Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–2 Celtic

Wednesday 16 September 2020, 19:45 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 3 · Half-time 1–2

St. Mirren Erwin 3'

Celtic Duffy 21', Forrest 36'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenCeltic
Goals12
xG1.122.18
Non-penalty xG1.121.39
Expected Points0.572.18

St. Mirren 10%Draw 25%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 1–2, 21%. Final score 1–2, 21%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+4%5%4%1%3%14%6%1%5%8%5%2%1%16%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcAllister on for Connolly, 64'Obika on for Morias, 79'Durmus on for Foley, 89'Ajeti on for Klimala, 66'Ntcham on for Edouard and Frimpong on for Forrest, 80'Erwin 3'Duffy 21'Forrest 36'Celtic 2.18St. Mirren 1.1201230153045607590HTMcAllister on for Connolly, 64'Obika on for Morias, 79'Durmus on for Foley, 89'Ajeti on for Klimala, 66'Ntcham on for Edouard and Frimpong on for Forrest, 80'Erwin 3'Duffy 21'Forrest 36'2.181.12St. MirrenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenCeltic

1.12 +0.07xG2.18 −0.55
1.12Non-penalty xG1.39
1.01 +0.11xG on target2.72 −0.37
8 −2Shots17 −3
2 −1.7Shots on target9 +0.6
1 −0.2Big chances4 +0.2
23% −20Possession77% +9
202 −129Passes704 +109
58% −5Pass accuracy90% +3
9% −31Field tilt91% +14
19 −11Final-third entries94 +23
2 −5.2Box entries20 −0.6
37.9 +24Passes per defensive action6.5 −4
4 0.0Corners3 −4.4
13 0Tackles13 −1
9 −3.2Interceptions7 −1.0
12 −14Clearances21 +7
7 +2.7Saves1 −0.6
13 +1Fouls11 0
1 −0.7Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Shaughnessy 3', 0.06 xGMcCarthy 40', 0.06 xGMcGrath 66', 0.05 xGMcGrath 88', 0.05 xGErwin 59', 0.04 xGObika 81', 0.04 xGFoley 85', 0.03 xGErwin 3', 0.79 xG, goal71%0.79 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.79 xG, 1 goal11%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals12%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Edouard 35', 0.28 xGEdouard 19', 0.09 xGEdouard 49', 0.07 xGKlimala 15', 0.06 xGMcGregor 46', 0.05 xGChristie 90+1', 0.05 xGKlimala 44', 0.04 xGBrown 59', 0.04 xGAjer 2', 0.03 xGMcGregor 27', 0.03 xGDuffy 32', 0.03 xGKlimala 49', 0.03 xGChristie 53', 0.03 xGNtcham 83', 0.03 xGDuffy 21', 0.36 xG, goalForrest 36', 0.19 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals77%1.06 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.06 xG, 2 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals13%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals8%0.11 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenCeltic

0.18 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.90 12 shots, 1 goal
0.94 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.49 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (20%) · St. Mirren 0.85, Celtic 0.55 xG
St. Mirren ahead
18 min (20%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Celtic 0.51 xG
Celtic ahead
55 min (60%) · St. Mirren 0.27, Celtic 1.12 xG

Line-ups

2922542251917162123ZlamalFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitErhahonMoriasMcGrathFoleyConnollyErwinYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal79'89'64'St. Mirren 4-1-4-1Jim Goodwin144435491784231122BarkasElhamedDuffyAjerForrestChristieBrownMcGregorTaylorKlimalaEdouardGoalGoalYellow card80'66'80'Celtic 3-5-2Neil Lennon

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 64' McAllister for Connolly
  • 79' Obika for Morias
  • 89' Durmus for Foley

Celtic substitutes

  • 66' Ajeti for Klimala
  • 80' Frimpong for Forrest
  • 80' Ntcham for Edouard

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ZlamalGK900.000.0000.0231
Fraser RB900.000.0000.0354
McCarthyCB900.060.0000.0117
ShaughnessyCB9010.060.0010.0113
Tait LB900.000.0100.0440
Erhahon DM900.000.0000.0015
MoriasRM790.000.0310.0521
McGrathCM900.100.2030.0456
FoleyCM890.030.0100.0005
ConnollyLM640.000.0100.0232
ErwinST9010.830.001−0.0100
McAllisterMF260.000.0000.0110
ObikaFW110.040.0000.0000
DurmusFW10.000.000––0

