Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Aberdeen 4–1 Hibernian

Friday 4 November 2022, 19:30 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 14 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 16,479

Aberdeen Miovski 45+8' (pen), 53', Ramadani 61', Clarkson 77'

Hibernian Kukharevych 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHibernian
Goals41
xG1.691.50
Non-penalty xG0.901.50
Expected Points1.501.17

Aberdeen 39%Draw 32%Hibernian 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 4–1, 1%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+1%3%2%5%11%4%5%4%2%6%4%2%1%17%15%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWatkins on for Duk, 73'MacKenzie on for Coulson, 78'Kennedy on for Miovski, 89'Duncan on for Clarkson, 90'Melkersen on for Henderson, 65'Campbell on for Magennis, 76'Stevenson on for Cabraja, 81'Youan on for Kukharevych, 82'Miovski 45+8' (pen)Miovski 53'Ramadani 61'Clarkson 77'Kukharevych 69'Aberdeen 1.69Hibernian 1.5000.511.520153045607590HTWatkins on for Duk, 73'MacKenzie on for Coulson, 78'Kennedy on for Miovski, 89'Duncan on for Clarkson, 90'Melkersen on for Henderson, 65'Campbell on for Magennis, 76'Stevenson on for Cabraja, 81'Youan on for Kukharevych, 82'Miovski 45+8' (pen)Miovski 53'Ramadani 61'Clarkson 77'Kukharevych 69'1.691.50AberdeenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHibernian

1.69 +0.19xG1.50 +0.21
0.90Non-penalty xG1.50
2.89 +1.23xG on target1.29 +0.30
7 −6Shots17 0
6 +1.8Shots on target6 +0.9
4 +1.4Big chances1 −0.4
12 −9Touches in the opposition box24 −1
39% −12Possession61% +2
269 −114Passes416 −2
67% −7Pass accuracy77% −2
19% −22Field tilt81% +16
19 −20Final-third entries42 −8
6 −5Box entries13 −2
22.0 +7.3Passes per defensive action12.2 +2.3
5 +0.5Corners4 −3.3
15 0Tackles17 +3
7 −1.9Interceptions5 −2.5
45 +22Clearances11 −8
5 +1.7Saves1 −0.8
10 0Fouls7 −7
1 −0.4Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Duk 34', 0.17 xGCoulson 27', 0.09 xGDuk 63', 0.09 xGClarkson 77', 0.35 xG, goalMiovski 53', 0.16 xG, goalRamadani 61', 0.04 xG, goal39%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.35 xG, 1 goal22%0.20 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.20 xG, 2 goals29%0.26 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals10%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Kukharevych 31', 0.12 xGCadden 13', 0.11 xGNewell 90+3', 0.10 xGHenderson 23', 0.07 xGHanlon 45+1', 0.07 xGCadden 59', 0.05 xGMagennis 28', 0.04 xGKukharevych 66', 0.04 xGBushiri 24', 0.03 xGMagennis 37', 0.03 xGNewell 66', 0.03 xGKenneh 89', 0.03 xGNewell 8', 0.02 xGNewell 11', 0.02 xGKukharevych 16', 0.02 xGHenderson 50', 0.00 xGKukharevych 69', 0.71 xG, goal47%0.71 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.71 xG, 1 goal25%0.37 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals11%0.16 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals17%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHibernian

0.44 2 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.18 12 shots, 1 goal
0.17 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.29 3 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.33 5 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
53 min (51%) · Aberdeen 1.04, Hibernian 0.54 xG
Aberdeen ahead
51 min (49%) · Aberdeen 0.64, Hibernian 0.96 xG

Line-ups

24254258162022911RoosMcCrorieStewartScalesRichardsonBarronRamadaniClarksonCoulsonMiovskiDukGoalYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal90'78'89'73'Aberdeen 3-1-4-2Barry Robson1533412761131899MarshallPorteousBushiriHanlonCaddenMagennisKennehNewellCabrajaHendersonKukharevychYellow cardGoal76'81'65'82'Hibernian 3-5-2Lee Johnson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 73' Watkins for Duk · 1 assist
  • 78' MacKenzie for Coulson
  • 89' Kennedy for Miovski
  • 90' Duncan for Clarkson

Hibernian substitutes

  • 65' Melkersen for Henderson · 1 assist
  • 76' Campbell for Magennis · yellow card 90+5'
  • 81' Stevenson for Cabraja
  • 82' Youan for Kukharevych

