Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–2 Hearts

Sunday 9 October 2022, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 10 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 6,651

Kilmarnock Stokes 47', Lafferty 59'

Hearts Humphrys 62', Atkinson 90+4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals22
xG1.681.17
Expected Points1.731.00

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 27%Hearts 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 2–2, 7%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%6%4%1%9%7%2%8%7%2%4%6%4%1%1%2%1%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTShaw on for Jones, 66'Doidge on for Lafferty, 67'Wright on for Stokes, 78'Lyons on for Alston and Alebiosu on for McKenzie, 87'Grant on for Kiomourtzoglou, 70'Neilson on for Halliday, 87'Stokes 47'Lafferty 59'Humphrys 62'Atkinson 90+4'Kilmarnock 1.68Hearts 1.1700.511.520153045607590HTShaw on for Jones, 66'Doidge on for Lafferty, 67'Wright on for Stokes, 78'Lyons on for Alston and Alebiosu on for McKenzie, 87'Grant on for Kiomourtzoglou, 70'Neilson on for Halliday, 87'Stokes 47'Lafferty 59'Humphrys 62'Atkinson 90+4'1.681.17KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

1.68 +0.93xG1.17 −0.15
1.54 +1.01xG on target1.20 0.00
14 +3Shots11 −1
6 +3.7Shots on target5 +0.6
4 +3.2Big chances2 −0.1
25 +12Touches in the opposition box24 +6
39% −4Possession61% +12
308 −9Passes498 +102
66% −1Pass accuracy78% +6
45% +4Field tilt55% +8
38 +8Final-third entries33 −2
9 +0.2Box entries14 +3.4
12.7 −2Passes per defensive action10.2 −6
6 +1.4Corners3 −1.4
17 +1Tackles20 +2
18 +6.2Interceptions8 −0.1
11 −8Clearances12 −4
3 −0.9Saves4 +0.6
21 +7Fouls13 +2
2 −0.1Offsides1 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Alston 42', 0.26 xGAlston 28', 0.18 xGPower 29', 0.14 xGTaylor 53', 0.12 xGArmstrong 7', 0.11 xGMcKenzie 39', 0.11 xGMayo 54', 0.09 xGTaylor 30', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 43', 0.05 xGJones 41', 0.04 xGJones 54', 0.04 xGShaw 69', 0.04 xGStokes 47', 0.32 xG, goalLafferty 59', 0.12 xG, goal19%0.32 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.32 xG, 1 goal55%0.93 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal15%0.26 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 0 goals10%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Humphrys 21', 0.20 xGMcKay 2', 0.18 xGShankland 18', 0.14 xGHumphrys 55', 0.09 xGShankland 80', 0.09 xGSnodgrass 32', 0.07 xGKingsley 9', 0.04 xGForrest 5', 0.02 xGShankland 77', 0.02 xGHumphrys 62', 0.26 xG, goalAtkinson 90+4', 0.04 xG, goal10%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals53%0.61 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.61 xG, 0 goals24%0.28 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal10%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

0.90 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.80 6 shots, 1 goal
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.09 1 shot, 0 goals
0.74 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.28 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
48 min (51%) · Kilmarnock 1.26, Hearts 0.66 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
47 min (49%) · Kilmarnock 0.41, Hearts 0.51 xG

Line-ups

125611841033728HemmingMayoTaylorStokesArmstrongAlstonPowerJonesChriseneMcKenzieLaffertyGoalYellow cardGoal78'87'66'87'67'Kilmarnock 3-5-1-1Derek McInnes112319168772917189GordonAtkinsonKingsleyCochraneHallidayKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassHumphrysForrestMcKayShanklandGoalYellow cardGoal87'70'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 66' Shaw for Jones
  • 67' Doidge for Lafferty · yellow card 82'
  • 78' Wright for Stokes
  • 87' Lyons for Alston
  • 87' Alebiosu for McKenzie

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Grant for Kiomourtzoglou
  • 87' Neilson for Halliday