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BarkasGK900.000.0000.0100
ElhamedCB900.000.0420.12117
DuffyCB9010.390.0500.2164
AjerCB900.030.0800.271610
ForrestRWB8010.190.2610.2861
ChristieCM9020.080.5160.1254
Brown CM900.040.1310.1091
McGregorCM900.080.4220.2275
TaylorLWB900.000.0910.2297
KlimalaST660.130.010−0.0301
EdouardST801.220.1300.0821
AjetiFW240.000.021−0.0801
FrimpongDF100.000.0100.0210
NtchamMF100.030.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Fraser and Erhahon: 3 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 3 passesTait and McGrath: 3 passesTait and Erwin: 3 passesMorias and McGrath: 3 passesFoley and Connolly: 3 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 3 passesMcGrath and Connolly: 4 passesFraser and McCarthy: 5 passesFraser and Foley: 5 passesTait and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Erwin: 6 passesTait and Connolly: 7 passesFraser and Morias: 8 passesFraser and McGrath: 9 passesZlamal: 3 completed passesFraser: 26 completed passesShaughnessy: 4 completed passesMcCarthy: 8 completed passesTait: 16 completed passesErhahon: 8 completed passesMorias: 5 completed passesFoley: 9 completed passesMcGrath: 17 completed passesConnolly: 6 completed passesErwin: 4 completed passes2922452251916172123ZlamalFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitErhahonMoriasFoleyMcGrathConnollyErwinStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Forrest and Brown: 6 passesChristie and Brown: 6 passesDuffy and Forrest: 7 passesElhamed and McGregor: 7 passesDuffy and Brown: 8 passesDuffy and McGregor: 8 passesAjer and Christie: 8 passesElhamed and Brown: 9 passesForrest and Christie: 9 passesForrest and McGregor: 9 passesBarkas and Duffy: 11 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 11 passesBarkas and Ajer: 12 passesElhamed and Christie: 12 passesDuffy and Christie: 13 passesElhamed and Forrest: 13 passesElhamed and Ajer: 15 passesAjer and Brown: 18 passesAjer and Taylor: 23 passesBrown and McGregor: 24 passesTaylor and McGregor: 29 passesAjer and McGregor: 32 passesDuffy and Elhamed: 36 passesDuffy and Ajer: 52 passesBarkas: 19 completed passesDuffy: 71 completed passesElhamed: 54 completed passesAjer: 85 completed passesForrest: 23 completed passesTaylor: 40 completed passesChristie: 32 completed passesBrown: 45 completed passesMcGregor: 64 completed passesEdouard: 10 completed passesKlimala: 7 completed passes144435493178422211BarkasDuffyElhamedAjerForrestTaylorChristieBrownMcGregorEdouardKlimalaStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserMorias7
FraserErwin6
FraserMcGrath6
McGrathErwin5
TaitErhahon4

Celtic

FromToPasses
AjerDuffy36
DuffyAjer34
McGregorAjer26
TaylorMcGregor24
ElhamedDuffy24

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−3.510+1.76−2.24−1.55−2.711+3.511+4.39+0.28−0.25+0.53−3.51−4.30−5.26−0.30−5.30−3.23−0.23−1.22−1.23+0.80−1.00−1.50−2.30−2.50−0.200.01+0.70−0.21−0.25−12.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Celtic

2−1.250.09+1.05+0.26+0.87+2.44+0.23−3.27−0.84−0.410+3.81−1.07+1.63−0.43+0.23+0.87+3.28+4.01−0.62−0.62+0.45+3.01−2.81+1.00−0.40−0.82+1.63+2.21−4.43−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.01−0.01−0.010.010.020.020.030.03LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.030.040.010.050.080.050.010.080.130.170.110.080.050.040.050.16−0.15−0.070.090.260.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.99AttackSt. Mirren0.70 → 0.76Celtic1.83 → 1.81Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37 → 1.31Celtic0.32 → 0.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six13%12%−1
11th19%20%+1
Bottom22%23%+1
Celtic
Title61%62%+1
Rangers
Title39%37%−2
Hamilton Academical
11th20%20%0
Bottom35%35%0

From the forecast before the match (16 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenCeltic
Expected goals0.262.56
Win2%87%
Expected Points0.182.71
Clean sheet8%77%

St. Mirren 2%Draw 11%Celtic 87%

Most likely score 0–2, 20%. Both sides score 21%.

