Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Aberdeen 4–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 4 December 2021, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 17 · Half-time 3–1 · Attendance 8,002

Aberdeen Watkins 6', 43', Ramirez 9', 71'

St. Mirren Tanser 42'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals41
xG4.400.95
Expected Points2.900.07

Aberdeen 95%Draw 4%St. Mirren 1%

Most likely score 4–1, 10%. Final score 4–1, 10%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%7%3%1%5%1%4%1%4%1%7%10%10%8%9%8%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTJenks on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 59'McLennan on for Hedges, 78'McGinn on for Watkins, 83'Main on for Brophy, 29'Dennis on for Millar, 67'Erhahon on for Ronan, 75'Watkins 6'Ramirez 9'Watkins 43'Ramirez 71'Tanser 42'Aberdeen 4.40St. Mirren 0.9502460153045607590HTJenks on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 59'McLennan on for Hedges, 78'McGinn on for Watkins, 83'Main on for Brophy, 29'Dennis on for Millar, 67'Erhahon on for Ronan, 75'Watkins 6'Ramirez 9'Watkins 43'Ramirez 71'Tanser 42'4.400.95AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

4.40 +3.44xG0.95 −0.13
4.62 +3.62xG on target0.59 −0.39
24 +12Shots13 0
11 +6.6Shots on target6 +1.4
6 +5.0Big chances0 −1.0
38 +21Touches in the opposition box28 +8
50% −8Possession50% 0
390 −71Passes376 +16
73% −4Pass accuracy70% +1
62% +6Field tilt38% −10
32 −7Final-third entries27 −6
18 +8.9Box entries7 −3.4
17.6 +3Passes per defensive action11.7 −1
6 +0.9Corners9 +3.2
11 0Tackles16 +3
8 −0.4Interceptions13 +3.6
32 +15Clearances16 −1
4 +3.0Saves7 +3.5
13 0Fouls7 −5
0 −1.4Offsides2 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Watkins 6', 0.42 xGHedges 69', 0.38 xGOjo 66', 0.34 xGHedges 69', 0.24 xGOjo 66', 0.14 xGHedges 11', 0.10 xGJenks 64', 0.10 xGJenks 62', 0.08 xGRamirez 69', 0.08 xGOjo 73', 0.07 xGRamirez 30', 0.06 xGWatkins 26', 0.04 xGHedges 37', 0.04 xGRamirez 49', 0.04 xGFerguson 64', 0.04 xGBrown 73', 0.04 xGHayes 30', 0.02 xGHedges 41', 0.02 xGHedges 64', 0.02 xGHayes 48', 0.01 xGRamirez 71', 0.98 xG, goalWatkins 6', 0.68 xG, goalRamirez 9', 0.26 xG, goalWatkins 43', 0.19 xG, goal46%2.00 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 2.00 xG, 2 goals40%1.77 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.77 xG, 2 goals11%0.47 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals3%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Shaughnessy 57', 0.20 xGBrophy 3', 0.10 xGMillar 29', 0.10 xGTanser 86', 0.10 xGMillar 18', 0.06 xGMillar 27', 0.06 xGDunne 55', 0.06 xGMcGrath 18', 0.05 xGFraser 30', 0.04 xGShaughnessy 29', 0.03 xGTanser 86', 0.02 xGMain 39', 0.01 xGTanser 42', 0.13 xG, goal21%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals41%0.39 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal19%0.18 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals19%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

3.04 16 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.30 5 shots, 1 goal
0.14 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 0 goals
1.22 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.55 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (7%) · Aberdeen 1.10, St. Mirren 0.10 xG
Aberdeen ahead
84 min (93%) · Aberdeen 3.30, St. Mirren 0.85 xG

Line-ups

11622717198141179LewisOjoMcCrorieBatesHayesFergusonBrownEmmanuel-ThomasHedgesWatkinsRamirezGoalGoalGoalGoal59'78'83'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Stephen Glass141822446834379AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserMillarPowerFlynnTanserRonanMcGrathBrophyGoalYellow card67'75'29'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 59' Jenks for Emmanuel-Thomas · 1 assist
  • 78' McLennan for Hedges
  • 83' McGinn for Watkins

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 29' Main for Brophy
  • 67' Dennis for Millar
  • 75' Erhahon for Ronan

