Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee United

Wednesday 21 April 2021, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 35 · Half-time 3–0

Kilmarnock Lafferty 32', 35', 43' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals30
xG2.291.15
Non-penalty xG1.501.15
Expected Points2.210.57

Kilmarnock 67%Draw 21%Dundee United 12%

Most likely score 2–1, 15%. Final score 3–0, 7%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%5%9%5%1%10%10%3%7%11%6%2%3%4%2%1%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTTshibola on for Burke, 75'Kabamba on for Lafferty, 76'Meekison on for Hoti, 60'Lafferty 32'Lafferty 35'Lafferty 43' (pen)Kilmarnock 2.29Dundee United 1.1501230153045607590HTTshibola on for Burke, 75'Kabamba on for Lafferty, 76'Meekison on for Hoti, 60'Lafferty 32'Lafferty 35'Lafferty 43' (pen)2.291.15KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

2.29 +1.27xG1.15 +0.22
1.50Non-penalty xG1.15
2.35 +1.40xG on target0.51 −0.39
16 +5.6Shots13 +3.4
5 +1.8Shots on target5 +2.0
2 +1.0Big chances2 +0.9
24 +4Touches in the opposition box16 +1
48% +2Possession52% +5
359 −5Passes400 +34
72% +5Pass accuracy74% +8
61% +11Field tilt39% 0
39 +2Final-third entries36 +4
13 +2.9Box entries11 +1.9
10.5 −4Passes per defensive action11.3 −4
5 −0.1Corners4 −0.1
17 +4Tackles12 −2
7 −4Interceptions7 −4
11 −6Clearances17 −8
4 +1.6Saves2 −2.0
16 +4Fouls21 +8
0 −2.1Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Rossi 39', 0.21 xGBroadfoot 67', 0.08 xGPinnock 46', 0.07 xGLafferty 30', 0.06 xGPower 27', 0.05 xGKabamba 80', 0.05 xGBurke 15', 0.04 xGPower 88', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 90+3', 0.04 xGLafferty 4', 0.03 xGLafferty 6', 0.03 xGPower 51', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 74', 0.03 xGLafferty 32', 0.63 xG, goalLafferty 35', 0.12 xG, goal56%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.84 xG, 1 goal22%0.33 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal7%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Appere 83', 0.38 xGSporle 83', 0.29 xGHarkes 89', 0.07 xGBolton 72', 0.06 xGSporle 83', 0.06 xGHoti 16', 0.05 xGHarkes 74', 0.05 xGAppere 75', 0.05 xGAppere 27', 0.04 xGAppere 51', 0.03 xGSporle 64', 0.03 xGConnolly 12', 0.02 xGMeekison 66', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals65%0.74 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.74 xG, 0 goals20%0.23 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

1.40 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.10 11 shots, 0 goals
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.05 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
32 min (34%) · Kilmarnock 0.84, Dundee United 0.11 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
61 min (66%) · Kilmarnock 1.45, Dundee United 1.04 xG

Line-ups

16225143298619728DoyleMillenBroadfootRossiHaunstrupBurkeDickerPowerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyGoalGoalGoalYellow card75'76'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Tommy Wright1924351723661420273MehmetL. SmithK. SmithConnollyRobsonHarkesFuchsHotiBoltonAppereSporleYellow cardYellow card60'Dundee United 4-3-3Micky Mellon

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 75' Tshibola for Burke
  • 76' Kabamba for Lafferty

Dundee United substitutes

  • 60' Meekison for Hoti

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0100.0441
MillenRB9020.000.6120.26102
BroadfootCB900.080.2820.3180
RossiCB900.210.0100.0447
HaunstrupLB900.000.010−0.0113
BurkeRM750.040.0600.1172
DickerCM900.000.0300.0457
PowerCM900.110.0200.0159
PinnockLM900.070.4440.1531
McKenzieAM900.070.0220.0025
Lafferty ST7631.660.0000.0501
TshibolaMF150.000.0000.0110
KabambaFW140.050.0000.0111

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MehmetGK900.000.0010.0231
L. SmithRB900.000.0100.0435
K. SmithCB900.000.0000.0434
ConnollyCB900.020.0000.03512
RobsonLB900.000.0100.0556
HarkesCM900.120.0410.0161
FuchsCM900.000.0110.0678
Hoti CM600.050.011−0.0100
BoltonRW900.060.0300.0621
AppereST900.500.1620.0221
Sporle LW900.380.0620.0954
MeekisonMF300.020.1210.1760