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0453
McCrorieCB900.000.0000.0325
StewartCB900.000.0000.05415
ScalesCB9010.000.0010.0548
RichardsonDM900.000.0900.2148
BarronRWB900.000.0100.0434
Ramadani CM9010.040.0300.0718
ClarksonCM90110.350.1010.1314
Coulson LWB780.090.000−0.0118
MiovskiST8920.950.1110.1614
DukST730.260.000−0.0841
WatkinsFW1710.000.0910.0710
MacKenzieDF120.000.0000.0001
KennedyMF10.000.0000.0000
DuncanFW00.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Marshall GK900.000.0000.0321
PorteousCB900.000.0210.13114
BushiriCB900.030.0100.0897
HanlonCB900.070.0000.0234
CaddenRWB900.160.1240.25106
MagennisCM760.070.1110.0822
KennehCM900.030.0100.0223
NewellCM900.180.1020.1362
CabrajaLWB810.000.0100.0116
HendersonST650.070.0500.1650
KukharevychST8210.890.1110.0000
MelkersenFW2510.000.0110.0000
Campbell MF140.000.0100.0210
StevensonMF90.000.0110.0210
YouanFW80.000.0200.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Roos and McCrorie: 3 passesRoos and Coulson: 3 passesStewart and Barron: 3 passesMcCrorie and Ramadani: 3 passesMcCrorie and Miovski: 3 passesRamadani and Coulson: 3 passesRamadani and Duk: 3 passesBarron and Miovski: 3 passesStewart and Clarkson: 4 passesStewart and Miovski: 4 passesMcCrorie and Richardson: 4 passesRamadani and Barron: 4 passesClarkson and Miovski: 4 passesStewart and Ramadani: 5 passesRichardson and Barron: 5 passesClarkson and Coulson: 5 passesMcCrorie and Barron: 6 passesScales and Ramadani: 7 passesScales and Clarkson: 8 passesRoos and Scales: 11 passesScales and Coulson: 11 passesRoos and Stewart: 12 passesStewart and McCrorie: 12 passesScales and Stewart: 15 passesRoos: 22 completed passesScales: 32 completed passesStewart: 27 completed passesMcCrorie: 19 completed passesRamadani: 18 completed passesRichardson: 8 completed passesClarkson: 9 completed passesBarron: 14 completed passesCoulson: 11 completed passesMiovski: 9 completed passesDuk: 1 completed passes24452162520822911RoosScalesStewartMcCrorieRamadaniRichardsonClarksonBarronCoulsonMiovskiDukStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Hanlon: 4 passesPorteous and Kenneh: 4 passesCadden and Kenneh: 4 passesNewell and Kenneh: 4 passesKenneh and Kukharevych: 4 passesBushiri and Newell: 5 passesHanlon and Newell: 5 passesPorteous and Henderson: 5 passesCabraja and Magennis: 5 passesCabraja and Henderson: 5 passesNewell and Kukharevych: 5 passesNewell and Henderson: 5 passesPorteous and Newell: 7 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 8 passesBushiri and Hanlon: 9 passesCadden and Newell: 9 passesCabraja and Newell: 9 passesHanlon and Porteous: 10 passesCadden and Magennis: 10 passesPorteous and Cadden: 11 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 12 passesBushiri and Porteous: 12 passesCadden and Henderson: 14 passesMarshall: 14 completed passesBushiri: 26 completed passesHanlon: 22 completed passesPorteous: 30 completed passesCadden: 24 completed passesCabraja: 20 completed passesNewell: 27 completed passesKenneh: 13 completed passesMagennis: 13 completed passesKukharevych: 5 completed passesHenderson: 18 completed passes1334512311679918MarshallBushiriHanlonPorteousCaddenCabrajaNewellKennehMagennisKukharevychHendersonStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ScalesStewart10
McCrorieStewart9
ScalesRoos8
ScalesCoulson8
RoosStewart7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriPorteous18
MarshallBushiri13
HanlonBushiri13
PorteousCadden9
HanlonCabraja8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

6+1.25−1.221+3.516+8.08+2.15−0.93−3.13−3.27+0.610+4.27+1.850.03−0.65+0.311+5.12−1.92−2.82−1.26+2.62−2.01−0.41−0.50−0.81−0.11−1.21+0.10−0.20−0.60−0.10−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Hibernian

3−0.35−0.39−0.89+2.14−0.46−0.42−2.67−0.76+1.26+0.94+1.83−2.27−0.44+0.93−1.22−0.98+4.04−0.94+1.60−2.20−1.120.04+1.50−0.81+0.10−1.40−0.72+1.03−3.82−3.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.030.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.030.020.030.010.020.060.020.01−0.160.110.010.43LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.030.010.050.020.010.080.010.030.030.010.100.050.020.030.050.010.30LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackAberdeen1.14 → 1.17Hibernian1.19 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.22 → 1.22Hibernian1.06 → 1.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six82%89%+7
11th1%<1%−1
Hibernian
Top six86%81%−5

