Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 0–1 Aberdeen

Sunday 30 August 2020, 16:30 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 6 · Half-time 0–1

Aberdeen Ferguson 39' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianAberdeen
Goals01
xG0.461.73
Non-penalty xG0.460.95
Expected Points0.362.45

Hibernian 5%Draw 19%Aberdeen 75%

Most likely score 0–2, 23%. Final score 0–1, 22%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+5%9%2%2%12%11%5%1%2%3%1%22%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMurphy on for Allan, 54'Mallan on for Doig, 64'Gullan on for Hallberg, 72'McGeouch on for Wright, 67'Main on for Watkins, 74'McGinn on for Hedges, 77'Ferguson 39' (pen)Aberdeen 1.73Hibernian 0.4600.511.520153045607590HTMurphy on for Allan, 54'Mallan on for Doig, 64'Gullan on for Hallberg, 72'McGeouch on for Wright, 67'Main on for Watkins, 74'McGinn on for Hedges, 77'Ferguson 39' (pen)1.730.46HibernianAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianAberdeen

0.46 −1.32xG1.73 +0.87
0.46Non-penalty xG0.95
0.12 −1.77xG on target2.55 +1.45
8 −3.8Shots14 +8.3
2 −1.8Shots on target7 +4.3
0 −2.2Big chances2 +0.7
53% +6Possession47% +1
428 +98Passes382 −21
74% +8Pass accuracy73% +1
40% −1Field tilt60% +23
41 +13Final-third entries36 +10
10 −0.8Box entries8 +1.0
14.4 0Passes per defensive action15.3 +1
6 +1.6Corners4 +2.7
22 +7Tackles10 −3
9 0.0Interceptions12 +4.3
14 −14Clearances20 +4
6 +4.6Saves2 +0.7
11 −1Fouls18 +4
5 +3.8Offsides1 +0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Boyle 16', 0.08 xGDoidge 88', 0.07 xGDoidge 26', 0.06 xGPorteous 50', 0.06 xGHallberg 55', 0.06 xGDoidge 90', 0.06 xGMurphy 90+2', 0.05 xGDoig 10', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals65%0.30 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals17%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals13%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Hedges 17', 0.42 xGWatkins 33', 0.08 xGMcCrorie 44', 0.07 xGWatkins 32', 0.06 xGWatkins 27', 0.04 xGMcKenna 57', 0.04 xGMain 83', 0.04 xGHedges 17', 0.03 xGWatkins 36', 0.03 xGFerguson 37', 0.03 xGKennedy 46', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 59', 0.03 xGMcGeouch 87', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals63%0.60 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals28%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianAberdeen

0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.83 11 shots, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.25 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
39 min (42%) · Hibernian 0.16, Aberdeen 1.49 xG
Aberdeen ahead
53 min (58%) · Hibernian 0.29, Aberdeen 0.25 xG

Line-ups

1654102011252389MarcianoMcGinnPorteousHanlonBoyleHallbergNewellDoigAllanWrightDoidge72'64'54'Hibernian 3-4-1-2Jack Ross135433194017501125LewisHobanMcKennaConsidineKennedyFergusonMcCrorieHayesWatkinsHedgesWrightGoalYellow card74'77'67'Aberdeen 3-4-3Derek McInnes

Hibernian substitutes

  • 54' Murphy for Allan
  • 64' Mallan for Doig
  • 72' Gullan for Hallberg

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 67' McGeouch for Wright
  • 74' Main for Watkins
  • 77' McGinn for Hedges

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0310
McGinnCB900.000.0300.12155
PorteousCB900.060.0100.07511
HanlonCB900.000.0100.1098
BoyleRWB900.080.0510.17112
HallbergCM720.060.0610.0924
NewellCM900.000.0810.0784
DoigLWB640.020.0100.0112
AllanAM540.000.040−0.0420
WrightST900.000.0510.0854
DoidgeST900.180.0410.0402
MurphyMF360.050.000−0.0204
MallanMF260.000.0410.0002
GullanFW180.000.0000.0101

