Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Livingston 0–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 2 October 2021, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 8 · Half-time 0–1 · Attendance 1,627

St. Mirren Erhahon 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Goals01
xG1.030.77
Expected Points1.521.10

Livingston 38%Draw 38%St. Mirren 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 23%. Final score 0–1, 15%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+12%15%3%15%5%7%10%3%2%3%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Shinnie, 51'Devlin on for McMillan, 64'Hamilton on for Bailey, 78'Main on for Ronan, 64'McAllister on for Millar, 75'Erwin on for Brophy, 89'Erhahon 29'Livingston 1.03St. Mirren 0.7700.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Shinnie, 51'Devlin on for McMillan, 64'Hamilton on for Bailey, 78'Main on for Ronan, 64'McAllister on for Millar, 75'Erwin on for Brophy, 89'Erhahon 29'1.030.77LivingstonSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonSt. Mirren

1.03 +0.44xG0.77 −0.31
1.00 +0.46xG on target0.84 −0.21
13 +5.0Shots7 −4.0
6 +3.7Shots on target4 +1.0
2 +1.4Big chances1 −0.1
18 +13.0Touches in the opposition box7 −10.5
54% +17Possession46% 0
396 +119Passes347 +33
64% +3Pass accuracy61% −7
72% +40Field tilt28% −17
25 +3Final-third entries29 +1
7 +0.4Box entries5 −4.7
13.0 −2Passes per defensive action14.8 +2
8 +4.0Corners1 −4.3
14 −5Tackles10 −5
12 +1.3Interceptions9 0.0
9 −14Clearances27 +11
3 −0.9Saves4 +1.0
12 −4Fouls11 −1
1 −0.3Offsides1 −2.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

McMillan 45+3', 0.39 xGBailey 57', 0.15 xGPenrice 36', 0.12 xGObileye 45+3', 0.08 xGAnderson 79', 0.05 xGObileye 57', 0.04 xGOmeonga 40', 0.03 xGForrest 42', 0.03 xGObileye 68', 0.03 xGHolt 79', 0.03 xGForrest 20', 0.02 xGBailey 23', 0.02 xGLongridge 49', 0.02 xG38%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.39 xG, 0 goals26%0.27 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals25%0.25 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals11%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

McCarthy 78', 0.52 xGMillar 61', 0.04 xGBrophy 5', 0.03 xGMain 76', 0.03 xGRonan 40', 0.02 xGMillar 59', 0.02 xGErhahon 29', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.58 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals18%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal4%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.48 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.11 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.11 1 shot, 1 goal
0.54 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.54 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (31%) · Livingston 0.04, St. Mirren 0.14 xG
St. Mirren ahead
64 min (69%) · Livingston 0.98, St. Mirren 0.63 xG

Line-ups

3221563331829172214StryjekMcMillanFitzwaterObileyeLongridgeOmeongaHoltPenriceForrestShinnieBaileyYellow cardYellow card64'51'78'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale145224461637439AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserMillarPowerErhahonTanserMcGrathRonanBrophyGoal75'64'89'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin

Livingston substitutes

  • 51' Anderson for Shinnie
  • 64' Devlin for McMillan
  • 78' Hamilton for Bailey

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 64' Main for Ronan
  • 75' McAllister for Millar
  • 89' Erwin for Brophy

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0210
McMillanRB640.390.0100.0102
FitzwaterCB900.000.0000.0543
ObileyeCB900.150.000−0.0223
Longridge LB900.020.0200.0467
OmeongaCM900.030.0110.0138
HoltCM900.030.0420.0463
PenriceCM900.120.0100.0544
Forrest RW900.060.2820.2343
ShinnieST510.000.0110.0100
BaileyLW780.170.0830.0230
AndersonFW390.050.0000.0100
DevlinDF260.000.0000.0102
HamiltonFW120.000.0110.0100

