Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Livingston 2–2 Aberdeen

Friday 1 May 2026, 19:45 · Home of the Set Fare Arena · Round 35 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 3,745

Livingston Nouble 47', Muirhead 78'

Aberdeen Frame 24', Finlayson 71' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonAberdeen
Goals22
xG1.560.86
Expected Points1.940.77

Livingston 55%Draw 29%Aberdeen 16%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Aberdeen goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%7%1%12%13%6%1%5%5%2%1%1%15%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTPittman on for May, McKay on for Arfield, and Tait on for Wilson, 46'Fati on for Montaño, 59'Muirhead on for Nouble, 71'Knoester on for Milne, 66'Keskinen on for Geiger and Palaversa on for Olusanya, 74'Milanovic on for Jensen, 83'Bwomono on for Frame, 84'Nouble 47'Muirhead 78'Frame 24'Finlayson 71' (og)Livingston 1.56Aberdeen 0.8600.511.520153045607590HTPittman on for May, McKay on for Arfield, and Tait on for Wilson, 46'Fati on for Montaño, 59'Muirhead on for Nouble, 71'Knoester on for Milne, 66'Keskinen on for Geiger and Palaversa on for Olusanya, 74'Milanovic on for Jensen, 83'Bwomono on for Frame, 84'Nouble 47'Muirhead 78'Frame 24'Finlayson 71' (og)1.560.86LivingstonAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonAberdeen

1.56 +0.55xG0.86 −0.33
2.05 +1.00xG on target0.35 −0.67
16 +6.5Shots7 −4.4
5 +1.7Shots on target2 −1.5
1 −0.4Big chances1 −0.9
27 +8Touches in the opposition box20 −2
50% +6Possession50% +2
413 +55Passes418 +28
75% +3Pass accuracy74% −3
6 +1.5Corners3 −1.8
10 −7Tackles17 +1
8 −1.1Interceptions10 +2.0
26 −9Clearances30 −2
1 −2.1Saves3 −0.3
10 −4Fouls15 0
2 +0.5Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Livingston

Nouble 63', 0.16 xGKabongolo 12', 0.12 xGSylla 47', 0.10 xGKabongolo 13', 0.09 xGNouble 20', 0.07 xGMcKay 46', 0.05 xGSmith 54', 0.05 xGNouble 38', 0.04 xGMuirhead 80', 0.04 xGMuirhead 90', 0.04 xGFinlayson 90+4', 0.03 xGWilson 39', 0.02 xGFati 76', 0.02 xGMay 37', 0.01 xGNouble 47', 0.72 xG, goalMuirhead 78', 0.03 xG, goal46%0.72 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.72 xG, 1 goal36%0.57 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals6%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals11%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Geiger 34', 0.32 xGArmstrong 36', 0.23 xGNisbet 55', 0.10 xGNisbet 71', 0.06 xGMilanovic 85', 0.06 xGNisbet 22', 0.02 xGFrame 24', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals58%0.49 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals34%0.29 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonAberdeen

0.23 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.46 4 shots, 1 goal
0.21 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.33 2 shots, 0 goals
1.13 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.07 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (69%) · Livingston 0.68, Aberdeen 0.24 xG
Aberdeen ahead
30 min (31%) · Livingston 0.89, Aberdeen 0.61 xG

Line-ups

28232751937242615177PriorKabongoloWilsonMcGowanFinlaysonArfieldSyllaMontañoSmithMayNoubleOwn goalYellow cardGoal46'46'59'46'71'Livingston 3-4-2-1Marvin Bartley1222321283216382015MitovMilneMorrisonMolloyJensenAremuArmstrongFrameGeigerOlusanyaNisbetGoal66'83'84'74'74'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Stephen Robinson

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' McKay for Arfield
  • 46' Tait for Wilson · yellow card 90'
  • 46' Pittman for May
  • 59' Fati for Montaño · yellow card 70'
  • 71' Muirhead for Nouble · goal 78'

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 66' Knoester for Milne
  • 74' Palaversa for Olusanya
  • 74' Keskinen for Geiger · yellow card 90+6'
  • 83' Milanovic for Jensen
  • 84' Bwomono for Frame

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
PriorGK900.000.0002
KabongoloCB900.200.0208
WilsonCB460.020.0013
McGowanCB900.000.0103
Finlayson RWB900.030.1614
ArfieldCM460.000.0001
SyllaCM900.100.0105
MontañoLWB590.000.2115
SmithAM900.050.0825
MayAM460.010.1121
NoubleST7110.980.0100
McKayMF440.050.1930
Tait MF440.000.0114
PittmanMF440.000.0102
Fati DF310.020.0113
MuirheadFW1910.110.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
MitovGK900.000.0001
MilneCB660.000.0108
MorrisonCB900.000.00011
MolloyCB900.000.04012
JensenRWB830.000.0103
AremuCM900.000.0708
ArmstrongCM900.230.1411
FrameLWB8410.070.0104
GeigerAM7410.320.0416
OlusanyaST740.000.0812
NisbetST900.190.0821
KnoesterDF240.000.0003
PalaversaMF160.000.0001
Keskinen FW160.000.0100
MilanovicFW70.060.0001
BwomonoDF60.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackLivingston0.96 → 0.98Aberdeen1.14 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.81 → 1.78Aberdeen1.47 → 1.49

