Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee FC 1–0 Falkirk

Saturday 27 December 2025, 15:00 · Dens Park · Round 19 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 6,798

Dundee FC Dhanda 45+5' (pen) · Murray sent off 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCFalkirk
Goals10
xG1.241.33
Non-penalty xG0.461.33
Expected Points1.321.35

Dundee FC 33%Draw 33%Falkirk 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 22%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Falkirk goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+4%5%3%1%13%13%6%2%6%9%7%3%1%2%1%22%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMurray (Dundee FC), red card 87'Murray on for Congreve and Samuels on for Yogane, 61'Digby on for Jones and Acquah on for Hay, 90+2'Agyeman on for Wilson, Ross on for Williams, and Tait on for Yeats, 66'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Graham, 77'Nesbitt on for Spencer, 82'Dhanda 45+5' (pen)Falkirk 1.33Dundee FC 1.2400.511.50153045607590HTMurray (Dundee FC), red card 87'Murray on for Congreve and Samuels on for Yogane, 61'Digby on for Jones and Acquah on for Hay, 90+2'Agyeman on for Wilson, Ross on for Williams, and Tait on for Yeats, 66'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Graham, 77'Nesbitt on for Spencer, 82'Dhanda 45+5' (pen)1.331.24Dundee FCFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCFalkirk

1.24 +0.59xG1.33 +0.20
0.46Non-penalty xG1.33
1.60 +0.93xG on target0.09 −1.06
10 +2.2Shots23 +12.1
4 +1.4Shots on target1 −2.9
1 +0.2Big chances1 −0.9
22 +11Touches in the opposition box26 +7
42% +4Possession58% +8
295 −31Passes402 +14
71% −3Pass accuracy78% +3
41% +12Field tilt59% +13
39 +12Final-third entries41 +8
8 +3.1Box entries14 +4.1
18.1 −5Passes per defensive action7.7 −5
1 −2.0Corners9 +4.6
15 +1Tackles19 +1
11 +2.6Interceptions5 −3.9
49 +16Clearances19 −12
1 −3.2Saves3 −0.6
11 +1.9Fouls20 +7.4
1 −0.4Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Hay 10', 0.11 xGDhanda 15', 0.07 xGDhanda 18', 0.07 xGCongreve 24', 0.05 xGDhanda 45+2', 0.04 xGWright 72', 0.04 xGWright 82', 0.04 xGKoumetio 1', 0.03 xGDhanda 30', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals47%0.21 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals22%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals27%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Samuel-Ogunsuyi 90+6', 0.18 xGHenderson 12', 0.12 xGNesbitt 90+9', 0.11 xGMiller 55', 0.10 xGGraham 35', 0.09 xGMiller 40', 0.08 xGAgyeman 90+1', 0.08 xGWilliams 7', 0.06 xGWilliams 65', 0.06 xGAllan 90', 0.06 xGSamuel-Ogunsuyi 85', 0.05 xGLissah 89', 0.05 xGMiller 31', 0.04 xGYeats 58', 0.04 xGWilson 9', 0.03 xGWilliams 17', 0.03 xGAdams 59', 0.03 xGTait 77', 0.03 xGHenderson 90+7', 0.03 xGSpencer 38', 0.02 xGWilliams 62', 0.02 xGNesbitt 90+1', 0.02 xGWilliams 17', 0.00 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals69%0.92 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 0.92 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals31%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 12 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCFalkirk

0.39 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.86 13 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.37 9 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (48%) · Dundee FC 1.16, Falkirk 0.48 xG
Dundee FC ahead
54 min (52%) · Dundee FC 0.08, Falkirk 0.85 xG

Line-ups

145227204828172111McCrackenAstleyKoumetioGrahamWrightCongreveHamiltonJonesYoganeDhandaHayYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card61'90+2'61'90+2'Dundee FC 4-4-1-1Steven Pressley192205288142229247BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahSpencerYeatsWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamYellow cardYellow card82'66'66'66'77'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 61' Samuels for Yogane
  • 61' Murray for Congreve · red card 87'
  • 90+2' Digby for Jones
  • 90+2' Acquah for Hay

Falkirk substitutes

  • 66' Tait for Yeats
  • 66' Agyeman for Wilson
  • 66' Ross for Williams
  • 77' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for Graham
  • 82' Nesbitt for Spencer

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0213
AstleyRB900.000.0210.0237
KoumetioCB900.030.0300.08518
GrahamCB900.000.091−0.14317
Wright LB900.080.0200.0787
Congreve RM610.050.2420.1230
HamiltonCM900.000.010−0.0407
JonesCM900.000.010−0.0215
YoganeLM610.000.1620.1263
Dhanda AM9010.980.1320.17118
HayST900.110.1700.1026
SamuelsDF290.000.0000.0313
Murray FW260.000.000−0.1700
DigbyMF00.000.0000.0000
AcquahFW00.000.0000.0001

