Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Mirren v Hibernian

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · The Marbill Coaches Stadium · Round 11

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals1.201.28
Win34%38%
Expected Points1.311.41
Clean sheet28%30%

St. Mirren 34%Draw 28%Hibernian 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  2. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  3. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  4. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  5. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41
  6. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position7th10th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠1–⁠42–⁠1–⁠5
Points10 (1.25 per game)7 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.33
Goals8–⁠148–⁠12
xG per game1.47–⁠1.911.58–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.86–⁠2.100.25, 1.56–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.09–⁠1.721.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerCraig McLeish (17)Marink Reedijk (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.10, 11thHibernian1.32, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.44, 7thHibernian1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren attack: 1.10Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.10HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Mirren defence: 1.44Hibernian defence: 1.271.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+1%−15%+6%
Counter-attacks+85%+43%−13%−1%
Set pieces−33%+1%+8%−6%
Penalties+20%+140%+80%+20%
Headers−50%−14%−35%+7%
Left side−13%+3%−11%−2%
Centre−7%−34%−25%+24%
Right side−11%+73%+20%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−13%−26%Centre−7%+24%Right side−11%−2%Open play−21%+6%Counter-attacks+85%−1%Set pieces−33%−6%Headers−50%+7%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−11%+73%Centre−25%−34%Right side+20%+3%Open play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−13%+43%Set pieces+8%+1%Headers−35%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.47xG1.58
1.91xG against1.65
48%Possession51%
13.5Shots16.4
15.2Shots against13.4
3.5Shots on target4.4
2.2Big chances2.0
26.0Touches in the opposition box31.6
436Passes443
80%Pass accuracy81%
4.2Corners6.9
47%Field tilt55%
39.2Final-third entries44.7
14.2Box entries15.0
14.0Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.702.25
Ahead321.401.23
Behind271.312.33

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.412–3
16–300.200.231–2
31–450.250.333–2
46–600.170.460–3
61–750.380.201–1
76–900.380.291–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 8Ramsay 6Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 7Jackson 1Fraser 1Fieldson 7John 7Sule 1Carr 8Nsio 5Taylor 2Phillips 1Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Mochrie 1Taylor 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Mochrie 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 February 2026Hibernian2–0St. MirrenxG 1.19–0.30
8 November 2025St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 0.78–1.62
31 August 2025Hibernian1–1St. MirrenxG 2.42–0.85
14 May 2025St. Mirren2–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.34
16 February 2025St. Mirren0–0HibernianxG 0.70–0.37
9 November 2024Hibernian1–2St. MirrenxG 2.28–2.18

21 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 6, Hibernian won 9, and 6 were drawn. Goals 23–29 and xG 1.03–1.29 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabia6460000.100.15
Ramsay6475000.140.11
Mochrie7474000.070.11
John7630100.070.10

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.