Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee United

Saturday 27 February 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 30 · Half-time 0–1

Kilmarnock Medley 64'

Dundee United Sporle 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals11
xG1.251.02
Expected Points1.531.15

Kilmarnock 40%Draw 33%Dundee United 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 1–1, 19%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%10%5%1%12%8%2%8%10%5%1%3%3%2%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTBurke on for McKenzie and Kabamba on for Pinnock, 61'Appere on for Sporle, 28'Connolly on for Fuchs, 55'Clark on for Appere, 83'Medley 64'Sporle 18'Kilmarnock 1.25Dundee United 1.0200.511.50153045607590HTBurke on for McKenzie and Kabamba on for Pinnock, 61'Appere on for Sporle, 28'Connolly on for Fuchs, 55'Clark on for Appere, 83'Medley 64'Sporle 18'1.251.02KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

1.25 +0.28xG1.02 +0.08
1.22 +0.32xG on target1.00 +0.06
13 +3.0Shots12 +2.5
5 +2.0Shots on target4 +1.1
1 +0.1Big chances1 −0.2
37 +18Touches in the opposition box16 +2
58% +12Possession42% −5
412 +49Passes327 −41
71% +3Pass accuracy61% −5
81% +33Field tilt19% −21
48 +12Final-third entries22 −9
25 +15.4Box entries11 +2.6
8.9 −6Passes per defensive action12.5 −3
12 +7.3Corners2 −2.0
13 0Tackles15 +1
6 −5Interceptions9 −2
9 −8Clearances46 +22
3 +0.6Saves4 +0.3
14 +2Fouls16 +3
0 −2.1Offsides6 +4.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 70', 0.16 xGHaunstrup 62', 0.10 xGLafferty 64', 0.08 xGKiltie 63', 0.07 xGPower 21', 0.05 xGBroadfoot 22', 0.05 xGLafferty 35', 0.05 xGPinnock 35', 0.05 xGPower 40', 0.05 xGMedley 51', 0.05 xGBurke 65', 0.04 xGLafferty 17', 0.03 xGMedley 64', 0.48 xG, goal51%0.64 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.64 xG, 1 goal24%0.30 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals11%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals10%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Shankland 90', 0.42 xGShankland 78', 0.11 xGMcNulty 88', 0.09 xGAppere 45+1', 0.07 xGButcher 59', 0.07 xGShankland 3', 0.06 xGButcher 90+1', 0.04 xGAppere 57', 0.03 xGHarkes 59', 0.03 xGMcNulty 74', 0.03 xGShankland 83', 0.02 xGSporle 18', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals57%0.58 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals21%0.21 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal20%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

0.53 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.91 11 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.11 1 shot, 0 goals
0.72 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (49%) · Kilmarnock 0.22, Dundee United 0.81 xG
Dundee United ahead
47 min (51%) · Kilmarnock 1.03, Dundee United 0.20 xG

Line-ups

16225243768191028DoyleMillenBroadfootMedleyHaunstrupMcKenziePowerDickerPinnockKiltieLaffertyGoalYellow card61'61'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Tommy Wright12126172366183924SiegristL. SmithEdwardsReynoldsRobsonHarkesFuchsButcherSporleMcNultyShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal55'28'Dundee United 4-4-2Micky Mellon

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 61' Burke for McKenzie
  • 61' Kabamba for Pinnock

Dundee United substitutes

  • 28' Appere for Sporle · off 83'
  • 55' Connolly for Fuchs · yellow card 71'
  • 83' Clark for Appere

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0570
MillenRB900.000.0200.0972
BroadfootCB900.050.0100.0354
MedleyCB9010.530.0200.0894
HaunstrupLB900.100.0610.0664
McKenzieRM610.000.0720.0991
PowerCM900.090.1300.15136
DickerCM900.000.0710.1078
PinnockLM610.050.0700.0320
Kiltie ST900.070.3420.2140
LaffertyST9010.160.031−0.0242
BurkeMF290.040.2410.2450
KabambaFW290.160.1910.0800