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0100
HobanCB900.000.0100.03412
McKennaCB900.040.0100.0335
ConsidineCB900.000.0100.0644
KennedyRWB900.030.1920.1564
Ferguson CM9010.820.0400.0323
McCrorieCM900.100.0720.1334
HayesLWB900.000.0110.0845
WatkinsRW740.220.0110.0630
HedgesST770.450.1130.0544
WrightLW670.000.2520.0820
McGeouchMF230.030.0110.0124
MainFW160.040.000−0.0100
McGinnMF130.000.0200.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Hanlon and Doig: 4 passesHanlon and Wright: 4 passesBoyle and Hallberg: 4 passesBoyle and Allan: 4 passesNewell and Wright: 4 passesDoig and Allan: 4 passesBoyle and Wright: 5 passesHallberg and Newell: 5 passesNewell and Allan: 5 passesMarciano and McGinn: 6 passesMcGinn and Boyle: 6 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 7 passesMarciano and Porteous: 8 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 8 passesMcGinn and Newell: 8 passesNewell and Doig: 9 passesPorteous and McGinn: 10 passesPorteous and Newell: 10 passesHanlon and Newell: 10 passesMcGinn and Hallberg: 10 passesMarciano: 15 completed passesPorteous: 25 completed passesHanlon: 20 completed passesMcGinn: 27 completed passesBoyle: 12 completed passesHallberg: 17 completed passesNewell: 31 completed passesDoig: 10 completed passesAllan: 12 completed passesWright: 8 completed passesDoidge: 4 completed passes1546102011252389MarcianoPorteousHanlonMcGinnBoyleHallbergNewellDoigAllanWrightDoidgeStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

McKenna and Ferguson: 5 passesKennedy and Ferguson: 5 passesHayes and McCrorie: 5 passesFerguson and Watkins: 5 passesWatkins and Hedges: 5 passesWatkins and Wright: 5 passesHedges and Wright: 5 passesHoban and McCrorie: 6 passesConsidine and Hayes: 6 passesConsidine and McCrorie: 6 passesMcCrorie and Wright: 6 passesFerguson and Wright: 6 passesHayes and Ferguson: 7 passesMcCrorie and Watkins: 7 passesHoban and McKenna: 8 passesConsidine and Hedges: 8 passesLewis and McKenna: 9 passesMcCrorie and Hedges: 9 passesKennedy and Hedges: 10 passesMcCrorie and Ferguson: 10 passesHayes and Hedges: 12 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 13 passesFerguson and Hedges: 14 passesConsidine and McKenna: 15 passesLewis: 14 completed passesHoban: 19 completed passesConsidine: 27 completed passesMcKenna: 27 completed passesKennedy: 19 completed passesHayes: 18 completed passesMcCrorie: 28 completed passesFerguson: 38 completed passesWatkins: 12 completed passesHedges: 32 completed passesWright: 13 completed passes134533174019501125LewisHobanConsidineMcKennaKennedyHayesMcCrorieFergusonWatkinsHedgesWrightStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousHanlon17
PorteousMcGinn16
HanlonWright13
McGinnNewell12
NewellPorteous11

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
McKennaConsidine8
FergusonConsidine8
McCrorieConsidine7
ConsidineMcKenna7
HayesHedges7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

6−1.07+3.815−3.012+3.47+1.29+1.810+3.84−2.07−1.64−1.83−0.85+0.44−3.67+3.88+5.01−1.01−0.42−1.64+0.60−1.00−1.01+0.81+0.21−0.42+0.82+1.61−0.43+2.62+1.02−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Aberdeen

8+5.07+2.37−4.37+0.39+4.79+2.78+2.36−1.37+1.74−5.03−3.310+7.03−0.31−5.06−1.77+2.73+0.33+1.06−0.31−4.71−1.02+1.02+1.02+1.07+3.71+1.000.00−0.72+1.71+1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.020.020.020.010.030.030.060.020.030.030.030.010.010.04−0.010.030.010.10−0.050.050.020.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.01−0.010.020.030.010.050.060.010.020.030.070.040.020.020.040.050.020.100.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackHibernian0.97 → 0.92Aberdeen0.89 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Hibernian0.83 → 0.86Aberdeen0.77 → 0.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Title<1%<1%0
Top six95%91%−4
Aberdeen
Title<1%1%+1
Top six88%94%+6
11th1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 August 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianAberdeen
Expected goals0.970.75
Win39%27%
Expected Points1.511.15
Clean sheet47%38%

