Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic 2–1 Falkirk

Saturday 29 August 2026, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 4 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 58,796

Celtic Durán 4', 29'

Falkirk Donovan 72' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticFalkirk
Goals21
xG3.450.57
Expected Points2.840.10

Celtic 93%Draw 6%Falkirk 2%

Most likely score 3–0, 14%. Final score 2–1, 7%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%3%7%2%2%9%2%8%5%1%5%3%10%14%10%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTForrest on for Hassan, 63'Trusty on for Tierney and Osmand on for Durán, 70'McCowan on for Oxlade-Chamberlain and Tounekti on for Yang, 78'Murrell on for Parkinson, 60'McLeod on for Ross, Doherty on for Fodrey, and Tanser on for McCann, 69'Melniks on for Krauhaus, 78'Durán 4'Durán 29'Donovan 72' (og)Celtic 3.45Falkirk 0.57012340153045607590HTForrest on for Hassan, 63'Trusty on for Tierney and Osmand on for Durán, 70'McCowan on for Oxlade-Chamberlain and Tounekti on for Yang, 78'Murrell on for Parkinson, 60'McLeod on for Ross, Doherty on for Fodrey, and Tanser on for McCann, 69'Melniks on for Krauhaus, 78'Durán 4'Durán 29'Donovan 72' (og)3.450.57CelticFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticFalkirk

3.45 −0.43xG0.57 +0.02
4.21 +0.32xG on target0.27 +0.07
19 −6Shots6 −4
8 −2.0Shots on target1 0.0
7 +0.5Big chances1 +0.5
25 −16Touches in the opposition box13 −16
56% −9Possession44% −6
584 −72Passes458 +40
90% +2Pass accuracy85% +8
74% +6Field tilt26% −23
59 0Final-third entries30 −14
18 −8Box entries6 −4
21.6 +11.2Passes per defensive action14.4 +5.0
6 −2.0Corners3 −1.5
12 −3Tackles15 −6
9 −1.5Interceptions9 +1.0
22 −6Clearances18 +1
1 −2.5Saves6 +3.5
7 −2.5Fouls14 −3.0
2 +2.0Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Baur 37', 0.49 xGNygren 75', 0.37 xGNygren 50', 0.28 xGYang 74', 0.28 xGNygren 33', 0.18 xGOsmand 85', 0.17 xGNygren 33', 0.14 xGNygren 84', 0.10 xGNygren 38', 0.09 xGYang 9', 0.07 xGNygren 52', 0.06 xGDurán 64', 0.06 xGForrest 67', 0.05 xGNygren 83', 0.05 xGOsmand 75', 0.04 xGOsmand 86', 0.04 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 14', 0.03 xGDurán 29', 0.58 xG, goalDurán 4', 0.36 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%2.45 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 2.45 xG, 1 goal20%0.70 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.70 xG, 1 goal9%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Murrell 72', 0.30 xGBarbrook 28', 0.09 xGFodrey 59', 0.07 xGParkinson 48', 0.06 xGNeilson 2', 0.02 xGSpencer 25', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals80%0.45 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticFalkirk

3.13 15 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.54 5 shots, 0 goals
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.20 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Celtic 0.36, Falkirk 0.02 xG
Celtic ahead
88 min (96%) · Celtic 3.08, Falkirk 0.54 xG

Line-ups

1512056322212381311SinisaloDonovanCarter-VickersScalesTierneyBaurOxlade-ChamberlainHassanNygrenYangDuránOwn goalYellow cardGoalGoal70'78'63'78'70'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill192215531682328997BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausFodreyParkinsonYellow cardYellow card69'69'78'69'60'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Celtic substitutes

  • 63' Forrest for Hassan
  • 70' Trusty for Tierney
  • 70' Osmand for Durán
  • 78' McCowan for Oxlade-Chamberlain
  • 78' Tounekti for Yang

Falkirk substitutes

  • 60' Murrell for Parkinson
  • 69' McLeod for Ross · yellow card 77'
  • 69' Tanser for McCann
  • 69' Doherty for Fodrey · yellow card 82'
  • 78' Melniks for Krauhaus

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0000.0212
Donovan RB900.000.0100.0355
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.1067
ScalesCB900.000.2530.35710
TierneyLB7010.000.4410.2371
BaurDM900.490.0310.1245
Oxlade-ChamberlainDM780.030.0310.0315
HassanRW630.000.1710.17130
NygrenAM901.280.0610.1771
YangLW780.350.0210.0385
DuránST7021.000.4220.0120
ForrestFW270.050.0100.0650
TrustyDF200.000.0000.0213
OsmandFW200.240.0100.0220
McCowanMF120.000.000−0.0100
TounektiFW120.000.0010.0321

