Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 2–0 Hibernian

Friday 6 November 2020, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 14 · Half-time 2–0

Aberdeen Wright 5', Cosgrove 12'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHibernian
Goals20
xG0.880.67
Expected Points1.501.10

Aberdeen 37%Draw 40%Hibernian 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 20%. Final score 2–0, 8%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+4%4%8%7%2%1%1%17%15%19%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMain on for Cosgrove, 71'Leigh on for Kennedy, 78'Logan on for McLennan, 85'Mallan on for Newell, 61'Wright on for Murphy, 67'Gullan on for Nisbet, 77'Wright 5'Cosgrove 12'Aberdeen 0.88Hibernian 0.6700.250.50.7510153045607590HTMain on for Cosgrove, 71'Leigh on for Kennedy, 78'Logan on for McLennan, 85'Mallan on for Newell, 61'Wright on for Murphy, 67'Gullan on for Nisbet, 77'Wright 5'Cosgrove 12'0.880.67AberdeenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHibernian

0.88 −0.63xG0.67 −0.90
1.53 −0.11xG on target0.45 −1.09
7 −5Shots6 −7
2 −2.5Shots on target2 −2.0
2 +0.1Big chances1 −0.9
10 −15Touches in the opposition box24 0
39% −13Possession61% +14
338 −87Passes520 +154
71% −3Pass accuracy75% +5
34% −20Field tilt66% +27
24 −13Final-third entries54 +18
4 −6Box entries12 +1
12.4 −1Passes per defensive action10.7 −5
3 −2.0Corners4 −1.3
15 +3Tackles17 +3
19 +9.2Interceptions4 −4.9
36 +18Clearances9 −13
2 +0.5Saves0 −2.7
23 +9Fouls11 −2
3 +2.1Offsides1 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Cosgrove 58', 0.06 xGWright 80', 0.05 xGHedges 63', 0.04 xGMcLennan 46', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 52', 0.03 xGCosgrove 12', 0.38 xG, goalWright 5', 0.29 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.67 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.67 xG, 2 goals11%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals9%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 90+5', 0.39 xGMurphy 35', 0.08 xGPorteous 73', 0.08 xGMurphy 34', 0.06 xGDoidge 60', 0.04 xGGullan 90+1', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals96%0.64 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.64 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHibernian

0.79 5 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.56 4 shots, 0 goals
0.09 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.11 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Aberdeen 0.29, Hibernian 0.00 xG
Aberdeen ahead
90 min (95%) · Aberdeen 0.59, Hibernian 0.67 xG

Line-ups

1314418194033112516LewisHobanTaylorConsidineMcLennanFergusonMcCrorieKennedyHedgesWrightCosgroveGoalGoal85'78'71'Aberdeen 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes16542510131118915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleGogicNewellMurphyDoidgeNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow card61'67'77'Hibernian 4-4-2Jack Ross

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 71' Main for Cosgrove
  • 78' Leigh for Kennedy
  • 85' Logan for McLennan

Hibernian substitutes

  • 61' Mallan for Newell
  • 67' Wright for Murphy
  • 77' Gullan for Nisbet

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0672
HobanCB900.000.0000.0339
TaylorCB900.000.0000.00011
ConsidineCB900.000.0000.0317
McLennanRWB850.030.0100.0666
FergusonCM9020.000.0720.0638
McCrorieCM900.030.0300.0539
KennedyLWB780.000.0100.0326
HedgesAM900.040.010−0.0214
WrightAM9010.340.0300.0223
CosgroveST7110.440.0820.0740
MainFW190.000.000−0.0100
LeighDF120.000.0000.0015
LoganDF50.000.0000.0012

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0001
P. McGinn RB900.000.0610.14114
PorteousCB900.080.0300.12115
Hanlon CB900.000.0200.14136
Doig LB900.000.0300.11114
BoyleRM900.390.0610.0741
GogicCM900.000.0610.1243
NewellCM610.000.110−0.0141
MurphyLM670.130.0100.0053
DoidgeST900.040.010−0.0301
NisbetST770.000.010−0.0304
MallanMF290.000.2510.2341
WrightDF230.000.0100.0310
GullanFW130.030.000−0.0300

