Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Dundee United 1–0 Hibernian

Tuesday 11 October 2022, 19:45 · Tannadice Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 9,112

Dundee United Behich 11'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Goals10
xG0.561.31
Expected Points0.711.98

Dundee United 14%Draw 30%Hibernian 56%

Most likely score 0–1, 21%. Final score 1–0, 7%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+13%14%5%1%7%14%9%3%2%3%2%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTHarkes on for Sibbald, 69'Anaku on for Middleton, 77'McKirdy on for Youan and Henderson on for Kenneh, 46'Tavares on for Cabraja and Fish on for Cadden, 77'Magennis on for Campbell, 89'Behich 11'Hibernian 1.31Dundee United 0.5600.511.50153045607590HTHarkes on for Sibbald, 69'Anaku on for Middleton, 77'McKirdy on for Youan and Henderson on for Kenneh, 46'Tavares on for Cabraja and Fish on for Cadden, 77'Magennis on for Campbell, 89'Behich 11'1.310.56Dundee UnitedHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.56 −0.34xG1.31 −0.05
9 −2Shots18 0
1 −3.2Shots on target7 +2.0
1 +0.3Big chances1 −0.2
19 −4Touches in the opposition box27 −1
36% −10Possession64% +4
258 −117Passes459 +45
67% −3Pass accuracy80% +1
37% −7Field tilt63% −6
28 −10Final-third entries56 +5
11 +1.8Box entries9 −7.6
13.5 −3.3Passes per defensive action13.1 +4.3
5 −0.2Corners10 +1.6
21 +7Tackles12 −2
7 −2.3Interceptions5 −2.2
33 +13Clearances12 −6
7 +3.4Saves0 −1.7
11 +1Fouls13 −2
2 +0.6Offsides3 +1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Middleton 8', 0.12 xGMiddleton 36', 0.07 xGSibbald 42', 0.07 xGWatt 73', 0.06 xGMiddleton 6', 0.05 xGLevitt 11', 0.05 xGMiddleton 52', 0.03 xGLevitt 6', 0.02 xGBehich 11', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal31%0.17 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals13%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Kukharevych 55', 0.45 xGBoyle 59', 0.24 xGKukharevych 25', 0.07 xGMcKirdy 51', 0.07 xGKukharevych 81', 0.07 xGHenderson 53', 0.06 xGPorteous 58', 0.06 xGBoyle 31', 0.04 xGHanlon 39', 0.04 xGPorteous 56', 0.03 xGMcKirdy 63', 0.03 xGBoyle 76', 0.03 xGHanlon 10', 0.02 xGYouan 30', 0.02 xGCabraja 45+4', 0.02 xGHenderson 86', 0.02 xGKukharevych 90+5', 0.02 xGPorteous 45+1', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%1.08 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.08 xG, 0 goals10%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.37 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.86 12 shots, 0 goals
0.12 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.39 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
11 min (11%) · Dundee United 0.33, Hibernian 0.02 xG
Dundee United ahead
88 min (89%) · Dundee United 0.23, Hibernian 1.29 xG

Line-ups

13212322141916181532ErikssonSmithEdwardsMcMannFreemanSibbaldLevittBehichMcGrathMiddletonWattYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card69'77'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox11254367711322399MarshallCaddenPorteousHanlonCabrajaKennehBoyleNewellCampbellYouanKukharevychYellow cardYellow card77'77'46'89'46'Hibernian 4-1-4-1Lee Johnson

Dundee United substitutes

  • 69' Harkes for Sibbald
  • 77' Anaku for Middleton · yellow card 90'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Henderson for Kenneh
  • 46' McKirdy for Youan
  • 77' Fish for Cadden
  • 77' Tavares for Cabraja
  • 89' Magennis for Campbell

