Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Aberdeen 3–1 Hibernian

Saturday 19 March 2022, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 31 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 15,321

Aberdeen Ferguson 37' (pen), 64' (pen), Besuijen 80'

Hibernian Ramsay 20' (og) · Porteous sent off 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHibernian
Goals31
xG2.190.55
Non-penalty xG0.620.55
Expected Points2.640.23

Aberdeen 84%Draw 13%Hibernian 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 25%. Final score 3–1, 9%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+1%10%7%2%16%4%14%9%2%4%2%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTPorteous (Hibernian), red card 63'McGeouch on for Ramsay and Watkins on for McLennan, 78'Ruth on for Ramirez, 87'Polvara on for Barron and Jenks on for Besuijen, 90'Mueller on for Wright, 61'Hanlon on for Stevenson, Henderson on for Newell, and O'Connor on for Melkersen, 81'Ferguson 37' (pen)Ferguson 64' (pen)Besuijen 80'Ramsay 20' (og)Aberdeen 2.19Hibernian 0.5501230153045607590HTPorteous (Hibernian), red card 63'McGeouch on for Ramsay and Watkins on for McLennan, 78'Ruth on for Ramirez, 87'Polvara on for Barron and Jenks on for Besuijen, 90'Mueller on for Wright, 61'Hanlon on for Stevenson, Henderson on for Newell, and O'Connor on for Melkersen, 81'Ferguson 37' (pen)Ferguson 64' (pen)Besuijen 80'Ramsay 20' (og)2.190.55AberdeenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHibernian

2.19 +1.12xG0.55 −0.61
0.62Non-penalty xG0.55
2.74 +1.65xG on target0.40 −0.72
14 +1Shots7 −4
5 +0.5Shots on target2 −1.5
3 +1.9Big chances0 −1.4
19 +2Touches in the opposition box8 −11
62% +5Possession38% −16
469 +17Passes290 −134
83% +8Pass accuracy69% −7
72% +16Field tilt28% −24
35 −3Final-third entries26 −13
9 +0.1Box entries3 −8.1
7.7 −7Passes per defensive action29.5 +17
4 −0.7Corners5 −0.6
14 +2Tackles10 −4
9 +0.8Interceptions11 +1.7
14 −4Clearances12 −5
2 +0.6Saves2 −0.6
17 +4Fouls14 +2
1 −0.6Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

McLennan 10', 0.14 xGBates 62', 0.12 xGBates 75', 0.11 xGFerguson 75', 0.04 xGBarron 35', 0.03 xGFerguson 19', 0.02 xGHayes 42', 0.02 xGBarron 48', 0.02 xGMcLennan 52', 0.02 xGMcLennan 8', 0.01 xGFerguson 33', 0.01 xGBesuijen 80', 0.07 xG, goal23%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals48%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals23%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Melkersen 54', 0.23 xGPorteous 54', 0.08 xGO'Connor 85', 0.07 xGStevenson 3', 0.06 xGBushiri 54', 0.05 xGJasper 74', 0.05 xGCampbell 77', 0.01 xG42%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals22%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals13%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals24%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHibernian

0.37 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.14 3 shots, 0 goals
0.24 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.41 4 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 2 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
47 min (52%) · Aberdeen 1.14, Hibernian 0.41 xG
Aberdeen ahead
26 min (29%) · Aberdeen 0.22, Hibernian 0.14 xG
Hibernian ahead
17 min (19%) · Aberdeen 0.83, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

122527172910219189LewisRamsayGallagherBatesHayesBarronBesuijenMcCrorieFergusonMcLennanRamirezOwn goalYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoal78'90'90'78'87'Aberdeen 4-1-4-1Jim Goodwin2127335332111683420DabrowskiCaddenBushiriPorteousDoigCampbellNewellStevensonWrightMelkersenJasperSent offYellow cardYellow cardYellow card81'81'61'81'Hibernian 4-3-3Shaun Maloney

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 78' McGeouch for Ramsay
  • 78' Watkins for McLennan · 1 assist
  • 87' Ruth for Ramirez
  • 90' Polvara for Barron
  • 90' Jenks for Besuijen

Hibernian substitutes

  • 61' Mueller for Wright
  • 81' Hanlon for Stevenson
  • 81' Henderson for Newell · yellow card 89'
  • 81' O'Connor for Melkersen

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0110
RamsayRB780.000.1400.2135
GallagherCB900.000.0000.0543
Bates CB900.230.0000.1537
HayesLB900.020.0100.0568
BarronDM900.050.2520.0684
BesuijenRM9010.070.2510.2482
McCrorie CM900.000.0900.1164
FergusonCM9021.650.0200.0163
McLennanLM780.170.0440.0151
RamirezST870.000.0000.0002
McGeouchMF120.000.0100.0101
WatkinsFW1210.000.0010.0220
RuthFW30.000.0000.0000
PolvaraMF00.000.0000.0000
JenksFW00.000.0000.0111