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SiegristGK900.000.0000.0002
L. Smith RB900.000.0620.1698
EdwardsCB900.000.0000.03320
ReynoldsCB900.000.0000.02310
RobsonLB900.000.0910.1378
Harkes RM9010.030.0420.1764
Fuchs CM550.000.0100.0422
ButcherCM900.110.0300.0828
SporleLM2810.050.0210.0211
McNultyST900.120.061−0.0211
ShanklandST900.600.0110.0542
AppereFW550.100.0100.0002
Connolly DF350.000.0000.0124
ClarkMF70.000.0310.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Millen and McKenzie: 5 passesMillen and Kiltie: 5 passesMedley and Broadfoot: 5 passesHaunstrup and Power: 5 passesMcKenzie and Kiltie: 5 passesDicker and Pinnock: 5 passesMillen and Dicker: 6 passesMedley and Lafferty: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 7 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 7 passesPinnock and Kiltie: 7 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 8 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 8 passesMcKenzie and Dicker: 8 passesMcKenzie and Pinnock: 8 passesDicker and Kiltie: 8 passesMillen and Power: 9 passesPower and Pinnock: 9 passesMcKenzie and Power: 11 passesDicker and Power: 12 passesDoyle: 9 completed passesMillen: 19 completed passesMedley: 18 completed passesBroadfoot: 16 completed passesHaunstrup: 22 completed passesMcKenzie: 24 completed passesDicker: 34 completed passesPower: 33 completed passesPinnock: 18 completed passesKiltie: 16 completed passesLafferty: 8 completed passes16222453786191028DoyleMillenMedleyBroadfootHaunstrupMcKenzieDickerPowerPinnockKiltieLaffertyStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee United

L. Smith and Reynolds: 3 passesL. Smith and McNulty: 3 passesRobson and Sporle: 3 passesHarkes and Fuchs: 3 passesFuchs and Shankland: 3 passesEdwards and Butcher: 4 passesL. Smith and Edwards: 5 passesL. Smith and Fuchs: 5 passesL. Smith and Shankland: 5 passesReynolds and Sporle: 5 passesReynolds and Robson: 6 passesL. Smith and Harkes: 7 passesSiegrist: 3 completed passesL. Smith: 18 completed passesEdwards: 7 completed passesReynolds: 8 completed passesRobson: 8 completed passesHarkes: 8 completed passesFuchs: 6 completed passesButcher: 4 completed passesSporle: 8 completed passesMcNulty: 3 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes12126172366183924SiegristL. SmithEdwardsReynoldsRobsonHarkesFuchsButcherSporleMcNultyShanklandStarters until 28' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MillenPower10
DickerPower8
HaunstrupDicker8
DickerHaunstrup7
PowerDicker7

Dundee United

FromToPasses
L. SmithHarkes12
RobsonMcNulty7
ButcherL. Smith7
L. SmithButcher7
ReynoldsRobson6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−2.51−5.010−3.32−5.23−3.44−2.56−1.27+0.85−4.03−5.13−1.21−4.54+0.15+0.24−1.48+4.46+2.41−1.84+0.68+3.84+1.84+2.21−0.41−0.411+9.12+1.20−0.33+2.21+0.61+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Dundee United

50.09+2.536+19.210+2.819+11.96−0.810+2.74−3.210+2.16−3.84−1.57+1.82−2.45−0.57+1.62−2.32−1.73+0.32−0.72−1.80−2.40−1.30−0.92+0.31−0.82+1.40−0.11+0.60−0.40−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.040.010.010.010.020.010.040.010.030.010.020.100.080.010.040.04−0.02−0.050.080.090.030.020.030.270.26LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.020.040.070.020.050.070.030.010.07−0.050.090.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackKilmarnock0.91 → 0.91Dundee United0.96 → 0.95Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.24Dundee United1.38 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th28%29%+1
Bottom23%25%+2
Dundee United
Top six8%5%−3
11th1%1%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
St. Mirren
Top six62%64%+2
Hamilton Academical
11th29%29%0
Bottom46%46%0

From the forecast before the match (27 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.121.07
Win36%33%
Expected Points1.391.30
Clean sheet34%33%

