Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 2–1 Ross County

Sunday 26 December 2021, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 20 · Half-time 2–0

Hearts Smith 4', Woodburn 42'

Ross County White 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRoss County
Goals21
xG1.731.00
Expected Points1.880.86

Hearts 54%Draw 26%Ross County 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 2–1, 12%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%6%3%6%2%10%6%2%5%6%3%2%2%1%10%14%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTKingsley on for Halkett, 50'Walker on for McEneff, 56'Mackay-Steven on for Woodburn, 78'Burroughs on for Cancola, 46'A. Samuel on for D. Samuel, 83'Smith 4'Woodburn 42'White 72'Hearts 1.73Ross County 1.0000.511.520153045607590HTKingsley on for Halkett, 50'Walker on for McEneff, 56'Mackay-Steven on for Woodburn, 78'Burroughs on for Cancola, 46'A. Samuel on for D. Samuel, 83'Smith 4'Woodburn 42'White 72'1.731.00HeartsRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRoss County

1.73 +0.40xG1.00 −0.13
1.51 +0.05xG on target1.28 +0.08
17 +4Shots13 +2
5 +0.6Shots on target5 +0.8
2 +0.5Big chances0 −1.5
29 +6Touches in the opposition box16 −1
60% +6Possession40% −2
476 +39Passes305 −13
74% −1Pass accuracy63% −4
51% −2Field tilt49% +10
46 +3Final-third entries40 +12
17 +4.9Box entries7 −1.5
15.4 +2Passes per defensive action17.7 +1
4 −1.7Corners5 +1.2
7 −8Tackles12 −1
8 −0.3Interceptions8 −2.5
29 +11Clearances17 −9
4 −0.2Saves3 −0.5
12 0Fouls12 0
1 −1.2Offsides2 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

McEneff 4', 0.25 xGSmith 63', 0.23 xGMcEneff 9', 0.18 xGSouttar 32', 0.18 xGSmith 28', 0.14 xGMcKay 59', 0.12 xGSouttar 44', 0.09 xGMoore 68', 0.06 xGWalker 68', 0.05 xGHaring 73', 0.04 xGMcEneff 23', 0.03 xGHalkett 10', 0.02 xGMcKay 12', 0.02 xGSouttar 12', 0.02 xGWoodburn 7', 0.01 xGSmith 4', 0.20 xG, goalWoodburn 42', 0.11 xG, goal13%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals74%1.28 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.28 xG, 1 goal5%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals8%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

A. Samuel 90+5', 0.20 xGD. Samuel 35', 0.11 xGRandall 90+4', 0.10 xGCharles-Cook 79', 0.06 xGClarke 89', 0.06 xGHungbo 60', 0.05 xGHungbo 87', 0.04 xGHungbo 34', 0.03 xGSpittal 54', 0.03 xGCharles-Cook 21', 0.02 xGRandall 72', 0.01 xGCharles-Cook 72', 0.01 xGWhite 72', 0.30 xG, goal10%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals59%0.60 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal17%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals9%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRoss County

1.23 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.62 8 shots, 1 goal
0.14 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.36 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.38 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Hearts 0.45, Ross County 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
91 min (96%) · Hearts 1.28, Ross County 1.00 xG

Line-ups

1419171525168918GordonSouttarHalkettCochraneMooreSmithHaringHallidayMcEneffWoodburnMcKayGoalYellow cardGoal50'56'78'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson1220537423101726LaidlawRandallClarkeBaldwinVokinsSpittalCancolaHungboD. SamuelCharles-CookWhiteYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'83'Ross County 4-2-3-1Malky Mackay

Hearts substitutes

  • 50' Kingsley for Halkett
  • 56' Walker for McEneff
  • 78' Mackay-Steven for Woodburn

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Burroughs for Cancola
  • 83' A. Samuel for D. Samuel

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0211
SouttarCB900.290.0000.01311
HalkettCB500.020.0100.0753
CochraneCB900.000.0100.0537
MooreRWB900.060.0220.0365
SmithCM9010.560.0410.1042
HaringCM9010.040.0230.0436
Halliday LWB900.000.0510.1894
McEneffRW560.460.0310.0630
WoodburnST7810.120.8520.3351
McKayLW900.140.3750.2570
KingsleyDF400.000.0000.0556
WalkerMF340.050.0100.0332
Mackay-StevenFW120.000.0000.0200