Hibernian 39%Draw 35%Aberdeen 27%

Most likely score 0–0, 19%. Both sides score 33%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+13%5%1%5%1%8%6%2%3%2%19%17%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 August 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawAberdeen win
Hibernian
Title<1%1%<1%<1%
Top six95%97%95%91%
Aberdeen
Title<1%<1%<1%1%
Top six88%84%89%94%
11th1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W1–023 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.53–0.52
  2. D0–015 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.45–0.89
  3. W1–011 AugDundee United (A)xG 0.90–0.83
  4. W4–18 AugLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.42
  5. W2–11 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.18–0.70

Aberdeen

  1. W2–123 AugLivingston (H)xG 2.15–1.62
  2. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–0.42
  3. L0–11 AugRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianAberdeen
Position2nd8th
Played53
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠1–⁠02–⁠0–⁠1
Points13 (2.60 per game)6 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.001.09
Goals8–⁠23–⁠2
xG per game1.78–⁠0.870.86–⁠1.10
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.31–⁠0.791.50, 1.15–⁠1.44
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 2.09–⁠0.923.00, 0.29–⁠0.42
ManagerJack Ross (5)Derek McInnes (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackHibernian0.97, 3rdAberdeen0.89, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian0.83, 4thAberdeen0.77, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug29 AugHibernian attack: 0.97Aberdeen attack: 0.890.970.89AberdeenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug29 AugHibernian defence: 0.83Aberdeen defence: 0.770.830.77

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+19%−45%−16%+5%
Counter-attacks−57%−57%−50%−50%
Set pieces+33%+1%−42%−17%
Penalties+130%+23%+57%−50%
Headers+29%−10%−12%−30%
Left side+4%−21%−42%−3%
Centre+35%−57%−21%+10%
Right side+6%average−14%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side+4%−30%Centre+35%+10%Right side+6%−3%Open play+19%+5%Counter-attacks−57%−50%Set pieces+33%−17%Headers+29%−30%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side−42%averageCentre−21%−57%Right side−14%−21%Open play−16%−45%Counter-attacks−50%−57%Set pieces−42%+1%Headers−12%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianAberdeen

1.78xG0.86
0.87xG against1.10
47%Possession46%
11.8Shots5.7
12.2Shots against12.0
3.8Shots on target2.7
2.2Big chances1.3
330Passes403
65%Pass accuracy72%
4.4Corners1.3
41%Field tilt37%
28.4Final-third entries26.3
10.8Box entries7.0
14.5Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level551.660.69
Ahead351.951.17
Behind0––

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.720.64
Ahead162.312.66
Behind230.160.99

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.141–0
16–300.230.091–0
31–450.470.083–1
46–600.070.280–1
61–750.330.061–0
76–900.410.232–0

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.060–0
16–300.040.170–1
31–450.020.100–0
46–600.380.162–0
61–750.350.330–1
76–900.030.281–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 5McGinn 5Porteous 5Hanlon 5Doig 4Allan 1Boyle 4Wright 1Gogic 5Newell 5Horgan 4Doig 1Doidge 4Boyle 1Allan 1Nisbet 44-4-2 in 4 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLewis 3McCrorie 2Hernández 1Taylor 3McKenna 2Hoban 1Hayes 1Logan 1Hernández 1Ferguson 2Kennedy 1Ojo 2Bryson 1Wright 1Hedges 1Campbell 1Hayes 2Considine 1Wright 1McGinn 1Anderson 1Kennedy 1Ferguson 1Watkins 13-5-2 in 1 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle5450200.290.14
Gogic5450000.040.02
Hanlon5450000.030.01
McGinn5450000.000.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.