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0111
StrainRB900.000.2030.30106
Neilson CB900.020.0000.0436
HendersonCB900.000.0000.0566
McCann LB690.000.0100.0250
BarbrookDM900.090.020−0.0128
SpencerDM900.020.0300.05106
RossRW690.000.0220.0012
KrauhausAM780.000.020−0.0312
FodreyLW690.070.0000.0215
ParkinsonST600.060.0000.0001
MurrellFW300.300.0000.0000
McLeod MF210.000.0810.0711
TanserMF210.000.0000.0111
Doherty FW210.000.0000.0110
MelniksDF120.000.000−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Sinisalo and Tierney: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Nygren: 5 passesTierney and Oxlade-Chamberlain: 5 passesOxlade-Chamberlain and Nygren: 5 passesTierney and Durán: 6 passesBaur and Oxlade-Chamberlain: 6 passesBaur and Hassan: 6 passesDonovan and Oxlade-Chamberlain: 7 passesCarter-Vickers and Hassan: 7 passesScales and Oxlade-Chamberlain: 8 passesScales and Yang: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Baur: 8 passesCarter-Vickers and Oxlade-Chamberlain: 10 passesScales and Baur: 11 passesHassan and Nygren: 12 passesDonovan and Carter-Vickers: 13 passesSinisalo and Scales: 17 passesTierney and Baur: 17 passesDonovan and Hassan: 19 passesSinisalo and Carter-Vickers: 24 passesTierney and Yang: 28 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 30 passesScales and Tierney: 37 passesSinisalo: 30 completed passesDonovan: 27 completed passesScales: 61 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 55 completed passesTierney: 59 completed passesBaur: 30 completed passesOxlade-Chamberlain: 26 completed passesHassan: 20 completed passesNygren: 21 completed passesYang: 22 completed passesDurán: 8 completed passes1515206322212381311SinisaloDonovanScalesCarter-VickersTierneyBaurOxlade-ChamberlainHassanNygrenYangDuránStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Falkirk

Strain and Fodrey: 4 passesMcCann and Krauhaus: 4 passesHenderson and Krauhaus: 5 passesMcCann and Barbrook: 5 passesBarbrook and Krauhaus: 5 passesBarbrook and Ross: 7 passesSpencer and Krauhaus: 7 passesBain and Strain: 8 passesStrain and Ross: 8 passesNeilson and Barbrook: 8 passesNeilson and Spencer: 8 passesMcCann and Fodrey: 8 passesNeilson and Henderson: 10 passesMcCann and Spencer: 10 passesBain and Henderson: 11 passesStrain and Krauhaus: 11 passesHenderson and Barbrook: 11 passesBain and Neilson: 12 passesStrain and Spencer: 12 passesHenderson and Spencer: 12 passesHenderson and McCann: 15 passesBarbrook and Spencer: 18 passesStrain and Neilson: 20 passesStrain and Barbrook: 28 passesBain: 22 completed passesStrain: 52 completed passesNeilson: 31 completed passesHenderson: 36 completed passesMcCann: 24 completed passesBarbrook: 44 completed passesSpencer: 36 completed passesRoss: 11 completed passesKrauhaus: 19 completed passesFodrey: 8 completed passesParkinson: 2 completed passes192215531682328997BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausFodreyParkinsonStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesTierney25
SinisaloCarter-Vickers24
Carter-VickersScales18
Carter-VickersDonovan18
TierneyYang16

Falkirk

FromToPasses
StrainNeilson19
StrainBarbrook16
BarbrookStrain16
SpencerBarbrook15
NeilsonHenderson15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

3+2.04−4.012+4.52−4.01−6.05+0.57−2.06+1.04−4.08+2.53−2.04−2.03−3.01−6.04−1.53−2.00−2.53+0.50−4.518+16.54+2.00−2.53−0.52+0.53+0.50−1.00−1.00−1.500.010.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Falkirk

8+6.07+2.017+6.59+5.05+2.53−4.06−1.02−1.58+1.05−3.09+1.06−0.54+2.52−2.07+3.08+3.01−4.02−1.53+1.05−2.02−2.00−1.02−2.00−4.06+0.510.00−2.01−2.00−1.01−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.010.010.020.060.020.040.060.070.040.060.110.030.060.08−0.010.070.09−0.020.100.210.19LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.030.010.010.020.010.010.020.020.040.02−0.010.030.050.06−0.010.010.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.15 → 2.18Falkirk1.19 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.89 → 0.88Falkirk1.43 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title88%90%+2
Falkirk
Top six27%25%−2
11th12%12%0
Bottom10%11%+1
Rangers
Title10%9%−1
Top six98%98%0

