Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 2–3 St. Johnstone

Saturday 30 January 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 25 · Half-time 2–0

Kilmarnock Burke 5', Tshibola 32'

St. Johnstone Melamed 53', Davidson 68', McCann 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Goals23
xG1.172.14
Expected Points0.622.13

Kilmarnock 13%Draw 24%St. Johnstone 63%

Most likely score 1–2, 18%. Final score 2–3, 5%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%10%6%2%1%11%10%3%5%11%5%2%2%3%2%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWhitehall on for Oakley, 89'May on for Kane, 63'Conway on for Melamed, 83'Bryson on for Wotherspoon, 89'Burke 5'Tshibola 32'Melamed 53'Davidson 68'McCann 72'St. Johnstone 2.14Kilmarnock 1.1701230153045607590HTWhitehall on for Oakley, 89'May on for Kane, 63'Conway on for Melamed, 83'Bryson on for Wotherspoon, 89'Burke 5'Tshibola 32'Melamed 53'Davidson 68'McCann 72'2.141.17KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.17 +0.19xG2.14 +0.91
1.04 +0.07xG on target2.40 +1.58
13 +3.2Shots14 +1.4
5 +2.0Shots on target5 +1.9
1 0.0Big chances2 +0.6
21 +4Touches in the opposition box38 +17
42% −4Possession58% +12
329 −34Passes443 +77
61% −8Pass accuracy72% +6
34% −13Field tilt66% +12
35 −2Final-third entries45 +8
12 +3.1Box entries12 +2.3
15.2 0Passes per defensive action7.8 −7
2 −2.8Corners12 +7.8
17 +4Tackles17 +1
10 −1Interceptions14 +2
34 +17Clearances23 +4
2 −0.2Saves3 +1.4
9 −3Fouls10 −3
0 −2.3Offsides2 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 82', 0.10 xGKabamba 36', 0.07 xGBurke 43', 0.07 xGKabamba 31', 0.06 xGBurke 45', 0.06 xGRossi 88', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 66', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 71', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 14', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 51', 0.03 xGWhitehall 90+2', 0.02 xGTshibola 32', 0.53 xG, goalBurke 5', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals74%0.86 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.86 xG, 1 goal11%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal11%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Melamed 38', 0.10 xGDavidson 2', 0.09 xGMelamed 25', 0.08 xGMcCann 1', 0.06 xGKane 21', 0.06 xGDavidson 26', 0.05 xGDavidson 26', 0.05 xGMcCann 67', 0.04 xGWotherspoon 15', 0.03 xGMcCann 49', 0.03 xGKerr 64', 0.03 xGDavidson 68', 0.87 xG, goalMelamed 53', 0.59 xG, goalMcCann 72', 0.06 xG, goal45%0.95 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.95 xG, 1 goal39%0.83 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.83 xG, 1 goal9%0.19 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals8%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

1.17 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.97 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.10 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Kilmarnock 0.10, St. Johnstone 0.21 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
63 min (68%) · Kilmarnock 0.88, St. Johnstone 1.93 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
20 min (22%) · Kilmarnock 0.18, St. Johnstone 0.00 xG

Line-ups

23224143296277911RogersMillenDikamonaRossiHaunstrupBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieOakleyKabambaGoalYellow cardGoal89'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer156419818317910ClarkKerrGordonMcCartRooneyDavidsonMcCannTanserMelamedKaneWotherspoonYellow cardGoalGoalGoal83'63'89'St. Johnstone 3-4-3Callum Davidson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 89' Whitehall for Oakley

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 63' May for Kane
  • 83' Conway for Melamed
  • 89' Bryson for Wotherspoon

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0110
MillenRB900.000.1210.17114
DikamonaCB900.000.0000.03218
RossiCB900.060.0000.02216
HaunstrupLB900.000.1620.21117
BurkeRM9010.180.0310.1062
Power CM900.000.0200.0328
TshibolaCM9010.530.010−0.0117
McKenzieLM900.140.0720.1661
OakleyST890.000.0630.0021
KabambaST9020.240.0330.1202
WhitehallFW10.020.000––0

