Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Dundee United 2–0 Kilmarnock

Wednesday 23 December 2020, 18:30 · Tannadice Park · Round 19 · Half-time 2–0

Dundee United McNulty 25', Shankland 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Goals20
xG0.930.65
Expected Points1.591.03

Dundee United 41%Draw 38%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 22%. Final score 2–0, 9%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+11%4%5%9%6%2%2%1%18%22%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTPawlett on for Butcher, 61'Clark on for McNulty, 76'Sporle on for Bolton, 81'Pinnock on for Kiltie and Kabamba on for Dikamona, 61'Whitehall on for Brophy, 73'Mulumbu on for Power, 74'McNulty 25'Shankland 28'Dundee United 0.93Kilmarnock 0.6500.250.50.7510153045607590HTPawlett on for Butcher, 61'Clark on for McNulty, 76'Sporle on for Bolton, 81'Pinnock on for Kiltie and Kabamba on for Dikamona, 61'Whitehall on for Brophy, 73'Mulumbu on for Power, 74'McNulty 25'Shankland 28'0.930.65Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.93 +0.02xG0.65 −0.31
1.48 +0.65xG on target0.21 −0.80
9 −0.1Shots13 +3.6
5 +2.6Shots on target2 −1.1
1 −0.1Big chances0 −1.0
17 +8.6Touches in the opposition box20 +4.8
42% −5Possession58% +14
380 +23Passes491 +141
60% −7Pass accuracy69% 0
31% −6Field tilt69% +25
34 +5Final-third entries45 +9
10 +3.2Box entries11 +2.6
22.6 +7Passes per defensive action10.5 −6
2 −2.4Corners7 +2.5
11 −3Tackles8 −4
15 +4Interceptions12 +1
25 −1Clearances10 −8
2 −1.3Saves3 +0.6
11 −2Fouls13 +1
1 −0.4Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

McMullan 76', 0.12 xGClark 76', 0.07 xGMcNulty 16', 0.06 xGMcNulty 31', 0.06 xGButcher 27', 0.05 xGBolton 74', 0.05 xGMcMullan 71', 0.04 xGShankland 28', 0.44 xG, goalMcNulty 25', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals67%0.63 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.63 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals27%0.25 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.25 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 17', 0.14 xGKiltie 29', 0.07 xGTshibola 80', 0.06 xGDikamona 13', 0.05 xGWaters 53', 0.05 xGBrophy 8', 0.04 xGWaters 52', 0.04 xGPinnock 90+4', 0.04 xGBroadfoot 13', 0.03 xGBurke 40', 0.03 xGBroadfoot 50', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 69', 0.03 xGWaters 45', 0.02 xG8%0.05 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals62%0.40 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals12%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals9%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.93 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.51 10 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.13 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
25 min (27%) · Dundee United 0.10, Kilmarnock 0.27 xG
Dundee United ahead
69 min (73%) · Dundee United 0.84, Kilmarnock 0.38 xG

Line-ups

1256177186620924SiegristSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonMcMullanButcherFuchsBoltonMcNultyShanklandGoalGoalYellow card61'81'76'Dundee United 4-4-2Micky Mellon23451767182791029RogersDikamonaBroadfootFindlayPowerMcKenzieWatersTshibolaBrophyKiltieBurkeYellow card61'74'73'61'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Alex Dyer

Dundee United substitutes

  • 61' Pawlett for Butcher · yellow card 79'
  • 76' Clark for McNulty
  • 81' Sporle for Bolton

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 61' Pinnock for Kiltie
  • 61' Kabamba for Dikamona
  • 73' Whitehall for Brophy
  • 74' Mulumbu for Power

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SiegristGK900.000.0000.0441
SmithRB900.000.0100.0438
ConnollyCB900.000.0000.03312
ReynoldsCB900.000.0000.0228
RobsonLB900.000.0210.08105
McMullanRM900.160.1010.18102
ButcherCM610.050.0200.0552
FuchsCM900.000.0200.0457
BoltonLM8110.050.1310.1543
McNultyST7610.160.5310.1910
Shankland ST90110.440.1020.0952
Pawlett MF290.000.0110.0304
ClarkMF140.070.0100.0610
SporleDF90.000.0000.0110

