Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 0–1 Rangers

Sunday 1 November 2020, 12:00 · Rugby Park · Round 13 · Half-time 0–1

Rangers Tavernier 19' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals01
xG0.502.80
Non-penalty xG0.502.01
Expected Points0.152.76

Kilmarnock 2%Draw 8%Rangers 89%

Most likely score 0–3, 17%. Final score 0–1, 8%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%8%11%4%2%5%9%9%6%2%1%2%2%1%17%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBrophy on for Kabamba, 74'Pinnock on for Burke and Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 78'Davis on for Aribo, 66'Balogun on for Morelos, 86'Tavernier 19' (pen)Rangers 2.80Kilmarnock 0.5001230153045607590HTBrophy on for Kabamba, 74'Pinnock on for Burke and Mulumbu on for Tshibola, 78'Davis on for Aribo, 66'Balogun on for Morelos, 86'Tavernier 19' (pen)2.800.50KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

0.50 −0.52xG2.80 +0.52
0.50Non-penalty xG2.01
0.42 −0.75xG on target1.38 −0.82
8 −1.6Shots20 +1.2
4 +0.5Shots on target4 −2.8
0 −1.2Big chances2 −1.1
15 −1Touches in the opposition box42 +18
44% 0Possession56% −11
379 +32Passes465 −153
69% 0Pass accuracy77% −8
29% −17Field tilt71% −10
34 −4Final-third entries54 −6
9 −0.4Box entries22 +3.3
17.6 +3Passes per defensive action17.2 +7
4 −0.5Corners9 +1.8
15 +2Tackles11 −4
6 −4.5Interceptions6 −3.0
27 +8Clearances21 +10
3 +0.9Saves4 +2.9
14 +2Fouls14 +3
2 −0.3Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Power 51', 0.11 xGBrophy 84', 0.09 xGBroadfoot 88', 0.07 xGKabamba 68', 0.06 xGBurke 45', 0.05 xGFindlay 30', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 67', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 87', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.24 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals42%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Itten 69', 0.49 xGMorelos 80', 0.27 xGItten 26', 0.25 xGMorelos 47', 0.15 xGItten 9', 0.07 xGGoldson 18', 0.07 xGGoldson 34', 0.07 xGKent 57', 0.07 xGMorelos 71', 0.07 xGKent 6', 0.06 xGAribo 38', 0.06 xGArfield 46', 0.06 xGItten 90+2', 0.06 xGJack 90+3', 0.06 xGArfield 21', 0.05 xGAribo 12', 0.04 xGBarisic 24', 0.04 xGBarisic 57', 0.04 xGArfield 23', 0.03 xG29%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.59 xG, 0 goals49%0.98 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.98 xG, 0 goals11%0.23 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals8%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

0.28 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.80 15 shots, 0 goals
0.21 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (20%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Rangers 1.03 xG
Rangers ahead
74 min (80%) · Kilmarnock 0.50, Rangers 1.77 xG

Line-ups

232251718786291127RogersMillenBroadfootFindlayWatersMcKenzieDickerPowerBurkeKabambaTshibolaYellow cardYellow cardYellow card78'74'78'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Alex Dyer12653137817112014McGregorTavernierGoldsonHelanderBarisicArfieldJackAriboIttenMorelosKentGoalYellow cardYellow card66'86'Rangers 4-3-3Steven Gerrard

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 74' Brophy for Kabamba
  • 78' Pinnock for Burke
  • 78' Mulumbu for Tshibola

Rangers substitutes

  • 66' Davis for Aribo · yellow card 83'
  • 86' Balogun for Morelos

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0100.0651
MillenRB900.000.1720.2234
BroadfootCB900.070.0300.0768
FindlayCB900.040.0000.04511
Waters LB900.000.0600.2035
McKenzieCM900.080.020−0.0336
DickerCM900.000.0200.11109
Power CM900.110.0200.0222
BurkeRW780.050.1510.1722
KabambaST740.060.011−0.0301
Tshibola LW780.000.0600.0862
BrophyFW160.090.0000.0210
PinnockMF120.000.2300.1822
MulumbuMF120.000.0210.0010

