Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Aberdeen 1–0 Hibernian

Saturday 23 October 2021, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 1–0 · Attendance 9,431

Aberdeen Ramirez 27'

Hibernian McGregor sent off 90+7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHibernian
Goals10
xG0.240.22
Expected Points1.171.12

Aberdeen 16%Draw 71%Hibernian 14%

Most likely score 0–0, 67%. Final score 1–0, 14%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+13%14%4%1%67%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50153045607590HTMcGregor (Hibernian), second yellow card 90+7'Hayes on for Ramsay, 31'Longstaff on for Gallagher, 43'McGinn on for Watkins, 78'Murphy on for Cadden, 46'Allan on for Gullan, 61'Wright on for Doyle-Hayes, 83'Ramirez 27'Aberdeen 0.24Hibernian 0.2200.250.50153045607590HTMcGregor (Hibernian), second yellow card 90+7'Hayes on for Ramsay, 31'Longstaff on for Gallagher, 43'McGinn on for Watkins, 78'Murphy on for Cadden, 46'Allan on for Gullan, 61'Wright on for Doyle-Hayes, 83'Ramirez 27'0.240.22AberdeenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHibernian

0.24 −0.80xG0.22 −1.31
0.36 −0.54xG on target0.00 −1.62
6 −7Shots5 −8
2 −2.4Shots on target0 −4.4
0 −1.0Big chances0 −1.6
14 −3Touches in the opposition box9 −5
44% −16Possession56% +3
330 −144Passes420 +19
62% −17Pass accuracy71% −3
50% −6Field tilt50% −4
26 −18Final-third entries40 +2
9 +0.2Box entries6 −6.8
18.6 +7Passes per defensive action11.2 −2
0 −5.7Corners4 −1.8
13 +1Tackles9 −5
9 −0.6Interceptions10 +1.1
16 −1Clearances13 −5
0 −1.1Saves1 −1.7
16 +3Fouls13 +2
2 +0.7Offsides3 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Ramirez 29', 0.06 xGFerguson 57', 0.05 xGWatkins 44', 0.04 xGHedges 12', 0.01 xGBrown 36', 0.01 xGRamirez 27', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals54%0.13 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals42%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals4%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Wright 90+1', 0.12 xGBoyle 36', 0.05 xGBoyle 13', 0.02 xGNewell 84', 0.02 xGBoyle 6', 0.01 xG55%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals36%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHibernian

0.19 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.20 4 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.01 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (27%) · Aberdeen 0.08, Hibernian 0.03 xG
Aberdeen ahead
74 min (73%) · Aberdeen 0.17, Hibernian 0.19 xG

Line-ups

1222752816191197LewisRamsayBatesGallagherMcCrorieBrownOjoFergusonHedgesRamirezWatkinsYellow cardYellow cardGoal31'43'78'Aberdeen 4-1-3-2Stephen Glass1624427112216151019MaceyMcGinnMcGregorHanlonCaddenNewellDoyle-HayesStevensonNisbetBoyleGullanYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow cardYellow card46'83'61'Hibernian 3-4-3Jack Ross

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 31' Hayes for Ramsay · yellow card 90+3'
  • 43' Longstaff for Gallagher · yellow card 45+4'
  • 78' McGinn for Watkins

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Murphy for Cadden
  • 61' Allan for Gullan
  • 83' Wright for Doyle-Hayes

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0660
RamsayRB3110.000.0610.0931
BatesCB900.000.0000.0338
GallagherCB430.000.0000.0113
McCrorie LB900.000.0000.0426
Brown DM900.010.0100.0216
OjoCM900.000.0620.0232
FergusonAM900.050.050−0.0124
HedgesCM900.010.140−0.0526
RamirezST9010.130.0410.0703
WatkinsST780.040.2010.2040
Hayes DF590.000.1100.1890
Longstaff MF470.000.0100.0123
McGinnMF120.000.0000.0010