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Lewis and Hoban: 5 passesHoban and Taylor: 5 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 5 passesConsidine and Hedges: 5 passesKennedy and Ferguson: 5 passesMcCrorie and Hedges: 5 passesFerguson and Wright: 5 passesFerguson and Hedges: 5 passesHedges and Cosgrove: 5 passesLewis and Considine: 6 passesHoban and Hedges: 6 passesConsidine and Wright: 6 passesConsidine and Cosgrove: 6 passesMcLennan and Wright: 6 passesMcLennan and Cosgrove: 6 passesFerguson and Cosgrove: 6 passesKennedy and Wright: 7 passesConsidine and Kennedy: 8 passesWright and Cosgrove: 8 passesTaylor and Considine: 10 passesHoban and McLennan: 11 passesMcLennan and Ferguson: 12 passesLewis: 16 completed passesHoban: 17 completed passesTaylor: 13 completed passesConsidine: 30 completed passesMcLennan: 27 completed passesKennedy: 13 completed passesMcCrorie: 14 completed passesFerguson: 27 completed passesWright: 21 completed passesHedges: 15 completed passesCosgrove: 15 completed passes1314418334019251116LewisHobanTaylorConsidineMcLennanKennedyMcCrorieFergusonWrightHedgesCosgroveStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Hibernian

Porteous and Doig: 5 passesPorteous and Murphy: 5 passesBoyle and Gogic: 5 passesMurphy and Doidge: 5 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 6 passesBoyle and Newell: 6 passesNewell and Murphy: 6 passesMarciano and Porteous: 7 passesP. McGinn and Hanlon: 7 passesDoig and Doidge: 7 passesHanlon and Gogic: 8 passesDoig and Murphy: 8 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 10 passesPorteous and Gogic: 10 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 11 passesP. McGinn and Gogic: 11 passesHanlon and Murphy: 11 passesHanlon and Newell: 13 passesPorteous and Newell: 18 passesHanlon and Doig: 18 passesDoig and Newell: 19 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 22 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 25 passesMarciano: 13 completed passesP. McGinn: 33 completed passesPorteous: 55 completed passesHanlon: 51 completed passesDoig: 34 completed passesBoyle: 14 completed passesGogic: 23 completed passesNewell: 39 completed passesMurphy: 19 completed passesDoidge: 11 completed passesNisbet: 7 completed passes16542510131118915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleGogicNewellMurphyDoidgeNisbetStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
FergusonMcLennan8
McLennanFerguson8
ConsidineKennedy7
HobanMcLennan7
ConsidineCosgrove6

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousHanlon23
PorteousP. McGinn21
HanlonDoig18
HanlonPorteous14
NewellPorteous13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

10+5.28+3.020+9.218+12.050.08+0.611+5.54−2.313+6.67−0.410+5.413+8.61−2.78+3.07−0.66+1.93−0.54+1.63−1.47+3.01−0.92+0.41−0.22−0.40−3.92+1.62+1.60−0.62+1.10−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Hibernian

2−3.32−3.111+4.04−2.713+6.83−4.48−0.92−4.48+1.04−1.56+0.55+0.45−1.32−2.52−1.88+5.42+0.72−1.66+2.83+2.04+2.82+1.20−1.22+0.60−0.82+1.50−1.30−0.50−1.08−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.020.010.030.010.010.010.030.020.010.010.010.040.060.01−0.01−0.010.01−0.010.01−0.160.110.17LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.040.030.030.020.020.060.040.070.050.100.020.030.020.120.04−0.01−0.040.01−0.04−0.01−0.020.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackAberdeen1.31 → 1.29Hibernian1.24 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03 → 0.98Hibernian1.15 → 1.12

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six99%>99%+1
Hibernian
Top six97%96%−1

From the forecast before the match (6 November 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHibernian
Expected goals1.301.10
Win40%31%
Expected Points1.501.21
Clean sheet33%27%