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0431
TavernierRB9010.790.1520.1078
Goldson CB900.140.2310.39168
HelanderCB900.000.0000.0426
Barisic LB900.090.3210.2354
ArfieldCM900.140.2810.1264
JackCM900.060.0400.0863
AriboCM660.100.5610.2354
IttenRW900.870.5720.2740
MorelosST860.480.042−0.0410
KentLW900.130.2430.15111
Davis MF240.000.2510.2110
BalogunDF40.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Findlay and Broadfoot: 4 passesBroadfoot and Tshibola: 4 passesBroadfoot and Burke: 4 passesWaters and Power: 4 passesWaters and Kabamba: 4 passesWaters and McKenzie: 4 passesDicker and McKenzie: 4 passesPower and Burke: 4 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 5 passesRogers and Kabamba: 5 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 5 passesBroadfoot and Power: 5 passesDicker and Kabamba: 5 passesKabamba and McKenzie: 5 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 6 passesMillen and Tshibola: 6 passesFindlay and Dicker: 6 passesFindlay and Waters: 8 passesPower and Tshibola: 8 passesMillen and Burke: 9 passesMillen and Power: 10 passesWaters and Dicker: 12 passesDicker and Power: 13 passesDicker and Tshibola: 15 passesWaters and Tshibola: 19 passesRogers: 11 completed passesMillen: 17 completed passesFindlay: 22 completed passesBroadfoot: 25 completed passesWaters: 31 completed passesDicker: 35 completed passesPower: 23 completed passesTshibola: 30 completed passesBurke: 10 completed passesKabamba: 13 completed passesMcKenzie: 7 completed passes232217518862729117RogersMillenFindlayBroadfootWatersDickerPowerTshibolaBurkeKabambaMcKenzieStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Rangers

Tavernier and Aribo: 6 passesTavernier and Itten: 6 passesGoldson and Aribo: 6 passesArfield and Morelos: 6 passesAribo and Itten: 6 passesJack and Itten: 6 passesGoldson and Arfield: 7 passesArfield and Aribo: 7 passesMorelos and Kent: 7 passesMcGregor and Helander: 8 passesGoldson and Barisic: 8 passesAribo and Morelos: 8 passesTavernier and Jack: 9 passesTavernier and Morelos: 9 passesJack and Morelos: 9 passesJack and Kent: 11 passesTavernier and Goldson: 12 passesTavernier and Arfield: 13 passesArfield and Jack: 15 passesMcGregor and Goldson: 16 passesBarisic and Kent: 16 passesHelander and Goldson: 18 passesBarisic and Jack: 19 passesGoldson and Jack: 23 passesMcGregor: 22 completed passesTavernier: 33 completed passesHelander: 20 completed passesGoldson: 51 completed passesBarisic: 30 completed passesArfield: 29 completed passesAribo: 26 completed passesJack: 56 completed passesItten: 13 completed passesMorelos: 21 completed passesKent: 23 completed passes12563137178112014McGregorTavernierHelanderGoldsonBarisicArfieldAriboJackIttenMorelosKentStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WatersTshibola12
WatersDicker11
DickerTshibola8
MillenPower8
DickerPower7

Rangers

FromToPasses
BarisicJack14
JackGoldson13
HelanderGoldson11
TavernierGoldson10
TavernierArfield10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−0.68+2.119+5.717+9.48+2.06−0.38+0.912+5.811+2.38−0.63−0.24−1.33−1.59+4.44−1.50−3.12−1.12−0.62−0.82−2.20−2.22+0.30−1.72+1.41−1.50−0.70−0.33+2.11+0.60−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Rangers

9+5.19+6.011+5.23−2.75+1.29+1.27+0.97+3.960.08+1.14−2.56+0.82−1.82−2.76+0.24−0.75+0.31−1.76+2.49+5.72−0.43+1.94+2.31−1.50−1.30−0.31+0.10−0.80−1.30−5.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.020.010.040.020.010.010.040.010.020.050.06−0.010.010.11−0.010.170.19−0.030.010.34LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.030.040.020.010.060.150.030.060.040.150.090.030.030.080.050.140.030.19−0.050.08−0.010.270.29LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock1.03 → 1.02Rangers1.97 → 1.94Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.28Rangers0.58 → 0.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six45%42%−3
11th4%5%+1
Bottom2%2%0
Rangers
Title73%76%+3
Celtic
Title26%24%−2
Livingston
Top six26%27%+1
11th6%6%0

