Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 2–0 Aberdeen

Tuesday 23 September 2025, 19:45 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 3 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 11,052

Dundee United Dolcek 45', Esselink 50'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Goals20
xG1.331.33
Expected Points1.361.35

Dundee United 35%Draw 29%Aberdeen 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 2–0, 6%.

Aberdeen goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+6%8%6%2%8%9%4%1%6%9%7%3%2%4%3%1%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSibbald on for Iovu, 74'Möller on for Fatah, 77'Eskesen on for Camara and Naamo on for Dolcek, 83'Milne on for Dorrington, 46'Yengi on for Nisbet, Aouchiche on for Nilsen, and Bilalovic on for Polvara, 67'Keskinen on for Milanovic, 86'Dolcek 45'Esselink 50'Aberdeen 1.33Dundee United 1.3300.511.50153045607590HTSibbald on for Iovu, 74'Möller on for Fatah, 77'Eskesen on for Camara and Naamo on for Dolcek, 83'Milne on for Dorrington, 46'Yengi on for Nisbet, Aouchiche on for Nilsen, and Bilalovic on for Polvara, 67'Keskinen on for Milanovic, 86'Dolcek 45'Esselink 50'1.331.33Dundee UnitedAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

1.33 +0.16xG1.33 +0.30
2.65 +0.84xG on target0.30 −0.02
15 +3Shots16 +5
5 −1.0Shots on target2 −0.2
2 −0.5Big chances1 −0.5
37 +19Touches in the opposition box21 0
43% +1Possession57% +13
335 +14Passes450 +93
73% −4Pass accuracy79% +6
50% +9Field tilt50% +9
38 +11Final-third entries38 +12
15 +5.0Box entries8 −1.8
12.6 −4Passes per defensive action12.9 −5
11 +8.0Corners3 −0.8
14 −5Tackles15 0
12 +4.5Interceptions7 +1.8
33 −7Clearances27 0
2 −1.8Saves3 −0.2
11 −3Fouls11 −5
1 −1.5Offsides1 −2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Esselink 24', 0.22 xGSapsford 57', 0.18 xGSapsford 23', 0.12 xGDolcek 53', 0.09 xGFerry 57', 0.07 xGSevelj 90+1', 0.07 xGSapsford 66', 0.03 xGSevelj 50', 0.02 xGKeresztes 53', 0.02 xGDolcek 69', 0.02 xGSapsford 84', 0.02 xGEsselink 18', 0.01 xGSevelj 61', 0.01 xGEsselink 50', 0.29 xG, goalDolcek 45', 0.16 xG, goal38%0.51 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal50%0.66 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals6%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Polvara 48', 0.32 xGAouchiche 75', 0.17 xGNisbet 29', 0.15 xGKarlsson 7', 0.14 xGPolvara 29', 0.13 xGMilanovic 48', 0.11 xGKarlsson 82', 0.08 xGYengi 90+2', 0.05 xGArmstrong 72', 0.04 xGGyamfi 90+3', 0.04 xGKarlsson 72', 0.03 xGKarlsson 29', 0.02 xGAouchiche 69', 0.02 xGKarlsson 71', 0.02 xGArmstrong 89', 0.02 xGMilanovic 70', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%1.05 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals11%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

0.39 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.22 14 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.08 1 shot, 0 goals
0.94 6 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (47%) · Dundee United 0.52, Aberdeen 0.43 xG
Dundee United ahead
50 min (53%) · Dundee United 0.81, Aberdeen 0.91 xG

Line-ups

1432321581119917KucherenkoIovuEsselinkKeresztesStephensonSeveljCamaraFerryDolcekSapsfordFatahGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card74'83'83'77'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin128265771661181715MitovJensenDorringtonKnoesterGyamfiArmstrongNilsenMilanovicPolvaraKarlssonNisbet46'67'86'67'67'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Dundee United substitutes

  • 74' Sibbald for Iovu
  • 77' Möller for Fatah
  • 83' Naamo for Dolcek
  • 83' Eskesen for Camara

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Milne for Dorrington
  • 67' Aouchiche for Nilsen
  • 67' Bilalovic for Polvara
  • 67' Yengi for Nisbet · yellow card 90+5'
  • 86' Keskinen for Milanovic

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KucherenkoGK900.000.0000.0230
IovuCB740.000.0200.0344
EsselinkCB9010.530.0110.09919
KeresztesCB900.020.0300.1278
StephensonRWB900.000.0210.0346
Sevelj CM9010.100.3120.2345
CamaraCM830.000.0310.0874
FerryLWB900.070.0910.1647
DolcekRW8310.280.241−0.0301
Sapsford ST900.340.0400.0832
FatahLW770.000.1920.1014
SibbaldMF160.000.0000.0001
MöllerFW130.000.000−0.0100
NaamoDF70.000.0010.0201
EskesenMF70.000.0210.0202

