Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Hearts

Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 9

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.020.90
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.100.68
Clean sheet41%13%

Celtic 63%Draw 22%Hearts 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%7%7%3%4%3%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title73%77%69%65%
Hearts
Title1%<1%1%2%
Top six97%96%98%98%
Rangers
Title26%23%30%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  2. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  4. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  5. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  6. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st3rd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠0–⁠15–⁠1–⁠2
Points21 (2.62 per game)16 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game2.251.90
Goals16–⁠419–⁠8
xG per game2.76–⁠1.032.02–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 2.19–⁠0.893.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.00, 1.60–⁠1.66
ManagerMartin O'Neill (26)Wouter Vrancken (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.11, 1stHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stHearts1.11, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.11Hearts attack: 1.522.111.52HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Hearts defence: 1.111.110.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−47%+17%−21%
Counter-attacks+175%−28%−11%−53%
Set pieces−21%−4%+27%−8%
Penalties−100%−40%+140%−40%
Headers+132%−24%−10%−9%
Left side+164%−64%+45%−37%
Centre+93%−6%+25%+5%
Right side+25%−48%−34%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+164%−50%Centre+93%+5%Right side+25%−37%Open play+121%−21%Counter-attacks+175%−53%Set pieces−21%−8%Headers+132%−9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+45%−48%Centre+25%−6%Right side−34%−64%Open play+17%−47%Counter-attacks−11%−28%Set pieces+27%−4%Headers−10%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.76xG2.02
1.03xG against1.20
62%Possession54%
20.6Shots16.8
10.9Shots against9.5
9.1Shots on target5.4
5.0Big chances2.8
39.5Touches in the opposition box29.9
620Passes445
88%Pass accuracy79%
9.4Corners7.4
68%Field tilt59%
62.3Final-third entries38.2
24.5Box entries16.5
13.0Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.061.25
Ahead543.220.93
Behind112.161.05

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.134–0
16–300.420.241–1
31–450.550.234–1
46–600.590.075–1
61–750.340.212–1
76–900.540.150–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Celtic

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
Carter-VickersInjuryAbout 1–2 weeks6540
YangInjuryLate October 20265377
OsmandInjuryA few weeks028
JohnstonInjuryMid October 20262136

Hearts

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
SpittalInjuryLate October 20263274
RenaudInjuryMid October 2026164
HalkettInjuryMid October 202600

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 7Johnstone 1Donovan 5Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 2Trusty 6Scales 3Tierney 5Scales 3McGregor 7Baur 5Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 6Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Høgh 4Durán 44-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 May 2026Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.83–0.93
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 13, Hearts won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 42–22 and xG 2.40–0.97 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7564430.660.23
Durán7531430.490.32
Baur5460100.300.14
Scales6536100.100.15

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.