Aberdeen 40%Draw 29%Hibernian 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Hibernian goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+10%9%6%2%7%3%8%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 November 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHibernian win
Aberdeen
Top six99%>99%99%98%
Hibernian
Top six97%96%98%99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. D3–325 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.76–2.04
  2. W4–220 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.66–1.65
  3. D0–017 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.21–0.48
  4. W2–12 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.92–0.48
  5. W3–027 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.26–0.46
  6. L0–320 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.75

Hibernian

  1. W1–024 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.50–0.97
  2. D0–017 OctRoss County (A)xG 2.70–0.63
  3. W3–22 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.97–1.80
  4. L0–327 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.60–1.94
  5. D2–220 SepRangers (H)xG 0.60–3.01
  6. W3–012 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.09–1.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHibernian
Position4th3rd
Played1112
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠2–⁠27–⁠3–⁠2
Points23 (2.09 per game)24 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.671.57
Goals17–⁠1117–⁠10
xG per game1.51–⁠1.011.57–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game1.86, 1.44–⁠1.331.60, 1.33–⁠1.63
Away: points, xG per game2.50, 1.62–⁠0.462.29, 1.74–⁠1.08
ManagerDerek McInnes (11)Jack Ross (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackAberdeen1.31, 3rdHibernian1.24, 4thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.03, 3rdHibernian1.15, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovAberdeen attack: 1.31Hibernian attack: 1.241.311.24HibernianAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovAberdeen defence: 1.03Hibernian defence: 1.151.151.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−31%+20%−16%
Counter-attacks−80%−2%−66%−84%
Set pieces−25%−41%+12%+3%
Penalties+150%+25%+15%+53%
Headers−8%−41%+51%−7%
Left side−26%−33%+5%+2%
Centre−18%−37%+29%−37%
Right side+23%−28%average+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−26%+18%Centre−18%−37%Right side+23%+2%Open play+1%−16%Counter-attacks−80%−84%Set pieces−25%+3%Headers−8%−7%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+5%−28%Centre+29%−37%Right sideaverage−33%Open play+20%−31%Counter-attacks−66%−2%Set pieces+12%−41%Headers+51%−41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHibernian

1.51xG1.57
1.01xG against1.31
52%Possession47%
12.3Shots12.8
10.0Shots against13.4
4.5Shots on target4.0
1.9Big chances1.9
25.2Touches in the opposition box23.8
425Passes366
74%Pass accuracy70%
5.0Corners5.3
55%Field tilt39%
37.4Final-third entries36.0
10.3Box entries11.4
13.7Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.700.80
Ahead291.571.40
Behind170.900.89

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.761.11
Ahead341.611.48
Behind120.721.56

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.151–2
16–300.120.133–2
31–450.300.134–1
46–600.210.143–2
61–750.250.252–2
76–900.340.224–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.152–1
16–300.230.105–0
31–450.270.354–4
46–600.090.281–2
61–750.370.183–1
76–900.300.242–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 11Hoban 8McCrorie 3Hayes 1Taylor 9McKenna 4Considine 8Hedges 3Kennedy 2Hernández 2Ferguson 8Watkins 1Wright 1McCrorie 5McGeouch 2Ojo 2Hayes 10Considine 1Wright 5Ferguson 2Watkins 1Watkins 7Edmondson 2Anderson 1Hedges 4Wright 3McGinn 33-4-1-2 in 5 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 12P. McGinn 11Boyle 1Porteous 12Hanlon 12Doig 6Stevenson 3Gogic 2Boyle 9P. McGinn 1Newell 1Gogic 8Wright 2Boyle 1Newell 11Magennis 1Horgan 4Doig 3Murphy 2Nisbet 10Boyle 1Wright 1Doidge 114-4-2 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 August 2020Hibernian0–1AberdeenxG 0.46–1.73

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 1, Hibernian won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–0 and xG 1.73–0.46 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson11990800.490.05
Watkins9732210.330.07
Hedges9802220.200.17
Wright9693110.180.14

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet10873710.700.07
Doidge111,003310.370.10
Boyle121,077330.200.14
Newell12971120.040.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.