Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 0–4 Celtic

Wednesday 10 February 2021, 20:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 25 · Half-time 0–1

Celtic Rogic 16', Edouard 79' (pen), Christie 82', Turnbull 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals04
xG0.572.57
Non-penalty xG0.571.78
Expected Points0.202.70

St. Mirren 3%Draw 10%Celtic 86%

Most likely score 0–2, 18%. Final score 0–4, 8%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%8%8%2%5%11%10%5%1%1%3%3%1%18%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcAllister on for McGrath, 15'MacPherson on for Connolly, 72'Erwin on for Flynn, 81'Duffy on for Welsh and Christie on for Ajeti, 68'Klimala on for Edouard, 80'Elyounoussi on for Turnbull and Griffiths on for Rogic, 85'Rogic 16'Edouard 79' (pen)Christie 82'Turnbull 83'Celtic 2.57St. Mirren 0.5701230153045607590HTMcAllister on for McGrath, 15'MacPherson on for Connolly, 72'Erwin on for Flynn, 81'Duffy on for Welsh and Christie on for Ajeti, 68'Klimala on for Edouard, 80'Elyounoussi on for Turnbull and Griffiths on for Rogic, 85'Rogic 16'Edouard 79' (pen)Christie 82'Turnbull 83'2.570.57St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

0.57 −0.56xG2.57 +0.60
0.57Non-penalty xG1.78
0.12 −0.83xG on target3.64 +1.51
14 +2Shots19 +1
2 −1.5Shots on target6 −0.7
0 −1.2Big chances3 +0.4
14 −5Touches in the opposition box27 −3
39% −7Possession61% −6
357 +1Passes573 −12
70% +4Pass accuracy82% −2
28% −15Field tilt72% −1
34 +1Final-third entries51 −16
6 −2.3Box entries14 −3.3
13.7 −0.2Passes per defensive action10.7 +1.0
3 −1.9Corners3 −3.0
18 +4Tackles13 0
10 −1.9Interceptions16 +6.2
16 −4Clearances22 +7
2 −1.3Saves2 +0.5
15 +3Fouls13 +1
1 −0.7Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Connolly 43', 0.07 xGObika 88', 0.07 xGDurmus 50', 0.06 xGObika 46', 0.04 xGDurmus 50', 0.04 xGObika 90+3', 0.04 xGMcGrath 4', 0.03 xGShaughnessy 18', 0.03 xGMcAllister 45+3', 0.03 xGShaughnessy 50', 0.03 xGMcAllister 72', 0.03 xGShaughnessy 74', 0.03 xGErwin 90+2', 0.03 xGDurmus 90+2', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals30%0.17 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals20%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals46%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Edouard 56', 0.66 xGEdouard 57', 0.07 xGTurnbull 42', 0.06 xGEdouard 48', 0.06 xGEdouard 59', 0.06 xGRogic 56', 0.05 xGRogic 60', 0.05 xGChristie 77', 0.05 xGKenny 23', 0.04 xGRogic 41', 0.04 xGMcGregor 53', 0.04 xGTurnbull 56', 0.04 xGTurnbull 58', 0.04 xGTurnbull 58', 0.03 xGChristie 77', 0.03 xGTurnbull 83', 0.35 xG, goalChristie 82', 0.08 xG, goalRogic 16', 0.05 xG, goal37%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.66 xG, 0 goals33%0.59 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.59 xG, 1 goal12%0.22 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 2 goals13%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

0.34 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.62 15 shots, 3 goals
0.23 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · St. Mirren 0.03, Celtic 0.04 xG
Celtic ahead
80 min (83%) · St. Mirren 0.54, Celtic 2.52 xG

Line-ups

1225421872511179AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyConnollyFlynnDoyle-HayesErhahonDurmusMcGrathObikaYellow cardYellow card72'81'15'St. Mirren 3-5-1-1Jim Goodwin29165735318842141022BainKennyWelshAjerTaylorRogicBrownMcGregorTurnbullAjetiEdouardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal68'85'85'68'80'Celtic 4-1-2-1-2Neil Lennon

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 15' McAllister for McGrath
  • 72' MacPherson for Connolly
  • 81' Erwin for Flynn