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0560
DikamonaCB610.050.0000.0422
BroadfootCB900.060.0110.0986
FindlayCB900.000.0110.0575
Power RWB740.000.0210.0042
McKenzieCM900.030.1520.1762
WatersCM900.120.0800.1136
TshibolaLWB900.060.1120.1974
BrophyRW730.040.0100.0111
KiltieST610.200.0110.1120
BurkeLW900.030.2130.1771
PinnockMF290.040.0100.0211
KabambaFW290.000.000−0.0100
WhitehallFW170.000.0200.0501
MulumbuMF160.000.0100.0411

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Siegrist and Shankland: 3 passesSmith and Fuchs: 3 passesConnolly and Reynolds: 3 passesReynolds and Robson: 3 passesRobson and Shankland: 3 passesMcMullan and Fuchs: 3 passesSmith and Connolly: 4 passesSmith and McNulty: 4 passesConnolly and Butcher: 4 passesReynolds and Butcher: 4 passesRobson and Bolton: 4 passesMcMullan and McNulty: 4 passesSiegrist and Robson: 5 passesReynolds and Fuchs: 5 passesMcMullan and Shankland: 5 passesButcher and Shankland: 5 passesBolton and Shankland: 5 passesSmith and McMullan: 6 passesConnolly and Fuchs: 6 passesRobson and McNulty: 6 passesSmith and Butcher: 7 passesMcMullan and Butcher: 7 passesFuchs and Butcher: 7 passesShankland and McNulty: 7 passesButcher and McNulty: 8 passesRobson and Fuchs: 11 passesSiegrist: 11 completed passesSmith: 16 completed passesConnolly: 13 completed passesReynolds: 14 completed passesRobson: 26 completed passesMcMullan: 12 completed passesFuchs: 22 completed passesButcher: 21 completed passesBolton: 7 completed passesShankland: 15 completed passesMcNulty: 12 completed passes1256177661820249SiegristSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonMcMullanFuchsButcherBoltonShanklandMcNultyStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot and Burke: 5 passesWaters and Power: 5 passesDikamona and McKenzie: 6 passesDikamona and Tshibola: 6 passesBroadfoot and McKenzie: 6 passesMcKenzie and Brophy: 6 passesPower and Burke: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesTshibola and Burke: 6 passesBurke and Brophy: 6 passesFindlay and Power: 7 passesMcKenzie and Tshibola: 7 passesFindlay and Waters: 8 passesWaters and Tshibola: 8 passesBroadfoot and Power: 9 passesBroadfoot and Tshibola: 9 passesPower and Tshibola: 9 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 11 passesWaters and Kiltie: 11 passesBroadfoot and Findlay: 12 passesMcKenzie and Burke: 12 passesMcKenzie and Kiltie: 12 passesMcKenzie and Power: 16 passesRogers: 7 completed passesDikamona: 14 completed passesBroadfoot: 29 completed passesFindlay: 28 completed passesMcKenzie: 39 completed passesWaters: 24 completed passesPower: 32 completed passesTshibola: 33 completed passesBurke: 16 completed passesBrophy: 13 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passes23451771862729910RogersDikamonaBroadfootFindlayMcKenzieWatersPowerTshibolaBurkeBrophyKiltieStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
RobsonFuchs8
SmithMcMullan8
RobsonMcNulty7
ConnollySmith6
McMullanSmith6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
McKenzieBurke13
McKenziePower11
FindlayBroadfoot9
BurkeMcKenzie9
TshibolaWaters8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

3−2.26−1.216−0.38+1.19+1.87+0.39+1.34−2.413+5.912+1.96+0.65+0.13−0.78+3.37+1.35+0.76+3.21−1.24+1.70−3.81−1.11−0.41+0.22+0.50−1.90−0.80−0.11+0.70−0.20−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Kilmarnock

0−3.43−2.75−2.94−2.38+1.210+3.38−0.75+1.46+0.94+0.36+1.810+5.17+4.17+3.64+1.68+5.43−0.61−0.83+1.42+0.62+0.81−1.12+1.40−0.21+0.10−0.50−0.77−5.92−5.22−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.020.020.010.010.020.010.040.020.02−0.010.030.030.010.060.070.140.050.030.040.070.070.030.010.21LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.020.030.020.010.010.040.020.010.020.030.070.060.10−0.010.05−0.01−0.050.020.100.080.110.050.060.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackDundee United0.95 → 0.94Kilmarnock0.98 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.30 → 1.25Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six29%41%+12
11th6%3%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six28%17%−11
11th8%12%+4
Bottom3%4%+1

