Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell 0–2 Celtic

Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00 · Fir Park · Round 8 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 10,682

Celtic Durán 9', Nygren 59'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellCeltic
Goals02
xG1.102.85
Expected Points0.412.43

Motherwell 9%Draw 16%Celtic 76%

Most likely score 1–3, 11%. Final score 0–2, 7%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+1%4%7%7%5%2%1%1%6%7%4%2%3%6%6%4%2%2%2%1%10%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSaid on for Vogt, 60'Kanga on for Houlden and Bjørgolfsson on for Levitt, 71'Maswanhise on for Lowry and Girdwood-Reich on for O'Donnell, 83'Mheuka on for Høgh and Hassan on for Durán, 73'Jota on for Tounekti, 74'Sørensen on for Nygren, 78'Lotomba on for Tierney, 82'Durán 9'Nygren 59'Celtic 2.85Motherwell 1.1001230153045607590HTSaid on for Vogt, 60'Kanga on for Houlden and Bjørgolfsson on for Levitt, 71'Maswanhise on for Lowry and Girdwood-Reich on for O'Donnell, 83'Mheuka on for Høgh and Hassan on for Durán, 73'Jota on for Tounekti, 74'Sørensen on for Nygren, 78'Lotomba on for Tierney, 82'Durán 9'Nygren 59'2.851.10MotherwellCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellCeltic

1.10 −0.46xG2.85 +0.10
0.38 −1.02xG on target3.58 +0.70
8 −7Shots25 +5
2 −2.7Shots on target15 +6.7
3 +1.0Big chances2 −3.4
20 −5Touches in the opposition box63 +27
34% −27Possession66% +5
389 −208Passes764 +165
86% −2Pass accuracy92% +5
27% −37Field tilt73% +6
35 −18Final-third entries81 +21
11 −4Box entries36 +13
33.4 +20Passes per defensive action17.9 +5
2 −3.6Corners9 −0.4
15 0Tackles14 −2
7 +0.9Interceptions9 +0.7
37 +13Clearances31 +5
12 +9.3Saves2 −1.4
3 −8Fouls4 −7
2 +0.9Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Houlden 64', 0.35 xGHoulden 65', 0.27 xGBjørgolfsson 73', 0.18 xGHoulden 63', 0.10 xGFadinger 26', 0.08 xGHodge 79', 0.08 xGHoulden 5', 0.03 xGBjørgolfsson 84', 0.02 xG56%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals27%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Sørensen 90', 0.43 xGHøgh 69', 0.21 xGHøgh 47', 0.18 xGBaur 57', 0.17 xGDurán 60', 0.17 xGHøgh 25', 0.15 xGMheuka 81', 0.12 xGHøgh 45', 0.11 xGTierney 52', 0.11 xGHøgh 11', 0.10 xGBaur 56', 0.09 xGDurán 10', 0.07 xGBaur 15', 0.07 xGBaur 39', 0.05 xGMcGregor 52', 0.05 xGDonovan 89', 0.03 xGBaur 12', 0.02 xGTounekti 21', 0.02 xGDonovan 51', 0.02 xGScales 67', 0.02 xGDonovan 19', 0.01 xGTounekti 47', 0.01 xGMcGregor 70', 0.01 xGNygren 58', 0.58 xG, goalDurán 9', 0.05 xG, goal33%0.93 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal49%1.40 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.40 xG, 0 goals14%0.39 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals2%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal2%0.07 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellCeltic

0.74 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.60 16 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.91 3 shots, 1 goal
0.35 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.34 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Motherwell 0.03, Celtic 0.05 xG
Celtic ahead
81 min (90%) · Motherwell 1.07, Celtic 2.80 xG

Line-ups

17254586377117147PaulsenSparrowO'DonnellMoormannLongeloFadingerLevittVogtLowryHodgeHouldenYellow card83'71'60'83'71'Motherwell 4-2-3-1Alfred Johansson151475634222118179SinisaloDonovanMurrayScalesTierneyMcGregorBaurDuránNygrenTounektiHøghYellow cardGoalGoal82'73'78'74'73'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill

Motherwell substitutes

  • 60' Said for Vogt
  • 71' Bjørgolfsson for Levitt
  • 71' Kanga for Houlden
  • 83' Girdwood-Reich for O'Donnell
  • 83' Maswanhise for Lowry

Celtic substitutes

  • 73' Hassan for Durán
  • 73' Mheuka for Høgh
  • 74' Jota for Tounekti
  • 78' Sørensen for Nygren
  • 82' Lotomba for Tierney · yellow card 85'