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0452
JensenRB900.000.0210.0754
DorringtonCB460.000.0000.0225
KnoesterCB900.000.0100.15128
GyamfiLB900.040.000−0.0323
ArmstrongDM900.060.3430.1943
NilsenDM670.000.0300.0342
MilanovicRW860.120.0820.1037
PolvaraAM670.450.010−0.1113
KarlssonLW900.280.1030.1571
NisbetST670.150.0010.0001
MilneDF440.000.0000.0589
AouchicheMF230.190.0210.0752
BilalovicFW230.000.0110.0501
Yengi FW230.050.021−0.0700
KeskinenFW40.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Keresztes and Iovu: 4 passesIovu and Dolcek: 4 passesEsselink and Ferry: 4 passesStephenson and Esselink: 5 passesIovu and Sevelj: 5 passesFerry and Sapsford: 5 passesStephenson and Iovu: 6 passesStephenson and Camara: 6 passesFatah and Sapsford: 6 passesKucherenko and Esselink: 7 passesKeresztes and Fatah: 7 passesDolcek and Sevelj: 8 passesKeresztes and Camara: 9 passesEsselink and Sevelj: 9 passesStephenson and Sevelj: 10 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 10 passesEsselink and Camara: 11 passesCamara and Fatah: 12 passesSevelj and Camara: 14 passesKeresztes and Esselink: 17 passesIovu and Esselink: 28 passesKucherenko: 8 completed passesStephenson: 14 completed passesKeresztes: 26 completed passesIovu: 30 completed passesEsselink: 45 completed passesFerry: 19 completed passesDolcek: 12 completed passesSevelj: 28 completed passesCamara: 34 completed passesFatah: 18 completed passesSapsford: 6 completed passes1212343111958179KucherenkoStephensonKeresztesIovuEsselinkFerryDolcekSeveljCamaraFatahSapsfordStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and Gyamfi: 3 passesMitov and Nilsen: 3 passesKnoester and Polvara: 3 passesArmstrong and Milanovic: 3 passesArmstrong and Karlsson: 3 passesDorrington and Milanovic: 4 passesJensen and Armstrong: 5 passesJensen and Milanovic: 5 passesDorrington and Nilsen: 5 passesGyamfi and Polvara: 5 passesGyamfi and Karlsson: 5 passesMitov and Dorrington: 6 passesNilsen and Armstrong: 6 passesJensen and Nilsen: 7 passesKnoester and Nilsen: 7 passesMitov and Knoester: 8 passesKnoester and Armstrong: 9 passesGyamfi and Nilsen: 12 passesJensen and Dorrington: 13 passesKnoester and Gyamfi: 15 passesKnoester and Dorrington: 17 passesMitov: 13 completed passesJensen: 18 completed passesKnoester: 35 completed passesDorrington: 24 completed passesGyamfi: 26 completed passesNilsen: 21 completed passesArmstrong: 18 completed passesMilanovic: 7 completed passesPolvara: 7 completed passesKarlsson: 4 completed passesNisbet: 1 completed passes128526776161181715MitovJensenKnoesterDorringtonGyamfiNilsenArmstrongMilanovicPolvaraKarlssonNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
IovuEsselink18
EsselinkKeresztes13
EsselinkIovu10
SeveljCamara8
StephensonSevelj8

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
GyamfiKnoester20
MitovKnoester13
KnoesterMitov12
KnoesterDorrington10
GyamfiNilsen10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5−2.513+5.54−1.55−4.211+1.88−0.212+1.26−4.09+5.05+1.040.07+1.85−2.08+5.83−1.220.03−0.51−1.56+4.53+1.81−0.25+3.02+0.52+1.51+0.51+0.200.02+1.012−5.20−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Aberdeen

3−3.860.013+2.213+6.26+1.07−2.213+8.02−1.88−3.25−2.03−4.24+0.82−0.87+2.27−1.82−2.03−0.530.03−0.23−3.50−3.02+1.20−0.20−1.82−0.20−0.50−0.20−1.20−0.20−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.010.020.040.010.010.040.040.020.060.050.040.040.010.010.040.100.13−0.01−0.010.040.21LessMore

Aberdeen

0.020.010.010.010.030.020.040.020.020.020.060.010.030.020.010.040.010.020.060.080.060.060.05−0.170.020.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackDundee United1.20 → 1.21Aberdeen1.21 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.50 → 1.48Aberdeen1.43 → 1.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six34%43%+9
11th8%5%−3
Bottom4%2%−2
Aberdeen
Top six22%15%−7
11th11%15%+4
Bottom6%8%+2