Kilmarnock 36%Draw 31%Dundee United 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%3%7%8%4%1%3%3%2%12%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
11th28%23%29%31%
Bottom23%14%25%32%
Dundee United
Top six8%2%5%19%
11th1%3%1%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%–
St. Mirren
Top six62%66%64%57%
Hamilton Academical
11th29%27%29%31%
Bottom46%51%46%42%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–120 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  2. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47
  3. L0–110 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.95
  4. L0–26 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.49–1.56
  5. L0–42 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.87–2.13
  6. L2–330 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.17–2.14

Dundee United

  1. L1–421 FebRangers (A)xG 1.04–3.26
  2. W3–013 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.93–0.93
  3. W2–06 FebRoss County (A)xG 1.65–0.74
  4. L1–23 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.97–1.90
  5. L0–230 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.51–1.34
  6. L1–527 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.23–3.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position11th7th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠208–⁠10–⁠12
Points24 (0.80 per game)34 (1.13 per game)
Expected Points per game1.110.98
Goals26–⁠4227–⁠42
xG per game0.97–⁠1.340.94–⁠1.56
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.19–⁠1.361.27, 0.96–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.78–⁠1.321.00, 0.92–⁠1.54
ManagerTommy Wright (2)Micky Mellon (30)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackKilmarnock0.91, 12thDundee United0.96, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.25, 8thDundee United1.38, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 0.91Dundee United attack: 0.960.960.91Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.25Dundee United defence: 1.381.381.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+2%−20%+31%
Counter-attacks−89%−29%+54%+92%
Set pieces+1%+25%−37%+15%
Penalties−4%−4%−62%−23%
Headers−5%average−52%+19%
Left side−24%+18%+14%+38%
Centre−28%+3%−39%+14%
Right side−23%+3%−23%+46%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−24%+46%Centre−28%+14%Right side−23%+38%Open play−33%+31%Counter-attacks−89%+92%Set pieces+1%+15%Headers−5%+19%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+14%+3%Centre−39%+3%Right side−23%+18%Open play−20%+2%Counter-attacks+54%−29%Set pieces−37%+25%Headers−52%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

0.97xG0.94
1.34xG against1.56
46%Possession47%
10.0Shots9.5
13.3Shots against15.6
3.0Shots on target2.9
0.9Big chances1.2
18.5Touches in the opposition box14.1
363Passes368
68%Pass accuracy66%
4.7Corners4.0
48%Field tilt40%
36.5Final-third entries31.2
9.6Box entries8.4
14.7Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.891.14
Ahead181.091.63
Behind301.021.45

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.811.29
Ahead181.201.27
Behind261.002.25

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.144–4
16–300.130.224–8
31–450.200.176–4
46–600.200.205–7
61–750.200.284–8
76–900.150.333–11

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.144–3
16–300.200.194–9
31–450.120.334–9
46–600.160.235–4
61–750.070.371–8
76–900.230.299–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Doyle 5Eastwood 1McGowan 13Millen 12Rossi 4Broadfoot 23Dikamona 9Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 3Waters 16Haunstrup 13Tshibola 1Power 23Kabamba 7Burke 2Dicker 17McKenzie 3Kiltie 3Tshibola 24Mulumbu 5Pinnock 1Burke 20McKenzie 3Pinnock 2Kabamba 14Brophy 6Kiltie 4McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Pinnock 64-3-3 in 11 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-2 (9), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTSiegrist 28Mehmet 2Edwards 19L. Smith 10Neilson 6Connolly 21Butcher 1Reynolds 28Robson 1Bolton 10L. Smith 9Chalmers 3Butcher 20Clark 10Appere 1Pawlett 11Robson 9Powers 6Harkes 21Fuchs 9Robson 12Sporle 8Bolton 3Clark 12McNulty 9Chalmers 1Shankland 23Appere 6Robson 53-5-2 in 10 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (10), 4-4-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2020Dundee United2–0KilmarnockxG 0.93–0.65
29 August 2020Kilmarnock4–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.15–1.04

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Dundee United won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–2 and xG 0.90–0.99 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke232,000730.240.22
Whitehall5461200.400.04
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba211,953520.290.02

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark221,835810.280.11
Shankland232,116720.280.11
Sporle10925220.190.15
Pawlett141,225110.130.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.