Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Motherwell 0–3 Hibernian

Saturday 5 December 2020, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0

Hibernian Boyle 59', Doidge 88', S. McGinn 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHibernian
Goals03
xG1.221.08
Expected Points1.441.22

Motherwell 37%Draw 33%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 0–3, 1%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%11%5%1%10%9%2%7%11%6%1%2%4%2%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSeedorf on for Long, 70'Hastie on for Polworth, 82'Doidge on for Wright, 69'Gullan on for Murphy and S. McGinn on for Hallberg, 76'Boyle 59'Doidge 88'S. McGinn 90'Motherwell 1.22Hibernian 1.0800.511.50153045607590HTSeedorf on for Long, 70'Hastie on for Polworth, 82'Doidge on for Wright, 69'Gullan on for Murphy and S. McGinn on for Hallberg, 76'Boyle 59'Doidge 88'S. McGinn 90'1.221.08MotherwellHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHibernian

1.22 +0.09xG1.08 −0.43
0.04 −0.98xG on target2.18 +0.63
12 +1Shots12 0
1 −1.8Shots on target5 +1.2
2 +0.8Big chances1 −0.9
21 0Touches in the opposition box24 +3
47% 0Possession53% +5
303 −64Passes338 −46
68% −4Pass accuracy73% +2
37% −1Field tilt63% +22
34 +1Final-third entries37 −2
12 +2.2Box entries11 −0.3
13.8 −2Passes per defensive action15.8 +1
7 +1.2Corners6 +0.9
15 +2Tackles15 0
8 −2.4Interceptions8 −1.3
19 −1Clearances30 +8
2 −0.5Saves1 −1.9
13 0Fouls10 −3
0 −2.2Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Watt 14', 0.42 xGMugabi 65', 0.29 xGWatt 57', 0.11 xGLang 3', 0.08 xGO'Hara 67', 0.08 xGO'Hara 38', 0.05 xGWatt 23', 0.04 xGLong 63', 0.04 xGPolworth 34', 0.03 xGCampbell 36', 0.03 xGLong 64', 0.03 xGCampbell 76', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.89 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.89 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals16%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 58', 0.53 xGNisbet 56', 0.10 xGNewell 6', 0.04 xGHallberg 10', 0.04 xGP. McGinn 22', 0.04 xGBoyle 52', 0.04 xGNewell 52', 0.04 xGBoyle 11', 0.03 xGBoyle 85', 0.03 xGS. McGinn 90+5', 0.09 xG, goalDoidge 88', 0.06 xG, goalBoyle 59', 0.05 xG, goal49%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.53 xG, 0 goals21%0.23 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 2 goals11%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal19%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHibernian

0.67 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.94 10 shots, 3 goals
0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.45 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.15 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
59 min (62%) · Motherwell 0.75, Hibernian 0.90 xG
Hibernian ahead
36 min (38%) · Motherwell 0.47, Hibernian 0.18 xG

Line-ups

1333163157619299932ArcherO'DonnellMugabiGallagherMcGinleyO'HaraCampbellPolworthLangLongWattYellow card82'70'Motherwell 4-3-3Stephen Robinson16541682011181015MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonWrightHallbergNewellMurphyBoyleNisbetGoal69'76'76'Hibernian 4-4-2Jack Ross

Motherwell substitutes

  • 70' Seedorf for Long
  • 82' Hastie for Polworth

Hibernian substitutes

  • 69' Doidge for Wright · goal 88'
  • 76' S. McGinn for Hallberg · yellow card 89', goal 90'
  • 76' Gullan for Murphy · 1 assist

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ArcherGK900.000.0000.0110
O'DonnellRB900.000.1720.33123
MugabiCB900.290.0200.0395
GallagherCB900.000.0100.0967
McGinleyLB900.000.3800.24109
O'HaraCM900.130.0000.0125
CampbellCM900.060.0320.0125
PolworthCM820.030.3120.0530
LangRW900.080.0610.0743
LongST700.070.0200.0121
Watt LW900.560.0100.1337
SeedorfMF200.000.0000.0200
HastieMF80.000.0000.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0121
P. McGinnRB900.040.5510.2486
PorteousCB900.000.0100.12613
HanlonCB900.000.0300.01311
StevensonLB900.000.0310.1087
WrightRM690.000.1110.2133
HallbergCM7610.040.0520.0011
NewellCM9010.070.1110.1444
MurphyLM760.000.0310.0462
BoyleST9010.680.0400.17130
NisbetST900.100.011−0.0205
DoidgeFW2110.060.0100.0211
S. McGinn MF1410.090.0000.0002
GullanFW1410.000.0710.0401

