Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Celtic

Sunday 25 October 2026, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 10

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals1.001.81
Win20%56%
Expected Points0.851.91
Clean sheet16%37%

Hibernian 20%Draw 24%Celtic 56%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%5%6%3%1%3%5%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

Celtic

  1. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  2. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  4. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  5. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  6. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position10th1st
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠57–⁠0–⁠1
Points7 (0.88 per game)21 (2.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.332.25
Goals8–⁠1216–⁠4
xG per game1.58–⁠1.652.76–⁠1.03
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 1.56–⁠1.492.25, 2.19–⁠0.89
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.813.00, 3.33–⁠1.18
ManagerMarink Reedijk (1)Martin O'Neill (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32, 4thCeltic2.11, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 4thCeltic0.88, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Celtic attack: 2.112.111.32CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.27Celtic defence: 0.881.270.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+6%+121%−47%
Counter-attacks−13%−1%+175%−28%
Set pieces+8%−6%−21%−4%
Penalties+80%+20%−100%−40%
Headers−35%+7%+132%−24%
Left side−11%−2%+164%−64%
Centre−25%+24%+93%−6%
Right side+20%−26%+25%−48%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side−11%−48%Centre−25%−6%Right side+20%−64%Open play−15%−47%Counter-attacks−13%−28%Set pieces+8%−4%Headers−35%−24%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+164%−26%Centre+93%+24%Right side+25%−2%Open play+121%+6%Counter-attacks+175%−1%Set pieces−21%−6%Headers+132%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.58xG2.76
1.65xG against1.03
51%Possession62%
16.4Shots20.6
13.4Shots against10.9
4.4Shots on target9.1
2.0Big chances5.0
31.6Touches in the opposition box39.5
443Passes620
81%Pass accuracy88%
6.9Corners9.4
55%Field tilt68%
44.7Final-third entries62.3
15.0Box entries24.5
14.7Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.061.25
Ahead543.220.93
Behind112.161.05

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.134–0
16–300.420.241–1
31–450.550.234–1
46–600.590.075–1
61–750.340.212–1
76–900.540.150–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 7Johnstone 1Donovan 5Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 2Trusty 6Scales 3Tierney 5Scales 3McGregor 7Baur 5Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 6Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Høgh 4Durán 44-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 May 2026Hibernian1–2CelticxG 0.36–2.81
22 February 2026Celtic1–2HibernianxG 1.94–0.80
30 November 2025Hibernian1–2CelticxG 1.65–1.33
27 September 2025Celtic0–0HibernianxG 2.80–0.70
10 May 2025Celtic3–1HibernianxG 2.26–0.82
22 February 2025Hibernian2–1CelticxG 0.67–1.78

22 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Celtic won 13, and 6 were drawn. Goals 19–46 and xG 0.95–2.38 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7564430.660.23
Durán7531430.490.32
Baur5460100.300.14
Scales6536100.100.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.