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0110
McGinnCB900.000.0200.0875
McGregor CB900.000.0500.0918
HanlonCB900.000.0100.1065
CaddenRWB460.000.0300.1030
Newell CM900.020.0200.0034
Doyle-HayesCM830.000.0100.0203
StevensonLWB900.000.0410.1181
NisbetRW900.000.0010.0012
Boyle ST900.080.0100.0210
GullanLW610.000.000−0.0211
MurphyMF440.000.1610.2043
AllanMF290.000.0200.0321
WrightDF70.120.010−0.0400

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Lewis and Gallagher: 3 passesLewis and McCrorie: 3 passesRamsay and Brown: 3 passesGallagher and Bates: 3 passesGallagher and McCrorie: 3 passesGallagher and Hedges: 3 passesMcCrorie and Brown: 3 passesMcCrorie and Ferguson: 3 passesOjo and Watkins: 3 passesFerguson and Ramirez: 3 passesRamsay and Ferguson: 4 passesOjo and Ferguson: 4 passesMcCrorie and Ojo: 5 passesOjo and Hedges: 5 passesLewis: 3 completed passesRamsay: 8 completed passesGallagher: 10 completed passesBates: 4 completed passesMcCrorie: 12 completed passesBrown: 5 completed passesOjo: 14 completed passesFerguson: 10 completed passesHedges: 3 completed passesRamirez: 3 completed passesWatkins: 2 completed passes1225272816191197LewisRamsayGallagherBatesMcCrorieBrownOjoFergusonHedgesRamirezWatkinsStarters until 31' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Macey and Stevenson: 3 passesMcGinn and Nisbet: 3 passesCadden and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesNewell and Nisbet: 3 passesMcGregor and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesStevenson and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesStevenson and Nisbet: 4 passesMacey and McGregor: 5 passesHanlon and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Newell: 5 passesStevenson and Gullan: 6 passesMcGinn and Cadden: 7 passesMcGregor and McGinn: 8 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 8 passesStevenson and Newell: 8 passesMcGregor and Hanlon: 11 passesMcGinn and Doyle-Hayes: 14 passesMacey: 8 completed passesMcGregor: 17 completed passesMcGinn: 21 completed passesHanlon: 15 completed passesCadden: 5 completed passesStevenson: 22 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 21 completed passesNewell: 10 completed passesNisbet: 5 completed passesBoyle: 3 completed passesGullan: 4 completed passes1246427162211151019MaceyMcGregorMcGinnHanlonCaddenStevensonDoyle-HayesNewellNisbetBoyleGullanStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
FergusonOjo8
HedgesFerguson7
HayesWatkins7
HayesHedges6
McCrorieLewis5

Hibernian

FromToPasses
McGregorHanlon16
HanlonStevenson15
McGinnDoyle-Hayes15
Doyle-HayesMcGinn12
StevensonHanlon11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

7+2.16−0.211+1.05+0.45−0.48+1.17+2.88+2.79+3.413+5.06+0.84−0.13−0.48+2.67+1.14+1.02−1.64+2.03+0.39+2.83+0.31+0.31−0.22+0.90−3.10−0.400.00−0.700.01+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hibernian

2−3.04−1.08−4.92−3.75+0.112+6.310+3.17+0.86−1.22−4.19+3.82−3.13−0.65−1.28+3.79+4.44+1.30−2.00−3.15+1.61−1.31−0.40−1.03+2.23+1.01−0.200.00−0.90−0.22+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.040.010.010.020.010.040.010.010.050.010.020.050.030.040.04−0.030.090.07−0.100.010.150.11LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.010.010.050.080.010.010.030.040.01−0.01−0.010.020.040.060.050.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackAberdeen1.08 → 1.07Hibernian1.28 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03 → 1.01Hibernian1.01 → 0.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six40%52%+12
11th4%3%−1
Bottom1%1%0
Hibernian
Title<1%<1%0
Top six91%86%−5

From the forecast before the match (23 October 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHibernian
Expected goals1.061.07
Win34%35%
Expected Points1.331.36
Clean sheet34%35%

Aberdeen 34%Draw 31%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%2%7%3%7%7%4%1%2%3%1%13%12%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 October 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHibernian win
Aberdeen
Top six40%52%38%30%
11th4%3%5%5%
Bottom1%1%1%2%
Hibernian
Title<1%<1%<1%1%
Top six91%86%91%96%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L1–216 OctDundee FC (A)xG 0.96–0.56
  2. L1–23 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.65
  3. L2–326 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.11–1.50
  4. L0–118 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.55–0.31
  5. L0–211 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.56–0.92
  6. D1–129 AugRoss County (H)xG 2.94–1.15

