Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 2–1 Dundee United

Saturday 22 October 2022, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 6,273

St. Mirren Eriksson 41' (og), Greive 83'

Dundee United Fletcher 58'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenDundee United
Goals21
xG1.290.70
Expected Points1.840.84

St. Mirren 51%Draw 32%Dundee United 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–1, 11%.

Dundee United goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+11%9%2%4%12%11%3%4%4%1%17%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTGreive on for Ayunga, 79'Flynn on for Erhahon, 90+3'Fletcher on for Niskanen, 54'Harkes on for Djoum, 68'Anaku on for Watt, 70'Eriksson 41' (og)Greive 83'Fletcher 58'St. Mirren 1.29Dundee United 0.7000.511.50153045607590HTGreive on for Ayunga, 79'Flynn on for Erhahon, 90+3'Fletcher on for Niskanen, 54'Harkes on for Djoum, 68'Anaku on for Watt, 70'Eriksson 41' (og)Greive 83'Fletcher 58'1.290.70St. MirrenDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenDundee United

1.29 +0.27xG0.70 −0.23
0.63 −0.38xG on target0.98 +0.13
15 +5Shots10 −1
2 −0.9Shots on target3 −0.8
3 +1.1Big chances1 +0.2
17 +5Touches in the opposition box24 +2
37% 0Possession63% +16
274 +12Passes471 +102
68% +8Pass accuracy83% +13
29% −8Field tilt71% +27
29 −1Final-third entries56 +18
9 −0.2Box entries16 +6.5
10.3 −7Passes per defensive action22.1 +6
6 −0.1Corners6 +0.4
21 +6Tackles7 −7
5 −3.8Interceptions5 −3.7
21 −1Clearances14 −8
3 +0.3Saves1 −2.5
19 +6Fouls5 −5
0 −1.4Offsides4 +2.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Ayunga 42', 0.46 xGDunne 6', 0.21 xGMain 90+1', 0.17 xGAyunga 5', 0.07 xGAyunga 20', 0.07 xGAyunga 21', 0.05 xGO'Hara 73', 0.04 xGO'Hara 20', 0.03 xGMain 19', 0.02 xGBaccus 66', 0.02 xGMain 41', 0.01 xGMain 42', 0.01 xGTait 72', 0.01 xGAyunga 57', 0.00 xGGreive 83', 0.12 xG, goal16%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals67%0.87 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.87 xG, 1 goal12%0.15 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Watt 38', 0.07 xGFletcher 88', 0.06 xGWatt 67', 0.05 xGNiskanen 3', 0.04 xGSibbald 45', 0.04 xGSibbald 43', 0.02 xGSmith 80', 0.02 xGDjoum 27', 0.01 xGMcMann 56', 0.01 xGFletcher 58', 0.37 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.53 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.53 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals16%0.11 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenDundee United

0.97 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.61 8 shots, 1 goal
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.27 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (71%) · St. Mirren 0.64, Dundee United 0.20 xG
St. Mirren ahead
27 min (29%) · St. Mirren 0.65, Dundee United 0.50 xG

Line-ups

123221318217166710CarsonStrainFraserGogicDunneTaitBaccusErhahonO'HaraAyungaMainYellow card90+3'79'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson1321237101416181532ErikssonSmithEdwardsMcMannNiskanenDjoumSibbaldBehichMcGrathMiddletonWattOwn goalYellow card54'68'70'Dundee United 3-4-1-2Liam Fox

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 79' Greive for Ayunga · goal 83'
  • 90+3' Flynn for Erhahon

Dundee United substitutes

  • 54' Fletcher for Niskanen · goal 58'
  • 68' Harkes for Djoum
  • 70' Anaku for Watt

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0010.0671
StrainRWB900.000.0410.0578
FraserCB900.000.0000.0343
GogicCB900.000.0100.0537
DunneCB900.210.0000.0236
TaitLWB900.010.1010.1553
BaccusCM900.020.2520.1866
Erhahon CM9010.000.4040.1152
O'HaraCM900.060.1100.0323
AyungaST790.660.0010.0125
MainST900.210.0110.0324
GreiveFW1110.120.1510.0511
FlynnMF00.000.000––0

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ErikssonGK900.000.0000.0001
SmithCB900.020.0100.0735
EdwardsCB900.000.0100.12125
McMannCB900.010.2120.35121
NiskanenRWB540.040.0310.0542
Djoum CM680.010.0210.0333
SibbaldCM900.060.0210.0252
BehichLWB900.000.2500.27102
McGrathAM900.000.0700.0854
MiddletonST900.000.0420.0331
WattST7010.120.2610.0721
FletcherFW3610.430.1110.3311
HarkesMF220.000.0100.0111
AnakuFW200.000.000−0.1401

