Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Hearts 2–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 27 November 2021, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 15 · Half-time 0–0 · Attendance 17,311

Hearts Mackay-Steven 61', Kingsley 75'

St. Mirren Shaughnessy sent off 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG2.161.16
Expected Points2.040.74

Hearts 61%Draw 22%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 2–1, 11%. Final score 2–0, 8%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%7%5%2%7%2%6%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%8%11%8%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTShaughnessy (St. Mirren), second yellow card 90+5'Ginnelly on for Mackay-Steven, 70'Gnanduillet on for Boyce, 80'Haring on for Baningime, 86'McAllister on for Tanser, 34'Dennis on for Ronan, 73'Kiltie on for Flynn, 81'Mackay-Steven 61'Kingsley 75'Hearts 2.16St. Mirren 1.1601230153045607590HTShaughnessy (St. Mirren), second yellow card 90+5'Ginnelly on for Mackay-Steven, 70'Gnanduillet on for Boyce, 80'Haring on for Baningime, 86'McAllister on for Tanser, 34'Dennis on for Ronan, 73'Kiltie on for Flynn, 81'Mackay-Steven 61'Kingsley 75'2.161.16HeartsSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Mirren

2.16 +0.83xG1.16 +0.15
2.12 +0.59xG on target0.50 −0.48
16 +4Shots18 +6
7 +2.6Shots on target7 +3.0
2 +0.6Big chances0 −1.0
26 +4Touches in the opposition box25 +8
51% −4Possession49% 0
417 −24Passes401 +42
70% −5Pass accuracy65% −4
58% +3Field tilt42% −4
34 −10Final-third entries24 −9
17 +5.0Box entries11 +1.4
12.6 0Passes per defensive action12.5 −1
5 −0.4Corners7 +1.9
14 0Tackles20 +7
11 +2.1Interceptions10 +0.6
19 +1Clearances29 +13
7 +2.9Saves5 +1.9
13 +1Fouls11 −2
0 −2.3Offsides5 +2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Mackay-Steven 47', 0.36 xGSmith 60', 0.33 xGSmith 47', 0.22 xGBoyce 45+1', 0.17 xGSmith 65', 0.17 xGBoyce 30', 0.13 xGBoyce 23', 0.11 xGKingsley 90+7', 0.10 xGMcKay 89', 0.09 xGBoyce 67', 0.07 xGSmith 80', 0.07 xGMcKay 48', 0.05 xGMcKay 61', 0.05 xGGinnelly 90+4', 0.05 xGMackay-Steven 61', 0.14 xG, goalKingsley 75', 0.04 xG, goal25%0.53 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals59%1.27 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.27 xG, 1 goal6%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals9%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 1 goal

St. Mirren

Fraser 57', 0.29 xGShaughnessy 90+3', 0.13 xGFraser 57', 0.11 xGDunne 21', 0.09 xGDennis 76', 0.09 xGShaughnessy 40', 0.07 xGMcGrath 56', 0.07 xGMcGrath 15', 0.06 xGBrophy 13', 0.05 xGBrophy 20', 0.03 xGBrophy 39', 0.03 xGTait 25', 0.02 xGShaughnessy 42', 0.02 xGPower 54', 0.02 xGMcAllister 57', 0.02 xGMcGrath 21', 0.01 xGBrophy 70', 0.01 xGDennis 82', 0.01 xG25%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals38%0.44 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals29%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.98 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.47 10 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.14 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.69 8 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
62 min (63%) · Hearts 1.57, St. Mirren 0.91 xG
Hearts ahead
36 min (37%) · Hearts 0.59, St. Mirren 0.25 xG

Line-ups

14193261416181011GordonSouttarHalkettKingsleySmithBaningimeDevlinHallidayMcKayBoyceMackay-StevenGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal86'80'70'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson14182228637439AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserTaitFlynnPowerTanserMcGrathRonanBrophyYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow card81'34'73'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Ginnelly for Mackay-Steven
  • 80' Gnanduillet for Boyce
  • 86' Haring for Baningime

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 34' McAllister for Tanser
  • 73' Dennis for Ronan
  • 81' Kiltie for Flynn

