Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Johnstone 1–0 Kilmarnock

Friday 6 November 2020, 19:45 · McDiarmid Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–0

St. Johnstone McNamara 70'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Goals10
xG0.610.46
Expected Points1.401.12

St. Johnstone 31%Draw 48%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 0–0, 36%. Final score 1–0, 20%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+15%3%20%11%2%6%3%1%36%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTO'Halloran on for Wotherspoon, 67'Kane on for May, 77'Brophy on for Kiltie and Pinnock on for Tshibola, 75'Whitehall on for Waters, 90'McNamara 70'St. Johnstone 0.61Kilmarnock 0.4600.250.50.750153045607590HTO'Halloran on for Wotherspoon, 67'Kane on for May, 77'Brophy on for Kiltie and Pinnock on for Tshibola, 75'Whitehall on for Waters, 90'McNamara 70'0.610.46St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.61 −0.61xG0.46 −0.51
0.21 −0.66xG on target0.00 −1.11
11 −1.6Shots8 −1.5
2 −0.9Shots on target0 −3.5
0 −1.5Big chances0 −1.1
19 −5Touches in the opposition box8 −8
49% +2Possession51% +7
409 +40Passes431 +81
74% +8Pass accuracy71% +1
64% +10Field tilt36% −8
55 +19Final-third entries37 0
11 +1.2Box entries2 −7.3
12.6 −3Passes per defensive action15.1 0
4 −0.9Corners5 +0.6
12 −4Tackles11 −2
12 +1Interceptions8 −2
21 +1Clearances16 −3
0 −1.5Saves1 −1.2
18 +6Fouls12 0
3 +1.1Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

May 34', 0.09 xGWotherspoon 59', 0.09 xGMay 7', 0.08 xGWotherspoon 41', 0.06 xGWotherspoon 10', 0.05 xGMay 55', 0.05 xGConway 6', 0.03 xGKane 83', 0.03 xGConway 87', 0.03 xGConway 8', 0.02 xGMcNamara 70', 0.06 xG, goal15%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals49%0.30 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.30 xG, 1 goal8%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals20%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 44', 0.11 xGKabamba 44', 0.08 xGBrophy 79', 0.07 xGBroadfoot 23', 0.06 xGKabamba 44', 0.05 xGKabamba 60', 0.04 xGBurke 24', 0.03 xGPower 62', 0.02 xG24%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals57%0.26 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals11%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

0.44 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.07 2 shots, 0 goals
0.17 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.39 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (78%) · St. Johnstone 0.55, Kilmarnock 0.39 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
20 min (22%) · St. Johnstone 0.06, Kilmarnock 0.07 xG

Line-ups

156415188371014ClarkKerrGordonMcCartMcNamaraMcCannDavidsonTanserConwayWotherspoonMayYellow cardGoalYellow card67'77'St. Johnstone 3-4-2-1Callum Davidson2322517188627291110RogersMillenBroadfootFindlayWatersDickerPowerTshibolaBurkeKabambaKiltieYellow card90'75'75'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Alex Dyer

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 67' O'Halloran for Wotherspoon · 1 assist
  • 77' Kane for May

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 75' Pinnock for Tshibola
  • 75' Brophy for Kiltie
  • 90' Whitehall for Waters

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0100.0781
KerrCB900.000.0710.16118
Gordon CB900.000.0000.0435
McCartCB900.000.0800.19144
McNamaraRWB9010.060.0610.1574
McCannCM900.000.0200.0787
Davidson CM900.000.0100.0118
TanserLWB900.000.0520.14115
ConwayAM900.090.2420.1990
WotherspoonAM670.210.0200.0025
MayST770.220.0100.0100
O'HalloranDF2310.000.0010.0001
KaneFW130.030.3200.1700