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0100.0651
OjoRB900.550.2820.0666
McCrorieCB900.000.0000.0118
BatesCB900.000.0000.02211
HayesLB900.030.6140.3853
FergusonDM900.040.0210.11810
BrownDM900.040.0100.0055
Emmanuel-ThomasRW5910.000.3410.1436
HedgesAM7810.800.1030.1462
WatkinsLW8321.340.2330.2244
RamirezST9021.420.000−0.0110
JenksMF3110.190.7440.2910
McLennanMF120.000.0100.0220
McGinnMF70.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0690
ShaughnessyCB900.230.0110.0326
DunneCB900.060.0010.0446
FraserCB900.040.0900.0749
MillarRWB6710.210.1010.0612
PowerCM900.000.0410.0643
FlynnCM900.000.0100.0356
Tanser LWB9010.260.1110.0229
RonanAM750.000.0210.0472
McGrathAM900.050.1430.1144
BrophyST290.100.0000.0110
MainFW610.010.000−0.0101
DennisFW230.000.0100.0102
ErhahonMF150.000.0000.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Bates and Brown: 3 passesBates and Ferguson: 3 passesHayes and Hedges: 3 passesLewis and Bates: 4 passesOjo and Watkins: 4 passesBates and Hayes: 4 passesBrown and Ferguson: 4 passesFerguson and Watkins: 4 passesFerguson and Ramirez: 4 passesLewis and Emmanuel-Thomas: 5 passesHayes and Emmanuel-Thomas: 5 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Ramirez: 5 passesLewis and McCrorie: 6 passesOjo and Hedges: 6 passesHayes and Ferguson: 6 passesFerguson and Hedges: 6 passesHedges and Watkins: 6 passesOjo and Brown: 7 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Watkins: 8 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Hedges: 9 passesOjo and McCrorie: 12 passesOjo and Emmanuel-Thomas: 13 passesOjo and Ferguson: 14 passesLewis: 12 completed passesOjo: 31 completed passesBates: 12 completed passesMcCrorie: 16 completed passesHayes: 14 completed passesBrown: 13 completed passesFerguson: 23 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 23 completed passesHedges: 15 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passesRamirez: 8 completed passes11627217819141179LewisOjoBatesMcCrorieHayesBrownFergusonEmmanuel-ThomasHedgesWatkinsRamirezStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Dunne: 3 passesShaughnessy and Power: 3 passesDunne and Fraser: 3 passesMillar and Power: 3 passesTanser and Power: 3 passesTanser and Ronan: 3 passesPower and Ronan: 3 passesAlnwick and Tanser: 4 passesFraser and Millar: 4 passesFraser and Power: 4 passesTanser and McGrath: 4 passesDunne and Ronan: 5 passesFraser and Flynn: 5 passesFraser and Ronan: 5 passesMillar and Ronan: 5 passesMillar and McGrath: 8 passesAlnwick: 8 completed passesShaughnessy: 8 completed passesDunne: 7 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesMillar: 9 completed passesTanser: 7 completed passesPower: 13 completed passesFlynn: 8 completed passesMcGrath: 10 completed passesRonan: 12 completed passesBrophy: 0 completed passes141822443687439AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserMillarTanserPowerFlynnMcGrathRonanBrophyStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
OjoFerguson15
BrownOjo11
FergusonHayes10
OjoHedges9
OjoBrown9

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McGrathMillar11
FraserDunne11
DunneAlnwick10
FlynnFraser8
McGrathFraser8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

7+2.110+4.222+10.99+4.26+0.79+1.75−0.42−2.96−0.57−1.610+4.65+0.61−2.17+1.05−0.84+0.92−1.12−0.12−0.65−0.10−2.31+0.12+0.92+0.81−1.50−0.60−0.10−0.70−0.22+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

St. Mirren

3−1.14−1.718+4.13−2.93−2.28+1.17−0.18+2.28+0.98+0.84−1.83−1.47+0.97−0.16+1.71−1.93+0.55+1.27+3.11−1.21−0.50−1.11−0.93+0.80−1.00−0.40−0.80−0.22+1.62−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.040.010.010.020.020.010.020.02−0.010.030.050.060.020.020.110.060.150.040.100.030.060.020.240.32LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.010.020.020.020.040.010.020.020.010.030.010.020.010.030.02−0.010.010.040.060.050.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.09 → 1.18St. Mirren1.00 → 1.00Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.02 → 1.03St. Mirren1.30 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six56%66%+10
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six12%7%−5
11th14%17%+3
Bottom9%12%+3
Motherwell
Top six57%55%−2
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (4 December 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.340.82
Win48%22%
Expected Points1.740.96
Clean sheet44%26%