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Strain: 3 passesCarson and Dunne: 3 passesStrain and Ayunga: 3 passesGogic and Tait: 3 passesDunne and Tait: 3 passesDunne and O'Hara: 3 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 3 passesMain and Ayunga: 3 passesStrain and Main: 4 passesDunne and Erhahon: 4 passesFraser and Main: 4 passesBaccus and Ayunga: 4 passesErhahon and Main: 4 passesFraser and Erhahon: 5 passesTait and Ayunga: 5 passesGogic and Fraser: 6 passesFraser and Baccus: 7 passesErhahon and O'Hara: 7 passesCarson and Main: 8 passesTait and Erhahon: 8 passesBaccus and Erhahon: 8 passesBaccus and Main: 8 passesStrain and Fraser: 9 passesStrain and Erhahon: 12 passesStrain and Baccus: 13 passesCarson: 14 completed passesStrain: 25 completed passesGogic: 9 completed passesDunne: 10 completed passesFraser: 24 completed passesTait: 13 completed passesBaccus: 23 completed passesErhahon: 29 completed passesO'Hara: 11 completed passesMain: 14 completed passesAyunga: 8 completed passes123131822217166107CarsonStrainGogicDunneFraserTaitBaccusErhahonO'HaraMainAyungaStarters until 79' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Eriksson and Smith: 5 passesMcMann and Sibbald: 5 passesNiskanen and Watt: 5 passesBehich and Watt: 5 passesMcGrath and Watt: 5 passesEriksson and McMann: 6 passesSmith and Djoum: 6 passesSmith and Sibbald: 6 passesMcMann and Djoum: 7 passesEriksson and Edwards: 8 passesNiskanen and Djoum: 8 passesNiskanen and Sibbald: 8 passesNiskanen and McGrath: 8 passesEdwards and Djoum: 9 passesEdwards and Sibbald: 10 passesMcMann and Behich: 10 passesEdwards and McGrath: 11 passesDjoum and McGrath: 12 passesBehich and McGrath: 12 passesMcMann and McGrath: 14 passesEdwards and McMann: 16 passesEdwards and Smith: 16 passesSmith and Niskanen: 19 passesEriksson: 15 completed passesEdwards: 44 completed passesMcMann: 33 completed passesSmith: 32 completed passesNiskanen: 24 completed passesDjoum: 27 completed passesSibbald: 20 completed passesBehich: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 35 completed passesMiddleton: 8 completed passesWatt: 8 completed passes1312327101416181532ErikssonEdwardsMcMannSmithNiskanenDjoumSibbaldBehichMcGrathMiddletonWattStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
BaccusStrain11
CarsonMain10
StrainErhahon10
ErhahonStrain9
ErhahonBaccus7

Dundee United

FromToPasses
SmithNiskanen14
EdwardsMcMann13
EdwardsSmith13
McMannBehich13
McMannEdwards12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.69+1.1140.07−1.82−2.09+0.59+2.69+2.77+2.94+1.02−2.58+2.98+4.56+2.93+0.64+1.33+0.10−2.720.00−0.94+2.60−2.41−0.50−0.63+2.10−0.60−1.05−3.71−4.22−4.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Dundee United

4−0.513−1.03−3.53−3.95+0.55+0.97−0.54−2.53−1.24−0.25+1.57+2.63−2.850.02−1.42+0.24+0.42−0.83+1.30−1.61+0.12+0.62+0.40−0.60−0.31+0.41+0.41+0.11−5.61−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.030.020.010.010.020.020.020.040.040.010.020.020.010.030.020.05−0.010.030.070.040.070.110.11LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.050.010.030.030.020.030.040.050.060.040.010.050.100.010.020.07−0.010.130.03−0.030.51LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackSt. Mirren0.91 → 0.93Dundee United1.00 → 0.99Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.34Dundee United1.38 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six36%45%+9
11th9%5%−4
Bottom4%2%−2
Dundee United
Top six9%6%−3
11th21%24%+3
Bottom15%20%+5
Ross County
11th22%24%+2
Bottom50%48%−2
Livingston
Top six59%57%−2
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (22 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenDundee United
Expected goals1.261.03
Win41%30%
Expected Points1.521.18
Clean sheet36%28%