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0110.0541
MillenRB900.000.0100.0341
BroadfootCB900.060.0200.1194
FindlayCB900.000.0100.0537
WatersLB900.000.0400.0726
DickerCM900.000.0310.10105
Power CM900.020.0200.0034
TshibolaCM750.000.0110.0132
BurkeRW900.030.1630.0021
KabambaST900.170.0210.0013
KiltieLW750.110.020−0.0713
PinnockMF150.000.0000.0110
BrophyFW150.070.0000.0000
WhitehallFW00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Clark and Tanser: 4 passesClark and Davidson: 4 passesKerr and Davidson: 4 passesMcCart and Davidson: 4 passesMcCart and May: 4 passesClark and Kerr: 5 passesMcCart and McCann: 5 passesMcCann and Wotherspoon: 5 passesMcCann and Conway: 5 passesConway and May: 5 passesClark and McNamara: 6 passesKerr and McCann: 6 passesMcNamara and Davidson: 6 passesDavidson and Conway: 6 passesKerr and Gordon: 8 passesKerr and Conway: 8 passesGordon and McCart: 9 passesClark and McCart: 11 passesMcNamara and McCann: 11 passesMcCart and Wotherspoon: 12 passesKerr and McNamara: 14 passesMcCart and Tanser: 15 passesMcNamara and Conway: 15 passesTanser and Wotherspoon: 19 passesClark: 19 completed passesKerr: 28 completed passesGordon: 17 completed passesMcCart: 39 completed passesMcNamara: 27 completed passesTanser: 25 completed passesDavidson: 18 completed passesMcCann: 24 completed passesWotherspoon: 19 completed passesConway: 20 completed passesMay: 6 completed passes156415381810714ClarkKerrGordonMcCartMcNamaraTanserDavidsonMcCannWotherspoonConwayMayStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Rogers and Kabamba: 5 passesFindlay and Power: 5 passesFindlay and Tshibola: 5 passesDicker and Kiltie: 5 passesPower and Tshibola: 5 passesBurke and Kabamba: 5 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 6 passesBroadfoot and Kabamba: 6 passesRogers and Broadfoot: 7 passesMillen and Tshibola: 7 passesMillen and Burke: 7 passesBroadfoot and Findlay: 7 passesDicker and Tshibola: 7 passesWaters and Tshibola: 9 passesDicker and Power: 9 passesBroadfoot and Power: 10 passesFindlay and Waters: 10 passesPower and Burke: 10 passesFindlay and Dicker: 11 passesMillen and Broadfoot: 12 passesMillen and Dicker: 12 passesWaters and Dicker: 13 passesMillen and Power: 16 passesRogers: 7 completed passesMillen: 34 completed passesBroadfoot: 30 completed passesFindlay: 27 completed passesWaters: 25 completed passesDicker: 39 completed passesPower: 31 completed passesTshibola: 25 completed passesBurke: 18 completed passesKabamba: 7 completed passesKiltie: 13 completed passes2322517188627291110RogersMillenBroadfootFindlayWatersDickerPowerTshibolaBurkeKabambaKiltieStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
TanserWotherspoon11
TanserMcCart11
McCartWotherspoon10
KerrMcNamara10
McNamaraConway10

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MillenPower11
PowerDicker10
MillenBroadfoot10
DickerWaters9
WatersDicker9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

2−2.86+2.39−3.22−3.75+0.45−5.76−1.214+8.58−0.69+0.11−5.014+9.210+3.512+6.68+1.750.03−0.30−2.02−1.211+6.24+1.62+0.63+1.51−0.64+1.11−0.41+1.01+0.61+0.52+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Kilmarnock

5+2.43−3.111−2.88−0.34−2.25−1.29+1.84−2.714+5.111+2.42−1.25−0.22−2.33−2.04+1.25+2.04+1.44+1.22−2.01−1.02+0.21−0.63+2.20−2.40−0.70−0.21−0.10−0.50−0.51−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.020.030.010.010.030.010.030.010.020.030.030.070.030.040.010.040.050.070.120.03−0.010.01−0.01−0.010.180.160.16LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.050.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.01−0.040.01−0.02−0.01−0.080.070.060.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackSt. Johnstone1.01 → 0.97Kilmarnock1.02 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.08 → 1.03Kilmarnock1.28 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six34%46%+12
11th5%3%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six44%34%−10
11th4%7%+3
Bottom2%2%0
Dundee United
Top six30%29%−1
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (6 November 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.110.94
Win39%30%
Expected Points1.471.21
Clean sheet39%33%

