Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 2–1 Livingston

Saturday 1 October 2022, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 5,366

St. Mirren Baccus 69', Greive 90' · Ayunga sent off 76'

Livingston Anderson 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenLivingston
Goals21
xG0.771.45
Non-penalty xG0.770.66
Expected Points0.731.96

St. Mirren 14%Draw 31%Livingston 55%

Most likely score 1–1, 21%. Final score 2–1, 6%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%13%4%4%13%4%1%6%5%1%1%19%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAyunga (St. Mirren), red card 76'Greive on for Kiltie, 59'Strain on for Gogic, 60'Flynn on for Fraser, 67'Shaughnessy on for Baccus, 75'Anderson on for Penrice and Stephen Kelly on for Omeonga, 72'Shinnie on for Sean Kelly, 81'Baccus 69'Greive 90'Anderson 86'Livingston 1.45St. Mirren 0.7700.511.520153045607590HTAyunga (St. Mirren), red card 76'Greive on for Kiltie, 59'Strain on for Gogic, 60'Flynn on for Fraser, 67'Shaughnessy on for Baccus, 75'Anderson on for Penrice and Stephen Kelly on for Omeonga, 72'Shinnie on for Sean Kelly, 81'Baccus 69'Greive 90'Anderson 86'1.450.77St. MirrenLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenLivingston

0.77 −0.43xG1.45 +0.63
0.77Non-penalty xG0.66
1.66 +0.57xG on target0.78 −0.33
8 −2.4Shots10 +1.3
3 +0.1Shots on target3 −0.3
2 −0.1Big chances4 +2.3
12Touches in the opposition box28 +3
41% +5Possession59% +22
238 −19Passes341 +68
55% −4Pass accuracy64% −1
31% −9Field tilt69% +28
22 −8Final-third entries44 +17
4 −7.1Box entries9 +0.3
17.8 −1Passes per defensive action12.4 −4
6 −0.3Corners7 +4.3
11 −3Tackles8 −5
8 0.0Interceptions10 −1.1
40 +20Clearances16 −8
2 −0.4Saves1 −1.0
16 +3Fouls11 −3
3 +1.7Offsides0 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Gogic 8', 0.12 xGShaughnessy 90', 0.09 xGBaccus 45', 0.04 xGBaccus 45+1', 0.03 xGTanser 88', 0.02 xGGallagher 89', 0.02 xGGreive 90', 0.37 xG, goalBaccus 69', 0.08 xG, goal47%0.36 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.36 xG, 1 goal43%0.33 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Anderson 76', 0.10 xGBahamboula 14', 0.09 xGPittman 28', 0.08 xGPittman 20', 0.05 xGObileye 50', 0.05 xGGuthrie 76', 0.04 xGObileye 90+4', 0.02 xGAnderson 90+6', 0.01 xGAnderson 86', 0.22 xG, goal33%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.22 xG, 1 goal43%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals22%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenLivingston

0.12 2 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.41 4 shots, 1 goal
0.65 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.26 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (76%) · St. Mirren 0.77, Livingston 0.27 xG
St. Mirren ahead
23 min (24%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Livingston 1.18 xG

Line-ups

122133118317166117CarsonFraserGogicGallagherDunneTanserBaccusErhahonO'HaraKiltieAyungaYellow cardGoalYellow cardSent off67'60'75'59'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson12624733818291928GeorgeDevlinObileyeSean KellyBahamboulaOmeongaPittmanHoltPenriceNoubleGuthrieYellow card81'72'72'Livingston 3-5-2David Martindale

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 59' Greive for Kiltie · goal 90'
  • 60' Strain for Gogic
  • 67' Flynn for Fraser · yellow card 90+1', 1 assist
  • 75' Shaughnessy for Baccus · 1 assist

Livingston substitutes

  • 72' Stephen Kelly for Omeonga
  • 72' Anderson for Penrice · goal 86'
  • 81' Shinnie for Sean Kelly

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0322
FraserRWB670.000.0100.00211
GogicCB600.120.0100.0335
Gallagher CB900.020.0100.0247
DunneCB900.000.0100.0677
TanserLWB900.020.1110.0335
Baccus CM7510.150.0000.0113
ErhahonCM900.000.0100.0224
O'HaraCM900.000.0000.0008
KiltieST590.000.0610.2121
Ayunga ST760.000.0100.0211
GreiveFW3110.370.000−0.0110
StrainMF300.000.0000.0002
Flynn MF2310.000.0510.0721
ShaughnessyDF1510.090.0010.0004