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0430
RandallRB900.110.0200.0654
Clarke CB900.060.0100.0867
Baldwin CB900.000.0000.06611
VokinsLB900.000.0910.1132
Spittal DM900.030.0630.0955
CancolaDM460.000.0000.0003
HungboRW9010.110.2620.1251
D. SamuelAM830.110.0210.0534
Charles-CookLW900.090.0110.0441
WhiteST9010.300.0000.0101
BurroughsDF440.000.011−0.0111
A. SamuelFW70.200.000−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Halkett and McEneff: 4 passesGordon and Cochrane: 5 passesHalliday and Woodburn: 5 passesHaring and Smith: 5 passesMcEneff and Woodburn: 5 passesWoodburn and McKay: 5 passesCochrane and Smith: 6 passesMoore and Haring: 6 passesHalliday and Haring: 6 passesHalkett and Halliday: 7 passesHalkett and Smith: 7 passesSouttar and Halkett: 8 passesHalkett and Moore: 8 passesCochrane and McKay: 9 passesMoore and Smith: 9 passesHalliday and McKay: 9 passesHalkett and Haring: 10 passesCochrane and Haring: 10 passesMoore and McEneff: 11 passesSouttar and Moore: 14 passesCochrane and Halliday: 22 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 25 passesGordon: 9 completed passesSouttar: 19 completed passesHalkett: 37 completed passesCochrane: 45 completed passesMoore: 32 completed passesHalliday: 26 completed passesHaring: 22 completed passesSmith: 19 completed passesMcEneff: 12 completed passesWoodburn: 8 completed passesMcKay: 17 completed passes1419171516528918GordonSouttarHalkettCochraneMooreHallidayHaringSmithMcEneffWoodburnMcKayStarters until 50' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Clarke: 3 passesClarke and Baldwin: 3 passesClarke and Cancola: 3 passesBaldwin and Vokins: 3 passesSpittal and Hungbo: 3 passesHungbo and D. Samuel: 3 passesLaidlaw and Baldwin: 4 passesVokins and D. Samuel: 4 passesVokins and Charles-Cook: 4 passesSpittal and D. Samuel: 4 passesVokins and Cancola: 7 passesVokins and Spittal: 7 passesRandall and Hungbo: 8 passesLaidlaw: 8 completed passesRandall: 7 completed passesClarke: 9 completed passesBaldwin: 9 completed passesVokins: 18 completed passesCancola: 11 completed passesSpittal: 10 completed passesHungbo: 7 completed passesD. Samuel: 7 completed passesCharles-Cook: 3 completed passesWhite: 1 completed passes1220534723101726LaidlawRandallClarkeBaldwinVokinsCancolaSpittalHungboD. SamuelCharles-CookWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
CochraneHalliday18
HallidayCochrane13
CochraneHalkett13
HaringCochrane12
HalkettCochrane12

Ross County

FromToPasses
RandallHungbo8
SpittalRandall7
BaldwinVokins6
VokinsD. Samuel6
VokinsSpittal6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−1.06+1.020+8.76+0.54−0.810+4.68+1.25−2.96+0.21−6.010+4.11−4.95−0.55−1.09+4.44−0.43−0.32−1.93−0.45+0.92−0.71−0.80−1.71−0.70−2.40−0.40−0.50−0.70−0.41+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Ross County

2−3.55−0.94−3.33−3.411+3.610+2.44−2.88−0.38−0.55−0.45+0.42−1.31−3.57+0.88+3.81−1.86+3.530.07+3.42−0.14+2.02+1.43+1.60−1.71+0.10−0.10−0.60−0.31+0.49−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.040.010.020.030.040.070.050.050.030.020.020.030.030.010.070.040.140.110.200.18LessMore

Ross County

0.020.010.010.040.040.010.030.030.030.020.010.030.030.030.040.010.01−0.010.040.010.02−0.01−0.020.060.050.070.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHearts1.19 → 1.21Ross County1.03 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.10 → 1.12Ross County1.45 → 1.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six99%>99%+1
Ross County
Top six5%3%−2
11th18%21%+3
Bottom13%16%+3
Dundee FC
11th25%25%0
Bottom39%37%−2
St. Johnstone
11th26%24%−2
Bottom31%30%−1

From the forecast before the match (26 December 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRoss County
Expected goals1.730.93
Win56%20%
Expected Points1.910.84
Clean sheet39%18%