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0110
KerrCB900.030.4310.14116
GordonCB900.000.0000.05212
McCart CB900.000.0100.1089
RooneyRWB900.000.0300.0994
DavidsonCM9011.050.0200.0145
McCannCM9010.190.0900.1363
TanserLWB900.000.3200.30145
MelamedRW83120.770.823−0.0103
KaneST6310.060.6630.1202
WotherspoonLW890.030.6430.2785
MayFW270.000.0600.0401
ConwayFW70.000.0100.0011
BrysonMF10.000.000−0.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Rogers and Rossi: 4 passesMillen and Rossi: 4 passesDikamona and Rossi: 4 passesRossi and McKenzie: 4 passesMillen and Dikamona: 5 passesMillen and Oakley: 5 passesBurke and Kabamba: 5 passesPower and Tshibola: 6 passesMcKenzie and Oakley: 6 passesHaunstrup and Kabamba: 7 passesMillen and Burke: 8 passesRossi and Haunstrup: 8 passesHaunstrup and Oakley: 8 passesBurke and Power: 8 passesPower and McKenzie: 8 passesMillen and Tshibola: 12 passesHaunstrup and Power: 13 passesMillen and Power: 15 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 15 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 16 passesRogers: 12 completed passesMillen: 35 completed passesDikamona: 13 completed passesRossi: 17 completed passesHaunstrup: 36 completed passesBurke: 10 completed passesPower: 33 completed passesTshibola: 26 completed passesMcKenzie: 16 completed passesKabamba: 10 completed passesOakley: 9 completed passes23224143296277119RogersMillenDikamonaRossiHaunstrupBurkePowerTshibolaMcKenzieKabambaOakleyStarters until 89' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Johnstone

Tanser and McCann: 5 passesMcCann and Melamed: 5 passesClark and Gordon: 6 passesClark and McCart: 6 passesClark and Tanser: 6 passesKerr and McCann: 6 passesRooney and Davidson: 6 passesDavidson and McCann: 6 passesDavidson and Wotherspoon: 6 passesKerr and Wotherspoon: 7 passesGordon and Davidson: 7 passesRooney and McCann: 7 passesKane and Wotherspoon: 7 passesKerr and Rooney: 8 passesMcCart and McCann: 8 passesMcCart and Wotherspoon: 8 passesTanser and Davidson: 8 passesKerr and Davidson: 9 passesMcCart and Davidson: 9 passesTanser and Kane: 10 passesMcCart and Tanser: 11 passesTanser and Wotherspoon: 16 passesMcCann and Wotherspoon: 18 passesGordon and McCart: 19 passesClark: 13 completed passesKerr: 25 completed passesGordon: 27 completed passesMcCart: 37 completed passesRooney: 17 completed passesTanser: 33 completed passesDavidson: 33 completed passesMcCann: 34 completed passesMelamed: 5 completed passesKane: 12 completed passesWotherspoon: 27 completed passes156419381817910ClarkKerrGordonMcCartRooneyTanserDavidsonMcCannMelamedKaneWotherspoonStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupMcKenzie11
PowerHaunstrup11
MillenPower10
TshibolaMillen9
HaunstrupTshibola8

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
McCannWotherspoon13
TanserWotherspoon12
McCartGordon12
WotherspoonTanser11
GordonMcCart10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

8+4.711+5.225+12.27−0.112+5.510+3.59+2.26−0.318+9.65−3.45+1.03−2.54−0.16+1.26+0.74+0.83−0.60−2.82−1.26+2.11−1.03+1.22+0.42+0.70−1.80−0.92+1.80−0.80−0.51+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

St. Johnstone

3−1.27+2.715+2.811+6.43−2.310+0.89+1.15−1.65−3.59+0.812+5.88+1.64−1.77+0.414+7.82−3.04−0.36+3.23−0.67+2.13+0.40−2.03+1.51−0.830.00−1.40−0.31+0.62+1.52+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.040.020.030.060.050.030.01−0.010.070.070.030.020.010.020.050.040.080.14LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.010.020.010.030.030.030.020.010.060.060.050.100.020.020.050.040.030.09−0.010.120.06−0.130.030.47LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackKilmarnock0.94 → 0.96St. Johnstone1.05 → 1.10Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.20 → 1.25St. Johnstone1.09 → 1.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six14%7%−7
11th8%12%+4
Bottom2%3%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six10%18%+8
11th4%2%−2
Bottom1%<1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six58%57%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Expected goals0.941.06
Win31%37%
Expected Points1.251.43
Clean sheet35%39%

Kilmarnock 31%Draw 32%St. Johnstone 37%

Most likely score 0–0, 14%. Both sides score 40%.