Celtic substitutes

  • 68' Duffy for Welsh
  • 68' Christie for Ajeti · goal 82'
  • 80' Klimala for Edouard
  • 85' Griffiths for Rogic
  • 85' Elyounoussi for Turnbull

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0451
FraserCB900.000.0610.17136
McCarthyCB900.000.0000.0229
ShaughnessyCB900.100.0100.0339
ConnollyRWB720.070.0110.0100
Flynn CM810.000.0000.0001
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.0420.02310
ErhahonCM900.000.0110.0127
DurmusLWB900.130.0110.0145
McGrathAM150.030.000−0.0100
Obika ST900.150.0200.0011
McAllisterFW750.060.0730.1131
MacPhersonMF180.000.0910.1030
ErwinFW90.030.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0120
KennyRB9010.040.0420.0677
WelshCB680.000.0100.0857
AjerCB900.000.0100.121510
TaylorLB900.000.0700.0768
Rogic DM85110.180.5930.2963
BrownCM900.000.0210.0747
McGregorCM900.040.1420.14113
TurnbullAM8510.510.2420.2482
AjetiST680.000.032−0.0211
EdouardST8011.640.080−0.0230
DuffyDF220.000.0000.0116
ChristieMF2210.160.0100.0113
KlimalaFW100.000.010−0.0200
GriffithsFW50.000.000−0.0100
ElyounoussiFW50.000.0100.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Taylor and Turnbull: 8 passesBrown and Rogic: 8 passesKenny and Turnbull: 9 passesWelsh and McGregor: 9 passesKenny and Brown: 10 passesKenny and McGregor: 10 passesRogic and McGregor: 10 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 10 passesAjer and Turnbull: 11 passesAjer and McGregor: 12 passesWelsh and Turnbull: 12 passesBain and Welsh: 13 passesTaylor and Ajeti: 13 passesBrown and Turnbull: 13 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 13 passesBain and Ajer: 15 passesKenny and Welsh: 16 passesBrown and McGregor: 16 passesTaylor and McGregor: 18 passesWelsh and Brown: 19 passesKenny and Rogic: 21 passesAjer and Welsh: 22 passesBain: 21 completed passesKenny: 39 completed passesAjer: 46 completed passesWelsh: 54 completed passesTaylor: 31 completed passesBrown: 50 completed passesRogic: 25 completed passesMcGregor: 46 completed passesTurnbull: 40 completed passesEdouard: 18 completed passesAjeti: 16 completed passes29163557381842142210BainKennyAjerWelshTaylorBrownRogicMcGregorTurnbullEdouardAjetiStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ErhahonDurmus10
FraserConnolly9
McCarthyDoyle-Hayes8
ConnollyFraser7
FraserFlynn7

Celtic

FromToPasses
TaylorMcGregor15
AjerWelsh13
McGregorTaylor13
BrownMcGregor13
KennyRogic11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.97+1.314+0.54−2.51−4.13−4.67−1.515+7.68−0.23−4.47+2.06−0.54−0.67+1.96+0.26+1.54+0.87+4.13−0.47+2.80−2.21−0.72+0.91−1.02−0.410.01+0.81+0.10−0.41+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Celtic

1−3.65+0.37−2.76+2.48+3.17−0.89+3.07+2.715+8.310+2.25−0.95−0.512+8.42−2.611+4.940.04−0.23−0.66+1.78+4.02−0.11−1.13+1.02−0.52−0.50−0.40−0.51+0.31+0.42+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.030.010.010.020.020.01−0.010.010.030.080.02−0.010.020.040.090.01−0.01−0.020.14LessMore

Celtic

0.010.020.020.030.010.030.020.040.040.010.020.040.040.030.050.130.030.030.070.090.040.08−0.11−0.020.150.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.07 → 1.05Celtic1.82 → 1.87Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.17 → 1.21Celtic0.84 → 0.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six84%80%−4
St. Johnstone
Top six11%13%+2
11th1%1%0
Motherwell
Top six4%5%+1
11th7%8%+1

From the forecast before the match (10 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.791.83
Win15%61%
Expected Points0.692.08
Clean sheet16%45%

