Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

St. Mirren 0–2 Hearts

Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 28 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Greg Aitken · Attendance 5,767

St. Mirren Ronan sent off 22'

Hearts Simms 64', Devlin 67'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHearts
Goals02
xG0.113.13
Expected Points0.052.91

St. Mirren <1%Draw 4%Hearts 96%

Most likely score 0–3, 23%. Final score 0–2, 20%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+3%10%10%6%1%2%3%2%1%20%23%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTRonan (St. Mirren), red card 22'Main on for Greive and Flynn on for Kiltie, 63'Brophy on for Power, 69'Ginnelly on for Mackay-Steven and Simms on for Woodburn, 55'Cochrane on for Atkinson, 56'Haring on for Devlin and Halliday on for Kingsley, 69'Simms 64'Devlin 67'Hearts 3.13St. Mirren 0.11012340153045607590HTRonan (St. Mirren), red card 22'Main on for Greive and Flynn on for Kiltie, 63'Brophy on for Power, 69'Ginnelly on for Mackay-Steven and Simms on for Woodburn, 55'Cochrane on for Atkinson, 56'Haring on for Devlin and Halliday on for Kingsley, 69'Simms 64'Devlin 67'3.130.11St. MirrenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHearts

0.11 −0.81xG3.13 +1.76
0.00 −0.87xG on target2.78 +1.35
5 −6Shots20 +7
0 −3.8Shots on target8 +3.4
0 −0.9Big chances6 +4.2
11 −6Touches in the opposition box30 +7
37% −9Possession63% +8
249 −96Passes436 −3
58% −9Pass accuracy79% +4
19% −24Field tilt81% +28
16 −14Final-third entries56 +13
4 −5.0Box entries12 +0.1
18.6 +3Passes per defensive action14.9 +2
8 +2.8Corners9 +3.4
18 +5Tackles14 −1
8 −1.3Interceptions3 −5.4
19 −1Clearances16 −1
7 +3.1Saves0 −4.0
5 −6Fouls11 −1
3 +0.3Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Tait 34', 0.05 xGShaughnessy 40', 0.03 xGGogic 89', 0.02 xGGogic 34', 0.01 xGJones 84', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.09 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals8%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Simms 64', 0.44 xGBoyce 53', 0.38 xGBoyce 10', 0.26 xGBoyce 42', 0.22 xGDevlin 53', 0.22 xGBoyce 58', 0.22 xGBoyce 8', 0.19 xGSimms 67', 0.16 xGWoodburn 15', 0.14 xGSimms 75', 0.12 xGBoyce 3', 0.10 xGGinnelly 79', 0.10 xGWoodburn 24', 0.03 xGHalkett 51', 0.03 xGMcKay 90', 0.03 xGKingsley 31', 0.02 xGHalkett 58', 0.02 xGBoyce 88', 0.02 xGDevlin 67', 0.22 xG, goalSimms 64', 0.20 xG, goal37%1.16 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.16 xG, 1 goal56%1.75 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.75 xG, 1 goal5%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHearts

0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsOpen play2.84 17 shots, 2 goals
0.10 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.28 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
64 min (71%) · St. Mirren 0.09, Hearts 2.48 xG
Hearts ahead
26 min (29%) · St. Mirren 0.03, Hearts 0.65 xG

Line-ups

12241826131143721AlnwickFraserShaughnessyDunneTaitPowerGogicKiltieRonanJonesGreiveYellow cardYellow cardSent off69'63'63'St. Mirren 4-2-3-1Stephen Robinson14193126141191018GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleyAtkinsonBaningimeDevlinMackay-StevenWoodburnBoyceMcKayYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card69'56'69'55'55'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 63' Flynn for Kiltie
  • 63' Main for Greive
  • 69' Brophy for Power

Hearts substitutes

  • 55' Simms for Woodburn · goal 64'
  • 55' Ginnelly for Mackay-Steven
  • 56' Cochrane for Atkinson
  • 69' Halliday for Kingsley
  • 69' Haring for Devlin · yellow card 86'