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.09102
SouttarCB900.000.0300.0879
HalkettCB900.000.0000.0338
KingsleyCB9010.140.0010.0678
SmithRWB900.800.1010.1043
BaningimeCM860.000.1920.2163
Devlin CM900.000.0700.0618
Halliday LWB900.000.0200.0753
McKayRW900.190.7840.77142
BoyceST800.490.0610.0622
Mackay-StevenLW7010.500.0610.1031
GinnellyFW200.050.0100.0320
GnanduilletFW100.000.0100.0210
HaringMF40.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Alnwick GK900.000.0000.0460
Shaughnessy CB900.220.0000.02311
DunneCB900.090.041−0.03316
FraserCB900.400.0000.0005
TaitRWB900.020.4620.1946
Flynn CM810.000.0000.0338
PowerCM900.020.0300.0247
TanserLWB340.000.0500.0314
McGrathAM900.140.1950.0662
RonanAM730.000.0500.0852
BrophyST900.130.010−0.1021
McAllisterFW560.020.1010.1873
DennisFW170.110.0010.0110
KiltieMF90.000.0010.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Halkett and Devlin: 5 passesHalliday and Devlin: 5 passesBoyce and Mackay-Steven: 5 passesGordon and Souttar: 6 passesGordon and Boyce: 6 passesKingsley and Devlin: 6 passesSouttar and Baningime: 6 passesHalkett and Halliday: 6 passesBaningime and McKay: 6 passesMcKay and Mackay-Steven: 6 passesSouttar and Devlin: 7 passesSouttar and McKay: 7 passesSmith and Baningime: 7 passesHalliday and Mackay-Steven: 7 passesGordon and Halkett: 8 passesKingsley and Halliday: 9 passesSmith and McKay: 10 passesKingsley and Baningime: 12 passesSouttar and Smith: 12 passesMcKay and Boyce: 12 passesKingsley and Halkett: 13 passesSouttar and Halkett: 14 passesDevlin and Baningime: 15 passesGordon: 19 completed passesKingsley: 30 completed passesSouttar: 33 completed passesHalkett: 30 completed passesSmith: 21 completed passesHalliday: 20 completed passesDevlin: 26 completed passesBaningime: 31 completed passesMcKay: 25 completed passesBoyce: 10 completed passesMackay-Steven: 16 completed passes13419216146181011GordonKingsleySouttarHalkettSmithHallidayDevlinBaningimeMcKayBoyceMackay-StevenStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Shaughnessy: 3 passesShaughnessy and Dunne: 3 passesDunne and McGrath: 3 passesTanser and McGrath: 3 passesPower and McGrath: 3 passesAlnwick and Dunne: 4 passesAlnwick and Fraser: 4 passesShaughnessy and Flynn: 4 passesFraser and Power: 4 passesTanser and Ronan: 4 passesFraser and Ronan: 7 passesAlnwick: 7 completed passesShaughnessy: 8 completed passesDunne: 11 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesTait: 4 completed passesTanser: 8 completed passesPower: 9 completed passesFlynn: 3 completed passesRonan: 11 completed passesMcGrath: 8 completed passesBrophy: 1 completed passes14182223684379AlnwickShaughnessyDunneFraserTaitTanserPowerFlynnRonanMcGrathBrophyStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
HalkettSouttar14
McKayBoyce10
KingsleyHalkett9
DevlinBaningime9
SouttarSmith8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
DunneAlnwick11
TaitMcGrath9
McGrathPower8
TaitPower7
McGrathMcAllister7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.05−0.116+6.150.07+1.85−0.17+0.410+2.46+0.58+1.13−3.113+7.68+2.69+2.44−0.75+0.45+1.84+0.53−0.14−0.23+0.61−0.91−0.91−0.84+1.50−0.31+0.52+1.22+1.62+0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.19+3.228+14.98+2.45−0.47−0.17+0.19+3.48+1.03−4.611+4.66+0.37+2.77+1.19+2.25+0.64+1.14+1.612+8.74+0.23+0.70−1.61−0.10−2.14+1.80−1.10−0.41+0.10−0.10−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.030.010.010.020.040.010.040.050.010.010.030.050.050.060.010.040.110.070.210.170.01−0.010.190.43LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.040.010.010.010.010.02−0.01−0.020.040.050.020.040.020.040.02−0.01−0.030.020.010.090.080.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackHearts1.27 → 1.30St. Mirren1.02 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.20 → 1.19St. Mirren1.31 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six92%96%+4
St. Mirren
Top six17%12%−5
11th13%16%+3
Bottom5%7%+2