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

O'Donnell and Lang: 4 passesMugabi and Polworth: 4 passesGallagher and Polworth: 4 passesGallagher and Campbell: 4 passesGallagher and Lang: 4 passesO'Hara and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Campbell: 4 passesPolworth and Watt: 4 passesLong and Watt: 4 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 6 passesArcher and Mugabi: 7 passesArcher and Gallagher: 7 passesGallagher and O'Hara: 7 passesMcGinley and Watt: 7 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 8 passesMugabi and Gallagher: 8 passesArcher and O'Donnell: 9 passesO'Donnell and Polworth: 9 passesGallagher and McGinley: 9 passesO'Donnell and Watt: 11 passesArcher: 13 completed passesO'Donnell: 33 completed passesMugabi: 19 completed passesGallagher: 24 completed passesMcGinley: 19 completed passesO'Hara: 18 completed passesPolworth: 19 completed passesCampbell: 15 completed passesLong: 7 completed passesWatt: 11 completed passesLang: 6 completed passes1333163157196993229ArcherO'DonnellMugabiGallagherMcGinleyO'HaraPolworthCampbellLongWattLangStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Marciano and Stevenson: 4 passesP. McGinn and Wright: 4 passesMarciano and Porteous: 5 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 5 passesBoyle and Newell: 5 passesBoyle and Murphy: 5 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 6 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 6 passesPorteous and Hallberg: 6 passesStevenson and Hallberg: 6 passesPorteous and Newell: 7 passesBoyle and Hallberg: 7 passesHallberg and Newell: 7 passesHanlon and Newell: 8 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 9 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 9 passesStevenson and Newell: 9 passesBoyle and Wright: 9 passesNewell and Murphy: 10 passesStevenson and Murphy: 11 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 12 passesP. McGinn and Hallberg: 13 passesMarciano: 16 completed passesP. McGinn: 29 completed passesPorteous: 26 completed passesHanlon: 23 completed passesStevenson: 23 completed passesBoyle: 15 completed passesHallberg: 24 completed passesNewell: 30 completed passesMurphy: 19 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesNisbet: 5 completed passes16541610201118815MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonBoyleHallbergNewellMurphyWrightNisbetStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GallagherMcGinley10
O'DonnellWatt8
O'DonnellArcher8
ArcherGallagher7
MugabiO'Donnell7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonMurphy8
P. McGinnBoyle8
P. McGinnPorteous8
HallbergP. McGinn7
P. McGinnHallberg6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4+0.64−2.010−2.917+9.41−5.270.07−0.34−2.37+0.310+2.71−4.34−1.85+1.55−0.23−1.72−1.54+1.10−2.16+3.43−0.30−2.54+2.51+0.30−1.41−1.00−1.01+0.51+0.11+0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Hibernian

50.06+0.58+0.86−0.33−3.213+5.810+1.111+4.911+3.97+1.64−1.86+1.33−3.57+2.64+0.11−2.02+0.41−2.51−2.43+1.72+0.71+0.30−1.01−0.50−0.71+0.40−1.10−0.40−0.811−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.010.010.060.040.040.050.020.07−0.020.020.050.020.01−0.010.010.040.080.090.040.010.130.17LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.030.010.040.040.010.010.010.040.120.020.010.010.050.050.06−0.01−0.020.030.050.030.200.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackMotherwell1.15 → 1.13Hibernian1.31 → 1.32Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33 → 1.33Hibernian1.17 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six49%40%−9
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
Hibernian
Top six98%99%+1
Dundee United
Top six31%33%+2
Bottom1%1%0
St. Johnstone
Top six45%47%+2
11th3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (5 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHibernian
Expected goals1.211.36
Win33%40%
Expected Points1.251.47
Clean sheet26%30%

