Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 1–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 30 January 2021, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 13 · Half-time 1–2

Celtic Edouard 32'

St. Mirren Dennis 18', Durmus 37'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticSt. Mirren
Goals12
xG1.611.03
Expected Points1.800.92

Celtic 50%Draw 28%St. Mirren 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–2, 7%.

St. Mirren goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%6%3%11%7%2%9%7%2%4%6%3%1%2%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTRogic on for Griffiths and Welsh on for Bitton, 46'Ajeti on for Elyounoussi, 62'Christie on for Soro, 63'Johnston on for Turnbull, 82'Brophy on for Dennis and Doyle-Hayes on for McAllister, 62'Obika on for MacPherson, 74'Tait on for Connolly, 85'Edouard 32'Dennis 18'Durmus 37'Celtic 1.61St. Mirren 1.0300.511.520153045607590HTRogic on for Griffiths and Welsh on for Bitton, 46'Ajeti on for Elyounoussi, 62'Christie on for Soro, 63'Johnston on for Turnbull, 82'Brophy on for Dennis and Doyle-Hayes on for McAllister, 62'Obika on for MacPherson, 74'Tait on for Connolly, 85'Edouard 32'Dennis 18'Durmus 37'1.611.03CelticSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticSt. Mirren

1.61 −0.38xG1.03 −0.10
0.93 −1.21xG on target1.10 +0.18
19 +1Shots11 −1
4 −2.8Shots on target5 +1.5
2 −0.7Big chances2 +0.9
29 +1Touches in the opposition box11 −8
68% +1Possession32% −15
600 +20Passes277 −80
83% −2Pass accuracy57% −10
77% +4Field tilt23% −21
77 +11Final-third entries18 −16
18 +1.4Box entries5 −3.3
10.1 +0.3Passes per defensive action35.5 +22.0
4 −2.2Corners3 −2.2
14 +1Tackles22 +9
5 −4.7Interceptions22 +10.4
13 −2Clearances17 −3
3 +1.7Saves3 −0.5
11 −1Fouls5 −7
1 −0.3Offsides3 +1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Duffy 90+4', 0.53 xGDuffy 90+4', 0.29 xGElyounoussi 15', 0.08 xGJohnston 88', 0.08 xGDuffy 55', 0.07 xGEdouard 87', 0.07 xGTurnbull 69', 0.06 xGTurnbull 36', 0.04 xGTurnbull 40', 0.04 xGJohnston 86', 0.04 xGMcGregor 5', 0.03 xGGriffiths 31', 0.03 xGBitton 45+1', 0.03 xGMcGregor 53', 0.03 xGTurnbull 54', 0.03 xGChristie 69', 0.03 xGChristie 77', 0.03 xGEdouard 45', 0.02 xGEdouard 32', 0.08 xG, goal33%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.53 xG, 0 goals32%0.51 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals9%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal24%0.38 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Dennis 26', 0.08 xGObika 82', 0.08 xGDennis 23', 0.06 xGObika 90+5', 0.05 xGDennis 12', 0.03 xGMcGrath 14', 0.03 xGMcAllister 51', 0.03 xGMcAllister 61', 0.03 xGConnolly 82', 0.03 xGDennis 18', 0.33 xG, goalDurmus 37', 0.28 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.83 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.83 xG, 2 goals5%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals9%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticSt. Mirren

1.38 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.95 10 shots, 2 goals
0.24 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Celtic 0.15, St. Mirren 0.67 xG
St. Mirren ahead
73 min (76%) · Celtic 1.46, St. Mirren 0.36 xG

Line-ups

293564312142742922BainAjerBittonDuffyTaylorSoroTurnbullElyounoussiMcGregorGriffithsEdouardGoal46'63'82'62'46'Celtic 4-1-3-2Neil Lennon1225421172514111020AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyConnollyMcGrathErhahonMacPhersonDurmusMcAllisterDennisGoalGoal85'74'62'62'St. Mirren 3-5-1-1Jim Goodwin

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Welsh for Bitton
  • 46' Rogic for Griffiths
  • 62' Ajeti for Elyounoussi
  • 63' Christie for Soro
  • 82' Johnston for Turnbull

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 62' Doyle-Hayes for McAllister
  • 62' Brophy for Dennis
  • 74' Obika for MacPherson
  • 85' Tait for Connolly

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0100
AjerRB900.000.0510.0786
BittonCB460.030.0100.0646
DuffyCB900.890.0300.181610
TaylorLB900.000.2820.52135
SoroDM630.000.0410.0891
TurnbullCM820.160.1740.1492
ElyounoussiAM620.080.061−0.0440
McGregorCM9010.070.1210.18110
GriffithsST460.030.131−0.0200
EdouardST9010.180.080−0.0430
WelshDF440.000.0100.0643
RogicFW440.000.0700.0822
AjetiFW280.000.041−0.0211
ChristieMF270.070.1200.20100
JohnstonFW80.120.0100.0500

