Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 27 February 2021, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 0–0

St. Mirren McGrath 82' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenRoss County
Goals10
xG1.411.91
Non-penalty xG0.621.91
Expected Points0.961.75

St. Mirren 22%Draw 29%Ross County 49%

Most likely score 1–2, 17%. Final score 1–0, 4%.

Ross County goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%3%4%2%4%10%3%2%8%11%6%2%2%3%2%15%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTait on for Shaughnessy, 46'MacPherson on for Erhahon, Obika on for Erwin, and Quaner on for Connolly, 56'Flynn on for Durmus, 66'Shaw on for Gardyne, Donaldson on for Andreu, and Iacovitti on for Tremarco, 46'Tillson on for Spittal, 63'Paton on for Lakin, 67'McGrath 82' (pen)Ross County 1.91St. Mirren 1.4100.511.520153045607590HTTait on for Shaughnessy, 46'MacPherson on for Erhahon, Obika on for Erwin, and Quaner on for Connolly, 56'Flynn on for Durmus, 66'Shaw on for Gardyne, Donaldson on for Andreu, and Iacovitti on for Tremarco, 46'Tillson on for Spittal, 63'Paton on for Lakin, 67'McGrath 82' (pen)1.911.41St. MirrenRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenRoss County

1.41 +0.37xG1.91 +0.92
0.62Non-penalty xG1.91
1.44 +0.54xG on target1.28 +0.49
13 +1.3Shots11 +1.2
4 +0.6Shots on target4 +0.9
1 0.0Big chances2 +0.7
21 +4Touches in the opposition box17 +2
50% +3Possession50% +2
393 +36Passes385 +4
71% +4Pass accuracy66% −4
60% +16Field tilt40% −5
40 +7Final-third entries34 −2
10 +2.1Box entries7 −0.7
23.8 +10Passes per defensive action15.2 +1
4 −0.9Corners8 +3.8
5 −8Tackles14 0
13 +2Interceptions13 +2
29 +9Clearances29 +5
3 −0.1Saves3 −0.2
8 −4Fouls13 −1
3 +1.3Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Connolly 4', 0.10 xGMcCarthy 29', 0.09 xGConnolly 22', 0.08 xGErwin 36', 0.06 xGDurmus 37', 0.06 xGErwin 45+2', 0.04 xGMcGrath 23', 0.03 xGConnolly 30', 0.03 xGErwin 33', 0.03 xGFraser 35', 0.03 xGMcAllister 54', 0.03 xGMacPherson 90+3', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.28 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals27%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals29%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

White 53', 0.50 xGWhite 53', 0.48 xGTillson 90', 0.48 xGWatson 21', 0.11 xGAndreu 28', 0.07 xGIacovitti 75', 0.06 xGShaw 76', 0.06 xGKelly 53', 0.05 xGPaton 85', 0.05 xGShaw 61', 0.03 xGNaismith 69', 0.03 xG57%1.08 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.08 xG, 0 goals35%0.67 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.67 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenRoss County

0.51 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.67 8 shots, 0 goals
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.24 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
84 min (88%) · St. Mirren 1.38, Ross County 1.38 xG
St. Mirren ahead
11 min (12%) · St. Mirren 0.03, Ross County 0.53 xG

Line-ups

122542172511171023AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyConnollyDoyle-HayesErhahonDurmusMcGrathMcAllisterErwinYellow cardGoal46'56'56'66'56'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin123154320181972826LaidlawNaismithWatsonHjeldeTremarcoSpittalKellyLakinGardyneAndreuWhiteYellow card46'63'67'46'46'Ross County 4-4-1-1John Hughes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Tait for Shaughnessy
  • 56' MacPherson for Erhahon
  • 56' Quaner for Connolly
  • 56' Obika for Erwin
  • 66' Flynn for Durmus

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Iacovitti for Tremarco
  • 46' Donaldson for Andreu
  • 46' Shaw for Gardyne
  • 63' Tillson for Spittal
  • 67' Paton for Lakin

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Alnwick GK900.000.0000.0443
FraserCB900.030.0510.13125
McCarthyCB900.090.0100.05314
ShaughnessyCB460.000.0000.0223
ConnollyRWB560.210.1310.1011
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.0100.0446
ErhahonCM560.000.0530.0341
DurmusLWB660.060.0200.0422
McGrathAM9010.820.0900.0572
McAllisterAM900.030.4440.2842
ErwinST560.140.3210.0731
TaitDF440.000.0200.0761
MacPhersonMF340.030.0100.0213
QuanerFW340.000.0100.0220
ObikaFW340.000.0100.0003
FlynnMF240.000.0000.0002