St. Mirren 15%Draw 23%Celtic 61%

Most likely score 0–1, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%5%6%3%1%2%4%4%2%1%1%1%13%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six84%96%88%80%
St. Johnstone
Top six11%3%9%13%
11th1%1%1%1%
Motherwell
Top six4%1%2%5%
11th7%8%7%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W2–06 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.56–0.49
  2. L1–22 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.65–1.60
  3. W2–130 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.03–1.61
  4. W5–127 JanDundee United (A)xG 3.25–1.23
  5. L0–116 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.30–1.06
  6. D1–19 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.85

Celtic

  1. W2–16 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.57–0.42
  2. W4–02 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 2.13–1.87
  3. L1–230 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.61–1.03
  4. W2–027 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.23–0.58
  5. D2–220 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–0.77
  6. D0–016 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.42–1.22

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position6th2nd
Played2526
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠5–⁠1116–⁠7–⁠3
Points32 (1.28 per game)55 (2.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.291.92
Goals26–⁠2857–⁠21
xG per game1.13–⁠1.221.97–⁠0.99
Home: points, xG per game1.08, 1.22–⁠1.082.14, 1.80–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game1.46, 1.04–⁠1.352.08, 2.15–⁠1.10
ManagerJim Goodwin (25)Neil Lennon (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.07, 8thCeltic1.82, 2ndDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.17, 7thCeltic0.84, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.07Celtic attack: 1.821.821.07CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.17Celtic defence: 0.841.170.84

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+8%+70%−36%
Counter-attacks−7%−100%+150%−61%
Set pieces+2%−9%+14%+2%
Penalties−7%−30%+34%+12%
Headers−20%+15%−2%−18%
Left side−6%−2%+64%−19%
Centre−10%−19%+50%−24%
Right side−21%+33%+61%−40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−6%−40%Centre−10%−24%Right side−21%−19%Open play−18%−36%Counter-attacks−7%−61%Set pieces+2%+2%Headers−20%−18%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+64%+33%Centre+50%−19%Right side+61%−2%Open play+70%+8%Counter-attacks+150%−100%Set pieces+14%−9%Headers−2%+15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.13xG1.97
1.22xG against0.99
46%Possession67%
11.7Shots18.2
12.5Shots against8.4
3.5Shots on target6.7
1.2Big chances2.6
18.7Touches in the opposition box29.9
356Passes584
67%Pass accuracy85%
4.9Corners6.0
43%Field tilt73%
33.3Final-third entries66.9
8.3Box entries17.3
13.9Passes per defensive action9.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.101.20
Ahead211.411.23
Behind300.971.23

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.711.00
Ahead382.311.07
Behind101.740.65

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.173–2
16–300.160.244–8
31–450.260.176–6
46–600.090.212–5
61–750.140.243–6
76–900.310.188–1

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.136–3
16–300.270.1410–3
31–450.350.107–3
46–600.390.2011–4
61–750.350.217–4
76–900.380.2116–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 21Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 21Tait 2MacPherson 1McCarthy 24Shaughnessy 22Foley 3Tait 1Tait 18Obika 2Fraser 2McAllister 8Connolly 7McGrath 3McGrath 19MacPhers… 7MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 11Doyle-HayesObika 1Fraser 1Erhahon 17Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 8Mason 5Obika 3Obika 9Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 13Bain 8Hazard 5Frimpong 14Ajer 4Elhamed 3Duffy 12Bitton 9Jullien 9Ajer 18Taylor 12Laxalt 9Edouard 2Soro 9Brown 7Christie 4McGregor 24Turnbull 3Ntcham 2Christie 9Frimpong 4Forrest 3Turnbull 8Rogic 4Ntcham 4Edouard 9Elyounoussi 8Taylor 3Griffiths 7Ajeti 6Edouard 44-2-3-1 in 11 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-1-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 January 2021Celtic1–2St. MirrenxG 1.61–1.03
16 September 2020St. Mirren1–2CelticxG 1.12–2.18

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Celtic won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–3 and xG 1.08–1.90 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika151,421500.360.06
McGrath252,095510.230.15
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin9916200.260.06

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard161,3931220.810.17
Griffiths7608520.510.17
Turnbull131,091450.220.41
Elyounoussi141,144720.500.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.