St. Johnstone goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%3%7%3%6%6%3%1%2%2%1%14%14%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Kilmarnock
Top six14%24%12%7%
11th8%3%7%12%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%3%6%18%
11th4%8%4%2%
Bottom1%3%1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six58%56%61%57%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–227 JanLivingston (A)xG 0.59–1.10
  2. L0–216 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.64–0.68
  3. W2–09 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.50–0.43
  4. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52
  5. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40
  6. L1–226 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.68

St. Johnstone

  1. D0–027 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.10
  2. W1–016 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.06–0.30
  3. D2–212 JanDundee United (A)xG 2.25–0.82
  4. D1–12 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.57–0.81
  5. D0–030 DecHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.22–0.84
  6. L1–226 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.34

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
Position8th9th
Played2425
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠145–⁠9–⁠11
Points24 (1.00 per game)24 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game1.181.51
Goals24–⁠3022–⁠33
xG per game0.98–⁠1.291.23–⁠0.95
Home: points, xG per game1.27, 1.14–⁠1.261.00, 1.10–⁠0.80
Away: points, xG per game0.77, 0.85–⁠1.310.92, 1.37–⁠1.11
ManagerAlex Dyer (24)Callum Davidson (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackKilmarnock0.94, 10thSt. Johnstone1.05, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.20, 7thSt. Johnstone1.09, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 0.94St. Johnstone attack: 1.051.050.94St. JohnstoneKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.20St. Johnstone defence: 1.091.201.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%−3%−4%−25%
Counter-attacks−86%−75%+72%−80%
Set pieces−3%+20%−4%−19%
Penalties+17%−6%−33%−33%
Headers−22%+5%+8%−20%
Left side−17%+10%+15%−16%
Centre−35%−5%−18%−26%
Right side−28%average+15%−35%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−17%−35%Centre−35%−26%Right side−28%−16%Open play−36%−25%Counter-attacks−86%−80%Set pieces−3%−19%Headers−22%−20%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+15%averageCentre−18%−5%Right side+15%+10%Open play−4%−3%Counter-attacks+72%−75%Set pieces−4%+20%Headers+8%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Johnstone

0.98xG1.23
1.29xG against0.95
46%Possession46%
9.8Shots12.6
13.5Shots against9.8
3.0Shots on target3.1
1.0Big chances1.4
17.1Touches in the opposition box20.6
364Passes366
69%Pass accuracy66%
4.8Corners4.2
47%Field tilt53%
36.7Final-third entries36.8
8.9Box entries9.7
14.8Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.971.17
Ahead201.071.48
Behind260.951.32

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.130.98
Ahead101.551.13
Behind201.360.76

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.163–4
16–300.150.234–6
31–450.180.155–2
46–600.210.165–5
61–750.200.244–3
76–900.140.353–10

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.132–3
16–300.150.143–4
31–450.190.176–10
46–600.190.203–5
61–750.270.103–2
76–900.290.215–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 23Eastwood 1McGowan 11Millen 9Rossi 3Broadfoot 22Rossi 1Findlay 21Dikamona 4Waters 16Haunstrup 7Tshibola 1Power 19Kabamba 5Burke 2Dicker 13McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 20Mulumbu 3Pinnock 1Burke 16McKenzie 2Pinnock 2Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 3Kiltie 9McKenzie 7Pinnock 54-3-3 in 9 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (7), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTClark 17Parish 8Kerr 17Rooney 7Craig 2Gordon 24McCart 24McNamara 20Rooney 3Kerr 1McCann 18Bryson 6McNamara 2Davidson 11Craig 7Wotherspoon 4Tanser 19Booth 6Conway 13McCann 2Melamed 2Wotherspoon 15O'Halloran 10May 3May 10Hendry 7Kane 63-4-2-1 in 15 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (15), 3-4-3 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-1-2-2-1 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 November 2020St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 0.61–0.46
15 August 2020Kilmarnock1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.86–1.65

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, St. Johnstone won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–3 and xG 0.66–1.13 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke191,644630.240.23
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba171,579500.290.02
Pinnock8803030.050.22

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May131,282530.460.16
Kane8778400.480.07
Conway151,233320.260.23
Hendry8691000.320.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.