Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hibernian 3–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 17 September 2022, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 17,292

Hibernian Boyle 45+1' (pen), Campbell 62', 73'

Aberdeen Duk 4' · Scales sent off 44'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianAberdeen
Goals31
xG2.800.66
Non-penalty xG2.010.66
Expected Points2.720.17

Hibernian 87%Draw 11%Aberdeen 2%

Most likely score 3–1, 16%. Final score 3–1, 16%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%5%9%10%1%10%1%7%10%3%4%1%2%16%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTScales (Aberdeen), second yellow card 44'Doyle-Hayes on for Kenneh, 60'Tavares on for Youan, 72'Henderson on for Campbell, 85'Bojang on for Kukharevych, 86'Polvara on for Duk, 45+2'MacKenzie on for Coulson, 55'Watkins on for Richardson and Morris on for Besuijen, 78'Boyle 45+1' (pen)Campbell 62'Campbell 73'Duk 4'Hibernian 2.80Aberdeen 0.6601230153045607590HTScales (Aberdeen), second yellow card 44'Doyle-Hayes on for Kenneh, 60'Tavares on for Youan, 72'Henderson on for Campbell, 85'Bojang on for Kukharevych, 86'Polvara on for Duk, 45+2'MacKenzie on for Coulson, 55'Watkins on for Richardson and Morris on for Besuijen, 78'Boyle 45+1' (pen)Campbell 62'Campbell 73'Duk 4'2.800.66HibernianAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianAberdeen

2.80 +1.61xG0.66 −1.15
2.01Non-penalty xG0.66
2.39 +1.68xG on target0.65 −1.43
25 +8Shots5 −10
8 +4.2Shots on target1 −4.2
2 +0.7Big chances1 −1.8
64% +4Possession36% −20
465 +55Passes261 −165
83% +4Pass accuracy69% −10
88% +22Field tilt12% −38
64 +12Final-third entries16 −32
23 +7Box entries5 −7
6.5 −3.2Passes per defensive action19.6 +5.2
10 +1.3Corners2 −4.3
16 +2Tackles16 +3
5 −1.7Interceptions6 −4.3
12 −6Clearances30 +10
0 −2.0Saves5 +2.5
19 +4.7Fouls14 +5.3
2 +0.2Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Porteous 13', 0.22 xGBoyle 64', 0.13 xGPorteous 19', 0.11 xGKukharevych 60', 0.11 xGNewell 29', 0.07 xGKukharevych 71', 0.07 xGHenderson 86', 0.07 xGKukharevych 39', 0.06 xGYouan 39', 0.06 xGNewell 58', 0.06 xGCampbell 22', 0.05 xGYouan 22', 0.05 xGKukharevych 41', 0.05 xGKenneh 56', 0.05 xGNewell 66', 0.05 xGCadden 54', 0.04 xGNewell 34', 0.03 xGYouan 39', 0.03 xGCampbell 56', 0.03 xGPorteous 65', 0.03 xGYouan 67', 0.03 xGPorteous 81', 0.01 xGCampbell 73', 0.36 xG, goalCampbell 62', 0.26 xG, goal18%0.36 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.36 xG, 1 goal59%1.19 xGCentral box: 13 shots, 1.19 xG, 1 goal12%0.25 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals9%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Miovski 75', 0.59 xGWatkins 85', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 34', 0.01 xGRamadani 70', 0.00 xGDuk 4', 0.03 xG, goal91%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.59 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 1 goal5%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianAberdeen

1.22 15 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.03 2 shots, 1 goal
0.13 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.59 1 shot, 0 goals
0.66 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Hibernian 0.55, Aberdeen 0.03 xG
Hibernian ahead
29 min (31%) · Hibernian 0.75, Aberdeen 0.63 xG
Aberdeen ahead
42 min (45%) · Hibernian 1.51, Aberdeen 0.01 xG

Line-ups

11254311677322399MarshallCaddenPorteousHanlonCabrajaNewellKennehBoyleCampbellYouanKukharevychYellow cardGoalGoalGoal60'85'72'86'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson242554221016217911RoosRichardsonStewartScalesCoulsonBesuijenRamadaniMcCrorieHayesMiovskiDukYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal78'55'78'45+2'Aberdeen 4-4-2Jim Goodwin

Hibernian substitutes

  • 60' Doyle-Hayes for Kenneh · yellow card 79'
  • 72' Tavares for Youan
  • 85' Henderson for Campbell
  • 86' Bojang for Kukharevych

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 45+2' Polvara for Duk
  • 55' MacKenzie for Coulson
  • 78' Watkins for Richardson
  • 78' Morris for Besuijen