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ErikssonGK900.000.0000.0331
SmithCB900.000.0110.0338
Edwards CB900.000.0100.0229
McMannCB900.000.0000.0326
Freeman RWB900.000.0210.0353
Sibbald CM690.070.000−0.0206
LevittCM9010.070.0520.0846
BehichLWB9010.090.0100.0566
McGrathAM900.000.2230.0132
MiddletonAM770.270.0000.0641
Watt ST900.060.2500.25109
HarkesMF210.000.0000.0003
Anaku FW130.000.0000.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0210
CaddenRB770.000.0200.0257
PorteousCB900.100.1900.26169
Hanlon CB900.060.0410.1697
Cabraja LB770.020.0510.0960
KennehDM460.000.0200.0203
BoyleRM900.310.1430.0932
NewellCM900.000.0820.0244
CampbellCM890.000.010−0.0310
YouanLM460.020.0100.0020
KukharevychST900.620.1420.0741
HendersonMF440.080.0000.0111
McKirdyFW440.100.011−0.0200
FishDF130.000.0000.0111
TavaresMF130.000.0000.0000
MagennisMF10.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Eriksson and Smith: 3 passesEdwards and Smith: 3 passesSmith and Freeman: 3 passesBehich and Watt: 3 passesMcGrath and Middleton: 3 passesEdwards and McMann: 4 passesSmith and Sibbald: 4 passesFreeman and Levitt: 4 passesFreeman and McGrath: 4 passesFreeman and Watt: 4 passesLevitt and McGrath: 4 passesLevitt and Watt: 4 passesMcGrath and Watt: 4 passesMcMann and Behich: 5 passesSmith and Levitt: 5 passesSmith and McGrath: 5 passesFreeman and Sibbald: 5 passesSibbald and Levitt: 5 passesMiddleton and Watt: 5 passesBehich and McGrath: 6 passesBehich and Middleton: 7 passesMcMann and Levitt: 9 passesBehich and Levitt: 11 passesEriksson: 9 completed passesEdwards: 10 completed passesMcMann: 12 completed passesSmith: 17 completed passesFreeman: 10 completed passesBehich: 18 completed passesSibbald: 12 completed passesLevitt: 25 completed passesMcGrath: 12 completed passesMiddleton: 7 completed passesWatt: 9 completed passes13123222161419181532ErikssonEdwardsMcMannSmithFreemanBehichSibbaldLevittMcGrathMiddletonWattStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Hanlon and Youan: 3 passesCabraja and Kukharevych: 3 passesNewell and Youan: 3 passesCampbell and Kukharevych: 3 passesHanlon and Boyle: 4 passesCabraja and Campbell: 4 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 5 passesCabraja and Kenneh: 5 passesKenneh and Campbell: 5 passesMarshall and Porteous: 6 passesCadden and Boyle: 6 passesHanlon and Newell: 6 passesKenneh and Newell: 6 passesCadden and Campbell: 7 passesPorteous and Kenneh: 7 passesCadden and Kenneh: 9 passesCabraja and Youan: 10 passesHanlon and Kenneh: 11 passesPorteous and Boyle: 11 passesCabraja and Newell: 15 passesHanlon and Porteous: 19 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 19 passesCadden and Porteous: 27 passesMarshall: 10 completed passesCadden: 30 completed passesHanlon: 36 completed passesPorteous: 37 completed passesCabraja: 34 completed passesKenneh: 24 completed passesBoyle: 13 completed passesNewell: 18 completed passesCampbell: 12 completed passesYouan: 7 completed passesKukharevych: 7 completed passes11245367711322399MarshallCaddenHanlonPorteousCabrajaKennehBoyleNewellCampbellYouanKukharevychStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
McGrathBehich10
BehichLevitt7
McMannLevitt6
LevittWatt5
LevittBehich5

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenPorteous18
PorteousCadden17
HanlonCabraja14
HanlonPorteous14
NewellCabraja11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5+0.75−1.619+5.06−0.73−4.05+0.92−2.26−1.96−0.310+3.84+0.140.05+1.63−1.811+5.33−2.24+0.71−1.12−2.130.02+0.81−0.71+0.11−0.73+1.62+1.61+1.00−0.61+0.42+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hibernian

3−0.18+3.210+1.45−2.29+2.011+8.07+1.23−1.22−3.83−2.32−3.11−1.66+0.75−3.62−0.22−2.63+0.15+1.32−3.83+0.73+0.60−1.62−0.62−0.90−0.61+0.23+1.71+0.10−1.12−7.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.060.010.060.010.020.020.050.01−0.060.030.060.040.010.070.09LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.030.010.010.010.030.030.020.050.050.050.01−0.050.020.010.02−0.010.030.010.080.080.070.070.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackDundee United0.98 → 0.97Hibernian1.20 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.42 → 1.42Hibernian1.03 → 1.02

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six6%9%+3
11th22%19%−3
Bottom25%17%−8
Hibernian
Top six94%91%−3
Ross County
11th24%24%0
Bottom38%40%+2
St. Johnstone
Top six9%9%0
11th20%20%0
Bottom14%16%+2

From the forecast before the match (11 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Expected goals1.001.29
Win28%42%
Expected Points1.141.56
Clean sheet28%37%