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0782
FraserRB900.000.0000.0347
ShaughnessyCB900.030.010−0.06211
DunneCB900.000.0100.0524
Tait LB900.050.010−0.1213
Power DM690.000.0000.0106
GogicDM900.030.000−0.0109
KiltieRW630.000.0000.0001
Ronan AM220.000.0000.0220
JonesLW900.010.1830.0453
GreiveST630.000.000−0.0101
FlynnMF270.000.0300.0531
MainFW270.000.0000.0000
BrophyFW210.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0341
SouttarCB900.000.0210.16125
Halkett CB900.060.0110.0765
KingsleyCB690.020.1310.18103
Atkinson RWB560.000.0300.0324
BaningimeCM900.000.2610.0321
Devlin CM6910.440.0700.0202
Mackay-StevenLWB550.000.0620.1190
WoodburnRW550.170.0100.0030
BoyceST901.400.1630.0721
McKayLW900.030.3550.3381
SimmsFW3510.920.0000.0921
GinnellyFW350.100.0210.0451
CochraneDF340.000.0000.0014
HallidayMF210.000.0000.0004
Haring MF210.000.000−0.0102

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Fraser and Power: 4 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 5 passesFraser and Shaughnessy: 5 passesAlnwick: 3 completed passesFraser: 8 completed passesShaughnessy: 8 completed passesDunne: 2 completed passesTait: 6 completed passesGogic: 4 completed passesPower: 5 completed passesKiltie: 1 completed passesRonan: 4 completed passesJones: 1 completed passesGreive: 0 completed passes12241821361143721AlnwickFraserShaughnessyDunneTaitGogicPowerKiltieRonanJonesGreiveStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Souttar and Kingsley: 4 passesMackay-Steven and Baningime: 4 passesDevlin and Boyce: 4 passesSouttar and Devlin: 5 passesSouttar and Woodburn: 5 passesAtkinson and Boyce: 5 passesMackay-Steven and Devlin: 5 passesBoyce and McKay: 5 passesGordon and Souttar: 6 passesSouttar and Baningime: 7 passesKingsley and McKay: 7 passesAtkinson and Baningime: 7 passesDevlin and Baningime: 7 passesHalkett and Devlin: 8 passesMackay-Steven and McKay: 8 passesGordon and Halkett: 10 passesKingsley and Baningime: 10 passesAtkinson and Woodburn: 10 passesKingsley and Devlin: 13 passesHalkett and Kingsley: 15 passesHalkett and Souttar: 18 passesKingsley and Mackay-Steven: 21 passesSouttar and Atkinson: 22 passesGordon: 17 completed passesHalkett: 34 completed passesSouttar: 35 completed passesKingsley: 39 completed passesAtkinson: 27 completed passesMackay-Steven: 18 completed passesDevlin: 27 completed passesBaningime: 24 completed passesWoodburn: 11 completed passesBoyce: 9 completed passesMcKay: 14 completed passes11943121114691018GordonHalkettSouttarKingsleyAtkinsonMackay-StevenDevlinBaningimeWoodburnBoyceMcKayStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
DunneAlnwick11
ShaughnessyAlnwick5
TaitDunne4
GogicDunne4
AlnwickShaughnessy4

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettSouttar18
SouttarAtkinson14
HalkettKingsley12
KingsleyMackay-Steven12
SouttarHalkett11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

6+2.12−4.519+3.35−1.04−1.04−2.43−4.812+4.38+2.14−1.27+3.03−3.26−0.73−0.92−0.62−0.53−1.04+0.31−0.82+0.70−1.01−0.72−0.31−0.10−0.30−0.70−0.12+1.61−6.41−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Hearts

6+1.64−0.92−3.34−0.44−2.43−4.16−1.04−2.38+1.87+1.21−4.07+1.15−0.35+0.54+0.32−1.72−1.36+2.01−1.720.01−0.60−1.61−1.20−0.40−0.51+0.40−0.41+0.17−4.81−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.020.010.010.02−0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.01−0.02−0.180.030.020.03LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.020.010.020.060.010.010.050.060.030.030.010.130.020.040.070.02−0.030.070.010.040.070.130.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackSt. Mirren0.93 → 0.91Hearts1.22 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.26 → 1.31Hearts1.18 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six43%30%−13
11th2%4%+2
Bottom<1%1%+1
Motherwell
Top six57%60%+3
Dundee United
Top six51%55%+4

From the forecast before the match (26 February 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHearts
Expected goals1.091.25
Win31%39%
Expected Points1.231.48
Clean sheet29%34%