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0650
AdamsRB900.030.2050.40124
AllanCB900.060.0100.1487
HendersonCB900.150.0100.0466
LissahLB900.050.0400.1259
Spencer DM820.020.0110.0541
YeatsDM660.040.0110.0138
WilsonRW660.030.0010.0014
Miller AM900.220.2040.1981
WilliamsLW660.170.0300.0522
GrahamST770.090.000−0.0210
TaitMF240.030.3020.29102
AgyemanFW240.080.000−0.0100
RossFW240.000.0100.0010
Samuel-OgunsuyiFW130.230.0000.0000
NesbittMF80.130.0000.0241

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Congreve and Hay: 3 passesDhanda and Hay: 3 passesJones and Yogane: 3 passesJones and Hay: 3 passesAstley and Jones: 4 passesKoumetio and Hamilton: 4 passesKoumetio and Jones: 4 passesGraham and Dhanda: 4 passesWright and Hay: 4 passesHamilton and Dhanda: 4 passesKoumetio and Graham: 5 passesKoumetio and Yogane: 5 passesWright and Hamilton: 5 passesHamilton and Yogane: 5 passesAstley and Dhanda: 6 passesCongreve and Dhanda: 6 passesKoumetio and Wright: 7 passesWright and Jones: 7 passesDhanda and Yogane: 7 passesAstley and Congreve: 8 passesGraham and Hamilton: 9 passesAstley and Graham: 11 passesWright and Yogane: 11 passesMcCracken and Koumetio: 14 passesMcCracken and Graham: 14 passesMcCracken: 18 completed passesAstley: 17 completed passesKoumetio: 23 completed passesGraham: 23 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesHamilton: 17 completed passesCongreve: 9 completed passesDhanda: 17 completed passesJones: 18 completed passesYogane: 14 completed passesHay: 6 completed passes145227482021281711McCrackenAstleyKoumetioGrahamWrightHamiltonCongreveDhandaJonesYoganeHayStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Bain and Graham: 4 passesHenderson and Yeats: 4 passesHenderson and Miller: 4 passesHenderson and Williams: 4 passesLissah and Miller: 4 passesLissah and Williams: 4 passesWilson and Miller: 4 passesBain and Adams: 5 passesAllan and Yeats: 5 passesSpencer and Wilson: 5 passesSpencer and Williams: 5 passesBain and Henderson: 6 passesHenderson and Spencer: 6 passesBain and Spencer: 7 passesSpencer and Miller: 7 passesMiller and Williams: 7 passesAdams and Yeats: 8 passesHenderson and Lissah: 9 passesAdams and Wilson: 11 passesAllan and Henderson: 11 passesAdams and Spencer: 12 passesAllan and Spencer: 12 passesAdams and Miller: 15 passesBain and Allan: 16 passesAdams and Allan: 20 passesBain: 22 completed passesAdams: 45 completed passesAllan: 37 completed passesHenderson: 25 completed passesLissah: 12 completed passesYeats: 14 completed passesSpencer: 32 completed passesWilson: 14 completed passesMiller: 21 completed passesWilliams: 12 completed passesGraham: 3 completed passes192205281482229247BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahYeatsSpencerWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
McCrackenKoumetio10
GrahamMcCracken9
GrahamHamilton8
McCrackenGraham7
WrightYogane6

Falkirk

FromToPasses
AdamsAllan17
AdamsMiller12
AllanBain12
AllanAdams10
SpencerAdams9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

2−3.29+1.624+6.115+6.87+2.41−3.28+1.19+0.710+2.48+1.27+2.67+2.85+2.312+7.83−2.02−1.93+0.31−0.44+1.97+4.31−1.00−1.71+0.12+1.01−1.10−0.70−0.30−0.70−0.20−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Falkirk

1−6.83−3.812−2.65−2.51−4.46−3.86−0.84−2.616+8.97−1.52−5.13−2.14+1.01−3.27+0.35+0.94+0.20−2.12−0.84−0.32−2.04+2.23+1.82−0.11−1.62+0.92+1.72+1.51+0.70−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.020.010.010.010.010.030.020.01−0.010.040.050.040.030.110.030.040.02−0.03−0.010.010.01−0.430.040.010.29LessMore