From the forecast before the match (29 August 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticFalkirk
Expected goals2.670.70
Win79%7%
Expected Points2.510.35
Clean sheet50%7%

Celtic 79%Draw 14%Falkirk 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 47%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%7%2%9%3%8%3%7%5%2%4%3%3%2%9%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 August 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawFalkirk win
Celtic
Title88%90%85%83%
Falkirk
Top six27%25%30%41%
11th12%12%10%9%
Bottom10%11%8%3%
Rangers
Title10%9%12%14%
Top six98%98%99%98%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W5–19 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 5.50–0.98
  2. W1–03 AugDundee FC (H)xG 2.26–0.49
  3. W3–116 MayHearts (H)xG 2.83–0.93
  4. W3–213 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.38–1.24
  5. W3–110 MayRangers (H)xG 1.08–0.94
  6. W2–13 MayHibernian (A)xG 2.81–0.36

Falkirk

  1. D0–09 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.27
  2. L0–21 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.55–1.57
  3. L2–516 MayRangers (H)xG 2.46–2.54
  4. L0–313 MayHearts (A)xG 0.28–0.56
  5. L1–39 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.63–1.10
  6. W1–02 MayMotherwell (H)xG 2.42–1.33

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticFalkirk
Position1st10th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠0–⁠00–⁠1–⁠1
Points6 (3.00 per game)1 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game2.750.67
Goals6–⁠10–⁠2
xG per game3.88–⁠0.730.55–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.26–⁠0.490.00, 0.55–⁠1.57
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 5.50–⁠0.981.00, 0.55–⁠1.27
ManagerMartin O'Neill (20)John McGlynn (40)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.15, 1stFalkirk1.19, 7thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.89, 1stFalkirk1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugCeltic attack: 2.15Falkirk attack: 1.192.151.19FalkirkCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugCeltic defence: 0.89Falkirk defence: 1.431.430.89

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+150%−45%−20%−5%
Counter-attacks+61%−66%−6%+29%
Set pieces−15%−12%−35%−27%
Penalties−4%−28%−52%−28%
Headers+143%−31%−51%−24%
Left side+105%−46%−45%+24%
Centre+131%−39%−26%−21%
Right side+10%−31%+7%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+105%−5%Centre+131%−21%Right side+10%+24%Open play+150%−5%Counter-attacks+61%+29%Set pieces−15%−27%Headers+143%−24%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−45%−31%Centre−26%−39%Right side+7%−46%Open play−20%−45%Counter-attacks−6%−66%Set pieces−35%−12%Headers−51%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticFalkirk

3.88xG0.55
0.73xG against1.42
65%Possession50%
25.5Shots10.0
10.5Shots against13.0
10.0Shots on target1.0
6.5Big chances0.5
41.5Touches in the opposition box29.0
656Passes418
88%Pass accuracy77%
8.0Corners4.5
68%Field tilt50%
58.5Final-third entries44.5
26.0Box entries10.0
10.4Passes per defensive action9.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level273.830.53
Ahead633.900.82
Behind0––

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.551.36
Ahead0––
Behind400.551.49

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.760.441–0
16–300.850.020–0
31–450.640.082–0
46–600.570.082–1
61–750.390.001–0
76–900.660.120–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.210–1
16–300.120.220–0
31–450.060.280–0
46–600.000.100–0
61–750.200.360–0
76–900.120.250–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 2Trusty 2Tierney 2McGregor 2Engels 2Durán 2Nygren 2Yang 2Høgh 24-2-3-1 in every start

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 2Strain 2Neilson 1Melniks 1Henderson 2McCann 1Tanser 1Barbrook 1McMillan 1Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Doherty 1Gardner 1Yeats 2Ross 1Laidlaw 1Parkinson 1MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 April 2026Celtic3–1FalkirkxG 1.11–0.92
1 February 2026Celtic2–0FalkirkxG 0.66–1.07
14 January 2026Falkirk0–1CelticxG 1.72–0.62
29 October 2025Celtic4–0FalkirkxG 4.29–0.47

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 4, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 10–1 and xG 1.67–1.04 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren312,7001860.500.28
Forrest3794110.280.41
McCowan121,263210.200.31
Yang302,226810.310.16

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver10841310.330.16
Ross81,020110.200.06
Yeats191,443200.080.07
McCann262,248030.000.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.