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0221
CaddenRB9010.040.2440.43172
PorteousCB900.370.0300.1688
HanlonCB900.000.0100.09101
CabrajaLB900.000.1130.27145
NewellDM900.210.3640.3865
Kenneh DM600.050.0000.0115
BoyleRW9010.920.1720.17100
CampbellAM8520.690.0510.1322
YouanLW720.170.0920.0632
KukharevychST8610.300.6110.1423
Doyle-Hayes MF300.000.0300.0411
TavaresMF180.000.000−0.0110
HendersonFW50.070.000−0.0100
BojangFW40.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0222
RichardsonRB780.000.5810.2167
Stewart CB900.000.0400.10112
Scales CB440.000.0000.0123
CoulsonLB5510.000.0410.0834
BesuijenRM780.000.0400.0322
RamadaniCM900.000.0100.0423
McCrorie CM900.010.0100.01311
Hayes LM900.000.011−0.0425
Miovski ST900.590.000−0.0102
DukST4510.030.000−0.0101
PolvaraMF450.000.000−0.0113
MacKenzieDF350.000.0000.0103
WatkinsFW120.030.0000.0000
MorrisMF120.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Cabraja: 4 passesCadden and Kenneh: 4 passesCadden and Kukharevych: 4 passesNewell and Boyle: 4 passesNewell and Youan: 4 passesYouan and Kukharevych: 4 passesMarshall and Porteous: 5 passesHanlon and Kenneh: 5 passesCabraja and Boyle: 5 passesNewell and Campbell: 5 passesKenneh and Campbell: 5 passesCampbell and Youan: 6 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 7 passesCadden and Newell: 7 passesCadden and Campbell: 7 passesBoyle and Campbell: 7 passesPorteous and Newell: 8 passesHanlon and Newell: 8 passesCabraja and Newell: 10 passesPorteous and Boyle: 13 passesCadden and Boyle: 16 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 16 passesCabraja and Youan: 17 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 20 passesCadden and Porteous: 23 passesMarshall: 12 completed passesCadden: 38 completed passesPorteous: 41 completed passesHanlon: 34 completed passesCabraja: 35 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesKenneh: 12 completed passesBoyle: 20 completed passesCampbell: 13 completed passesYouan: 19 completed passesKukharevych: 5 completed passes11254311677322399MarshallCaddenPorteousHanlonCabrajaNewellKennehBoyleCampbellYouanKukharevychStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Coulson and Hayes: 3 passesCoulson and Duk: 3 passesRichardson and Stewart: 4 passesRichardson and Besuijen: 4 passesScales and McCrorie: 4 passesBesuijen and Ramadani: 4 passesScales and Stewart: 6 passesScales and Ramadani: 6 passesStewart and Ramadani: 6 passesCoulson and McCrorie: 6 passesScales and Coulson: 7 passesRoos and Stewart: 10 passesRoos and Scales: 12 passesRoos: 17 completed passesRichardson: 8 completed passesScales: 17 completed passesStewart: 18 completed passesCoulson: 11 completed passesBesuijen: 4 completed passesMcCrorie: 9 completed passesRamadani: 11 completed passesHayes: 6 completed passesMiovski: 0 completed passesDuk: 3 completed passes242545221021617911RoosRichardsonScalesStewartCoulsonBesuijenMcCrorieRamadaniHayesMiovskiDukStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousCadden23
HanlonPorteous19
CabrajaHanlon18
PorteousHanlon17
HanlonCabraja14

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
RoosStewart7
StewartRoos7
StewartRamadani7
CoulsonMcCrorie6
RoosScales6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

6+3.32−2.76−2.35−2.54−3.22−1.84−1.53−1.33−2.26+1.77+3.54+2.59+4.310+1.50−2.73−2.22−1.52−2.012+7.22−0.520.02+1.07+4.85+2.21+0.51+0.50−1.22+1.010.04−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Aberdeen

8+4.36−0.228+12.015+9.73−2.85−2.011+5.74−2.34−1.34−2.09+5.850.04+0.21−4.33−3.03−0.82−1.51−1.83−0.23−1.20−1.30−1.21+0.21−0.23+1.70−1.20−0.50−0.30−0.20−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.010.030.030.060.020.020.010.060.140.060.020.060.060.070.070.030.150.090.070.270.210.24LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.01−0.010.030.01−0.020.040.020.02−0.010.070.100.13LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.19AttackHibernian1.12 → 1.17Aberdeen1.14 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.08 → 1.05Aberdeen1.12 → 1.17

