Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–2 Hibernian

Tuesday 2 February 2021, 18:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 27 · Half-time 0–0

St. Mirren Obika 74' · Alnwick sent off 36'

Hibernian Porteous 55', Boyle 71' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals12
xG0.651.60
Non-penalty xG0.650.81
Expected Points0.512.20

St. Mirren 7%Draw 29%Hibernian 63%

Most likely score 1–1, 24%. Final score 1–2, 18%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+4%16%14%5%1%5%7%1%2%2%24%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAlnwick (St. Mirren), red card 36'Lyness on for Dennis, 38'Obika on for Durmus, 46'Connolly on for Brophy, 54'McAllister on for Tait, 83'Porteous on for McGregor, 46'Nisbet on for Cadden, 54'Magennis on for Murphy, 90+3'Obika 74'Porteous 55'Boyle 71' (pen)Hibernian 1.60St. Mirren 0.6500.511.520153045607590HTAlnwick (St. Mirren), red card 36'Lyness on for Dennis, 38'Obika on for Durmus, 46'Connolly on for Brophy, 54'McAllister on for Tait, 83'Porteous on for McGregor, 46'Nisbet on for Cadden, 54'Magennis on for Murphy, 90+3'Obika 74'Porteous 55'Boyle 71' (pen)1.600.65St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

0.65 −0.48xG1.60 +0.17
0.65Non-penalty xG0.81
0.91 −0.02xG on target1.84 +0.36
4 −8Shots11 −1
1 −2.5Shots on target4 −0.1
1 −0.1Big chances2 +0.2
8 −11Touches in the opposition box21 +1
46% 0Possession54% +5
374 +20Passes411 +22
66% 0Pass accuracy74% +3
36% −7Field tilt64% +18
26 −8Final-third entries38 −1
3 −5.2Box entries10 −0.5
18.4 +4Passes per defensive action20.0 +6
2 −3.1Corners3 −2.5
13 0Tackles4 −11
8 −4Interceptions12 +2
28 +8Clearances30 +10
2 −1.5Saves0 −2.7
11 −1Fouls12 −1
2 +0.3Offsides2 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Dennis 10', 0.03 xGDennis 16', 0.03 xGDoyle-Hayes 81', 0.03 xGObika 74', 0.55 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals85%0.55 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.55 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals15%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Doidge 66', 0.31 xGBoyle 47', 0.08 xGIrvine 49', 0.07 xGDoig 80', 0.07 xGMurphy 75', 0.06 xGMurphy 85', 0.06 xGMcGinn 39', 0.03 xGMurphy 66', 0.03 xGDoidge 22', 0.02 xGPorteous 55', 0.10 xG, goal12%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 1 goal70%0.57 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals14%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.07 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.64 6 shots, 0 goals
0.55 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (59%) · St. Mirren 0.07, Hibernian 0.29 xG
Hibernian ahead
38 min (41%) · St. Mirren 0.58, Hibernian 1.31 xG

Line-ups

1225421787112920AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMcGrathFlynnDoyle-HayesDurmusBrophyDennisSent offYellow card83'46'54'38'St. Mirren 4-4-2Jim Goodwin162442527133610918MarcianoMcGinnMcGregorHanlonDoigCaddenGogicIrvineBoyleDoidgeMurphyYellow cardGoal46'54'90+3'Hibernian 4-3-3Jack Ross

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 38' Lyness for Dennis
  • 46' Obika for Durmus · goal 74'
  • 54' Connolly for Brophy · yellow card 56', 1 assist
  • 83' McAllister for Tait

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Porteous for McGregor · goal 55'
  • 54' Nisbet for Cadden
  • 90+3' Magennis for Murphy

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Alnwick GK360.000.0000.0330
Fraser RB900.000.0210.0886
McCarthyCB900.000.0100.03311
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.0117
TaitLB830.000.0100.0572
McGrathRM900.000.1300.0137
FlynnCM900.000.0100.0014
Doyle-HayesCM900.030.0200.0658
DurmusLM460.000.0100.0224
BrophyST540.000.0110.0021
DennisST380.060.0000.0000
LynessGK520.000.0000.0220
ObikaFW4410.550.0000.0001
Connolly MF3610.000.2210.0610
McAllisterFW70.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0331
McGinnRB900.030.2920.3381
McGregorCB460.000.0000.0106
HanlonCB900.000.0200.1189
DoigLB900.070.0300.0564
CaddenCM540.000.0100.0041
Gogic CM900.000.020−0.0137
IrvineCM900.070.0500.1143
BoyleRW90110.870.3230.2162
DoidgeST900.330.0100.0023
MurphyLW900.150.1720.27100
PorteousDF4410.100.0100.0777
NisbetFW360.000.010−0.0620
MagennisMF00.000.0000.0112

