Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hibernian 1–0 Aberdeen

Wednesday 22 December 2021, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 0–0 · Attendance 14,314

Hibernian Porteous 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianAberdeen
Goals10
xG0.410.70
Expected Points0.971.58

Hibernian 17%Draw 45%Aberdeen 38%

Most likely score 0–0, 31%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%13%13%3%2%2%31%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTGogic on for Doyle-Hayes, 34'Murphy on for Allan, 59'Doidge on for Nisbet, 83'Ramsay on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 46'Jenks on for Campbell, 68'McLennan on for Watkins, 77'Porteous 64'Aberdeen 0.70Hibernian 0.4100.250.50.750153045607590HTGogic on for Doyle-Hayes, 34'Murphy on for Allan, 59'Doidge on for Nisbet, 83'Ramsay on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 46'Jenks on for Campbell, 68'McLennan on for Watkins, 77'Porteous 64'0.700.41HibernianAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianAberdeen

0.41 −0.95xG0.70 −0.44
0.46 −0.79xG on target0.86 −0.35
6 −6Shots10 −3
3 −0.8Shots on target2 −2.8
1 −0.5Big chances2 +0.8
15 −5Touches in the opposition box13 −6
48% −6Possession52% −5
427 +24Passes453 −8
82% +8Pass accuracy81% +4
37% −19Field tilt63% +6
33 −8Final-third entries43 +4
6 −6.1Box entries8 −1.7
14.4 +2Passes per defensive action17.4 +3
4 −1.7Corners5 0.0
12 −3Tackles12 +1
7 −1.9Interceptions9 +0.8
11 −5Clearances18 0
2 −0.6Saves2 +0.8
15 +3Fouls13 0
4 +1.7Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Nisbet 30', 0.17 xGBoyle 30', 0.06 xGNisbet 71', 0.03 xGDoig 81', 0.02 xGBoyle 54', 0.01 xGPorteous 64', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%0.33 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal15%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Watkins 38', 0.31 xGWatkins 74', 0.25 xGEmmanuel-Thomas 15', 0.04 xGOjo 23', 0.02 xGHayes 72', 0.02 xGRamsay 73', 0.02 xGOjo 80', 0.02 xGCampbell 25', 0.01 xGFerguson 27', 0.01 xGFerguson 78', 0.01 xG43%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.30 xG, 0 goals36%0.25 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.25 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals13%0.09 xGFurther out: 6 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianAberdeen

0.25 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.69 9 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
64 min (70%) · Hibernian 0.35, Aberdeen 0.39 xG
Hibernian ahead
28 min (30%) · Hibernian 0.06, Aberdeen 0.31 xG

Line-ups

16542722323231015MaceyMcGinnPorteousHanlonCaddenDoyle-HayesCampbellDoigAllanBoyleNisbetGoalYellow card34'59'83'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Shaun Maloney116527171924111479LewisOjoGallagherBatesHayesFergusonCampbellHedgesEmmanuel-ThomasWatkinsRamirezYellow cardYellow card68'46'77'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Stephen Glass

Hibernian substitutes

  • 34' Gogic for Doyle-Hayes · yellow card 38'
  • 59' Murphy for Allan
  • 83' Doidge for Nisbet

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Ramsay for Emmanuel-Thomas
  • 68' Jenks for Campbell
  • 77' McLennan for Watkins