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0560
FraserCB900.000.0000.0329
McCarthyCB900.000.0000.01210
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.04418
ConnollyRWB8510.030.0420.0121
McGrathCM900.030.1720.0115
ErhahonCM900.000.0110.0116
MacPhersonCM740.000.0100.0138
DurmusLWB9010.280.0000.0225
McAllisterAM6210.060.1630.1352
DennisST6210.500.0210.0101
Doyle-HayesMF280.000.0000.0120
BrophyFW280.000.0010.0110
ObikaFW160.130.0000.0321
TaitDF50.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Bain and Bitton: 4 passesBitton and Elyounoussi: 4 passesTaylor and Soro: 4 passesSoro and Griffiths: 4 passesElyounoussi and Edouard: 4 passesAjer and Bitton: 5 passesDuffy and Soro: 5 passesTurnbull and Griffiths: 5 passesElyounoussi and Turnbull: 6 passesTurnbull and McGregor: 6 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 7 passesBitton and Turnbull: 8 passesTaylor and Elyounoussi: 8 passesSoro and McGregor: 8 passesBitton and Soro: 9 passesSoro and Elyounoussi: 9 passesSoro and Turnbull: 9 passesTurnbull and Edouard: 9 passesBain and Duffy: 10 passesDuffy and Taylor: 11 passesDuffy and McGregor: 11 passesTaylor and McGregor: 12 passesTaylor and Edouard: 12 passesElyounoussi and McGregor: 13 passesDuffy and Bitton: 17 passesAjer and Turnbull: 19 passesBain: 10 completed passesAjer: 20 completed passesDuffy: 33 completed passesBitton: 28 completed passesTaylor: 30 completed passesSoro: 27 completed passesElyounoussi: 19 completed passesTurnbull: 31 completed passesMcGregor: 31 completed passesEdouard: 16 completed passesGriffiths: 10 completed passes293546312271442229BainAjerDuffyBittonTaylorSoroElyounoussiTurnbullMcGregorEdouardGriffithsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Dennis: 3 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 3 passesMcCarthy and Connolly: 3 passesMcGrath and McAllister: 3 passesMcGrath and Dennis: 3 passesAlnwick and McGrath: 4 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 4 passesMacPherson and Erhahon: 4 passesMacPherson and McAllister: 4 passesMacPherson and Dennis: 4 passesMcCarthy and MacPherson: 5 passesAlnwick and Fraser: 6 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 7 passesFraser and Connolly: 7 passesFraser and MacPherson: 7 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 8 passesDurmus and McGrath: 8 passesMcAllister and Dennis: 8 passesConnolly and MacPherson: 9 passesDurmus and McAllister: 14 passesAlnwick: 13 completed passesShaughnessy: 10 completed passesMcCarthy: 15 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesConnolly: 11 completed passesDurmus: 15 completed passesMcGrath: 14 completed passesMacPherson: 18 completed passesErhahon: 8 completed passesMcAllister: 15 completed passesDennis: 9 completed passes1452221111714251020AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserConnollyDurmusMcGrathMacPhersonErhahonMcAllisterDennisStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTaylor19
DuffyTaylor15
BainDuffy14
TaylorEdouard12
BittonDuffy12

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyAlnwick7
McAllisterDurmus7
DurmusMcAllister7
MacPhersonConnolly6
AlnwickFraser5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

6+1.44−0.910+0.51−2.77+2.210+2.38+2.34−0.35−1.66−2.05−0.93−2.76+2.66+1.53−3.440.09+5.06+2.66+1.840.020.03+1.03+1.23+0.63+0.41+0.60−0.52+1.30−0.62+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

St. Mirren

6+1.17+1.518+4.911+4.57+1.71−6.419+10.814+7.012+3.86−1.76+1.36−0.710+5.54−1.21−5.02−2.40−3.51−2.02−1.45+1.01−1.40−1.80−1.20−2.23+0.62+1.00−0.21+0.20−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.020.020.010.020.100.030.050.070.050.030.100.090.110.070.050.080.15−0.110.18−0.01−0.01−0.050.040.030.38LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.020.030.010.010.010.010.010.030.040.010.03−0.010.03−0.030.030.07−0.01−0.010.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackCeltic1.81 → 1.80St. Mirren1.01 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.80 → 0.82St. Mirren1.20 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six58%80%+22
11th1%<1%−1
Dundee United
Top six13%6%−7
11th6%5%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six14%8%−6
11th8%7%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticSt. Mirren
Expected goals2.010.68
Win68%11%
Expected Points2.250.54
Clean sheet51%13%