St. Mirren 31%Draw 29%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Hearts goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%3%1%10%8%3%1%6%7%4%2%2%3%2%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 February 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHearts win
St. Mirren
Top six43%63%39%30%
11th2%1%2%4%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Motherwell
Top six57%52%59%60%
Dundee United
Top six51%47%52%55%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–119 FebLivingston (A)xG 0.13–1.29
  2. W2–19 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.22–1.02
  3. W1–05 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.38–1.22
  4. D1–11 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.46–0.81
  5. W1–025 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.13–0.47
  6. W2–118 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.46–1.49

Hearts

  1. L1–219 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.56–0.69
  2. L1–29 FebDundee FC (H)xG 1.76–0.86
  3. L0–56 FebRangers (A)xG 0.57–4.76
  4. D0–01 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.37–1.02
  5. W2–029 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.65–0.76
  6. L1–226 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.22–1.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHearts
Position7th3rd
Played2627
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠12–⁠712–⁠7–⁠8
Points33 (1.27 per game)43 (1.59 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.53
Goals26–⁠3536–⁠29
xG per game0.92–⁠1.461.37–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game1.23, 0.92–⁠1.051.93, 1.66–⁠1.01
Away: points, xG per game1.31, 0.92–⁠1.881.23, 1.05–⁠1.62
ManagerStephen Robinson (0)Robbie Neilson (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackSt. Mirren0.93, 9thHearts1.22, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.26, 8thHearts1.18, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 0.93Hearts attack: 1.221.220.93HeartsSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.26Hearts defence: 1.181.261.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−40%+30%+2%+23%
Counter-attacks−8%+10%+120%−37%
Set pieces+13%−4%−10%+12%
Penalties−12%+18%+99%−100%
Headers+19%−4%−23%−13%
Left side−21%+32%+34%+14%
Centre−18%+14%−29%+10%
Right side−42%+21%+40%+38%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−21%+38%Centre−18%+10%Right side−42%+14%Open play−40%+23%Counter-attacks−8%−37%Set pieces+13%+12%Headers+19%−13%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+34%+21%Centre−29%+14%Right side+40%+32%Open play+2%+30%Counter-attacks+120%+10%Set pieces−10%−4%Headers−23%−4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHearts

0.92xG1.37
1.46xG against1.31
46%Possession54%
11.0Shots12.7
15.2Shots against13.6
3.8Shots on target4.6
0.9Big chances1.8
17.0Touches in the opposition box23.0
345Passes439
66%Pass accuracy75%
5.2Corners5.6
43%Field tilt53%
29.6Final-third entries43.2
9.0Box entries11.9
15.4Passes per defensive action13.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.921.25
Ahead180.921.46
Behind240.921.90

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.411.15
Ahead281.580.93
Behind190.962.20

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.205–4
16–300.090.211–7
31–450.150.255–7
46–600.240.314–6
61–750.120.335–8
76–900.240.166–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.215–6
16–300.130.176–2
31–450.290.207–5
46–600.320.165–4
61–750.280.278–8
76–900.180.305–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTAlnwick 25Lyness 1Fraser 21Henderson 3Kiltie 2Shaughnessy 24McCarthy 11Dunne 15Millar 6Fraser 5Tait 4Power 23McGrath 3Reid 3Erhahon 7Flynn 7Ronan 5Tanser 22Tait 4McGrath 12Kiltie 7Millar 3Ronan 11Brophy 8Jones 4Main 11Brophy 9Greive 33-4-2-1 in 6 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-4-1-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 26Stewart 1Souttar 23Moore 8Smith 1Halkett 21Sibbick 4Kingsley 20Cochrane 4Smith 16Atkinson 4Moore 4Devlin 19McEneff 1Smith 1Baningime 19Haring 12Halliday 1Cochrane 14Halliday 10Kingsley 3McKay 11Ginnelly 8Woodburn 3Boyce 14Ginnelly 4Simms 4Mackay-Steven 10Woodburn 7McKay 63-4-3 in 17 of 27 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (17), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 November 2021Hearts2–0St. MirrenxG 2.16–1.16
7 August 2021St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.73–0.47

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Hearts won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–4 and xG 0.94–1.31 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Brophy181,440600.310.01
Tanser221,866240.070.23
McGrath181,588210.100.15
Ronan191,567630.110.13

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce181,573820.550.08
Gnanduillet3459100.340.10
McKay201,754060.130.31
Mackay-Steven121,010230.280.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.