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DabrowskiGK900.000.0000.0122
CaddenRB900.000.0110.0765
BushiriCB900.050.0000.0116
Porteous CB630.080.0000.0233
DoigLB900.000.0000.0333
Campbell CM900.010.0200.0043
Newell CM810.000.1010.0526
Stevenson CM810.060.0100.0564
WrightRW610.000.0100.0013
MelkersenST810.230.000−0.0200
JasperLW900.050.0500.0441
MuellerFW290.000.041−0.0100
HanlonDF90.000.0000.0110
Henderson MF90.000.0100.0100
O'ConnorMF90.070.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Ramsay and Bates: 5 passesGallagher and Besuijen: 5 passesBates and McCrorie: 5 passesFerguson and McCrorie: 5 passesLewis and Ramsay: 6 passesBesuijen and McLennan: 6 passesBarron and Besuijen: 7 passesGallagher and Barron: 8 passesGallagher and McCrorie: 8 passesBesuijen and McCrorie: 8 passesLewis and Bates: 9 passesRamsay and Besuijen: 9 passesGallagher and Ferguson: 9 passesBarron and Ferguson: 9 passesBarron and McLennan: 9 passesLewis and Gallagher: 10 passesRamsay and McCrorie: 10 passesFerguson and McLennan: 10 passesRamsay and Ferguson: 11 passesBates and Barron: 12 passesHayes and Ferguson: 12 passesBates and Hayes: 15 passesHayes and McLennan: 15 passesRamsay and Gallagher: 20 passesBates and Ferguson: 20 passesGallagher and Bates: 32 passesLewis: 18 completed passesRamsay: 36 completed passesGallagher: 48 completed passesBates: 57 completed passesHayes: 27 completed passesBarron: 32 completed passesBesuijen: 17 completed passesFerguson: 38 completed passesMcCrorie: 20 completed passesMcLennan: 22 completed passesRamirez: 2 completed passes122527172910192189LewisRamsayGallagherBatesHayesBarronBesuijenFergusonMcCrorieMcLennanRamirezStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hibernian

Dabrowski and Bushiri: 3 passesDabrowski and Porteous: 3 passesCadden and Porteous: 3 passesCadden and Campbell: 3 passesCadden and Melkersen: 3 passesBushiri and Newell: 3 passesDoig and Stevenson: 3 passesCadden and Bushiri: 4 passesBushiri and Campbell: 4 passesPorteous and Newell: 4 passesPorteous and Campbell: 4 passesDoig and Jasper: 4 passesNewell and Jasper: 4 passesCampbell and Stevenson: 4 passesCampbell and Wright: 4 passesCadden and Newell: 5 passesNewell and Stevenson: 5 passesCadden and Stevenson: 6 passesPorteous and Doig: 6 passesNewell and Wright: 6 passesStevenson and Wright: 6 passesDoig and Newell: 8 passesNewell and Campbell: 9 passesCadden and Wright: 10 passesStevenson and Jasper: 10 passesDabrowski: 10 completed passesCadden: 19 completed passesBushiri: 11 completed passesPorteous: 14 completed passesDoig: 16 completed passesNewell: 24 completed passesCampbell: 19 completed passesStevenson: 20 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesMelkersen: 4 completed passesJasper: 8 completed passes2127335311321683420DabrowskiCaddenBushiriPorteousDoigNewellCampbellStevensonWrightMelkersenJasperStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
GallagherBates18
BatesGallagher17
FergusonBates12
RamsayGallagher11
BatesHayes11

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonJasper8
CaddenWright7
NewellCadden7
CampbellNewell6
JasperStevenson5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

4−0.86+0.414+2.51−4.150.05−2.44−2.13−1.913+6.05−3.511+4.82−2.65+1.79+3.610+4.39+5.14+0.84+1.94+1.54−0.52−0.51−0.310.02+0.64+1.52+1.30−0.21+0.30−0.20−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Hibernian

6+1.43−1.613+1.27+1.45+0.29+2.47+1.78+1.08+2.42−3.44+0.59+2.23−2.42−1.52−0.12−1.42−2.33+0.72+0.51+0.12+0.93+0.50−1.10−0.11+0.10−0.32+1.23−4.34−4.31−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.030.010.040.040.040.030.02−0.010.090.08−0.01−0.02−0.020.100.010.210.18LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.010.030.010.010.030.03−0.01−0.010.010.01−0.030.020.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackAberdeen1.04 → 1.09Hibernian1.07 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.00 → 1.00Hibernian0.95 → 0.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six13%30%+17
11th1%<1%−1
Hibernian
Top six78%62%−16
Motherwell
Top six42%42%0
St. Johnstone
11th71%72%+1
Bottom25%24%−1

From the forecast before the match (19 March 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHibernian
Expected goals0.990.90
Win36%31%
Expected Points1.411.26
Clean sheet41%37%