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Millen and Lafferty: 4 passesBroadfoot and Rossi: 4 passesRossi and Dicker: 4 passesRossi and Power: 4 passesRossi and Pinnock: 4 passesDicker and McKenzie: 4 passesMcKenzie and Lafferty: 4 passesDicker and Pinnock: 5 passesDoyle and Broadfoot: 6 passesDoyle and Lafferty: 6 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 6 passesBurke and McKenzie: 6 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 7 passesRossi and Haunstrup: 7 passesHaunstrup and Power: 7 passesDicker and Power: 8 passesMillen and Burke: 10 passesMillen and McKenzie: 11 passesBroadfoot and Burke: 11 passesBurke and Power: 11 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 12 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 13 passesBroadfoot and Power: 15 passesMillen and Power: 23 passesDoyle: 13 completed passesMillen: 31 completed passesBroadfoot: 32 completed passesRossi: 17 completed passesHaunstrup: 25 completed passesBurke: 21 completed passesDicker: 27 completed passesPower: 40 completed passesPinnock: 15 completed passesMcKenzie: 12 completed passesLafferty: 4 completed passes16225143298619728DoyleMillenBroadfootRossiHaunstrupBurkeDickerPowerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Dundee United

L. Smith and Hoti: 4 passesConnolly and Hoti: 4 passesFuchs and Appere: 4 passesHarkes and Hoti: 4 passesHarkes and Sporle: 4 passesHoti and Appere: 4 passesHoti and Sporle: 4 passesAppere and Sporle: 4 passesL. Smith and Bolton: 5 passesFuchs and Hoti: 5 passesFuchs and Sporle: 6 passesL. Smith and K. Smith: 7 passesConnolly and K. Smith: 7 passesRobson and Sporle: 7 passesFuchs and Harkes: 7 passesHarkes and Bolton: 7 passesConnolly and Robson: 9 passesRobson and Hoti: 9 passesRobson and Fuchs: 10 passesHarkes and Appere: 10 passesL. Smith and Fuchs: 11 passesL. Smith and Harkes: 17 passesMehmet: 7 completed passesL. Smith: 27 completed passesConnolly: 16 completed passesK. Smith: 14 completed passesRobson: 26 completed passesFuchs: 24 completed passesHarkes: 29 completed passesHoti: 19 completed passesBolton: 9 completed passesAppere: 15 completed passesSporle: 15 completed passes1925431766231420273MehmetL. SmithConnollyK. SmithRobsonFuchsHarkesHotiBoltonAppereSporleStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MillenPower13
PowerMillen13
HaunstrupPinnock11
HaunstrupDicker10
PowerBurke9

Dundee United

FromToPasses
L. SmithHarkes10
L. SmithFuchs9
FuchsL. Smith9
HarkesL. Smith8
RobsonFuchs7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−2.53−2.65−2.15−1.37+0.67+0.86−2.86−2.05+0.78+2.77+3.15−0.17+1.73−0.72−1.74+1.48+4.69+4.73+0.62+0.16+4.54+2.58+5.82+1.11+0.72+1.11+0.60−0.76−6.81−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Dundee United

4−1.16−0.512+4.510+2.413+6.35−2.34−3.211+2.87+1.53−2.15+0.75−0.78+2.74−0.22−1.62−0.71−1.95+1.13+0.70−1.41+0.11−0.820.01+0.40−0.21+0.50−0.41+0.512−5.23−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.040.010.030.010.010.030.010.030.010.120.040.040.010.05−0.010.020.01−0.020.03−0.010.180.210.16LessMore

Dundee United

0.020.010.020.010.020.030.020.010.060.020.040.060.04−0.010.020.030.060.050.010.04−0.04−0.030.020.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.95 → 0.99Dundee United0.92 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27 → 1.26Dundee United1.32 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th38%31%−7
Bottom15%5%−10
Ross County
11th41%49%+8
Bottom19%23%+4
Hamilton Academical
11th22%20%−2
Bottom66%73%+7

From the forecast before the match (21 April 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.201.00
Win40%30%
Expected Points1.491.20
Clean sheet37%30%