Motherwell 33%Draw 28%Hibernian 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%9%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHibernian win
Motherwell
Top six49%62%49%40%
11th4%2%4%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Hibernian
Top six98%96%98%99%
Dundee United
Top six31%29%32%33%
Bottom1%1%2%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six45%42%44%47%
11th3%3%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–121 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.69–2.14
  2. L1–48 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.66–2.84
  3. W2–031 OctLivingston (A)xG 1.40–0.70
  4. W4–024 OctRoss County (H)xG 3.11–1.47
  5. L1–527 SepRangers (H)xG 0.38–2.59
  6. W3–020 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.75–0.70

Hibernian

  1. D2–224 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.56–1.02
  2. D2–221 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.54–1.91
  3. L0–26 NovAberdeen (A)xG 0.67–0.88
  4. W1–024 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.50–0.97
  5. D0–017 OctRoss County (A)xG 2.70–0.63
  6. W3–22 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.97–1.80

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHibernian
Position8th4th
Played1315
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠3–⁠67–⁠5–⁠3
Points15 (1.15 per game)26 (1.73 per game)
Expected Points per game1.041.52
Goals15–⁠1821–⁠16
xG per game1.13–⁠1.651.51–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.11–⁠1.871.43, 1.39–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 1.15–⁠1.402.00, 1.60–⁠1.05
ManagerStephen Robinson (5)Jack Ross (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackMotherwell1.15, 5thHibernian1.31, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33, 10thHibernian1.17, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovMotherwell attack: 1.15Hibernian attack: 1.311.311.15HibernianMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovMotherwell defence: 1.33Hibernian defence: 1.171.331.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−28%+10%+19%−12%
Counter-attacks−88%+149%−75%−88%
Set pieces+11%+12%+1%−1%
Penalties+3%+72%+19%+49%
Headers−7%+15%+34%−21%
Left side−24%+4%+7%average
Centre−21%+31%+17%−37%
Right side−11%−1%+4%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−24%+24%Centre−21%−37%Right side−11%averageOpen play−28%−12%Counter-attacks−88%−88%Set pieces+11%−1%Headers−7%−21%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side+7%−1%Centre+17%+31%Right side+4%+4%Open play+19%+10%Counter-attacks−75%+149%Set pieces+1%+12%Headers+34%+15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHibernian

1.13xG1.51
1.65xG against1.30
48%Possession48%
11.4Shots12.2
12.9Shots against13.4
2.8Shots on target3.8
1.2Big chances1.9
20.6Touches in the opposition box21.4
368Passes384
72%Pass accuracy70%
5.8Corners5.1
38%Field tilt41%
32.7Final-third entries38.6
9.8Box entries11.3
15.5Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.68
Ahead271.241.61
Behind241.271.64

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.741.12
Ahead301.521.59
Behind160.811.24

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.324–3
16–300.170.193–3
31–450.200.323–3
46–600.240.141–1
61–750.290.303–3
76–900.070.391–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.182–3
16–300.180.105–0
31–450.250.335–5
46–600.180.243–2
61–750.340.173–1
76–900.280.283–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 10Chapman 3O'Donnell 10Grimshaw 2Gallagher 1Gallagher 11O'Hara 3Mugabi 7Lamie 5McGinley 6Lamie 4Grimshaw 3Campbell 11Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 9Maguire 3Crawford 1Polworth 9Turnbull 2Donnelly 1Lang 3Seedorf 3Mugabi 2Watt 6Long 4White 2Lang 3Cole 3Watt 24-3-3 in 6 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (6), 4-4-2 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 15P. McGinn 14Boyle 1Porteous 15Hanlon 15Doig 7Stevenson 3Gogic 2Boyle 12P. McGinn 1Newell 1Gogic 9Mallan 2Wright 2Newell 14Magennis 1Murphy 5Horgan 4Doig 3Doidge 12Boyle 1Wright 1Nisbet 13Gogic 24-4-2 in 8 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-5-2 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 August 2020Hibernian0–0MotherwellxG 1.45–0.89

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Motherwell won 0, Hibernian won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 0–0 and xG 0.89–1.45 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watt8705210.320.05
Lang7645210.300.03
Polworth9760020.070.19
O'Hara131,126300.190.02

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet131,123820.660.08
Doidge121,127310.330.09
Murphy5468110.180.23
Boyle151,347330.200.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.