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0643
DevlinCB900.000.0300.16113
ObileyeCB900.070.0000.0126
Sean KellyCB810.790.0610.0962
Bahamboula RWB900.090.1310.3080
OmeongaCM720.000.0100.0116
PittmanCM900.130.0700.0400
HoltCM900.000.0900.0435
PenriceLWB720.000.010−0.0227
NoubleST9010.000.1710.2662
GuthrieST900.040.011−0.0102
Stephen KellyMF180.000.1010.0310
AndersonFW1810.330.0000.0000
ShinnieFW90.000.0100.0331

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gallagher and Tanser: 3 passesTanser and Kiltie: 3 passesBaccus and Erhahon: 3 passesAyunga and Kiltie: 3 passesFraser and Baccus: 4 passesGogic and Baccus: 4 passesFraser and Gogic: 5 passesFraser and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Ayunga: 5 passesGogic and Gallagher: 5 passesDunne and Kiltie: 5 passesBaccus and Ayunga: 5 passesCarson and Dunne: 6 passesCarson and Gallagher: 6 passesDunne and O'Hara: 7 passesFraser and Kiltie: 8 passesCarson: 9 completed passesFraser: 15 completed passesGogic: 15 completed passesDunne: 16 completed passesGallagher: 13 completed passesTanser: 6 completed passesBaccus: 10 completed passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesErhahon: 11 completed passesAyunga: 7 completed passesKiltie: 9 completed passes122131831317616711CarsonFraserGogicDunneGallagherTanserBaccusO'HaraErhahonAyungaKiltieStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Guthrie: 3 passesSean Kelly and Guthrie: 3 passesBahamboula and Pittman: 3 passesOmeonga and Guthrie: 3 passesPittman and Guthrie: 3 passesDevlin and Omeonga: 4 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 4 passesHolt and Nouble: 4 passesGeorge and Obileye: 5 passesObileye and Devlin: 5 passesDevlin and Bahamboula: 5 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 5 passesOmeonga and Holt: 6 passesDevlin and Holt: 7 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 9 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 10 passesBahamboula and Omeonga: 10 passesGeorge and Devlin: 11 passesSean Kelly and Penrice: 19 passesGeorge: 18 completed passesObileye: 17 completed passesDevlin: 25 completed passesSean Kelly: 24 completed passesBahamboula: 11 completed passesPenrice: 14 completed passesOmeonga: 15 completed passesHolt: 19 completed passesPittman: 8 completed passesGuthrie: 6 completed passesNouble: 3 completed passes16224729331882819GeorgeObileyeDevlinSean KellyBahamboulaPenriceOmeongaHoltPittmanGuthrieNoubleStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GallagherCarson5
CarsonDunne4
FraserAyunga4
FraserGogic4
DunneKiltie4

Livingston

FromToPasses
Sean KellyPenrice11
PenriceSean Kelly8
HoltDevlin8
DevlinGeorge8
OmeongaBahamboula7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+2.015+8.325+12.711+2.94+0.14−5.315+7.73−1.94−2.68+2.13−3.17+3.11−2.63−1.33−1.92−1.41−2.01−1.60−2.63+0.91−1.93+1.00−1.31−0.31−1.91−1.00−0.70−1.10−0.91−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Livingston

1−4.73−4.47−0.72−3.46−2.66−0.33−2.64−2.49+0.94−3.010+4.45+2.740.06−2.15+1.32−1.11−0.96+2.63−2.01−1.60−0.90−1.03+1.91−0.92+0.90−0.30−0.40−0.40−0.16−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.010.010.020.010.020.020.010.010.030.020.020.040.10−0.02−0.01−0.02−0.010.010.20LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.020.010.010.020.050.020.020.040.040.060.100.020.040.03−0.010.040.08−0.010.02−0.020.160.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.93 → 0.94Livingston1.01 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.31 → 1.33Livingston1.24 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six37%47%+10
11th7%5%−2
Bottom3%2%−1
Livingston
Top six57%47%−10
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (1 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenLivingston
Expected goals1.171.02
Win39%31%
Expected Points1.471.23
Clean sheet36%31%