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0561
NaismithRB900.030.3510.3495
WatsonCB900.110.000−0.0118
HjeldeCB900.000.0100.0458
Tremarco LB460.000.0200.0435
SpittalRM630.000.1720.0133
KellyCM900.050.0400.1094
LakinCM670.000.0100.0242
GardyneLM460.000.0210.0021
AndreuAM460.070.0000.1500
WhiteST900.970.0210.0116
IacovittiDF440.060.0200.0448
DonaldsonDF440.000.0110.0336
ShawFW440.090.2510.2451
TillsonMF270.480.020−0.0210
PatonMF230.050.0510.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Shaughnessy: 3 passesAlnwick and Erwin: 3 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 3 passesFraser and Erhahon: 3 passesConnolly and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesConnolly and Erhahon: 3 passesDurmus and Erwin: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erwin: 3 passesErhahon and McGrath: 3 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 4 passesShaughnessy and Erhahon: 4 passesConnolly and McGrath: 4 passesDurmus and Erhahon: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and McGrath: 4 passesMcAllister and Erwin: 4 passesConnolly and Erwin: 6 passesFraser and McAllister: 8 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 9 passesFraser and Erwin: 9 passesMcGrath and McAllister: 11 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 12 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 14 passesFraser and McGrath: 14 passesAlnwick: 7 completed passesShaughnessy: 16 completed passesMcCarthy: 22 completed passesFraser: 36 completed passesConnolly: 6 completed passesDurmus: 6 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 19 completed passesErhahon: 11 completed passesMcGrath: 20 completed passesMcAllister: 16 completed passesErwin: 11 completed passes145222111725171023AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserConnollyDurmusDoyle-HayesErhahonMcGrathMcAllisterErwinStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Kelly: 3 passesHjelde and Lakin: 3 passesHjelde and Gardyne: 3 passesSpittal and Andreu: 3 passesSpittal and White: 3 passesLakin and Andreu: 3 passesGardyne and Andreu: 3 passesAndreu and White: 3 passesLaidlaw and Naismith: 4 passesLaidlaw and Hjelde: 4 passesLaidlaw and White: 4 passesNaismith and Andreu: 4 passesHjelde and Kelly: 4 passesTremarco and Lakin: 4 passesTremarco and Andreu: 4 passesSpittal and Gardyne: 4 passesKelly and Gardyne: 4 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 5 passesNaismith and Watson: 5 passesLaidlaw and Tremarco: 6 passesNaismith and Kelly: 6 passesTremarco and Gardyne: 6 passesNaismith and Spittal: 7 passesLakin and Gardyne: 7 passesSpittal and Kelly: 8 passesKelly and Lakin: 8 passesLaidlaw: 18 completed passesNaismith: 14 completed passesHjelde: 9 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesTremarco: 15 completed passesSpittal: 13 completed passesKelly: 22 completed passesLakin: 14 completed passesGardyne: 13 completed passesAndreu: 9 completed passesWhite: 5 completed passes123415320181972826LaidlawNaismithHjeldeWatsonTremarcoSpittalKellyLakinGardyneAndreuWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Doyle-HayesFraser10
McCarthyFraser10
FraserMcGrath10
McAllisterMcGrath10
McGrathFraser9

Ross County

FromToPasses
KellySpittal8
NaismithSpittal8
WatsonNaismith7
LakinHjelde6
KellyHjelde6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+1.03−2.516+2.18+1.59+3.78+0.45−3.26−1.713+4.94−3.05−0.29+2.94−0.26+0.73−3.15+0.62−1.50−2.73−0.59+4.71−1.10−1.54+2.91−0.83+0.81−0.10−0.21+0.20−0.41+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Ross County

2−3.510+3.510−5.412+3.44−1.55−2.711+3.54−3.69−0.518+9.68+3.011+6.22−1.53−2.29+3.33−1.33−0.50−2.32−1.310+5.91−1.11−0.21−0.11−0.65+3.00−0.81+0.71+0.41+0.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.030.010.010.020.010.020.030.030.030.030.060.080.040.040.040.11−0.020.020.010.040.10−0.100.050.020.22LessMore

Ross County

0.040.040.010.010.030.040.020.010.010.040.070.05−0.01−0.010.010.16−0.05−0.020.030.03−0.020.150.020.35LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackSt. Mirren0.96 → 0.95Ross County0.93 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16 → 1.16Ross County1.56 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six62%81%+19
Ross County
Top six<1%–0
11th29%31%+2
Bottom26%34%+8
St. Johnstone
Top six29%16%−13
Hamilton Academical
11th29%32%+3
Bottom46%41%−5