Hearts 56%Draw 25%Ross County 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%5%2%5%1%6%6%3%3%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 December 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRoss County win
Hearts
Top six99%>99%99%98%
Ross County
Top six5%3%5%11%
11th18%21%17%12%
Bottom13%16%11%6%
Dundee FC
11th25%25%24%25%
Bottom39%37%40%42%
St. Johnstone
11th26%24%27%28%
Bottom31%30%32%33%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–018 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.02–0.14
  2. L0–212 DecRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.86
  3. W1–05 DecLivingston (A)xG 1.84–1.25
  4. L0–12 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.67–2.86
  5. W2–027 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.16–1.16
  6. L0–220 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–2.16

Ross County

  1. W2–122 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.15–0.32
  2. D1–118 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.57–1.00
  3. L1–215 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.65–2.72
  4. W3–211 DecDundee FC (H)xG 2.13–1.64
  5. D0–01 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.93–1.89
  6. D1–127 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.53–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRoss County
Position3rd10th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠44–⁠6–⁠9
Points33 (1.74 per game)18 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.521.24
Goals27–⁠1726–⁠33
xG per game1.33–⁠1.231.13–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.69–⁠0.971.00, 1.33–⁠1.37
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.01–⁠1.470.90, 0.95–⁠1.43
ManagerRobbie Neilson (19)Malky Mackay (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHearts1.19, 3rdRoss County1.03, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.10, 5thRoss County1.45, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.19Ross County attack: 1.031.191.03Ross CountyHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.10Ross County defence: 1.451.451.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%+10%−8%+17%
Counter-attacks+15%−36%−41%+26%
Set pieces−15%+22%−22%+37%
Penalties+134%−100%+56%−61%
Headers−29%−18%−44%+51%
Left side+43%−6%−30%+24%
Centre−42%+11%−17%+21%
Right side+35%+32%+9%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side+43%+26%Centre−42%+21%Right side+35%+24%Open play+1%+17%Counter-attacks+15%+26%Set pieces−15%+37%Headers−29%+51%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−30%+32%Centre−17%+11%Right side+9%−6%Open play−8%+10%Counter-attacks−41%−36%Set pieces−22%+22%Headers−44%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRoss County

1.33xG1.13
1.23xG against1.40
54%Possession42%
12.6Shots10.7
13.3Shots against15.1
4.4Shots on target4.2
1.5Big chances1.5
22.8Touches in the opposition box17.3
437Passes318
75%Pass accuracy66%
5.7Corners3.8
53%Field tilt39%
43.4Final-third entries28.3
12.1Box entries8.5
13.5Passes per defensive action17.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.491.14
Ahead281.450.92
Behind170.731.99

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.931.33
Ahead151.521.27
Behind291.231.58

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.213–4
16–300.160.185–1
31–450.310.175–4
46–600.300.203–2
61–750.230.196–4
76–900.210.285–2

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.133–5
16–300.240.214–7
31–450.200.208–7
46–600.070.221–4
61–750.220.276–3
76–900.300.374–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 19Souttar 17Moore 5Smith 1Halkett 18Kingsley 13Cochrane 3Smith 14McKay 2Moore 2Baningime 15Woodburn 1McEneff 1Devlin 13Haring 7Halliday 1Cochrane 10Halliday 6Kingsley 3McKay 8Ginnelly 6Woodburn 3Boyce 13Ginnelly 3Gnanduillet 2Mackay-Steven 8Woodburn 7McKay 33-4-3 in 12 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (12), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMaynard-Brewer 14Laidlaw 5Clarke 10Randall 5Burroughs 2Baldwin 13Clarke 4Watson 4Iacovitti 14Paton 1Burroughs 1Randall 5B. Paton 5Vokins 4Tillson 11Spittal 6Callachan 5Paton 8Cancola 7Charles-Cook 1Hungbo 8Charles-Cook 3Baldwin 2Callachan 10Tillson 3Paton 3Charles-Cook 12Spittal 5Callachan 1White 12D. Samuel 3A. Samuel 24-2-3-1 in 9 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 September 2021Ross County2–2HeartsxG 1.44–1.21

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Ross County won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.21–1.44 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce131,158710.640.05
McKay131,155020.130.33
Gnanduillet3459100.340.10
Mackay-Steven10801230.310.11

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
D. Samuel4456100.490.04
Spittal151,358410.150.17
Callachan161,406310.260.04
Hungbo9855220.160.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.