From the forecast before the match (23 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Expected goals1.451.21
Win42%31%
Expected Points1.541.19
Clean sheet30%23%

Dundee United 42%Draw 27%Aberdeen 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawAberdeen win
Dundee United
Top six34%43%31%24%
11th8%5%8%12%
Bottom4%2%4%6%
Aberdeen
Top six22%15%21%32%
11th11%15%10%8%
Bottom6%8%7%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D3–313 SepHibernian (A)xG 1.87–3.05
  2. W2–031 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.91–0.12
  3. L2–310 AugHearts (H)xG 0.71–1.87
  4. D2–23 AugFalkirk (A)xG 1.19–2.02
  5. W2–117 MayAberdeen (H)xG 1.93–1.70
  6. L1–314 MayRangers (A)xG 0.78–1.69

Aberdeen

  1. D0–013 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.56
  2. L0–131 AugFalkirk (H)xG 0.96–1.26
  3. L0–210 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.55–1.17
  4. L0–24 AugHearts (A)xG 1.40–1.03
  5. L1–217 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.70–1.93
  6. L1–514 MayCeltic (H)xG 1.07–3.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Position6th12th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠10–⁠1–⁠3
Points5 (1.25 per game)1 (0.25 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.38
Goals9–⁠80–⁠5
xG per game1.17–⁠1.761.03–⁠1.00
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.71–⁠1.870.33, 0.91–⁠1.00
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 1.32–⁠1.730.00, 1.40–⁠1.03
ManagerJim Goodwin (54)Jimmy Thelin (42)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.37AttackDundee United1.20, 9thAberdeen1.21, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.50, 9thAberdeen1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepDundee United attack: 1.20Aberdeen attack: 1.211.211.20AberdeenDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepDundee United defence: 1.50Aberdeen defence: 1.431.501.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%+8%−11%−1%
Counter-attacks+186%−66%−64%−43%
Set pieces−29%+42%+4%+3%
Penalties−62%+159%−94%−69%
Headers−14%+25%−50%+12%
Left side+30%−20%−26%−19%
Centre−16%+22%−2%−4%
Right side−10%+23%−13%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdAberdeen concededLeft side+30%+13%Centre−16%−4%Right side−10%−19%Open play−17%−1%Counter-attacks+186%−43%Set pieces−29%+3%Headers−14%+12%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdDundee United concededLeft side−26%+23%Centre−2%+22%Right side−13%−20%Open play−11%+8%Counter-attacks−64%−66%Set pieces+4%+42%Headers−50%+25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

1.17xG1.03
1.76xG against1.00
42%Possession44%
11.8Shots11.2
15.5Shots against12.8
6.0Shots on target2.2
2.5Big chances1.5
17.8Touches in the opposition box20.5
322Passes357
77%Pass accuracy73%
3.0Corners3.8
40%Field tilt42%
27.0Final-third entries26.5
10.0Box entries9.8
16.3Passes per defensive action17.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.391.48
Ahead400.842.15
Behind13.900.00

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.990.96
Ahead0––
Behind391.081.07

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.142–0
16–300.120.401–2
31–450.330.263–0
46–600.120.331–3
61–750.170.191–1
76–900.210.451–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.120–1
16–300.100.200–1
31–450.240.140–0
46–600.180.180–0
61–750.100.300–3
76–900.300.040–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 4Iovu 4Camara 1Esselink 4Keresztes 3Stephenson 2Sevelj 1Thomson 1Sevelj 3Sibbald 2Camara 2Pappoe 1Ferry 2Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 2Camara 1Watters 1Sapsford 3Stirton 1Fatah 2Dolcek 1Sapsford 13-4-3 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 4Jensen 4Milne 3Dorrington 1Devlin 1Knoester 3Shinnie 2Gyamfi 1Devlin 1Nilsen 3Dorrington 1Clarkson 2Shinnie 1Palaversa 1Milanovic 3Keskinen 1Aouchiche 3Polvara 1Keskinen 3Karlsson 1Yengi 3Nisbet 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 May 2025Dundee United2–1AberdeenxG 1.93–1.70
2 March 2025Aberdeen2–2Dundee UnitedxG 1.98–0.53
29 December 2024Dundee United1–0AberdeenxG 2.29–0.91
26 October 2024Aberdeen1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.41–0.38
4 March 2023Dundee United1–3AberdeenxG 2.02–0.78
12 November 2022Aberdeen1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.18–0.32

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 5, Aberdeen won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 13–11 and xG 1.01–1.05 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferry373,326050.040.23
Thomson6597100.200.05
Stephenson302,580530.140.07
Fotheringham7679000.100.02

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet232,0301150.300.07
Morris111,365360.170.17
Sokler121,009210.270.04
Clarkson242,207410.100.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.