From the forecast before the match (27 November 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.540.97
Win50%23%
Expected Points1.770.96
Clean sheet38%22%

Hearts 50%Draw 27%St. Mirren 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%5%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 November 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hearts
Top six92%96%90%87%
St. Mirren
Top six17%12%16%28%
11th13%16%13%8%
Bottom5%7%5%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–220 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–2.16
  2. W5–26 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.14–0.85
  3. L1–230 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.95–1.11
  4. D1–127 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.94–1.22
  5. D1–123 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.49–0.52
  6. D1–116 OctRangers (A)xG 0.49–3.34

St. Mirren

  1. D1–120 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.91–0.76
  2. D0–06 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.76–0.18
  3. L0–130 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.79–0.66
  4. D2–227 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.27–1.25
  5. L1–224 OctRangers (H)xG 0.06–2.62
  6. W3–216 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.10–1.15

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Mirren
Position3rd6th
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠6–⁠23–⁠7–⁠4
Points24 (1.71 per game)16 (1.14 per game)
Expected Points per game1.551.28
Goals23–⁠1416–⁠22
xG per game1.33–⁠1.151.01–⁠1.38
Home: points, xG per game2.14, 1.72–⁠0.820.86, 0.92–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game1.29, 0.94–⁠1.491.43, 1.11–⁠1.68
ManagerRobbie Neilson (14)Jim Goodwin (52)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackHearts1.27, 4thSt. Mirren1.02, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.20, 6thSt. Mirren1.31, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts attack: 1.27St. Mirren attack: 1.021.271.02St. MirrenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts defence: 1.20St. Mirren defence: 1.311.311.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%−1%−34%+21%
Counter-attacks−41%−41%+50%+74%
Set piecesaverage+35%+24%−13%
Penalties+174%−100%−9%+37%
Headers−29%−9%+30%−12%
Left side+39%−6%−14%+18%
Centre−37%+5%−13%+13%
Right side+8%+26%−23%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+39%+10%Centre−37%+13%Right side+8%+18%Open play−9%+21%Counter-attacks−41%+74%Set piecesaverage−13%Headers−29%−12%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHearts concededLeft side−14%+26%Centre−13%+5%Right side−23%−6%Open play−34%−1%Counter-attacks+50%−41%Set pieces+24%+35%Headers+30%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Mirren

1.33xG1.01
1.15xG against1.38
55%Possession49%
12.4Shots11.9
12.9Shots against14.0
4.4Shots on target4.0
1.4Big chances1.0
22.4Touches in the opposition box16.7
442Passes359
76%Pass accuracy69%
5.4Corners5.1
54%Field tilt46%
43.9Final-third entries32.9
12.0Box entries9.6
12.8Passes per defensive action13.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.540.97
Ahead321.361.00
Behind130.592.11

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.050.94
Ahead201.001.76
Behind250.961.86

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.153–2
16–300.170.165–1
31–450.390.175–3
46–600.270.192–2
61–750.170.183–4
76–900.170.295–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.154–1
16–300.120.191–5
31–450.150.383–6
46–600.190.252–4
61–750.140.293–4
76–900.330.133–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 14Souttar 12Moore 4Halkett 13Kingsley 10Cochrane 3Smith 12McKay 1Moore 1Baningime 14Woodburn 1Devlin 8Haring 4Halliday 1Cochrane 9Halliday 4Kingsley 1McKay 6Ginnelly 5Woodburn 2Boyce 10Ginnelly 2Gnanduillet 2Woodburn 6Mackay-Steven 6McKay 13-4-3 in 9 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTAlnwick 14Fraser 14McAllister 1Shaughnessy 13McCarthy 11Dunne 3Tait 3Ronan 3Millar 3Power 12McGrath 3Reid 2Erhahon 6Flynn 4Tanser 14Ronan 4McGrath 3Millar 3Main 8Brophy 12McGrath 5Ronan 33-4-1-2 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 August 2021St. Mirren1–2HeartsxG 0.73–0.47

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, St. Mirren won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 0.47–0.73 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce10873610.650.05
Mackay-Steven7575130.350.09
McKay8705010.150.24
Moore5456010.070.16

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tanser141,199130.080.26
Tait4464010.260.07
Brophy121,081500.290.01
McGrath121,064210.120.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.