Hibernian

  1. L0–316 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.41–0.73
  2. L1–23 OctRangers (A)xG 0.23–1.68
  3. W1–026 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.90–0.22
  4. D2–218 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.10–0.82
  5. D0–012 SepHearts (A)xG 1.09–1.23
  6. W2–028 AugLivingston (H)xG 1.05–0.63

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHibernian
Position9th5th
Played99
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠54–⁠3–⁠2
Points8 (0.89 per game)15 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.311.81
Goals10–⁠1314–⁠11
xG per game1.04–⁠1.001.53–⁠0.89
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.18–⁠0.892.00, 1.42–⁠0.58
Away: points, xG per game0.80, 0.92–⁠1.091.25, 1.67–⁠1.28
ManagerStephen Glass (14)Jack Ross (47)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackAberdeen1.08, 5thHibernian1.28, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03, 4thHibernian1.01, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.08Hibernian attack: 1.281.281.08HibernianAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.03Hibernian defence: 1.011.031.01

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−17%+16%−30%
Counter-attacks−49%−27%+60%+72%
Set pieces+23%−22%−32%−9%
Penalties−100%−20%+220%−100%
Headers+15%−2%−38%+25%
Left side−29%−9%+10%−15%
Centre−14%−23%+3%−17%
Right side+29%−19%+4%−32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−29%−32%Centre−14%−17%Right side+29%−15%Open play−16%−30%Counter-attacks−49%+72%Set pieces+23%−9%Headers+15%+25%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+10%−19%Centre+3%−23%Right side+4%−9%Open play+16%−17%Counter-attacks+60%−27%Set pieces−32%−22%Headers−38%−2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHibernian

1.04xG1.53
1.00xG against0.89
60%Possession53%
13.2Shots13.4
8.4Shots against10.9
4.4Shots on target4.4
1.0Big chances1.6
17.0Touches in the opposition box14.0
474Passes401
79%Pass accuracy74%
5.7Corners5.8
56%Field tilt55%
43.9Final-third entries37.8
8.8Box entries12.8
11.9Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.771.21
Ahead100.550.80
Behind311.630.71

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.530.93
Ahead291.110.97
Behind152.330.61

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.150–2
16–300.230.082–1
31–450.130.181–2
46–600.170.223–4
61–750.190.162–2
76–900.200.212–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.121–2
16–300.190.083–1
31–450.210.102–2
46–600.300.174–2
61–750.440.233–1
76–900.270.191–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWLewis 7Woods 2Ramsay 8Gurr 1Gallagher 5Bates 4McCrorie 7Considine 2MacKenzie 7Hayes 1Campbell 1Longstaff 3Ramirez 1Hayes 1Brown 8Jenks 3Ferguson 7McGinn 1Ojo 5Hedges 3Ferguson 1Ramirez 7Emmanuel-Tho… 2Emmanuel-ThomasHayes 4Samuels 3Watkins 14-3-3 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMacey 9McGinn 7Cadden 2Porteous 8Wood 1Hanlon 7McGregor 2Doig 7Nisbet 1Stevenson 1Doyle-Hayes 6Cadden 1Newell 6Magennis 3Gogic 2Boyle 6Cadden 2McGinn 1Magennis 4Allan 3Newell 1Murphy 5Nisbet 1Boyle 1Nisbet 5Boyle 2Scott 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2021Aberdeen0–1HibernianxG 1.28–0.44
6 February 2021Hibernian2–0AberdeenxG 2.26–0.54
6 November 2020Aberdeen2–0HibernianxG 0.88–0.67
30 August 2020Hibernian0–1AberdeenxG 0.46–1.73

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 2, Hibernian won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–3 and xG 1.11–0.96 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ramirez8713410.280.05
Ramsay8695030.010.28
Ferguson8711110.110.09
Brown8748100.140.03

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle9791600.510.21
Magennis7580210.240.15
Nisbet7609200.320.04
Newell7630010.030.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.