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0110
McGinnCB900.000.0210.12110
PorteousCB9010.110.0100.09104
HanlonCB900.000.0100.0979
CaddenRWB900.000.0300.0471
Doyle-HayesCM340.000.0400.0313
CampbellCM900.000.010−0.0403
DoigLWB900.020.0410.0235
AllanAM590.000.0110.0011
BoyleST9010.070.1810.0142
Nisbet ST830.200.0000.0012
Gogic DF560.000.000−0.0102
MurphyMF310.000.0000.0012
DoidgeFW70.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0220
OjoRB900.040.0100.0146
GallagherCB900.000.0200.0447
BatesCB900.000.0110.0628
HayesLB900.020.1300.27172
Ferguson DM900.020.0500.14124
CampbellDM680.010.0410.0452
Hedges RW900.000.0730.1254
Emmanuel-ThomasAM460.040.1710.0011
WatkinsLW770.560.010−0.0411
RamirezST900.000.1910.1421
RamsayDF440.020.0000.0133
JenksFW220.000.001−0.0100
McLennanMF130.000.0100.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Porteous and Doig: 3 passesMcGinn and Nisbet: 3 passesCadden and Campbell: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Campbell: 3 passesHanlon and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesCadden and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesCadden and Allan: 4 passesMacey and McGinn: 5 passesCadden and Nisbet: 5 passesPorteous and Cadden: 6 passesPorteous and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesPorteous and Campbell: 7 passesCadden and Boyle: 7 passesHanlon and Campbell: 10 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 11 passesHanlon and Doig: 11 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 13 passesMcGinn and Doyle-Hayes: 14 passesPorteous and McGinn: 16 passesMacey: 4 completed passesPorteous: 29 completed passesHanlon: 21 completed passesMcGinn: 28 completed passesCadden: 24 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 17 completed passesCampbell: 15 completed passesDoig: 9 completed passesAllan: 3 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesNisbet: 6 completed passes15462722323231015MaceyPorteousHanlonMcGinnCaddenDoyle-HayesCampbellDoigAllanBoyleNisbetStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Ojo and Bates: 3 passesOjo and Gallagher: 3 passesHayes and Ramirez: 3 passesCampbell and Watkins: 3 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Watkins: 3 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Ramirez: 3 passesBates and Hayes: 4 passesCampbell and Hedges: 4 passesHedges and Ramirez: 4 passesBates and Ferguson: 5 passesGallagher and Campbell: 5 passesHayes and Ferguson: 5 passesFerguson and Hedges: 5 passesFerguson and Emmanuel-Thomas: 5 passesCampbell and Emmanuel-Thomas: 5 passesBates and Campbell: 6 passesGallagher and Ferguson: 6 passesHayes and Hedges: 7 passesHayes and Emmanuel-Thomas: 7 passesFerguson and Campbell: 7 passesOjo and Hedges: 8 passesOjo and Ferguson: 10 passesHayes and Watkins: 10 passesHayes and Campbell: 11 passesOjo and Campbell: 13 passesOjo and Emmanuel-Thomas: 13 passesLewis: 5 completed passesOjo: 28 completed passesBates: 12 completed passesGallagher: 9 completed passesHayes: 25 completed passesFerguson: 20 completed passesCampbell: 31 completed passesHedges: 14 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 20 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesRamirez: 8 completed passes116275171924111479LewisOjoBatesGallagherHayesFergusonCampbellHedgesEmmanuel-ThomasWatkinsRamirezStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenMcGinn20
McGinnCadden16
McGinnPorteous15
PorteousMcGinn14
PorteousHanlon13

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
HayesFerguson14
CampbellHayes11
HayesWatkins11
FergusonHayes11
OjoHedges10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

0−4.77+2.26+0.63−2.15−1.89+2.15−0.65−3.36−0.18+2.310+4.66+2.411+4.04−0.93−2.54+0.41−1.22−1.61−2.91−1.21−0.60−1.01−0.21−1.44+2.90−0.110.00−0.20−0.95−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Aberdeen

5+0.110−1.93−2.28+2.85−2.26+0.62−2.94−2.76+0.56+1.43−0.14−2.26+0.33−0.44+0.92−0.25+2.34−1.00−2.13+2.10−1.11−0.43+0.70−0.50−0.14+3.40−0.20−0.63−3.05−3.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.040.030.020.010.010.040.010.010.020.02−0.010.01−0.02−0.01−0.030.020.070.050.07LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.030.030.040.020.060.120.060.040.030.01−0.050.030.140.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackHibernian1.21 → 1.19Aberdeen1.14 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.00 → 0.99Aberdeen0.98 → 0.96

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six80%88%+8
Aberdeen
Top six83%77%−6

From the forecast before the match (22 December 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianAberdeen
Expected goals1.160.95
Win40%29%
Expected Points1.501.19
Clean sheet38%31%

Hibernian 40%Draw 31%Aberdeen 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%2%6%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%1%13%11%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 December 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawAberdeen win
Hibernian
Top six80%88%78%69%
Aberdeen
Top six83%77%84%91%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W1–014 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.14–0.62
  2. D1–111 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.06–0.60
  3. L0–18 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.95–1.23
  4. D1–14 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.89–1.32
  5. L0–11 DecRangers (H)xG 0.22–1.78
  6. W2–127 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.27–0.12