St. Mirren 39%Draw 30%Livingston 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%12%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawLivingston win
St. Mirren
Top six37%47%33%27%
11th7%5%8%8%
Bottom3%2%3%5%
Livingston
Top six57%47%58%70%
11th3%4%3%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W2–018 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.18
  2. L0–33 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.81–2.25
  3. W1–027 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.37–0.80
  4. W3–020 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.84–1.25
  5. W1–013 AugRoss County (H)xG 0.25–0.35
  6. L1–46 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.93–3.37

Livingston

  1. W1–017 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 0.83–0.11
  2. W1–03 SepHearts (H)xG 1.19–0.69
  3. L0–527 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.53–4.14
  4. L0–120 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.27–1.43
  5. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.45–1.86
  6. W1–07 AugDundee United (A)xG 0.90–0.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenLivingston
Position4th5th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠0–⁠34–⁠0–⁠3
Points12 (1.71 per game)12 (1.71 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.10
Goals8–⁠86–⁠9
xG per game1.20–⁠1.480.82–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 1.21–⁠0.872.25, 1.01–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.19–⁠2.291.00, 0.57–⁠2.03
ManagerStephen Robinson (0)David Martindale (68)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren0.93, 8thLivingston1.01, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.31, 9thLivingston1.24, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepSt. Mirren attack: 0.93Livingston attack: 1.011.010.93LivingstonSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepSt. Mirren defence: 1.31Livingston defence: 1.241.311.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+10%−34%−17%
Counter-attacks+207%−76%−100%−85%
Set pieces−15%−37%−10%+31%
Penalties+2%+207%−100%+207%
Headers+55%−5%−24%+61%
Left side−17%+9%−14%−16%
Centre+1%−11%−40%−17%
Right side−14%−6%−34%+9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−17%+9%Centre+1%−17%Right side−14%−16%Open play−18%−17%Counter-attacks+207%−85%Set pieces−15%+31%Headers+55%+61%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−14%−6%Centre−40%−11%Right side−34%+9%Open play−34%+10%Counter-attacks−100%−76%Set pieces−10%−37%Headers−24%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenLivingston

1.20xG0.82
1.48xG against1.41
36%Possession37%
10.4Shots8.7
13.1Shots against13.7
2.9Shots on target3.3
2.1Big chances1.7
257Passes273
60%Pass accuracy65%
6.3Corners2.7
40%Field tilt42%
30.4Final-third entries26.6
11.1Box entries8.7
18.4Passes per defensive action16.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.081.62
Ahead321.270.97
Behind251.261.93

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.111.23
Ahead400.760.93
Behind120.133.55

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.101–0
16–300.120.360–2
31–450.230.332–3
46–600.310.214–0
61–750.140.180–1
76–900.310.301–2

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.082–0
16–300.140.042–0
31–450.190.290–1
46–600.060.321–2
61–750.150.430–5
76–900.110.251–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 7Strain 7Fraser 5Gallagher 6Shaughne… 3ShaughnessyDunne 7Tait 5Tanser 2Baccus 7Erhahon 7O'Hara 5Kiltie 2Ayunga 7Main 6Greive 15-3-2 in every start

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMAMSTGeorge 7Devlin 7Fitzwater 5Obileye 7Sean Kelly 2Montano 6Cancar 1Omeonga 4Holt 7Bahamboula 1Sean Kelly 5Pittman 3Goncalves 1Shinnie 5Omeonga 3Pittman 4Nouble 1Penrice 1Nouble 6Guthrie 14-3-2-1 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-3-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 May 2022St. Mirren0–0LivingstonxG 0.64–0.85
19 February 2022Livingston1–1St. MirrenxG 1.29–0.13
20 November 2021St. Mirren1–1LivingstonxG 0.91–0.76
2 October 2021Livingston0–1St. MirrenxG 1.03–0.77
20 February 2021St. Mirren1–1LivingstonxG 0.71–0.29
21 November 2020Livingston0–1St. MirrenxG 0.46–0.39

7 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Livingston won 0, and 4 were drawn. Goals 6–3 and xG 0.66–0.75 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga7572220.450.06
Main6453200.220.09
Strain7565020.060.24
Baccus7600100.140.02

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nouble7607200.240.11
Holt7598020.030.12
Montano6535300.090.06
Obileye7630100.100.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.