St. Johnstone 39%Draw 32%Kilmarnock 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+6%2%6%2%8%7%4%1%3%3%1%13%11%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 November 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Johnstone
Top six34%46%30%23%
11th5%3%6%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six44%34%45%58%
11th4%7%3%2%
Bottom2%2%2%1%
Dundee United
Top six30%29%32%28%
Bottom2%2%1%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. D0–024 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.96–0.10
  2. W5–317 OctHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.81–0.73
  3. L0–24 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.63–1.71
  4. L0–226 SepLivingston (A)xG 1.11–0.54
  5. L0–119 SepRoss County (H)xG 0.85–0.23
  6. L0–112 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.02–0.26

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80
  2. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50
  3. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53
  4. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49
  5. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57
  6. L0–112 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.49–1.76

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position9th6th
Played1212
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠74–⁠2–⁠6
Points11 (0.92 per game)14 (1.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.551.00
Goals9–⁠1615–⁠14
xG per game1.22–⁠0.840.97–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.04–⁠0.691.17, 1.07–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 1.40–⁠0.991.17, 0.88–⁠1.65
ManagerCallum Davidson (12)Alex Dyer (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.21AttackSt. Johnstone1.01, 9thKilmarnock1.02, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.08, 4thKilmarnock1.28, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Johnstone attack: 1.01Kilmarnock attack: 1.021.021.01KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Johnstone defence: 1.08Kilmarnock defence: 1.281.281.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%−41%−27%+17%
Counter-attacks+218%−75%−84%−69%
Set pieces+8%−36%−29%+29%
Penalties−100%−24%−24%+15%
Headers+45%−16%−40%−7%
Left side+24%−35%−8%+34%
Centre−7%−38%−49%+14%
Right side−2%−51%−17%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+24%+7%Centre−7%+14%Right side−2%+34%Open play−10%+17%Counter-attacks+218%−69%Set pieces+8%+29%Headers+45%−7%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−8%−51%Centre−49%−38%Right side−17%−35%Open play−27%−41%Counter-attacks−84%−75%Set pieces−29%−36%Headers−40%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.22xG0.97
0.84xG against1.60
46%Possession44%
12.6Shots9.5
9.5Shots against15.3
2.9Shots on target3.5
1.5Big chances1.1
24.2Touches in the opposition box15.8
368Passes350
67%Pass accuracy70%
4.9Corners4.4
53%Field tilt44%
36.3Final-third entries37.2
9.8Box entries9.3
15.5Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level531.080.87
Ahead92.810.88
Behind280.970.77

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.001.63
Ahead210.891.94
Behind341.011.36

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.122–2
16–300.070.070–1
31–450.200.111–6
46–600.170.191–1
61–750.300.092–1
76–900.300.273–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.221–4
16–300.230.294–4
31–450.200.163–1
46–600.180.203–1
61–750.120.292–0
76–900.170.432–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTParish 8Clark 4Kerr 11Craig 2McCann 1Gordon 11McCart 11McNamara 10Kerr 1Rooney 1McCann 8McNamara 2Bryson 1Davidson 4Craig 4Wotherspoon 3Tanser 10Booth 2Conway 7McCann 2Craig 1Wotherspoon 6O'Halloran 6May 1Hendry 7May 4O'Halloran 13-4-2-1 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (6), 5-3-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-1-2-2-1 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 11Eastwood 1Millen 8Rossi 3McGowan 1Broadfoot 12Findlay 10Dikamona 2Waters 12Power 9Kabamba 3McKenzie 1Tshibola 11Kiltie 1Dicker 11Burke 12Kabamba 8Brophy 4Kiltie 6McKenzie 2Pinnock 24-3-3 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (7), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 August 2020Kilmarnock1–2St. JohnstonexG 0.86–1.65

1 league meeting since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 1, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 1.65–0.86 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May5526310.400.18
Conway9790220.280.26
Hendry8621000.320.03
Wotherspoon9794210.140.14

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke12984420.250.27
Kiltie7602220.200.09
Kabamba11971400.180.02
Tshibola121,043200.130.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.