Aberdeen

  1. W1–011 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.77–0.21
  2. W4–14 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 4.40–0.95
  3. W2–01 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.18–0.08
  4. L1–228 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.85–2.31
  5. L0–120 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.69–0.58
  6. L0–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 0.94–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianAberdeen
Position7th6th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠5–⁠77–⁠3–⁠8
Points23 (1.28 per game)24 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.601.41
Goals20–⁠2123–⁠22
xG per game1.36–⁠1.001.14–⁠0.95
Home: points, xG per game1.56, 1.31–⁠1.051.78, 1.40–⁠0.69
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.41–⁠0.950.89, 0.88–⁠1.21
ManagerShaun Maloney (0)Stephen Glass (23)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackHibernian1.21, 3rdAberdeen1.14, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.00, 4thAberdeen0.98, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.21Aberdeen attack: 1.141.211.14AberdeenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.00Aberdeen defence: 0.981.000.98

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+12%−16%−6%−39%
Counter-attacks+87%+69%−46%+10%
Set pieces−35%−23%+19%average
Penalties+106%−59%−59%+23%
Headers−17%+5%+14%−14%
Left side−2%−13%−16%−18%
Centre+2%−5%−5%−38%
Right side+8%−33%+19%−10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side−2%−10%Centre+2%−38%Right side+8%−18%Open play+12%−39%Counter-attacks+87%+10%Set pieces−35%averageHeaders−17%−14%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−16%−33%Centre−5%−5%Right side+19%−13%Open play−6%−16%Counter-attacks−46%+69%Set pieces+19%−23%Headers+14%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianAberdeen

1.36xG1.14
1.00xG against0.95
54%Possession57%
12.2Shots13.2
10.1Shots against8.7
3.8Shots on target4.8
1.5Big chances1.2
19.7Touches in the opposition box18.7
403Passes461
74%Pass accuracy77%
5.7Corners5.0
56%Field tilt57%
40.9Final-third entries39.0
12.1Box entries9.7
12.6Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.320.89
Ahead211.191.01
Behind231.601.19

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.911.03
Ahead221.270.88
Behind211.520.86

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.101–4
16–300.160.183–4
31–450.210.155–3
46–600.240.145–3
61–750.310.183–2
76–900.270.243–5

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.123–2
16–300.190.105–3
31–450.180.183–4
46–600.140.214–7
61–750.280.105–2
76–900.150.243–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMacey 18McGinn 11Cadden 6Doig 1Porteous 15Wood 1Hanlon 15McGregor 5Doig 11Stevenson 4Nisbet 1Doyle-Hayes 14Cadden 2Newell 14Gogic 3Magennis 3Boyle 9McGinn 5Cadden 3Campbell 7Magennis 4Allan 3Murphy 8Nisbet 4Doig 2Nisbet 10Boyle 6Scott 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWLewis 16Woods 2Ramsay 9Ojo 6Gurr 3Bates 10Gallagher 6Brown 4McCrorie 13Considine 2MacKenzie 1MacKenzie 7Hayes 5Campbell 5Ferguson 14Ojo 3Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasBrown 13McGeouch 6Jenks 3Hedges 6Longstaff 3McGinn 1Ojo 5Hedges 5Ferguson 2Ramirez 13Watkins 3Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasWatkins 6Hayes 4Ramirez 34-3-3 in 5 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (5), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 October 2021Aberdeen1–0HibernianxG 0.24–0.22
12 May 2021Aberdeen0–1HibernianxG 1.28–0.44
6 February 2021Hibernian2–0AberdeenxG 2.26–0.54
6 November 2020Aberdeen2–0HibernianxG 0.88–0.67
30 August 2020Hibernian0–1AberdeenxG 0.46–1.73

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Aberdeen won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–4 and xG 0.81–0.93 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murphy8683110.350.21
Boyle171,511700.350.20
Nisbet161,353400.350.05
Magennis7580210.240.15

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watkins9821300.370.10
Ramirez171,489820.290.04
Ramsay9726040.010.28
Hedges121,045140.190.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.