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Shaughnessy: 3 passesFraser and Dennis: 3 passesFraser and Brophy: 3 passesDurmus and Brophy: 3 passesAlnwick and Tait: 4 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 4 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Flynn: 4 passesFraser and McCarthy: 5 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 5 passesTait and Dennis: 5 passesDurmus and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesMcCarthy and Flynn: 6 passesFraser and Flynn: 7 passesDurmus and Flynn: 7 passesDoyle-Hayes and McGrath: 7 passesFraser and Durmus: 12 passesTait and Doyle-Hayes: 12 passesTait and McGrath: 20 passesAlnwick: 6 completed passesFraser: 22 completed passesShaughnessy: 12 completed passesMcCarthy: 14 completed passesTait: 23 completed passesDurmus: 15 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 22 completed passesFlynn: 17 completed passesMcGrath: 24 completed passesDennis: 5 completed passesBrophy: 5 completed passes1224521178172029AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitDurmusDoyle-HayesFlynnMcGrathDennisBrophyStarters until 36' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Cadden and Doidge: 3 passesIrvine and Gogic: 3 passesDoig and Boyle: 3 passesDoig and Doidge: 3 passesHanlon and McGinn: 4 passesMcGregor and McGinn: 4 passesMcGinn and Doidge: 4 passesCadden and Gogic: 4 passesIrvine and Murphy: 4 passesMurphy and Boyle: 4 passesMarciano and McGinn: 5 passesMarciano and Doidge: 5 passesMcGregor and Irvine: 5 passesMcGinn and Irvine: 5 passesMcGinn and Gogic: 5 passesCadden and Murphy: 5 passesIrvine and Doidge: 5 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 6 passesHanlon and Irvine: 6 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 6 passesMcGinn and Murphy: 6 passesDoig and Murphy: 6 passesIrvine and Doig: 7 passesIrvine and Boyle: 7 passesHanlon and Doig: 10 passesHanlon and McGregor: 15 passesMarciano: 15 completed passesHanlon: 26 completed passesMcGregor: 17 completed passesMcGinn: 22 completed passesCadden: 11 completed passesIrvine: 21 completed passesGogic: 10 completed passesDoig: 16 completed passesMurphy: 16 completed passesBoyle: 7 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passes142462736132518109MarcianoHanlonMcGregorMcGinnCaddenIrvineGogicDoigMurphyBoyleDoidgeStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McGrathTait16
TaitMcGrath12
Doyle-HayesTait10
FraserFlynn7
FraserDurmus7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MurphyDoig11
HanlonDoig10
DoigHanlon10
MarcianoDoidge8
HanlonMcGregor8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

7+2.111+5.420+6.74−2.72−3.416+8.98−0.78+0.79+0.73−4.69+4.32−4.71−3.74−1.27+1.23−1.32−1.32−0.92−1.44−0.10−2.30−1.71−0.11−1.11−1.40−1.00−0.22+1.21+0.60−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Hibernian

2−2.93−2.416+2.74−2.810+3.44−3.55−3.512+4.811+3.55−1.160.05+0.49+3.72−1.72−1.61−1.030.06+1.40−2.01−0.21+0.14+2.83+1.11+0.30−0.51−0.20−0.40−0.72−4.52−4.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.030.020.010.010.030.010.020.010.010.010.030.030.01−0.010.010.03−0.020.050.07LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.020.020.030.010.030.020.020.030.010.060.050.040.040.020.020.010.210.030.050.070.05−0.05−0.060.050.35LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren1.04 → 1.04Hibernian1.25 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.18 → 1.19Hibernian1.06 → 1.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six81%75%−6
St. Johnstone
Top six9%12%+3
11th2%2%0
Kilmarnock
Top six4%6%+2
11th11%10%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals0.981.28
Win28%43%
Expected Points1.131.58
Clean sheet28%38%