Celtic 68%Draw 21%St. Mirren 11%

Most likely score 2–0, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

St. Mirren goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+7%4%2%10%3%9%3%9%6%2%5%3%1%2%1%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawSt. Mirren win
St. Mirren
Top six58%53%63%80%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Dundee United
Top six13%14%11%6%
11th6%6%6%5%
Kilmarnock
Top six14%15%13%8%
11th8%8%7%7%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–027 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.23–0.58
  2. D2–220 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–0.77
  3. D0–016 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.42–1.22
  4. D1–111 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.83
  5. L0–12 JanRangers (A)xG 0.61–0.58
  6. W3–030 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–0.95

St. Mirren

  1. W5–127 JanDundee United (A)xG 3.25–1.23
  2. L0–116 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.30–1.06
  3. D1–19 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.85
  4. D1–12 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.52–0.97
  5. L0–230 DecRangers (H)xG 0.71–0.71
  6. W2–026 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.79–0.54

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticSt. Mirren
Position2nd7th
Played2322
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠7–⁠27–⁠5–⁠10
Points49 (2.13 per game)26 (1.18 per game)
Expected Points per game1.931.30
Goals50–⁠1821–⁠25
xG per game1.99–⁠0.971.13–⁠1.22
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 1.84–⁠0.931.00, 1.25–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 2.16–⁠1.031.33, 1.04–⁠1.33
ManagerNeil Lennon (23)Jim Goodwin (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackCeltic1.81, 2ndSt. Mirren1.01, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.80, 2ndSt. Mirren1.20, 8th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanCeltic attack: 1.81St. Mirren attack: 1.011.811.01St. MirrenCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanCeltic defence: 0.80St. Mirren defence: 1.201.200.80

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+68%−38%−22%+9%
Counter-attacks+178%−57%−49%−100%
Set pieces+20%−6%+12%−7%
Penalties+22%+22%+2%−49%
Headers−3%−41%−13%+14%
Left side+64%−24%−3%−3%
Centre+59%−28%−6%−17%
Right side+53%−41%−37%+35%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+64%+35%Centre+59%−17%Right side+53%−3%Open play+68%+9%Counter-attacks+178%−100%Set pieces+20%−7%Headers−3%+14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdCeltic concededLeft side−3%−41%Centre−6%−28%Right side−37%−24%Open play−22%−38%Counter-attacks−49%−57%Set pieces+12%−6%Headers−13%−41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticSt. Mirren

1.99xG1.13
0.97xG against1.22
67%Possession47%
18.2Shots12.0
8.2Shots against12.3
6.8Shots on target3.5
2.7Big chances1.1
28.0Touches in the opposition box19.2
580Passes357
85%Pass accuracy67%
6.2Corners5.2
73%Field tilt44%
66.1Final-third entries34.3
16.6Box entries8.3
9.8Passes per defensive action13.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.760.98
Ahead362.351.03
Behind91.660.71

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.151.31
Ahead191.441.18
Behind320.941.13

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.155–3
16–300.290.149–2
31–450.380.096–2
46–600.370.209–4
61–750.360.206–3
76–900.360.2015–4

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.183–2
16–300.160.273–8
31–450.250.184–5
46–600.110.222–4
61–750.110.211–5
76–900.340.158–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 13Bain 5Hazard 5Frimpong 14Ajer 3Elhamed 3Duffy 11Jullien 9Bitton 8Ajer 16Welsh 2Taylor 9Laxalt 9Edouard 2Soro 8Brown 7Christie 3McGregor 23Ntcham 2Turnbull 1Christie 9Frimpong 4Forrest 3Turnbull 8Rogic 4Ntcham 4Elyounoussi 8Edouard 6Taylor 3Griffiths 6Edouard 4Ajeti 44-2-3-1 in 11 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 19Zlamal 3Fraser 20Tait 1MacPherson 1McCarthy 21Shaughnessy 19Foley 3Tait 1Tait 17Obika 2Fraser 2Connolly 7McAllister 7McGrath 2McGrath 18MacPhers… 6MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 9Doyle-HayesObika 1Brophy 1Erhahon 15Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 7Mason 5Obika 3Obika 8Erwin 8Morias 34-5-1 in 8 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 September 2020St. Mirren1–2CelticxG 1.12–2.18

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Celtic won 1, St. Mirren won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 2.18–1.12 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard131,140820.820.17
Griffiths6540520.570.17
Turnbull10856420.240.42
Elyounoussi131,052720.530.12

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath221,825510.230.15
Obika141,271300.310.06
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin9916200.260.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.