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0661
MayoCB900.090.0100.0556
TaylorCB900.180.0000.0236
StokesCB7810.320.0710.0932
Armstrong RWB900.110.2740.20109
AlstonCM870.440.0100.0233
PowerCM900.140.0300.0344
JonesCM660.080.2020.2762
ChriseneLWB900.000.0410.0975
McKenzieAM870.150.031−0.0235
LaffertyST6710.120.000−0.0303
ShawFW240.040.000−0.0111
Doidge FW230.000.0000.0010
WrightDF120.000.0000.0001
LyonsMF30.000.000−0.0100
AlebiosuMF30.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0121
AtkinsonRB9010.040.0510.0949
Kingsley CB900.040.0100.0773
CochraneCB900.000.0100.1065
HallidayLB870.000.0300.0743
KiomourtzoglouDM700.000.1200.0427
SnodgrassDM9010.070.1940.0854
HumphrysRW9010.550.0710.1110
ForrestAM900.020.1000.1463
McKayLW900.180.2410.2574
ShanklandST900.260.2010.1012
GrantMF200.000.0300.0540
NeilsonDF30.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Taylor and Mayo: 3 passesTaylor and Armstrong: 3 passesTaylor and Chrisene: 3 passesArmstrong and Alston: 3 passesArmstrong and McKenzie: 3 passesPower and Alston: 3 passesAlston and Lafferty: 3 passesTaylor and Power: 4 passesStokes and Mayo: 4 passesStokes and McKenzie: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesChrisene and McKenzie: 4 passesAlston and McKenzie: 4 passesHemming and Lafferty: 5 passesStokes and Lafferty: 5 passesArmstrong and Jones: 5 passesPower and Jones: 5 passesJones and Lafferty: 5 passesPower and Lafferty: 6 passesJones and McKenzie: 6 passesHemming and Stokes: 8 passesStokes and Chrisene: 8 passesStokes and Power: 8 passesMayo and Power: 10 passesChrisene and Power: 10 passesChrisene and Jones: 13 passesHemming: 11 completed passesTaylor: 10 completed passesStokes: 26 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesArmstrong: 9 completed passesChrisene: 24 completed passesPower: 25 completed passesJones: 16 completed passesAlston: 10 completed passesMcKenzie: 14 completed passesLafferty: 10 completed passes156211334108728HemmingTaylorStokesMayoArmstrongChrisenePowerJonesAlstonMcKenzieLaffertyStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Forrest and Shankland: 5 passesAtkinson and Humphrys: 6 passesAtkinson and Forrest: 6 passesAtkinson and McKay: 6 passesCochrane and Shankland: 6 passesKiomourtzoglou and Snodgrass: 6 passesForrest and McKay: 6 passesSnodgrass and Humphrys: 7 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 7 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 8 passesKingsley and McKay: 8 passesHalliday and Forrest: 8 passesGordon and Cochrane: 9 passesKingsley and Kiomourtzoglou: 9 passesAtkinson and Kiomourtzoglou: 10 passesCochrane and Kiomourtzoglou: 10 passesHalliday and McKay: 10 passesGordon and Kingsley: 11 passesAtkinson and Snodgrass: 12 passesCochrane and McKay: 12 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 12 passesHalliday and Snodgrass: 14 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 16 passesCochrane and Halliday: 16 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 16 passesAtkinson and Kingsley: 21 passesGordon: 22 completed passesAtkinson: 44 completed passesKingsley: 39 completed passesCochrane: 45 completed passesHalliday: 32 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 22 completed passesSnodgrass: 43 completed passesHumphrys: 8 completed passesForrest: 14 completed passesMcKay: 31 completed passesShankland: 16 completed passes112319168772917189GordonAtkinsonKingsleyCochraneHallidayKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassHumphrysForrestMcKayShanklandStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerMayo9
ChrisenePower9
ChriseneJones8
StokesPower6
StokesHemming6

Hearts

FromToPasses
SnodgrassCochrane15
CochraneKingsley15
AtkinsonKingsley15
HallidaySnodgrass12
CochraneHalliday12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−3.710+3.13−5.15−1.07+1.25−1.210+2.65−1.19+1.09+2.48+3.17+3.13−1.49+4.04−0.84+0.66+3.75+1.15+0.44+1.60−1.10−0.62+0.17+4.62+0.82+1.21+0.80−0.70−0.75−9.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hearts

3−2.44−2.62−3.68+5.110+1.12−4.15−3.010+3.59+4.08+2.16+3.55−0.87+1.42−2.44+0.430.02−0.92−3.12−0.91−0.11+0.40−1.41−1.10−0.40−0.40−0.80−0.21+0.97−4.22−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.060.010.010.020.010.010.030.010.020.030.010.030.070.020.010.070.030.08−0.010.010.030.030.18LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.020.020.070.020.030.020.010.030.040.010.080.020.020.080.06−0.010.020.040.01−0.060.140.030.200.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.94 → 0.96Hearts1.20 → 1.20Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.35Hearts1.24 → 1.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six11%9%−2
11th18%19%+1
Bottom18%18%0
Hearts
Top six79%80%+1
11th1%1%0
Ross County
Top six3%3%0
11th25%25%0
Bottom37%38%+1
Dundee United
Top six5%5%0
11th23%22%−1
Bottom24%24%0