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PaulsenGK900.000.0000.0333
SparrowRB900.000.2410.1726
O'DonnellCB830.000.0000.0317
MoormannCB900.000.0110.02215
LongeloLB900.000.0400.11117
FadingerDM900.080.0400.0668
LevittDM710.000.120−0.0412
VogtRW600.000.0000.0001
LowryAM830.000.0210.0124
Hodge LW900.080.0700.0249
HouldenST710.740.000−0.0202
SaidFW300.000.6730.3953
BjørgolfssonFW190.200.0000.0110
KangaFW190.000.1210.0310
Girdwood-ReichDF70.000.0510.0931
MaswanhiseFW70.000.0000.0100

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0000.0211
DonovanRB900.060.2020.2697
MurrayCB900.000.0300.12811
ScalesCB900.020.2010.281311
Tierney LB820.110.2840.26169
McGregorDM900.070.5210.2064
BaurDM900.390.0940.0376
DuránRW7310.290.3010.2891
NygrenAM7810.580.0500.1131
TounektiLW740.030.3330.32134
HøghST7310.760.201−0.1400
HassanFW170.000.0900.2441
MheukaFW170.120.0000.0711
JotaFW160.000.2710.2120
SørensenMF120.430.0000.0100
Lotomba DF80.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Paulsen and Sparrow: 4 passesSparrow and Hodge: 4 passesLongelo and Levitt: 4 passesLongelo and Lowry: 4 passesFadinger and Lowry: 4 passesLowry and Hodge: 4 passesPaulsen and Longelo: 5 passesMoormann and Fadinger: 5 passesLongelo and Hodge: 5 passesFadinger and Hodge: 5 passesLevitt and Hodge: 5 passesSparrow and Vogt: 6 passesFadinger and Levitt: 6 passesMoormann and Longelo: 7 passesLongelo and Fadinger: 7 passesLongelo and Houlden: 7 passesLevitt and Lowry: 7 passesSparrow and Lowry: 8 passesSparrow and Levitt: 9 passesO'Donnell and Fadinger: 10 passesO'Donnell and Levitt: 11 passesSparrow and Fadinger: 13 passesPaulsen and Moormann: 18 passesPaulsen and O'Donnell: 18 passesSparrow and O'Donnell: 20 passesPaulsen: 25 completed passesSparrow: 34 completed passesMoormann: 21 completed passesO'Donnell: 34 completed passesLongelo: 22 completed passesFadinger: 29 completed passesLevitt: 25 completed passesVogt: 4 completed passesLowry: 14 completed passesHodge: 15 completed passesHoulden: 8 completed passes17524586377117147PaulsenSparrowMoormannO'DonnellLongeloFadingerLevittVogtLowryHodgeHouldenStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Celtic

Murray and Tounekti: 7 passesNygren and Høgh: 7 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 8 passesMurray and Nygren: 9 passesDonovan and Nygren: 11 passesMcGregor and Durán: 11 passesTierney and McGregor: 12 passesMcGregor and Nygren: 12 passesTierney and Baur: 13 passesDonovan and McGregor: 14 passesBaur and Tounekti: 14 passesDurán and Nygren: 17 passesBaur and McGregor: 20 passesScales and Baur: 22 passesDonovan and Durán: 23 passesScales and Tounekti: 27 passesMurray and McGregor: 27 passesDonovan and Murray: 29 passesSinisalo and Murray: 34 passesTierney and Tounekti: 36 passesSinisalo and Scales: 38 passesScales and McGregor: 44 passesScales and Murray: 47 passesScales and Tierney: 52 passesSinisalo: 48 completed passesDonovan: 45 completed passesScales: 121 completed passesMurray: 85 completed passesTierney: 67 completed passesBaur: 45 completed passesMcGregor: 78 completed passesDurán: 35 completed passesNygren: 32 completed passesTounekti: 48 completed passesHøgh: 17 completed passes151547632242118179SinisaloDonovanScalesMurrayTierneyBaurMcGregorDuránNygrenTounektiHøghStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
SparrowO'Donnell17
O'DonnellPaulsen15
PaulsenMoormann11
SparrowFadinger11
MoormannPaulsen11

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTierney31
McGregorScales31
SinisaloScales29
MurrayScales25
ScalesMurray25

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

5+2.36−3.033+16.612+5.94+0.68+2.44−1.47+0.74−1.94−0.12−2.73−2.02−1.60−3.43−1.64−1.04+1.41−1.60−2.93−0.43−0.43+1.40−1.40−2.10−3.31−0.10−0.30−0.31+0.30−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Celtic

4+0.32−3.620+8.75−0.76+2.14−1.42−5.92−3.46−1.410+4.72−3.34−1.33−1.42−3.73−2.66+1.61−0.71−1.95+1.13−3.01−2.32+0.30−2.330.07+4.910.00−1.00−0.61+0.70−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.020.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.11−0.010.040.030.020.010.020.030.03−0.03−0.020.060.21−0.050.02−0.010.34LessMore

Celtic

0.010.040.010.080.070.010.020.020.050.020.040.080.020.110.080.180.050.080.060.210.130.100.160.290.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.32 → 1.30Celtic2.08 → 2.11Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.29 → 1.32Celtic0.89 → 0.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six62%57%−5
11th3%4%+1
Bottom2%2%0
Celtic
Title67%73%+6
Rangers
Title32%27%−5

From the forecast before the match (11 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellCeltic
Expected goals1.021.80
Win21%55%
Expected Points0.861.90
Clean sheet16%36%

Motherwell 21%Draw 24%Celtic 55%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 54%.