St. Mirren 41%Draw 30%Dundee United 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Dundee United goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawDundee United win
St. Mirren
Top six36%45%33%25%
11th9%5%9%13%
Bottom4%2%5%6%
Dundee United
Top six9%6%9%14%
11th21%24%20%16%
Bottom15%20%15%9%
Ross County
11th22%24%21%21%
Bottom50%48%51%51%
Livingston
Top six59%57%61%58%
Bottom1%1%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D0–015 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–1.13
  2. L0–48 OctRangers (A)xG 0.37–2.73
  3. W2–11 OctLivingston (H)xG 0.77–1.45
  4. W2–018 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.18
  5. L0–33 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.81–2.25
  6. W1–027 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.37–0.80

Dundee United

  1. D1–115 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.64–0.35
  2. W1–011 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.56–1.31
  3. W4–08 OctAberdeen (H)xG 2.25–0.89
  4. L1–21 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.30–0.72
  5. L1–217 SepRangers (A)xG 0.59–1.51
  6. D0–03 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.36–3.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenDundee United
Position5th11th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠42–⁠3–⁠6
Points16 (1.60 per game)9 (0.82 per game)
Expected Points per game1.021.03
Goals10–⁠1310–⁠23
xG per game1.02–⁠1.570.93–⁠1.76
Home: points, xG per game2.17, 1.04–⁠1.011.00, 1.01–⁠1.87
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.99–⁠2.400.60, 0.84–⁠1.64
ManagerStephen Robinson (3)Liam Fox (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackSt. Mirren0.91, 10thDundee United1.00, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 10thDundee United1.38, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 0.91Dundee United attack: 1.001.000.91Dundee UnitedSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.37Dundee United defence: 1.381.381.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+12%−31%+45%
Counter-attacks+104%−84%−4%+267%
Set pieces+4%−24%−44%−2%
Penalties−32%+242%+24%−38%
Headers+33%−4%−53%−15%
Left side−30%+30%−14%+68%
Centre−13%−15%−39%+48%
Right side−19%−6%−39%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdDundee United concededLeft side−30%+13%Centre−13%+48%Right side−19%+68%Open play−33%+45%Counter-attacks+104%+267%Set pieces+4%−2%Headers+33%−15%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−14%−6%Centre−39%−15%Right side−39%+30%Open play−31%+12%Counter-attacks−4%−84%Set pieces−44%−24%Headers−53%−4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenDundee United

1.02xG0.93
1.57xG against1.76
37%Possession47%
10.4Shots11.2
13.5Shots against15.5
2.9Shots on target3.8
1.9Big chances0.8
12.0Touches in the opposition box21.6
262Passes370
60%Pass accuracy70%
6.1Corners5.6
37%Field tilt45%
29.9Final-third entries38.0
9.2Box entries9.5
17.6Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.961.39
Ahead241.181.35
Behind260.972.03

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.761.82
Ahead160.971.29
Behind401.071.90

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.171–1
16–300.080.360–3
31–450.200.262–3
46–600.230.194–0
61–750.130.221–2
76–900.290.372–4

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.281–4
16–300.080.170–0
31–450.200.433–6
46–600.090.371–7
61–750.280.213–1
76–900.190.292–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 10Strain 8Fraser 2Fraser 6Gogic 2Gallagher 9Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 10Tanser 5Tait 5Baccus 10Erhahon 10O'Hara 8Kiltie 2Ayunga 9Kiltie 1Main 8Greive 25-3-2 in every start

Dundee United

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTEriksson 8Birighitti 3Smith 6Freeman 5Smith 5Edwards 11Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Graham 6Mulgrew 4McMann 3Behich 7McMann 3Middleton 1McGrath 7Middleton 1Behich 1Levitt 10Sibbald 5Mulgrew 1Harkes 7Watt 9McGrath 2Anaku 1Fletcher 6Middleton 45-3-2 in 3 of 11 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 August 2022Dundee United0–3St. MirrenxG 1.25–1.84
19 March 2022St. Mirren1–2Dundee UnitedxG 0.34–1.51
18 January 2022Dundee United1–2St. MirrenxG 1.49–1.46
11 September 2021St. Mirren0–0Dundee UnitedxG 0.72–1.20
16 May 2021St. Mirren0–0Dundee UnitedxG 0.62–1.22
27 January 2021Dundee United1–5St. MirrenxG 1.23–3.25

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Dundee United won 2, and 3 were drawn. Goals 12–6 and xG 1.35–1.24 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga9717220.400.05
Strain8685020.050.21
Main8622200.180.07
O'Hara8697100.120.03

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher6492110.360.05
Watt9766300.260.07
Middleton8669010.160.14
McGrath9749110.130.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.