Dundee United 28%Draw 29%Hibernian 42%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Hibernian goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%10%8%4%1%5%7%4%2%2%2%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHibernian win
Dundee United
Top six6%9%6%3%
11th22%19%22%24%
Bottom25%17%26%30%
Hibernian
Top six94%91%93%97%
Ross County
11th24%24%24%24%
Bottom38%40%38%36%
St. Johnstone
Top six9%9%10%9%
11th20%20%19%20%
Bottom14%16%14%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W4–08 OctAberdeen (H)xG 2.25–0.89
  2. L1–21 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.30–0.72
  3. L1–217 SepRangers (A)xG 0.59–1.51
  4. D0–03 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.36–3.28
  5. L0–928 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.22–5.53
  6. L0–320 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.25–1.84

Hibernian

  1. W1–08 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.67–0.34
  2. W2–01 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.66–0.66
  3. W3–117 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.80–0.66
  4. W1–03 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.44–0.39
  5. L0–127 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.80–1.37
  6. D2–220 AugRangers (H)xG 0.77–1.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHibernian
Position12th3rd
Played99
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠65–⁠2–⁠2
Points5 (0.56 per game)17 (1.89 per game)
Expected Points per game0.911.71
Goals8–⁠2212–⁠7
xG per game0.90–⁠1.971.36–⁠0.84
Home: points, xG per game0.60, 1.11–⁠1.982.20, 1.44–⁠0.78
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.63–⁠1.961.50, 1.28–⁠0.91
ManagerLiam Fox (4)Lee Johnson (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackDundee United0.98, 8thHibernian1.20, 4thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.42, 11thHibernian1.03, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United attack: 0.98Hibernian attack: 1.201.200.98HibernianDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United defence: 1.42Hibernian defence: 1.031.421.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%+66%average−45%
Counter-attacks−36%+319%average+67%
Set pieces−48%−10%+40%−25%
Penalties+46%−27%−27%−27%
Headers−55%−15%+26%−26%
Left side−28%+92%+43%−33%
Centre−51%+65%−23%−48%
Right side−30%+21%+27%−20%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHibernian concededLeft side−28%−20%Centre−51%−48%Right side−30%−33%Open play−35%−45%Counter-attacks−36%+67%Set pieces−48%−25%Headers−55%−26%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdDundee United concededLeft side+43%+21%Centre−23%+65%Right side+27%+92%Open playaverage+66%Counter-attacksaverage+319%Set pieces+40%−10%Headers+26%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHibernian

0.90xG1.36
1.97xG against0.84
46%Possession60%
11.1Shots18.3
16.3Shots against9.0
4.2Shots on target5.0
0.7Big chances1.2
22.7Touches in the opposition box27.7
375Passes414
70%Pass accuracy78%
5.2Corners8.4
44%Field tilt69%
38.4Final-third entries50.9
9.2Box entries16.6
16.8Passes per defensive action8.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level340.692.19
Ahead111.561.13
Behind460.892.00

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.940.88
Ahead191.580.71
Behind311.780.86

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.340–4
16–300.090.190–0
31–450.150.503–5
46–600.090.351–7
61–750.250.262–1
76–900.230.332–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.081–3
16–300.080.120–1
31–450.270.151–1
46–600.330.203–1
61–750.190.143–0
76–900.340.154–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTEriksson 6Birighitti 3Smith 6Freeman 3Edwards 9Smith 3Mulgrew 4Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Graham 6McMann 1Behich 5McMann 3Middleton 1Harkes 7Sibbald 3Middleton 1Levitt 8Mulgrew 1McGrath 5Fletcher 6McGrath 2Anaku 1Watt 7Middleton 25-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 9Cadden 9Porteous 8Bushiri 3Hanlon 7Cabraja 8Campbell 1Kenneh 7Campbell 3Doyle-Hayes 2Newell 5Henderson 1Boyle 4Melkersen 3Porteous 1Campbell 3Newell 3Henderson 2Youan 5Henderson 2Boyle 1Youan 4Kukharevych 3Boyle 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 April 2022Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.51–0.46
26 December 2021Dundee United1–3HibernianxG 0.54–1.80
16 October 2021Hibernian0–3Dundee UnitedxG 0.41–0.73
30 January 2021Dundee United0–2HibernianxG 0.51–1.34
19 December 2020Hibernian1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.12–1.43
11 August 2020Dundee United0–1HibernianxG 0.83–0.90

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 1, Hibernian won 3, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–8 and xG 0.75–1.35 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher6485110.370.05
McGrath7613110.140.11
Watt7586200.190.04
Behich6508100.110.07

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle6612400.310.13
Youan9692030.220.17
Campbell7564400.200.14
Newell9809100.100.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.