St. Mirren 28%Draw 30%Hibernian 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%10%8%4%1%5%6%4%2%2%2%1%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six81%92%81%75%
St. Johnstone
Top six9%5%9%12%
11th2%2%2%2%
Kilmarnock
Top six4%2%4%6%
11th11%11%11%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W2–130 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.03–1.61
  2. W5–127 JanDundee United (A)xG 3.25–1.23
  3. L0–116 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.30–1.06
  4. D1–19 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.85
  5. D1–12 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.52–0.97
  6. L0–230 DecRangers (H)xG 0.71–0.71

Hibernian

  1. W2–030 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.34–0.51
  2. L0–127 JanRangers (H)xG 0.80–1.72
  3. W2–016 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 0.68–0.64
  4. D1–111 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.83–0.97
  5. L0–32 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.49–1.18
  6. L0–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.69

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position6th4th
Played2326
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠5–⁠1012–⁠7–⁠7
Points29 (1.26 per game)43 (1.65 per game)
Expected Points per game1.281.51
Goals23–⁠2635–⁠25
xG per game1.13–⁠1.241.43–⁠1.19
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.25–⁠1.091.31, 1.24–⁠1.35
Away: points, xG per game1.46, 1.04–⁠1.352.00, 1.63–⁠1.03
ManagerJim Goodwin (23)Jack Ross (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren1.04, 8thHibernian1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.18, 7thHibernian1.06, 4th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren attack: 1.04Hibernian attack: 1.251.251.04HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren defence: 1.18Hibernian defence: 1.061.181.06

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+12%+14%−13%
Counter-attacks−50%−100%−15%+3%
Set pieces+8%−8%+9%−4%
Penaltiesaverage−50%+11%+11%
Headers−15%+16%+39%−22%
Left side−3%+6%+1%−8%
Centre−9%−19%+12%−28%
Right side−32%+35%+22%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−3%+22%Centre−9%−28%Right side−32%−8%Open play−20%−13%Counter-attacks−50%+3%Set pieces+8%−4%Headers−15%−22%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+1%+35%Centre+12%−19%Right side+22%+6%Open play+14%+12%Counter-attacks−15%−100%Set pieces+9%−8%Headers+39%+16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.13xG1.43
1.24xG against1.19
46%Possession49%
11.9Shots11.7
12.6Shots against11.9
3.5Shots on target4.1
1.1Big chances1.8
18.7Touches in the opposition box20.2
354Passes389
67%Pass accuracy71%
5.1Corners5.5
43%Field tilt46%
33.6Final-third entries39.0
8.2Box entries10.5
13.9Passes per defensive action13.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.181.29
Ahead211.311.29
Behind310.941.13

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.611.06
Ahead311.541.30
Behind190.891.30

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.183–2
16–300.170.264–8
31–450.250.195–6
46–600.100.222–4
61–750.110.201–5
76–900.330.198–1

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.144–4
16–300.170.167–2
31–450.200.256–6
46–600.170.235–4
61–750.320.166–1
76–900.300.257–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 20Zlamal 3Fraser 20MacPherson 1Connolly 1McCarthy 22Shaughnessy 20Foley 3Tait 1Tait 17Fraser 2Obika 2McAllister 7Connolly 7McGrath 2McGrath 19MacPhers… 7MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 9Doyle-HayesObika 1Brophy 1Erhahon 16Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 7Mason 5Obika 3Obika 8Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 22Macey 2Barnes 2McGinn 23Boyle 1Cadden 1Porteous 25McGregor 2McGinn 1Hanlon 24Doig 12Stevenson 8Gogic 3Boyle 18McGinn 2Wright 2Gogic 13Hallberg 9Mallan 3Newell 20Irvine 2Nisbet 1Murphy 8Doig 4Horgan 4Nisbet 22Boyle 4Wright 1Doidge 19Gogic 3Murphy 14-4-2 in 13 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-5-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2020Hibernian1–0St. MirrenxG 0.86–0.85
12 September 2020St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 1.24–1.09

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Hibernian won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–4 and xG 1.04–0.98 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika141,287300.320.06
McGrath231,915510.220.16
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin9916200.260.06

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet231,9951120.480.09
Mallan4507100.230.33
Doidge191,808520.400.08
Boyle242,162640.270.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.