From the forecast before the match (4 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHibernian
Expected goals1.211.09
Win38%32%
Expected Points1.441.26
Clean sheet34%30%

Aberdeen 38%Draw 30%Hibernian 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%1%11%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHibernian win
Aberdeen
Top six82%89%81%75%
11th1%<1%<1%1%
Hibernian
Top six86%81%86%92%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L1–429 OctRangers (A)xG 0.42–4.47
  2. W2–122 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.11–0.71
  3. W2–016 OctHearts (H)xG 1.73–1.36
  4. L0–48 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.89–2.25
  5. W4–11 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 2.33–0.47
  6. L1–317 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.66–2.80

Hibernian

  1. W3–029 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.87–0.82
  2. L1–221 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.88–0.85
  3. L1–615 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.44–2.74
  4. L0–111 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.31–0.56
  5. W1–08 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.67–0.34
  6. W2–01 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.66–0.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHibernian
Position4th3rd
Played1213
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠1–⁠56–⁠2–⁠5
Points19 (1.58 per game)20 (1.54 per game)
Expected Points per game1.341.62
Goals23–⁠2017–⁠16
xG per game1.50–⁠1.651.29–⁠0.96
Home: points, xG per game2.40, 2.57–⁠1.202.00, 1.42–⁠0.80
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.74–⁠1.981.00, 1.14–⁠1.16
ManagerBarry Robson (0)Lee Johnson (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackAberdeen1.14, 5thHibernian1.19, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.22, 4thHibernian1.06, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.14Hibernian attack: 1.191.191.14HibernianAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.22Hibernian defence: 1.061.221.06

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+15%+12%−5%−31%
Counter-attacks+71%+41%−13%+114%
Set pieces−24%+50%+28%−15%
Penalties+127%+127%+5%−48%
Headers+37%+4%+3%−24%
Left side−26%+9%+23%−22%
Centre+15%+10%−29%−24%
Right side+30%+53%+31%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−26%−16%Centre+15%−24%Right side+30%−22%Open play+15%−31%Counter-attacks+71%+114%Set pieces−24%−15%Headers+37%−24%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+23%+53%Centre−29%+10%Right side+31%+9%Open play−5%+12%Counter-attacks−13%+41%Set pieces+28%+50%Headers+3%+4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHibernian

1.50xG1.29
1.65xG against0.96
51%Possession59%
12.6Shots17.2
14.8Shots against9.8
4.2Shots on target5.1
2.6Big chances1.4
21.0Touches in the opposition box24.7
383Passes418
74%Pass accuracy79%
4.5Corners7.3
42%Field tilt65%
39.4Final-third entries49.6
10.8Box entries14.6
14.7Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.351.40
Ahead302.221.24
Behind220.802.65

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.001.07
Ahead201.520.63
Behind341.461.04

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.142–1
16–300.240.224–3
31–450.320.335–4
46–600.260.293–5
61–750.300.295–4
76–900.280.374–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.121–5
16–300.070.180–3
31–450.270.123–1
46–600.340.194–2
61–750.220.145–2
76–900.250.224–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 12Richardson 9McCrorie 3Stewart 12Scales 9McCrorie 3Coulson 8Duk 3Scales 1Ramadani 10Richardson 2Barron 1McCrorie 6Clarkson 3Kennedy 1Besuijen 4Kennedy 3Barron 2Besuijen 5Clarkson 3Ramadani 2Hayes 9MacKenzie 2Clarkson 1Miovski 124-2-3-1 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 13Cadden 11Porteous 2Porteous 10Bushiri 5Hanlon 11Cabraja 9Kukharevych 2Campbell 1Kenneh 10Campbell 5Doyle-Hayes 2Newell 7Henderson 2Boyle 6Melkersen 3Cadden 2Newell 4Campbell 4Henderson 2Youan 6Henderson 2Boyle 1Kukharevych 5Youan 4Boyle 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 September 2022Hibernian3–1AberdeenxG 2.80–0.66
7 May 2022Hibernian1–1AberdeenxG 2.02–0.63
19 March 2022Aberdeen3–1HibernianxG 2.19–0.55
22 December 2021Hibernian1–0AberdeenxG 0.41–0.70
23 October 2021Aberdeen1–0HibernianxG 0.24–0.22
12 May 2021Aberdeen0–1HibernianxG 1.28–0.44

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 4, Hibernian won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–9 and xG 0.98–1.09 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski12980800.720.02
Duk4481520.420.04
Besuijen9746300.220.21
Hayes9750130.110.15

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych7526210.370.16
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan10820130.230.14
Henderson6480120.230.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.