Aberdeen 48%Draw 29%St. Mirren 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 42%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%5%1%10%8%3%1%5%4%2%2%1%12%15%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 December 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six56%66%51%40%
11th2%1%3%4%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six12%7%12%22%
11th14%17%14%10%
Bottom9%12%9%4%
Motherwell
Top six57%55%59%59%
11th3%3%4%3%
Bottom1%1%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W2–01 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.18–0.08
  2. L1–228 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.85–2.31
  3. L0–120 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.69–0.58
  4. L0–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.94–0.47
  5. W2–130 OctHearts (H)xG 1.11–0.95
  6. D2–227 OctRangers (A)xG 1.02–2.34

St. Mirren

  1. D0–01 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.89–0.93
  2. L0–227 NovHearts (A)xG 1.16–2.16
  3. D1–120 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.91–0.76
  4. D0–06 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.76–0.18
  5. L0–130 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.79–0.66
  6. D2–227 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.27–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position7th8th
Played1616
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠3–⁠83–⁠8–⁠5
Points18 (1.12 per game)17 (1.06 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.29
Goals18–⁠2116–⁠24
xG per game0.96–⁠1.001.08–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game1.62, 1.03–⁠0.660.88, 1.04–⁠1.07
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.90–⁠1.331.25, 1.11–⁠1.74
ManagerStephen Glass (21)Jim Goodwin (54)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.09, 5thSt. Mirren1.00, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.02, 3rdSt. Mirren1.30, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecAberdeen attack: 1.09St. Mirren attack: 1.001.091.00St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecAberdeen defence: 1.02St. Mirren defence: 1.301.301.02

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%−32%−30%+29%
Counter-attacks−54%+20%+19%+30%
Set piecesaverageaverage+40%−19%
Penalties−57%+28%−15%+28%
Headersaverage−18%+36%−12%
Left side−22%−14%−11%+27%
Centre−23%−30%−1%+9%
Right side+6%−10%−25%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−22%+22%Centre−23%+9%Right side+6%+27%Open play−19%+29%Counter-attacks−54%+30%Set piecesaverage−19%Headersaverage−12%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−11%−10%Centre−1%−30%Right side−25%−14%Open play−30%−32%Counter-attacks+19%+20%Set pieces+40%averageHeaders+36%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.96xG1.08
1.00xG against1.40
58%Possession50%
12.5Shots13.2
8.4Shots against14.0
4.4Shots on target4.6
1.0Big chances1.0
17.3Touches in the opposition box19.7
461Passes360
77%Pass accuracy68%
5.1Corners5.8
56%Field tilt47%
39.1Final-third entries32.5
9.1Box entries10.4
14.5Passes per defensive action13.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.801.11
Ahead190.690.89
Behind231.520.86

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.171.04
Ahead181.001.76
Behind240.951.86

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.131–2
16–300.200.095–3
31–450.180.192–3
46–600.140.224–7
61–750.150.114–2
76–900.170.262–4

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.154–1
16–300.120.191–5
31–450.150.353–6
46–600.230.282–4
61–750.160.283–6
76–900.330.163–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWLewis 14Woods 2Ramsay 9Ojo 4Gurr 3Bates 8Gallagher 6Brown 4McCrorie 11Considine 2MacKenzie 1MacKenzie 7Campbell 5Hayes 3McGeouch 6Hedges 4Ojo 3Brown 11Jenks 3Ferguson 12Longstaff 3Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasOjo 5Hedges 5Ferguson 2Ramirez 11Watkins 3Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasHayes 4Watkins 4Ramirez 34-3-3 in 5 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (5), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTAlnwick 16Fraser 16McAllister 1Tait 1Shaughnessy 14McCarthy 11Dunne 5Tait 4Ronan 3Millar 3Power 14McGrath 3Reid 2Erhahon 6Flynn 5Tanser 16McGrath 5Ronan 4Millar 3Main 8Dennis 1Brophy 14McGrath 5Ronan 43-4-1-2 in 6 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 September 2021St. Mirren3–2AberdeenxG 1.50–1.11
13 February 2021Aberdeen0–0St. MirrenxG 0.51–0.66
5 December 2020St. Mirren1–1AberdeenxG 2.58–0.39
2 October 2020Aberdeen2–1St. MirrenxG 0.92–0.48

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 1, St. Mirren won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–5 and xG 0.73–1.31 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watkins7658100.240.09
Ramsay9726040.010.28
Ramirez151,309620.230.04
Ferguson141,251310.190.08

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tanser161,312130.080.27
Tait6644010.200.12
Brophy141,234500.280.01
McGrath141,244210.120.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.