From the forecast before the match (9 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.161.24
Win34%38%
Expected Points1.301.41
Clean sheet29%31%

Kilmarnock 34%Draw 29%Hearts 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%7%3%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
Top six11%18%9%7%
11th18%14%19%21%
Bottom18%12%18%23%
Hearts
Top six79%70%80%87%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Ross County
Top six3%3%3%3%
11th25%25%25%25%
Bottom37%39%38%35%
Dundee United
Top six5%6%5%4%
11th23%24%22%22%
Bottom24%25%24%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–15 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.87
  2. L1–41 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–2.33
  3. L0–117 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.11–0.83
  4. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44
  5. W2–127 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.52–0.70
  6. L0–120 AugRoss County (A)xG 0.70–0.65

Hearts

  1. L0–41 OctRangers (H)xG 0.41–1.85
  2. W3–018 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.83
  3. L0–13 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.69–1.19
  4. W3–228 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.74–0.77
  5. L0–221 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.55
  6. W4–114 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.80–1.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position11th6th
Played98
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠64–⁠1–⁠3
Points7 (0.78 per game)13 (1.62 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.15
Goals6–⁠1713–⁠12
xG per game0.75–⁠1.371.32–⁠1.68
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.18–⁠1.322.25, 1.68–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.41–⁠1.401.00, 0.96–⁠2.02
ManagerDerek McInnes (9)Robbie Neilson (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.94, 9thHearts1.20, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36, 9thHearts1.24, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 0.94Hearts attack: 1.201.200.94HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.36Hearts defence: 1.241.361.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−40%−6%+20%+50%
Counter-attacks−53%−40%−83%−37%
Set pieces−18%+74%−26%+4%
Penalties−100%−28%−19%−19%
Headers−16%−20%−21%+24%
Left side−24%−2%−5%+41%
Centre−38%+14%+15%+30%
Right side−43%+16%average+41%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−24%+41%Centre−38%+30%Right side−43%+41%Open play−40%+50%Counter-attacks−53%−37%Set pieces−18%+4%Headers−16%+24%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−5%+16%Centre+15%+14%Right sideaverage−2%Open play+20%−6%Counter-attacks−83%−40%Set pieces−26%+74%Headers−21%−20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

0.75xG1.32
1.37xG against1.68
43%Possession49%
10.8Shots11.8
14.2Shots against14.4
2.3Shots on target4.4
0.8Big chances2.1
13.5Touches in the opposition box18.5
317Passes396
67%Pass accuracy72%
4.6Corners4.4
41%Field tilt46%
30.2Final-third entries35.0
8.8Box entries10.6
15.0Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level310.651.26
Ahead101.290.70
Behind490.701.58

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level232.521.23
Ahead371.271.94
Behind300.481.72

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.251–3
16–300.100.211–3
31–450.180.260–4
46–600.230.151–1
61–750.070.171–1
76–900.110.342–5

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.161–3
16–300.210.223–2
31–450.260.241–0
46–600.240.273–1
61–750.120.341–1
76–900.300.454–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTWalker 6Hemming 3Alebiosu 6Mayo 2Taylor 1Taylor 5Wright 4Mayo 6Dorsett 2Stokes 1Chrisene 4McInroy 2Polworth 1Polworth 4McKenzie 2Armstrong 1Power 7Donnelly 2Alston 1Taylor 2Armstrong 2Wright 2Power 2Shaw 2Chrisene 1Shaw 3Lafferty 2McKenzie 2Lafferty 4Shaw 2Doidge 24-2-3-1 in 2 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 7Stewart 1Smith 5Sibbick 2Atkinson 1Neilson 4Halkett 3Sibbick 1Rowles 5Kingsley 3Cochrane 7Halliday 1Haring 4Halliday 3Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 5Grant 2Smith 1Forrest 4McKay 2Humphrys 1Boyce 3Atkinson 2Kiomourtzoglou 1McKay 3Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 5Humphrys 1Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shaw7578000.260.02
Polworth6531020.060.11
Power9738000.030.11
McKenzie6590000.060.03

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland5481420.570.03
Forrest6463300.370.07
McKay6534210.120.18
Smith6543000.090.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.