Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Falkirk

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 9

Forecast

HibernianFalkirk
Expected goals1.641.01
Win51%23%
Expected Points1.800.94
Clean sheet36%19%

Hibernian 51%Draw 26%Falkirk 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Falkirk goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawFalkirk win
Hibernian
Top six52%60%47%41%
11th5%3%6%7%
Bottom3%2%4%4%
Falkirk
Top six22%16%21%34%
11th14%16%13%12%
Bottom15%18%15%9%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

Falkirk

  1. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  2. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  3. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  4. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  5. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  6. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianFalkirk
Position10th11th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠51–⁠3–⁠4
Points7 (0.88 per game)6 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.330.99
Goals8–⁠127–⁠11
xG per game1.58–⁠1.651.17–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 1.56–⁠1.490.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.810.75, 0.92–⁠2.08
ManagerMarink Reedijk (1)John McGlynn (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32, 4thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 4thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Falkirk attack: 1.181.321.18FalkirkHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.27Falkirk defence: 1.441.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+6%−2%+36%
Counter-attacks−13%−1%−86%−20%
Set pieces+8%−6%−50%+40%
Penalties+80%+20%−40%−100%
Headers−35%+7%−64%−37%
Left side−11%−2%−49%+14%
Centre−25%+24%−24%+24%
Right side+20%−26%+1%+51%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side−11%+51%Centre−25%+24%Right side+20%+14%Open play−15%+36%Counter-attacks−13%−20%Set pieces+8%+40%Headers−35%−37%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−49%−26%Centre−24%+24%Right side+1%−2%Open play−2%+6%Counter-attacks−86%−1%Set pieces−50%−6%Headers−64%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianFalkirk

1.58xG1.17
1.65xG against1.83
51%Possession48%
16.4Shots11.6
13.4Shots against15.9
4.4Shots on target3.1
2.0Big chances1.5
31.6Touches in the opposition box24.1
443Passes415
81%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners4.5
55%Field tilt49%
44.7Final-third entries38.5
15.0Box entries9.8
14.7Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.451.49
Ahead221.252.13
Behind260.652.12

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–3
16–300.090.430–2
31–450.260.362–0
46–600.130.211–1
61–750.230.342–0
76–900.280.330–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Hibernian

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DevaneySuspensionMid October 20264262
McGrathInjuryLate October 20263303
MayorInjuryLate October 20265463
MegwaInjuryLate October 20262113
ObitaInjuryLate October 20264299
BushiriInjuryMid October 202600

Falkirk

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DohertyInjuryLate October 20261203
GardnerInjuryEarly November 2026184
LaidlawInjuryMid October 2026179
AdamsInjuryDoubtful00
NesbittInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Strain 8Neilson 6Meļņiks 2Henderson 8McCann 7Tanser 1Barbrook 7McMillan 1Spencer 6Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 5Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 6Yeats 2Eames 4Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 5Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026Falkirk1–3HibernianxG 0.63–1.10
24 January 2026Falkirk4–1HibernianxG 3.64–0.73
6 December 2025Hibernian3–0FalkirkxG 2.02–0.49
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Falkirk won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 9–7 and xG 1.57–1.49 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8720030.070.17
Barbrook7591000.110.10
Ross7570100.110.10
Spencer6528000.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.