesDoidge: 4 completed passes142462736132518109MarcianoHanlonMcGregorMcGinnCaddenIrvineGogicDoigMurphyBoyleDoidgeStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
SmithMcNulty14
ConnollyReynolds13
ConnollySmith12
SmithClark10
ReynoldsRobson10

Hibernian

FromToPasses
McGinnCadden12
DoigHanlon7
MarcianoDoidge7
HanlonDoig7
IrvineMurphy6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

4−3.04−3.411+3.88+1.45−2.511+4.210+2.214+4.34−1.24−1.24−0.46+0.86+0.64+0.66+3.74+1.46+2.84+2.10−1.30−0.95+3.52+0.11+0.40−0.20−0.41+0.61+0.41−4.313−4.10−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Hibernian

1−4.010+4.814+0.89+2.29+2.67+0.410+2.612+3.613+6.114+6.87+1.011+5.23−1.72−4.24−1.44+0.39+5.64+2.12−1.08+3.59+7.21−0.24+3.20−1.21−0.91+0.30−0.53+1.80−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.030.040.060.040.030.080.030.090.01−0.010.060.050.020.01−0.030.010.070.01−0.060.010.19LessMore

Hibernian

0.030.010.010.010.020.010.010.040.06−0.010.020.100.010.090.030.050.050.010.04−0.030.070.060.05−0.110.020.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackDundee United0.90 → 0.89Hibernian1.25 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.36 → 1.36Hibernian1.07 → 1.06

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six13%7%−6
11th6%8%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
St. Mirren
Top six58%60%+2
Kilmarnock
Top six14%15%+1
11th8%7%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Expected goals0.891.42
Win23%49%
Expected Points0.971.75
Clean sheet24%41%

Dundee United 23%Draw 28%Hibernian 49%

Most likely score 0–1, 13%. Both sides score 45%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+5%2%8%9%4%2%4%6%4%2%1%2%1%10%13%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHibernian win
Dundee United
Top six13%25%12%7%
11th6%2%5%8%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six58%53%59%60%
Kilmarnock
Top six14%11%14%15%
11th8%8%8%7%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. L1–527 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.23–3.25
  2. D0–016 JanHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.63–0.67
  3. D2–212 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.82–2.25
  4. D0–02 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.46–0.85
  5. L0–330 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.95–2.09
  6. D1–126 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.67–1.82

Hibernian

  1. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.80–1.72
  2. W2–016 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–0.64
  3. D1–111 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.83–0.97
  4. L0–32 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.49–1.18
  5. L0–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.69
  6. L0–126 DecRangers (A)xG 0.95–2.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Position6th4th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠10–⁠911–⁠7–⁠7
Points28 (1.12 per game)40 (1.60 per game)
Expected Points per game0.941.49
Goals20–⁠3433–⁠25
xG per game0.88–⁠1.541.44–⁠1.22
Home: points, xG per game1.23, 0.92–⁠1.641.31, 1.24–⁠1.35
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.85–⁠1.431.92, 1.65–⁠1.07
ManagerMicky Mellon (25)Jack Ross (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackDundee United0.90, 11thHibernian1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.36, 9thHibernian1.07, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United attack: 0.90Hibernian attack: 1.251.250.90HibernianDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United defence: 1.36Hibernian defence: 1.071.361.07

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−27%+28%+16%−11%
Counter-attacks+32%+99%−19%+5%
Set pieces−40%+11%+5%−1%
Penalties−55%−33%+12%+12%
Headers−55%+19%+38%−21%
Left side−1%+28%−2%−5%
Centre−44%+15%+11%−27%
Right side−27%+46%+27%+27%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side−1%+27%Centre−44%−27%Right side−27%−5%Open play−27%−11%Counter-attacks+32%+5%Set pieces−40%−1%Headers−55%−21%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side−2%+46%Centre+11%+15%Right side+27%+28%Open play+16%+28%Counter-attacks−19%+99%Set pieces+5%+11%Headers+38%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.88xG1.44
1.54xG against1.22
47%Possession50%
9.0Shots11.6
15.8Shots against12.0
2.6Shots on target4.1
1.1Big chances1.8
11.5Touches in the opposition box20.1
362Passes392
66%Pass accuracy72%
4.1Corners5.6
38%Field tilt46%
31.1Final-third entries39.4
7.3Box entries10.4
15.8Passes per defensive action13.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.711.23
Ahead171.111.42
Behind231.102.32

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.581.07
Ahead301.601.37
Behind200.891.30

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.153–3
16–300.200.174–6
31–450.110.333–7
46–600.170.215–3
61–750.050.360–6
76–900.220.335–9

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.144–4
16–300.160.166–2
31–450.210.266–6
46–600.170.235–4
61–750.320.165–1
76–900.310.267–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTSiegrist 23Mehmet 2Edwards 15Smith 6Neilson 6Connolly 20Reynolds 24Bolton 10Smith 8Chalmers 3Butcher 16Clark 7McNulty 1Pawlett 10Robson 8Powers 6Harkes 20Fuchs 5Robson 11Sporle 5Bolton 3Clark 12McNulty 7Chalmers 1Shankland 18Appere 6Robson 33-5-2 in 9 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-4-2 (8), 4-1-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 21Macey 2Barnes 2McGinn 23Boyle 1Wright 1Porteous 25McGinn 1McGregor 1Hanlon 23Doig 11Stevenson 8Gogic 3Boyle 18Wright 2Newell 2Gogic 12Hallberg 9Mallan 3Newell 20Nisbet 1Magennis 1Murphy 7Doig 4Horgan 4Nisbet 22Boyle 3Wright 1Doidge 18Gogic 3Irvine 14-4-2 in 13 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 December 2020Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.12–1.43
11 August 2020Dundee United0–1HibernianxG 0.83–0.90

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 0, Hibernian won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.13–1.51 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark191,609810.310.10
Shankland181,666410.200.11
Pawlett121,037100.140.14
Sporle7726110.120.16

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet231,9951120.480.09
Mallan4507100.230.33
Doidge181,718520.410.08
Boyle232,073540.260.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.