Celtic goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+6%6%3%1%6%6%3%1%3%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawCeltic win
Motherwell
Top six62%73%62%57%
11th3%1%2%4%
Bottom2%1%2%2%
Celtic
Title67%58%62%73%
Rangers
Title32%40%37%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  2. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  3. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  4. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  5. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92
  6. D0–09 AugFalkirk (H)xG 1.27–0.55

Celtic

  1. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  2. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  3. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  4. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  5. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57
  6. W5–19 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 5.50–0.98

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellCeltic
Position9th2nd
Played77
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠36–⁠0–⁠1
Points8 (1.14 per game)18 (2.57 per game)
Expected Points per game1.392.23
Goals9–⁠1114–⁠4
xG per game1.56–⁠1.732.75–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.50–⁠0.542.25, 2.19–⁠0.89
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.61–⁠2.633.00, 3.50–⁠1.21
ManagerAlfred Johansson (7)Martin O'Neill (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.32, 4thCeltic2.08, 1stDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.29, 5thCeltic0.89, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.32Celtic attack: 2.082.081.32CelticMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.29Celtic defence: 0.891.290.89

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+9%−10%+126%−51%
Counter-attacks+2%+41%+150%−16%
Set pieces−49%−1%−25%−6%
Penalties+38%+108%−100%−31%
Headers−54%−18%+137%−32%
Left side−28%−28%+154%−65%
Centre−39%+20%+103%−11%
Right side+74%−10%+16%−47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side−28%−47%Centre−39%−11%Right side+74%−65%Open play+9%−51%Counter-attacks+2%−16%Set pieces−49%−6%Headers−54%−32%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+154%−10%Centre+103%+20%Right side+16%−28%Open play+126%−10%Counter-attacks+150%+41%Set pieces−25%−1%Headers+137%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellCeltic

1.56xG2.75
1.73xG against1.02
61%Possession61%
14.9Shots20.0
15.1Shots against11.3
4.7Shots on target8.3
2.0Big chances5.4
25.3Touches in the opposition box36.1
597Passes599
88%Pass accuracy87%
5.6Corners9.4
64%Field tilt67%
53.2Final-third entries59.6
14.6Box entries22.9
13.1Passes per defensive action12.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.641.40
Ahead192.361.40
Behind351.042.28

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.141.29
Ahead503.240.86
Behind122.161.05

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.360.171–1
16–300.310.362–1
31–450.310.262–5
46–600.160.330–2
61–750.190.262–0
76–900.230.362–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.143–0
16–300.450.261–1
31–450.600.274–1
46–600.470.084–1
61–750.360.112–1
76–900.540.160–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Motherwell

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
WilliamsInjuryLate October 20261151
KoutroumbisInjuryMid October 2026026
PriestmanInjuryMid October 20262172
HendryInjuryMid October 202600
McGinnInjuryMid October 202600

Celtic

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
Carter-VickersInjuryAbout 1–2 weeks6540
YangInjuryLate October 20265377
OsmandInjuryA few weeks028
JohnstonInjuryMid October 20262136

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 7Sparrow 7Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3Moormann 7Longelo 6Williams 1Hodge 5Priestman 2Fadinger 7Maswanhise 4Vogt 2Kanga 1Lowry 3Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Maswanhise 2Said 1Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 6Johnstone 1Donovan 4Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 1Trusty 6Scales 2Tierney 4Scales 3McGregor 6Baur 4Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 2McCowan 1Nygren 5Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Nygren 1Tounekti 1Durán 4Høgh 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 May 2026Motherwell2–3CelticxG 1.24–1.38
14 March 2026Celtic3–1MotherwellxG 2.12–0.64
30 December 2025Motherwell2–0CelticxG 1.40–0.59
5 October 2025Celtic3–2MotherwellxG 2.62–1.39
2 February 2025Motherwell1–3CelticxG 0.52–3.26
26 December 2024Celtic4–0MotherwellxG 3.55–0.23

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 1, Celtic won 17, and 2 were drawn. Goals 16–52 and xG 0.72–2.25 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6484120.600.05
Lowry5451210.310.27
Longelo7566000.090.27
Fadinger7599100.200.06

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren6486330.660.26
Durán6458330.510.31
Donovan5498000.050.09
McGregor6540000.070.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.