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six73%81%+8
11th1%1%0
Aberdeen
Top six81%75%−6

From the forecast before the match (17 September 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianAberdeen
Expected goals1.270.94
Win43%27%
Expected Points1.601.10
Clean sheet39%28%

Hibernian 43%Draw 30%Aberdeen 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+10%5%2%6%2%9%8%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%12%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 September 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawAberdeen win
Hibernian
Top six73%81%71%63%
11th1%1%1%2%
Aberdeen
Top six81%75%81%89%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W1–03 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.44–0.39
  2. L0–127 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.80–1.37
  3. D2–220 AugRangers (H)xG 0.77–1.57
  4. L1–213 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.86–1.45
  5. D1–17 AugHearts (H)xG 1.50–0.96
  6. W1–030 JulSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.78–0.15

Aberdeen

  1. D1–13 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.83–1.36
  2. W5–027 AugLivingston (H)xG 4.14–0.53
  3. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.05–0.34
  4. L2–313 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.27–2.72
  5. W4–16 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.37–0.93
  6. L0–231 JulCeltic (A)xG 0.23–1.90

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianAberdeen
Position8th3rd
Played66
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠23–⁠1–⁠2
Points8 (1.33 per game)10 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.511.57
Goals6–⁠613–⁠7
xG per game1.19–⁠0.981.81–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game1.67, 1.24–⁠0.972.00, 2.93–⁠1.39
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.15–⁠0.991.33, 0.70–⁠1.20
ManagerLee Johnson (6)Jim Goodwin (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.19AttackHibernian1.12, 5thAberdeen1.14, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.08, 3rdAberdeen1.12, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepHibernian attack: 1.12Aberdeen attack: 1.141.141.12AberdeenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepHibernian defence: 1.08Aberdeen defence: 1.121.121.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−31%+22%−15%
Counter-attacks+7%−58%+41%−39%
Set pieces+33%−17%+4%+45%
Penalties−100%+9%+227%+9%
Headers+55%−7%+75%+24%
Left side+40%−19%−19%−41%
Centre−35%−49%+14%+1%
Right side+13%−9%+63%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+40%+31%Centre−35%+1%Right side+13%−41%Open play−11%−15%Counter-attacks+7%−39%Set pieces+33%+45%Headers+55%+24%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−19%−9%Centre+14%−49%Right side+63%−19%Open play+22%−31%Counter-attacks+41%−58%Set pieces+4%−17%Headers+75%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianAberdeen

1.19xG1.81
0.98xG against1.30
60%Possession56%
17.0Shots14.7
9.7Shots against11.8
3.8Shots on target5.2
1.3Big chances2.8
410Passes426
79%Pass accuracy78%
8.7Corners6.3
66%Field tilt50%
51.7Final-third entries47.7
15.7Box entries11.7
9.7Passes per defensive action14.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level370.801.15
Ahead131.330.43
Behind401.511.00

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.580.99
Ahead263.411.13
Behind240.491.99

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.111–2
16–300.060.100–1
31–450.190.220–1
46–600.320.272–1
61–750.100.070–0
76–900.410.203–1

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.140–1
16–300.230.181–1
31–450.410.084–0
46–600.390.343–3
61–750.270.102–1
76–900.390.463–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 6Cadden 6Hanlon 4Bushiri 3Porteous 5Cabraja 5Campbell 1Kenneh 4Doyle-Hayes 2Campbell 1Newell 4Henderson 1Melkersen 3Porteous 1Boyle 1Henderson 2Campbell 2Newell 1Henderson 2Youan 2Boyle 1Youan 4Boyle 1Doidge 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 5-3-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 6Richardson 6Stewart 6Scales 4McCrorie 2Coulson 5Scales 1Ramadani 6McCrorie 4Clarkson 1Polvara 1Besuijen 3Kennedy 3Besuijen 3Clarkson 3Hayes 6Miovski 64-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 May 2022Hibernian1–1AberdeenxG 2.02–0.63
19 March 2022Aberdeen3–1HibernianxG 2.19–0.55
22 December 2021Hibernian1–0AberdeenxG 0.41–0.70
23 October 2021Aberdeen1–0HibernianxG 0.24–0.22
12 May 2021Aberdeen0–1HibernianxG 1.28–0.44
6 February 2021Hibernian2–0AberdeenxG 2.26–0.54

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Aberdeen won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 6–8 and xG 0.88–1.02 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6507030.220.20
Newell6540100.060.18
Porteous6540000.080.08
Cabraja5468000.040.09

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski6480500.840.02
Besuijen6485100.240.29
Hayes6489120.150.18
Scales5450010.120.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.