Celtic goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%11%5%4%1%4%5%4%3%1%15%20%17%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawCeltic win
St. Mirren
Top six13%28%19%12%
11th19%14%16%20%
Bottom22%8%14%23%
Celtic
Title61%47%52%62%
Rangers
Title39%52%47%37%
Hamilton Academical
11th20%24%19%20%
Bottom35%40%40%35%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–312 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.24–1.09
  2. L0–129 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–2.84
  3. D1–122 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–2.21
  4. W1–015 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.97–0.83
  5. L0–39 AugRangers (A)xG 0.42–2.65
  6. W1–01 AugLivingston (H)xG 1.04–0.55

Celtic

  1. W5–012 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.32–0.81
  2. W3–030 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.06–0.22
  3. W1–022 AugDundee United (A)xG 3.00–0.29
  4. D1–19 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.06
  5. W5–12 AugHamilton Academical (H)xG 4.51–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenCeltic
Position7th3rd
Played65
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠34–⁠1–⁠0
Points7 (1.17 per game)13 (2.60 per game)
Expected Points per game1.092.45
Goals3–⁠815–⁠2
xG per game1.05–⁠1.702.73–⁠0.57
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.20–⁠1.283.00, 3.29–⁠0.34
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.89–⁠2.112.33, 2.35–⁠0.72
ManagerJim Goodwin (6)Neil Lennon (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.99AttackSt. Mirren0.70, 12thCeltic1.83, 1stDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.37, 11thCeltic0.32, 1st

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepSt. Mirren attack: 0.70Celtic attack: 1.831.830.70CelticSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepSt. Mirren defence: 1.37Celtic defence: 0.321.370.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%+54%+97%−57%
Counter-attacks+48%−100%+668%−83%
Set pieces+19%+26%+30%−47%
Penalties−100%−100%+25%+25%
Headers−39%+82%−48%−35%
Left side−29%−2%+51%−60%
Centre+11%+25%+120%−56%
Right side−41%+116%+94%−46%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−29%−46%Centre+11%−56%Right side−41%−60%Open play−29%−57%Counter-attacks+48%−83%Set pieces+19%−47%Headers−39%−35%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+51%+116%Centre+120%+25%Right side+94%−2%Open play+97%+54%Counter-attacks+668%−100%Set pieces+30%+26%Headers−48%+82%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenCeltic

1.05xG2.73
1.70xG against0.57
43%Possession68%
10.0Shots20.0
17.7Shots against6.8
3.7Shots on target8.4
1.2Big chances3.8
331Passes595
62%Pass accuracy87%
4.0Corners7.4
40%Field tilt77%
30.2Final-third entries71.2
7.2Box entries20.6
14.0Passes per defensive action10.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level320.922.07
Ahead311.141.34
Behind271.091.65

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level452.110.31
Ahead453.340.83
Behind0––

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.281–1
16–300.300.192–2
31–450.240.300–0
46–600.140.390–1
61–750.010.360–4
76–900.270.180–0

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.092–0
16–300.270.232–1
31–450.550.062–1
46–600.400.073–0
61–750.730.103–0
76–900.500.033–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMSTSTAlnwick 5Zlamal 1Fraser 6McCarthy 5Foley 2Shaughnessy 4Tait 1Tait 5Durmus 1Foley 4MacPherson 3Sheron 5McAllister 1McGrath 4Erhahon 1McAllister 3McGrath 2Durmus 1Morias 3Dennis 1Obika 6Durmus 24-3-1-2 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 4Bain 1Frimpong 3Duffy 1Elhamed 1Jullien 5Ajer 4Bitton 1Taylor 4Edouard 1Brown 3Frimpong 1McGregor 5Forrest 1Forrest 2Christie 2Ntcham 1Ntcham 2Brown 1Christie 1Elyounoussi 3Edouard 1Forrest 1Edouard 2Brown 1Ajeti 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika6526200.280.11
Tait6540110.090.18
McGrath6532010.060.09
Fraser6500000.000.11

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Jullien5450110.210.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.