Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Livingston 0–1 Ross County

Saturday 8 October 2022, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 10 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Graham Grainger · Attendance 3,696

Ross County Edwards 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonRoss County
Goals01
xG1.730.53
Expected Points2.270.49

Livingston 68%Draw 23%Ross County 9%

Most likely score 1–0, 17%. Final score 0–1, 5%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%5%2%11%2%9%6%1%3%2%17%13%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTStephen Kelly on for Shinnie, 66'Anderson on for Bahamboula, 69'Penrice on for Montano, 80'Johnson on for Watson, 46'Hiwula-Mayifuila on for Olaigbe, 62'Samuel on for Edwards, 79'Edwards 73'Livingston 1.73Ross County 0.5300.511.520153045607590HTStephen Kelly on for Shinnie, 66'Anderson on for Bahamboula, 69'Penrice on for Montano, 80'Johnson on for Watson, 46'Hiwula-Mayifuila on for Olaigbe, 62'Samuel on for Edwards, 79'Edwards 73'1.730.53LivingstonRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonRoss County

1.73 +0.83xG0.53 −0.17
0.83 −0.24xG on target0.47 −0.13
22 +13.1Shots5 −3.0
3 −0.2Shots on target1 −0.9
2 0.0Big chances1 +0.2
40 +14Touches in the opposition box7 −9
61% +21Possession39% −4
399 +118Passes261 −55
67% +2Pass accuracy49% −15
75% +30Field tilt25% −11
48 +19Final-third entries24 −4
20 +11.2Box entries4 −2.7
10.5 −5Passes per defensive action10.0 −5
9 +5.8Corners2 −1.1
11 −2Tackles18 +2
9 −2Interceptions15 +5
4 −19Clearances35 +13
0 −1.9Saves3 −0.3
10 −4Fouls18 +6
3 +2.4Offsides2 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Guthrie 14', 0.40 xGObileye 68', 0.38 xGObileye 86', 0.09 xGSean Kelly 26', 0.08 xGNouble 45+2', 0.08 xGHolt 83', 0.08 xGBahamboula 45+2', 0.07 xGNouble 51', 0.07 xGGuthrie 90+1', 0.07 xGHolt 39', 0.06 xGPittman 54', 0.06 xGShinnie 6', 0.04 xGObileye 24', 0.04 xGNouble 25', 0.03 xGStephen Kelly 83', 0.03 xGGuthrie 12', 0.02 xGDevlin 39', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 83', 0.02 xGObileye 85', 0.02 xGStephen Kelly 86', 0.02 xGGuthrie 9', 0.01 xGHolt 46', 0.01 xG45%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.78 xG, 0 goals22%0.38 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals11%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals18%0.32 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Edwards 41', 0.07 xGOlaigbe 60', 0.06 xGHiwula-Mayifuila 73', 0.06 xGHiwula-Mayifuila 63', 0.03 xGEdwards 73', 0.30 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals70%0.37 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal30%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonRoss County

0.99 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.47 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.74 9 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
75 min (79%) · Livingston 1.38, Ross County 0.53 xG
Ross County ahead
20 min (21%) · Livingston 0.35, Ross County 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12624112218872819GeorgeDevlinObileyeSean KellyMontanoShinnieHoltPittmanBahamboulaGuthrieNouble80'66'69'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale115563422781726LaidlawWatsonBaldwinIacovittiPurringtonCancolaTillsonEdwardsCallachanOlaigbeWhiteYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'79'62'Ross County 4-2-3-1Malky Mackay

Livingston substitutes

  • 66' Stephen Kelly for Shinnie
  • 69' Anderson for Bahamboula
  • 80' Penrice for Montano

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Johnson for Watson
  • 62' Hiwula-Mayifuila for Olaigbe
  • 79' Samuel for Edwards · yellow card 90+3'

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0430
DevlinRB900.020.041−0.0852
ObileyeCB900.530.0420.0213
Sean KellyCB900.080.7030.36183
MontanoLB800.000.6110.2593
ShinnieCM660.040.0100.0111
HoltCM900.150.1930.19113
PittmanCM900.060.041−0.0710
BahamboulaRW690.070.0400.1262
GuthrieST900.510.021−0.0502
NoubleLW900.180.0930.1283
Stephen KellyMF240.080.0000.0012
AndersonFW210.000.0300.0510
PenriceDF100.000.0000.0110