Aberdeen 36%Draw 33%Hibernian 31%

Most likely score 0–0, 16%. Both sides score 38%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+6%2%6%2%7%7%3%2%2%1%16%13%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 March 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHibernian win
Aberdeen
Top six13%30%6%<1%
11th1%<1%2%2%
Hibernian
Top six78%62%78%97%
Motherwell
Top six42%42%44%39%
St. Johnstone
11th71%72%71%68%
Bottom25%24%24%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–15 MarRangers (A)xG 0.09–1.69
  2. L0–22 MarHearts (A)xG 0.92–1.15
  3. D1–126 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.91–0.94
  4. D1–119 FebMotherwell (A)xG 1.23–2.62
  5. D1–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.12–1.17
  6. L2–39 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.67–1.12

Hibernian

  1. D0–05 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.99–0.44
  2. D0–02 MarDundee FC (A)xG 0.58–0.20
  3. D0–027 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.13–0.94
  4. W2–019 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.00–0.19
  5. L0–29 FebRangers (A)xG 0.81–2.45
  6. L0–15 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.22–0.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHibernian
Position10th4th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠8–⁠149–⁠10–⁠11
Points32 (1.07 per game)37 (1.23 per game)
Expected Points per game1.381.46
Goals33–⁠3828–⁠30
xG per game1.07–⁠0.961.16–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game1.57, 1.35–⁠0.761.44, 1.12–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.82–⁠1.141.00, 1.20–⁠1.09
ManagerJim Goodwin (4)Shaun Maloney (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackAberdeen1.04, 5thHibernian1.07, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.00, 4thHibernian0.95, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAberdeen attack: 1.04Hibernian attack: 1.071.071.04HibernianAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAberdeen defence: 1.00Hibernian defence: 0.951.000.95

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−26%average−17%
Counter-attacks−47%−27%+57%+15%
Set pieces+5%−8%−33%−10%
Penaltiesaverageaverage+25%−25%
Headers+9%−13%−15%−1%
Left side−6%−24%+2%−10%
Centre−16%−21%−14%−10%
Right side−11%−22%+1%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−6%−28%Centre−16%−10%Right side−11%−10%Open play−16%−17%Counter-attacks−47%+15%Set pieces+5%−10%Headers+9%−1%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+2%−22%Centre−14%−21%Right side+1%−24%Open playaverage−26%Counter-attacks+57%−27%Set pieces−33%−8%Headers−15%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHibernian

1.07xG1.16
0.96xG against1.02
57%Possession54%
12.7Shots11.5
8.9Shots against10.5
4.5Shots on target3.5
1.1Big chances1.4
17.3Touches in the opposition box18.6
452Passes424
75%Pass accuracy76%
4.7Corners5.6
56%Field tilt53%
38.0Final-third entries39.2
8.9Box entries11.1
14.3Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.861.10
Ahead151.271.09
Behind261.350.63

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.120.87
Ahead181.091.01
Behind221.301.39

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.204–6
16–300.140.126–6
31–450.160.134–5
46–600.130.186–10
61–750.290.1410–6
76–900.190.193–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.142–6
16–300.130.183–6
31–450.210.147–3
46–600.200.216–6
61–750.230.164–3
76–900.230.206–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLewis 26Woods 4Ramsay 16Ojo 9Gurr 3McCrorie 18Gallagher 13Brown 4Bates 22Considine 2MacKenzie 1Hayes 11MacKenzie 8Campbell 6Ferguson 19McGeouch 8Barron 5Brown 13Ojo 5Longstaff 3Hedges 9Ojo 6Besuijen 5Ferguson 9Brown 6Jenks 6Hayes 8Watkins 8Ramirez 3Ramirez 24Watkins 3Emmanuel-Thomas 24-2-3-1 in 12 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 4-3-3 (6), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTMacey 26Dabrowski 4McGinn 11Boyle 9Bushiri 8Porteous 25Wood 1Hanlon 18Stevenson 7McGregor 5Cadden 19McGinn 9Doig 1Doyle-Hayes 26Cadden 2Stevenson 1Newell 17Campbell 8Gogic 3Doig 20Stevenson 6Mitchell 2Campbell 9Henderson 5Allan 4Nisbet 25Doidge 6Scott 2Boyle 11Murphy 8Jasper 33-4-1-2 in 12 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 December 2021Hibernian1–0AberdeenxG 0.41–0.70
23 October 2021Aberdeen1–0HibernianxG 0.24–0.22
12 May 2021Aberdeen0–1HibernianxG 1.28–0.44
6 February 2021Hibernian2–0AberdeenxG 2.26–0.54
6 November 2020Aberdeen2–0HibernianxG 0.88–0.67
30 August 2020Hibernian0–1AberdeenxG 0.46–1.73

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 3, Hibernian won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–4 and xG 0.90–0.74 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watkins11967300.380.09
Ferguson282,511710.260.06
Emmanuel-Thomas7673010.080.20
Ramirez292,5691030.220.04

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle201,781730.310.21
Murphy8801210.320.19
Doidge6712200.370.06
Magennis7580210.240.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.