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th1%<1%−1
Bottom99%>99%+1

From the forecast before the match (1 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonAberdeen
Expected goals1.241.35
Win34%39%
Expected Points1.281.44
Clean sheet26%29%

Livingston 34%Draw 28%Aberdeen 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Aberdeen goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%9%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawAberdeen win
Livingston
11th1%2%<1%<1%
Bottom99%98%>99%>99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. W2–025 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.72–1.10
  2. L2–311 AprDundee United (A)xG 1.81–1.82
  3. D2–25 AprHearts (H)xG 2.00–1.87
  4. L0–221 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 0.79–1.71
  5. D0–014 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.14–2.18
  6. D1–128 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.02

Aberdeen

  1. W1–025 AprKilmarnock (H)xG 0.50–0.71
  2. W2–011 AprHibernian (H)xG 1.93–0.10
  3. L0–24 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.53–0.90
  4. L1–421 MarRangers (A)xG 0.68–1.61
  5. D1–114 MarFalkirk (H)xG 1.54–0.76
  6. L1–24 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.42–1.90

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonAberdeen
Position12th8th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠13–⁠1910–⁠6–⁠18
Points19 (0.56 per game)36 (1.06 per game)
Expected Points per game0.831.18
Goals37–⁠6634–⁠48
xG per game1.01–⁠1.961.19–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game0.62, 1.07–⁠1.851.35, 1.43–⁠1.44
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.95–⁠2.060.76, 0.96–⁠1.70
ManagerMarvin Bartley (9)Stephen Robinson (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackLivingston0.96, 12thAberdeen1.14, 8thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.81, 12thAberdeen1.47, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprLivingston attack: 0.96Aberdeen attack: 1.141.140.96AberdeenLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprLivingston defence: 1.81Aberdeen defence: 1.471.811.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−39%+37%−21%−6%
Counter-attacks−29%+20%+2%+34%
Set pieces−22%+40%−11%+47%
Penalties+18%+57%−21%−21%
Headers−32%+36%−31%+31%
Left side−45%+24%+12%−2%
Centre−30%+37%−25%+21%
Right side−29%+48%−23%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdAberdeen concededLeft side−45%+13%Centre−30%+21%Right side−29%−2%Open play−39%−6%Counter-attacks−29%+34%Set pieces−22%+47%Headers−32%+31%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdLivingston concededLeft side+12%+48%Centre−25%+37%Right side−23%+24%Open play−21%+37%Counter-attacks+2%+20%Set pieces−11%+40%Headers−31%+36%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonAberdeen

1.01xG1.19
1.96xG against1.57
44%Possession48%
9.5Shots11.4
15.4Shots against14.9
3.3Shots on target3.5
1.4Big chances1.9
19.2Touches in the opposition box21.6
358Passes390
72%Pass accuracy76%
4.5Corners4.8
37%Field tilt44%
30.4Final-third entries35.0
8.5Box entries11.0
14.0Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.882.00
Ahead100.932.82
Behind361.191.66

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.171.62
Ahead170.961.20
Behind291.371.72

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.375–12
16–300.140.276–10
31–450.250.405–9
46–600.170.317–8
61–750.150.225–7
76–900.200.399–20

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.213–5
16–300.180.247–7
31–450.240.334–9
46–600.200.292–7
61–750.200.249–7
76–900.270.269–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWPrior 34Finlayson 14Brenet 9Kerr 5McGowan 19Finlayson 12Sylla 2Wilson 27Kabongolo 3Blaney 3Montaño 15Montgomery 8Fati 6Sylla 19Smith 4Finlayson 2Pittman 26Danso 4Arfield 3Tait 26Susoho 13May 2Smith 13Kabongolo 6McLennan 4Muirhead 11Bokila 8Yengi 7May 14McLennan 4Yengi 44-3-3 in 11 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 30Bråtveit 4Devlin 14Jensen 12Lobban 6Milne 23Morrison 9Devlin 2Knoester 23Molloy 6McIntyre 3Gyamfi 9Frame 7Molloy 4Armstrong 12Aouchiche 7Aremu 5Shinnie 15Polvara 7Geiger 5Devlin 6Milanovic 5Olusanya 4Aouchiche 7Cameron 6Armstrong 4Karlsson 13Keskinen 9Armstrong 4Nisbet 18Lazetic 9Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-3 (5), 4-1-4-1 (5), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 January 2026Aberdeen6–2LivingstonxG 3.08–2.01
30 November 2025Livingston0–1AberdeenxG 0.99–0.76
13 September 2025Aberdeen0–0LivingstonxG 1.22–0.56
15 May 2024Aberdeen5–1LivingstonxG 1.77–1.65
6 April 2024Livingston0–0AberdeenxG 0.76–0.92
20 December 2023Aberdeen2–1LivingstonxG 1.00–1.53

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 4, Aberdeen won 10, and 4 were drawn. Goals 15–31 and xG 1.06–1.58 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead151,370420.440.19
Yengi111,054200.300.08
Smith221,720720.190.17
McLennan8766300.260.08

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet221,905910.390.09
Karlsson161,292500.340.12
Armstrong221,915150.150.19
Keskinen161,425330.150.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.