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0111
Watson RB460.000.0000.0334
BaldwinCB900.000.0000.02116
Iacovitti CB900.000.0000.03311
PurringtonLB900.000.0200.0856
CancolaDM900.000.0310.0427
TillsonDM900.000.0110.0107
EdwardsRW7910.370.0000.0762
CallachanAM900.000.0110.0023
OlaigbeLW620.060.0000.0103
WhiteST900.000.0000.0019
JohnsonDF440.000.0000.0214
Hiwula-MayifuilaFW280.100.0100.0304
Samuel FW110.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

George and Obileye: 5 passesDevlin and Sean Kelly: 5 passesSean Kelly and Montano: 5 passesSean Kelly and Guthrie: 5 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 7 passesGuthrie and Nouble: 7 passesDevlin and Obileye: 8 passesMontano and Holt: 8 passesHolt and Bahamboula: 8 passesDevlin and Bahamboula: 9 passesSean Kelly and Pittman: 9 passesMontano and Guthrie: 9 passesMontano and Nouble: 9 passesHolt and Nouble: 9 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 10 passesMontano and Pittman: 10 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 11 passesDevlin and Holt: 11 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 12 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 15 passesGeorge: 16 completed passesDevlin: 28 completed passesObileye: 19 completed passesSean Kelly: 37 completed passesMontano: 30 completed passesPittman: 16 completed passesHolt: 39 completed passesShinnie: 12 completed passesBahamboula: 15 completed passesGuthrie: 7 completed passesNouble: 19 completed passes12624118182272819GeorgeDevlinObileyeSean KellyMontanoPittmanHoltShinnieBahamboulaGuthrieNoubleStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Ross County

Watson and Tillson: 3 passesWatson and Olaigbe: 3 passesPurrington and Callachan: 3 passesEdwards and Callachan: 3 passesPurrington and Cancola: 4 passesPurrington and White: 4 passesCallachan and Olaigbe: 4 passesLaidlaw and White: 5 passesLaidlaw: 7 completed passesWatson: 6 completed passesBaldwin: 4 completed passesIacovitti: 4 completed passesPurrington: 10 completed passesCancola: 3 completed passesTillson: 6 completed passesEdwards: 7 completed passesCallachan: 7 completed passesOlaigbe: 3 completed passesWhite: 6 completed passes115563422781726LaidlawWatsonBaldwinIacovittiPurringtonCancolaTillsonEdwardsCallachanOlaigbeWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
Sean KellyObileye13
GeorgeSean Kelly11
HoltSean Kelly10
MontanoGuthrie9
HoltNouble9

Ross County

FromToPasses
PurringtonWhite6
LaidlawWhite6
PurringtonCallachan5
CallachanOlaigbe5
PurringtonCancola4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

2−3.11−5.93−4.62−3.011+2.84−2.24−1.211+4.96−2.23−3.66−0.14+1.48+4.05−2.92−1.95+2.01−0.84+0.24−0.81−1.45+4.21+0.11−0.411+9.21−0.20−0.22+1.60−0.41+0.92−9.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Ross County

12+5.912+3.026+10.713+5.15−0.610+4.315+8.15−1.77−1.850.09+3.08+4.64+0.32−3.31−3.36+1.44+0.430.00−3.67+3.42−0.10−2.01+0.21−0.44+3.10−0.80−0.30−0.80−0.10−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.020.040.060.050.010.020.020.060.050.060.08−0.020.180.070.04−0.02−0.220.140.080.26LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.030.040.03−0.010.020.01−0.010.070.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackLivingston1.03 → 1.04Ross County0.86 → 0.86Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.25 → 1.23Ross County1.53 → 1.52

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six48%35%−13
11th3%6%+3
Bottom1%3%+2
Ross County
Top six1%4%+3
11th28%26%−2
Bottom39%28%−11
Dundee United
11th27%24%−3
Bottom36%41%+5
Motherwell
Top six49%52%+3
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (8 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonRoss County
Expected goals1.560.82
Win54%19%
Expected Points1.890.84
Clean sheet44%21%