From the forecast before the match (27 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenRoss County
Expected goals1.340.95
Win45%26%
Expected Points1.641.07
Clean sheet39%26%

St. Mirren 45%Draw 29%Ross County 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Ross County goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%5%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawRoss County win
St. Mirren
Top six62%81%55%38%
Ross County
Top six<1%––1%
11th29%31%30%23%
Bottom26%34%25%13%
St. Johnstone
Top six29%16%35%47%
Hamilton Academical
11th29%32%27%27%
Bottom46%41%48%53%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D0–024 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.30–1.39
  2. D1–120 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.71–0.29
  3. D1–117 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.74–1.52
  4. D0–013 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.66–0.51
  5. L0–410 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.57–2.57
  6. W2–06 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.56–0.49

Ross County

  1. W1–021 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.98–2.31
  2. L0–26 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.74–1.65
  3. W2–13 FebHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.44–0.49
  4. L1–227 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.56
  5. L0–523 JanRangers (A)xG 0.50–2.67
  6. W4–116 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.95–2.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenRoss County
Position6th10th
Played3029
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠9–⁠127–⁠5–⁠17
Points36 (1.20 per game)26 (0.90 per game)
Expected Points per game1.220.85
Goals28–⁠3422–⁠53
xG per game1.04–⁠1.230.99–⁠1.81
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.06–⁠1.170.87, 0.99–⁠2.00
Away: points, xG per game1.43, 1.01–⁠1.290.93, 1.00–⁠1.61
ManagerJim Goodwin (30)John Hughes (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackSt. Mirren0.96, 9thRoss County0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16, 7thRoss County1.56, 11th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 0.96Ross County attack: 0.930.960.93Ross CountySt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.16Ross County defence: 1.561.561.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%+6%−19%+43%
Counter-attacks−19%−61%+43%−28%
Set pieces−2%−7%−22%+30%
Penalties−23%−23%−60%+98%
Headers−26%+5%+12%+17%
Left side−6%+1%−17%+20%
Centre−18%−13%−12%+59%
Right side−26%+20%−24%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−6%+14%Centre−18%+59%Right side−26%+20%Open play−23%+43%Counter-attacks−19%−28%Set pieces−2%+30%Headers−26%+17%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−17%+20%Centre−12%−13%Right side−24%+1%Open play−19%+6%Counter-attacks+43%−61%Set pieces−22%−7%Headers+12%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenRoss County

1.04xG0.99
1.23xG against1.81
47%Possession48%
11.7Shots9.8
12.5Shots against14.3
3.4Shots on target3.1
1.0Big chances1.3
17.5Touches in the opposition box15.0
357Passes381
66%Pass accuracy70%
4.9Corners4.2
43%Field tilt46%
33.3Final-third entries35.9
7.9Box entries7.7
14.0Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.971.13
Ahead181.381.22
Behind280.931.38

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.031.78
Ahead150.531.89
Behind351.151.81

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.153–3
16–300.140.214–9
31–450.240.177–6
46–600.090.233–5
61–750.120.243–7
76–900.280.238–4

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.343–6
16–300.150.277–9
31–450.150.222–5
46–600.160.320–9
61–750.170.382–13
76–900.210.288–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 26Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 22Tait 5Connolly 2McCarthy 29Shaughnessy 27Foley 3Tait 1Tait 19Durmus 6Obika 2McAllister 8Connolly 7Fraser 4McGrath 19MacPhers… 9MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 14Doyle-HayesFraser 2Obika 1Erhahon 22Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 9Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 24Doohan 5Randall 10Naismith 7Watson 4Donaldson 19Morris 9Watson 4Iacovitti 22Hjelde 3Grivosti 1Reid 17Tremarco 3Iacovitti 2Vigurs 11Draper 4Iacovitti 3Paton 5Charles-Cook 5Gardyne 4Kelly 10Tillson 8Draper 6Paton 13Vigurs 10Lakin 5Gardyne 7Hylton 6Stewart 6Shaw 11Stewart 9McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-5-1 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 December 2020Ross County0–2St. MirrenxG 0.54–1.79
22 August 2020St. Mirren1–1Ross CountyxG 1.31–2.21

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Ross County won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–1 and xG 1.55–1.38 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath272,200510.220.15
Obika191,804510.300.05
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin111,099200.220.06

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McKay9906200.290.14
Stewart191,650210.370.06
Shaw121,189610.290.05
Gardyne151,319000.060.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.