Kilmarnock 40%Draw 30%Dundee United 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%1%12%10%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 April 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
11th38%31%41%44%
Bottom15%5%17%27%
Ross County
11th41%49%37%33%
Bottom19%23%19%14%
Hamilton Academical
11th22%20%22%23%
Bottom66%73%65%58%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–210 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.69–1.07
  2. W4–120 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.33
  3. L2–36 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.67–1.21
  4. D1–127 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.25–1.02
  5. L0–120 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  6. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47

Dundee United

  1. W1–010 AprHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.32–2.76
  2. W1–020 MarAberdeen (H)xG 0.46–0.47
  3. D0–07 MarCeltic (H)xG 0.51–1.77
  4. D1–127 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 1.02–1.25
  5. L1–421 FebRangers (A)xG 1.04–3.26
  6. W3–013 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.93–0.93

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position11th7th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠5–⁠2110–⁠12–⁠12
Points29 (0.85 per game)42 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game1.160.96
Goals35–⁠4930–⁠43
xG per game1.02–⁠1.320.93–⁠1.56
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.20–⁠1.321.35, 0.90–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game0.59, 0.83–⁠1.321.12, 0.95–⁠1.60
ManagerTommy Wright (6)Micky Mellon (34)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.95, 8thDundee United0.92, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27, 8thDundee United1.32, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock attack: 0.95Dundee United attack: 0.920.950.92Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock defence: 1.27Dundee United defence: 1.321.321.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−28%+1%−19%+32%
Counter-attacks−89%−27%+77%+82%
Set pieces+1%+26%−42%+19%
Penalties+3%−14%−66%−31%
Headers−15%+5%−56%+29%
Left side−16%+12%+13%+45%
Centre−29%+3%−40%+14%
Right side−15%+6%−22%+44%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−16%+44%Centre−29%+14%Right side−15%+45%Open play−28%+32%Counter-attacks−89%+82%Set pieces+1%+19%Headers−15%+29%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+13%+6%Centre−40%+3%Right side−22%+12%Open play−19%+1%Counter-attacks+77%−27%Set pieces−42%+26%Headers−56%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.02xG0.93
1.32xG against1.56
46%Possession47%
10.4Shots9.6
13.1Shots against16.1
3.2Shots on target3.0
1.0Big chances1.1
19.5Touches in the opposition box15.2
364Passes366
68%Pass accuracy65%
5.1Corners4.1
50%Field tilt39%
36.6Final-third entries31.5
10.1Box entries9.1
14.4Passes per defensive action15.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.941.12
Ahead191.041.70
Behind291.121.36

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.831.27
Ahead201.081.46
Behind231.002.25

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.156–6
16–300.130.216–9
31–450.180.186–5
46–600.210.217–10
61–750.210.265–8
76–900.180.325–11

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.145–3
16–300.190.185–9
31–450.120.354–9
46–600.150.245–4
61–750.070.372–9
76–900.240.279–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTRogers 24Doyle 9Eastwood 1McGowan 15Millen 14Rossi 4Broadfoot 27Dikamona 9Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 7Haunstrup 17Waters 16Brophy 1Burke 24McKenzie 4Pinnock 2Power 20McKenzie 2Dabo 1Tshibola 20Dicker 19Mulumbu 4McKenzie 11Pinnock 10Kiltie 9Kabamba 21Brophy 6Whitehall 5Kiltie 9Power 7Lafferty 44-4-2 in 11 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-1-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSiegrist 32Mehmet 2L. Smith 17Neilson 6Bolton 4Edwards 20Connolly 16Butcher 1Reynolds 30Robson 1Robson 22Butcher 3Powers 3Bolton 9L. Smith 7Fuchs 3Butcher 16Clark 7Powers 2Harkes 21Pawlett 10Fuchs 9Sporle 9Robson 8Bolton 4McNulty 13Clark 13Chalmers 1Shankland 26Appere 6Butcher 54-4-2 in 11 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 3-5-2 (10), 4-1-4-1 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 February 2021Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.25–1.02
23 December 2020Dundee United2–0KilmarnockxG 0.93–0.65
29 August 2020Kilmarnock4–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.15–1.04

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Dundee United won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–3 and xG 1.02–1.00 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Whitehall5465200.400.04
Burke252,226930.230.21
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba212,026520.280.03

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland272,470730.290.11
Clark231,937810.270.13
Sporle131,094420.190.13
Pawlett141,286110.120.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.