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.051.04
Win34%34%
Expected Points1.351.34
Clean sheet35%35%

Dundee United 34%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+7%2%7%2%7%7%4%1%2%2%1%13%12%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee United
Top six29%41%26%18%
11th6%3%7%9%
Bottom2%1%2%2%
Kilmarnock
Top six28%17%26%41%
11th8%12%8%4%
Bottom3%4%3%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D1–119 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.43–2.12
  2. L1–213 DecRangers (H)xG 0.43–1.34
  3. L0–25 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.42–1.20
  4. W2–121 NovHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.73–1.44
  5. D0–06 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.20–1.38
  6. W2–131 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.79–0.88

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–220 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.03
  2. L0–213 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.83
  3. L0–15 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.85–1.56
  4. W3–121 NovRoss County (H)xG 2.12–1.87
  5. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61
  6. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position6th8th
Played1817
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠6–⁠75–⁠2–⁠10
Points21 (1.17 per game)17 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.990.98
Goals14–⁠2318–⁠21
xG per game0.91–⁠1.500.96–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.22, 0.92–⁠1.491.25, 1.11–⁠1.53
Away: points, xG per game1.11, 0.90–⁠1.510.78, 0.82–⁠1.55
ManagerMicky Mellon (18)Alex Dyer (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackDundee United0.95, 11thKilmarnock0.98, 9thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.30, 9thKilmarnock1.30, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 0.95Kilmarnock attack: 0.980.980.95KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.30Kilmarnock defence: 1.301.301.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%+23%−39%+11%
Counter-attacks+96%+166%−89%−68%
Set pieces−38%+12%−1%+36%
Penalties−43%−72%−10%+20%
Headers−58%+23%−21%+7%
Left side+5%+23%−16%+26%
Centre−55%+11%−37%+11%
Right side−17%+51%−31%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+5%+12%Centre−55%+11%Right side−17%+26%Open play−32%+11%Counter-attacks+96%−68%Set pieces−38%+36%Headers−58%+7%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−16%+51%Centre−37%+11%Right side−31%+23%Open play−39%+23%Counter-attacks−89%+166%Set pieces−1%+12%Headers−21%+23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.91xG0.96
1.50xG against1.54
47%Possession44%
9.1Shots9.4
14.7Shots against15.8
2.4Shots on target3.1
1.1Big chances1.0
8.4Touches in the opposition box15.2
357Passes350
66%Pass accuracy70%
4.4Corners4.5
38%Field tilt44%
29.4Final-third entries36.3
6.8Box entries8.4
15.8Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.701.26
Ahead191.131.51
Behind201.282.12

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.971.45
Ahead180.882.12
Behind300.991.31

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.132–2
16–300.170.172–3
31–450.130.303–3
46–600.200.203–3
61–750.030.360–6
76–900.240.344–6

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.202–4
16–300.180.244–4
31–450.170.173–2
46–600.140.213–3
61–750.220.323–3
76–900.150.393–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTSiegrist 17Mehmet 1Connolly 13Neilson 4Smith 3Edwards 13Reynolds 17Bolton 9Smith 4Chalmers 3Butcher 14Fuchs 3Powers 3Pawlett 8Robson 6Clark 2Harkes 15Robson 7Sporle 5Chalmers 3Clark 12McNulty 4Chalmers 1Shankland 11Appere 3Robson 23-5-2 in 6 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 4-4-2 (6), 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 16Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 5Rossi 3Broadfoot 17Findlay 14Dikamona 3Waters 14Haunstrup 3Power 13Kabamba 5Dicker 13Kiltie 1Tshibola 16McKenzie 2Pinnock 1Burke 14McKenzie 1Brophy 1Kabamba 11Brophy 6Kiltie 8Pinnock 4McKenzie 34-3-3 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (5), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2020Kilmarnock4–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.15–1.04

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Dundee United won 0, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–4 and xG 1.04–1.15 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark141,132700.380.03
Pawlett10850100.170.17
Shankland111,058200.200.10
Sporle7689110.110.16

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke141,190520.220.24
Brophy7564200.360.02
Pinnock5492020.050.31
Kabamba161,387500.290.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.