Falkirk

0.030.020.030.010.030.010.030.010.010.050.030.150.020.030.010.130.060.110.010.180.050.010.32LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC0.95 → 0.96Falkirk1.08 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.73 → 1.69Falkirk1.44 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
11th35%33%−2
Bottom34%25%−9
Falkirk
Top six31%21%−10
11th2%4%+2
Bottom0%1%+1
Livingston
11th29%26%−3
Bottom46%52%+6
Aberdeen
Top six53%57%+4

From the forecast before the match (27 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCFalkirk
Expected goals1.211.26
Win35%37%
Expected Points1.331.39
Clean sheet28%30%

Dundee FC 35%Draw 28%Falkirk 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Falkirk goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%10%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawFalkirk win
Dundee FC
11th35%33%37%35%
Bottom34%25%35%42%
Falkirk
Top six31%21%30%42%
11th2%4%2%1%
Bottom0%1%<1%<1%
Livingston
11th29%26%29%33%
Bottom46%52%46%40%
Aberdeen
Top six53%57%53%49%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L0–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.23–1.23
  2. D2–213 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.46–0.89
  3. L1–36 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.12–1.38
  4. L0–13 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.21–2.08
  5. W3–129 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.68–1.39
  6. L0–222 NovHibernian (A)xG 0.56–2.26

Falkirk

  1. W1–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.46–1.19
  2. L0–213 DecHearts (H)xG 1.03–1.51
  3. L0–36 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.49–2.02
  4. D0–03 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.57–0.47
  5. D0–030 NovRangers (A)xG 0.12–2.24
  6. W3–022 NovDundee United (A)xG 1.78–0.74

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCFalkirk
Position10th7th
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠4–⁠116–⁠6–⁠6
Points13 (0.72 per game)24 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game0.691.22
Goals15–⁠3220–⁠26
xG per game0.65–⁠1.671.13–⁠1.47
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 0.92–⁠1.561.22, 1.32–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game0.30, 0.43–⁠1.761.44, 0.93–⁠1.78
ManagerSteven Pressley (18)John McGlynn (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC0.95, 12thFalkirk1.08, 10thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.73, 12thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee FC attack: 0.95Falkirk attack: 1.081.080.95FalkirkDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee FC defence: 1.73Falkirk defence: 1.441.731.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−57%+31%−9%+13%
Counter-attacks−65%−27%−10%+38%
Set pieces−35%+28%−24%−18%
Penalties−66%+1%−66%+1%
Headers−36%+25%−35%+18%
Left side−52%+19%−54%−15%
Centre−52%+18%−21%+10%
Right side−50%+38%+47%+23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side−52%+23%Centre−52%+10%Right side−50%−15%Open play−57%+13%Counter-attacks−65%+38%Set pieces−35%−18%Headers−36%+18%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−54%+38%Centre−21%+18%Right side+47%+19%Open play−9%+31%Counter-attacks−10%−27%Set pieces−24%+28%Headers−35%+25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCFalkirk

0.65xG1.13
1.67xG against1.47
38%Possession50%
7.8Shots10.9
15.9Shots against13.2
2.6Shots on target3.9
0.8Big chances1.9
11.2Touches in the opposition box18.7
326Passes388
74%Pass accuracy75%
3.0Corners4.4
29%Field tilt46%
26.9Final-third entries32.8
4.9Box entries9.9
23.0Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.751.61
Ahead170.752.00
Behind350.491.57

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.141.67
Ahead171.120.71
Behind281.121.61

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.201–4
16–300.060.244–7
31–450.130.294–6
46–600.080.263–3
61–750.120.271–3
76–900.150.412–9

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.172–1
16–300.210.313–6
31–450.200.362–8
46–600.210.204–2
61–750.180.236–4
76–900.130.213–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWMcCracken 18Astley 15Wright 1C. Robertson 14Graham 16Koumetio 5Samuels 3Wright 11Congreve 6Ingram 1Digby 8Robertson 7Jones 3Hamilton 12Westley 3Samuels 9Yogane 6Dhanda 2Congreve 6Westley 3Jones 2Murray 10Hay 3Westley 3Wright 4Westley 4Murray 33-4-3 in 7 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-5-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 18Adams 14Lissah 2Allan 1Allan 9Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 18McCann 9Lissah 6Hart 2Spencer 18Cartwright 7Tait 11Wilson 9Miller 4Williams 2Miller 7Tait 4Williams 3Miller 6Williams 5Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 6Samuel-Ogunsuyi 24-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 October 2025Falkirk2–1Dundee FCxG 1.08–1.21

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 0, Falkirk won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.21–1.08 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Congreve131,166160.070.33
Westley13851200.190.14
Murray131,024100.210.01
Jones5646100.160.05

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Graham6622400.490.08
MacIver9661310.410.12
Miller171,338330.230.21
Wilson9724110.270.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.