From the forecast before the match (1 November 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.512.19
Win7%76%
Expected Points0.382.45
Clean sheet11%60%

Kilmarnock 7%Draw 17%Rangers 76%

Most likely score 0–2, 16%. Both sides score 36%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%3%8%8%6%3%1%2%2%2%14%16%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 November 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Kilmarnock
Top six45%63%53%42%
11th4%1%3%5%
Bottom2%<1%1%2%
Rangers
Title73%61%67%76%
Celtic
Title26%38%32%24%
Livingston
Top six26%21%24%27%
11th6%8%7%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50
  2. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53
  3. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49
  4. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57
  5. L0–112 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.49–1.76
  6. W4–029 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.15–1.04

Rangers

  1. W2–025 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.39–0.87
  2. W2–017 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.50–0.55
  3. W2–04 OctRoss County (H)xG 2.00–0.46
  4. W5–127 SepMotherwell (A)xG 2.59–0.38
  5. D2–220 SepHibernian (A)xG 3.01–0.60
  6. W4–012 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.02–0.91

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRangers
Position6th1st
Played1112
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠510–⁠2–⁠0
Points14 (1.27 per game)32 (2.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.072.52
Goals15–⁠1328–⁠3
xG per game1.02–⁠1.492.28–⁠0.43
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.18–⁠1.303.00, 2.29–⁠0.53
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 0.88–⁠1.652.33, 2.27–⁠0.32
ManagerAlex Dyer (11)Steven Gerrard (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock1.03, 7thRangers1.97, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.30, 8thRangers0.58, 1st

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.03Rangers attack: 1.971.971.03RangersKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.30Rangers defence: 0.581.300.58

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%+7%+96%−62%
Counter-attacks−83%−66%+43%−69%
Set pieces−28%+35%+30%−67%
Penalties−15%−15%+17%−100%
Headers−40%−5%+53%−47%
Left side−5%+27%+61%−73%
Centre−45%+10%+70%−57%
Right side−15%+3%+95%−68%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−5%−68%Centre−45%−57%Right side−15%−73%Open play−23%−62%Counter-attacks−83%−69%Set pieces−28%−67%Headers−40%−47%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+61%+3%Centre+70%+10%Right side+95%+27%Open play+96%+7%Counter-attacks+43%−66%Set pieces+30%+35%Headers+53%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRangers

1.02xG2.28
1.49xG against0.43
44%Possession67%
9.6Shots18.8
14.9Shots against4.6
3.5Shots on target6.8
1.2Big chances3.1
16.0Touches in the opposition box24.2
347Passes618
70%Pass accuracy85%
4.5Corners7.2
46%Field tilt81%
37.6Final-third entries60.2
9.4Box entries18.7
14.7Passes per defensive action10.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.051.47
Ahead230.891.94
Behind301.091.17

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.650.22
Ahead602.100.54
Behind22.350.00

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.221–4
16–300.240.214–3
31–450.210.163–1
46–600.180.203–1
61–750.130.262–0
76–900.170.442–4

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.420.055–0
16–300.360.107–1
31–450.290.064–0
46–600.470.044–0
61–750.350.064–1
76–900.380.124–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 10Eastwood 1Millen 7Rossi 3McGowan 1Broadfoot 11Findlay 9Dikamona 2Waters 11Power 8Kabamba 3Tshibola 11Kiltie 1Dicker 10Burke 11Kabamba 7Brophy 4Kiltie 6Pinnock 2McKenzie 24-3-3 in 6 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (6), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcLaughlin 8McGregor 4Tavernier 12Goldson 12Helander 8Balogun 4Barisic 10Bassey 2Jack 6Kamara 6Aribo 2Davis 6Arfield 4Hagi 4Kent 3Barker 2Jack 3Hagi 2Barker 2Kent 9Hagi 2Itten 1Morelos 8Roofe 3Defoe 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-3-3 (6)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 August 2020Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 2.93–0.10

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Rangers won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–2 and xG 0.10–2.93 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke11906420.270.28
Kiltie7602220.200.09
Kabamba10897400.190.02
Tshibola11965200.140.04

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos8674310.520.19
Tavernier121,076550.370.26
Hagi8691160.320.24
Kent12992410.340.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.