Livingston 54%Draw 27%Ross County 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+10%7%3%5%1%9%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%14%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawRoss County win
Livingston
Top six48%55%44%35%
11th3%2%4%6%
Bottom1%<1%1%3%
Ross County
Top six1%1%1%4%
11th28%28%28%26%
Bottom39%44%37%28%
Dundee United
11th27%28%25%24%
Bottom36%33%37%41%
Motherwell
Top six49%47%50%52%
Bottom1%1%<1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L1–21 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.45–0.77
  2. W1–017 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 0.83–0.11
  3. W1–03 SepHearts (H)xG 1.19–0.69
  4. L0–527 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.53–4.14
  5. L0–120 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.27–1.43
  6. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.45–1.86

Ross County

  1. L0–54 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–2.58
  2. L0–21 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.66–1.66
  3. D0–017 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.39–0.82
  4. D1–13 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.83
  5. L0–427 AugRangers (A)xG 0.48–3.19
  6. W1–020 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.65–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonRoss County
Position8th11th
Played89
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠0–⁠41–⁠2–⁠6
Points12 (1.50 per game)5 (0.56 per game)
Expected Points per game1.210.86
Goals7–⁠114–⁠18
xG per game0.90–⁠1.330.70–⁠1.51
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 1.01–⁠0.950.80, 0.72–⁠1.50
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.79–⁠1.710.25, 0.69–⁠1.51
ManagerDavid Martindale (69)Malky Mackay (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackLivingston1.03, 7thRoss County0.86, 12thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.25, 6thRoss County1.53, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctLivingston attack: 1.03Ross County attack: 0.861.030.86Ross CountyLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctLivingston defence: 1.25Ross County defence: 1.531.531.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%−25%−54%+24%
Counter-attacks−100%−88%−44%+142%
Set pieces−7%+48%+6%−16%
Penalties−15%+155%−100%−24%
Headers−20%+48%−36%+9%
Left side−19%−17%−18%+13%
Centre−41%−17%−39%+25%
Right side−32%+1%−64%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdRoss County concededLeft side−19%+22%Centre−41%+25%Right side−32%+13%Open play−36%+24%Counter-attacks−100%+142%Set pieces−7%−16%Headers−20%+9%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdLivingston concededLeft side−18%+1%Centre−39%−17%Right side−64%−17%Open play−54%−25%Counter-attacks−44%−88%Set pieces+6%+48%Headers−36%+48%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonRoss County

0.90xG0.70
1.33xG against1.51
40%Possession43%
8.9Shots8.0
13.0Shots against17.0
3.2Shots on target1.9
2.0Big chances0.8
26.5Touches in the opposition box16.3
281Passes316
65%Pass accuracy64%
3.2Corners3.1
45%Field tilt36%
28.7Final-third entries28.0
8.8Box entries6.7
15.9Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.941.17
Ahead350.760.93
Behind131.142.96

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level600.691.38
Ahead00.001.12
Behind290.741.77

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.092–0
16–300.140.042–0
31–450.160.260–1
46–600.060.281–2
61–750.130.390–6
76–900.240.282–2

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.170–0
16–300.180.220–2
31–450.090.280–1
46–600.060.461–8
61–750.130.120–0
76–900.180.273–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 8Devlin 8Fitzwater 5Obileye 8Sean Kelly 3Montano 6Holt 1Cancar 1Omeonga 5Bahamboula 2Holt 7Sean Kelly 5Pittman 4Goncalves 1Shinnie 5Omeonga 3Pittman 4Penrice 2Nouble 1Nouble 7Guthrie 14-3-2-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 9Johnson 6Randall 2Watson 1Baldwin 8Watson 1Iacovitti 9Purrington 9Callachan 6Paton 2Loturi 1Cancola 7Tillson 2Sims 2Edwards 2Akio 2Dhanda 3Samuel 3Callachan 2Edwards 2Sims 2Olaigbe 2Hiwula-Mayifuila 5White 44-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 February 2022Ross County1–1LivingstonxG 0.48–1.75
18 December 2021Livingston1–1Ross CountyxG 1.00–0.57
23 October 2021Ross County2–3LivingstonxG 2.11–0.57
10 January 2021Livingston3–1Ross CountyxG 1.74–1.28
6 November 2020Ross County1–1LivingstonxG 0.62–1.07
29 August 2020Livingston1–0Ross CountyxG 1.31–0.38

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 3, Ross County won 0, and 3 were drawn. Goals 10–6 and xG 1.24–0.91 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nouble8697210.210.12
Sean Kelly8642020.130.08
Montano6535300.090.06
Holt8688020.030.12

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edwards4462110.170.11
Johnson6535000.050.08
Purrington9766000.030.09
Callachan8679000.070.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.