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0672
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0100.0689
McCarthyCB900.520.0010.0139
FraserCB9010.000.0210.0985
MillarRWB750.060.0110.0412
PowerCM900.000.0100.03310
ErhahonCM9010.110.0000.0043
TanserLWB900.000.2330.1933
McGrathAM900.000.0100.0338
RonanAM640.020.0100.0220
BrophyST890.030.000−0.0112
MainFW260.030.0100.0000
McAllisterFW150.000.0100.0210
ErwinFW10.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Fitzwater and Shinnie: 3 passesObileye and Omeonga: 3 passesLongridge and Forrest: 3 passesMcMillan and Forrest: 4 passesObileye and Penrice: 4 passesOmeonga and Holt: 4 passesOmeonga and Forrest: 4 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 4 passesHolt and Shinnie: 4 passesStryjek and McMillan: 5 passesFitzwater and Obileye: 5 passesStryjek and Obileye: 6 passesLongridge and Penrice: 6 passesLongridge and Bailey: 6 passesStryjek and Fitzwater: 7 passesHolt and Bailey: 7 passesFitzwater and Holt: 8 passesObileye and Longridge: 9 passesLongridge and Holt: 10 passesMcMillan and Fitzwater: 11 passesObileye and Holt: 11 passesMcMillan and Omeonga: 13 passesMcMillan and Holt: 17 passesStryjek: 7 completed passesMcMillan: 30 completed passesFitzwater: 20 completed passesObileye: 21 completed passesLongridge: 20 completed passesOmeonga: 15 completed passesPenrice: 9 completed passesHolt: 36 completed passesForrest: 8 completed passesShinnie: 6 completed passesBailey: 8 completed passes3221563332918172214StryjekMcMillanFitzwaterObileyeLongridgeOmeongaPenriceHoltForrestShinnieBaileyStarters until 51' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Shaughnessy and Millar: 4 passesMcCarthy and Power: 4 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 4 passesFraser and Power: 4 passesTanser and Power: 4 passesPower and Erhahon: 4 passesErhahon and Ronan: 4 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 5 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 5 passesAlnwick and Tanser: 5 passesMillar and Ronan: 5 passesTanser and McGrath: 5 passesShaughnessy and Power: 6 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 6 passesFraser and Tanser: 6 passesPower and Ronan: 6 passesMcCarthy and Ronan: 7 passesFraser and Ronan: 7 passesTanser and Erhahon: 7 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 8 passesShaughnessy and Ronan: 10 passesFraser and Erhahon: 10 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 13 passesAlnwick: 13 completed passesShaughnessy: 22 completed passesMcCarthy: 25 completed passesFraser: 32 completed passesMillar: 7 completed passesTanser: 13 completed passesPower: 23 completed passesErhahon: 16 completed passesMcGrath: 11 completed passesRonan: 22 completed passesBrophy: 2 completed passes145224436167439AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserMillarTanserPowerErhahonMcGrathRonanBrophyStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
McMillanHolt15
McMillanFitzwater9
McMillanOmeonga9
HoltObileye9
LongridgeHolt8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyFraser8
FraserErhahon8
McCarthyShaughnessy7
FraserMcCarthy6
ShaughnessyRonan6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

3−2.02−4.94−3.09+0.49+1.712+4.33−3.38−0.490.02−4.44−0.33−0.75+0.111+5.96+1.63+0.71−0.94+1.43−1.15+2.61+0.14+2.92−0.420.01−1.10−0.41+0.41+0.42+1.33−14.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

St. Mirren

7+3.77+0.126+13.48+3.03−2.44−3.78+1.65−1.96−0.412+6.07+1.06+1.16+2.05+0.97+0.49+4.72−1.32−0.31−2.92−1.34+1.90−2.40−1.63+1.44+2.63+2.00−0.10−1.100.00−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.030.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.01−0.010.050.040.04−0.02−0.020.110.04−0.03−0.050.17LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.050.030.040.040.010.030.01−0.010.02−0.01−0.020.060.030.020.04−0.01−0.020.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackLivingston0.92 → 0.90St. Mirren0.98 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.23 → 1.22St. Mirren1.29 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six12%7%−5
11th17%20%+3
Bottom11%15%+4
St. Mirren
Top six18%26%+8
11th12%7%−5
Bottom6%3%−3

From the forecast before the match (2 October 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.190.97
Win40%29%
Expected Points1.521.18
Clean sheet38%30%

Livingston 40%Draw 31%St. Mirren 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

St. Mirren goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+5%2%6%2%8%8%4%1%3%3%2%1%12%10%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 October 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawSt. Mirren win
Livingston
Top six12%18%10%7%
11th17%13%18%20%
Bottom11%7%11%15%
St. Mirren
Top six18%13%18%26%
11th12%15%12%7%
Bottom6%9%5%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–325 SepHearts (A)xG 0.12–2.43
  2. W1–019 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.62–1.24
  3. D0–011 SepDundee FC (A)xG 0.44–1.08
  4. L0–228 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.63–1.05
  5. L1–221 AugMotherwell (H)xG 0.95–2.30
  6. L1–28 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.30–0.44

St. Mirren

  1. W3–226 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–1.11
  2. D2–218 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.10
  3. D0–011 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.72–1.20
  4. D0–029 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.72–0.81
  5. L0–621 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.23–4.93
  6. L1–27 AugHearts (H)xG 0.73–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonSt. Mirren
Position10th8th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠51–⁠4–⁠2
Points4 (0.57 per game)7 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.771.24
Goals3–⁠128–⁠14
xG per game0.59–⁠1.481.08–⁠1.68
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 0.96–⁠1.331.25, 1.17–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game0.25, 0.31–⁠1.600.67, 0.95–⁠2.71
ManagerDavid Martindale (30)Jim Goodwin (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackLivingston0.92, 10thSt. Mirren0.98, 7thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.23, 7thSt. Mirren1.29, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepLivingston attack: 0.92St. Mirren attack: 0.980.980.92St. MirrenLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepLivingston defence: 1.23St. Mirren defence: 1.291.291.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−66%+24%−38%+48%
Counter-attacks+57%−70%+63%+133%
Set pieces−19%+29%+33%−6%
Penalties−100%−8%−8%−8%
Headers−45%+24%+29%−29%
Left side−16%−3%−31%+47%
Centre−63%+11%−6%+38%
Right side−48%+68%−19%+29%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−16%+29%Centre−63%+38%Right side−48%+47%Open play−66%+48%Counter-attacks+57%+133%Set pieces−19%−6%Headers−45%−29%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−31%+68%Centre−6%+11%Right side−19%−3%Open play−38%+24%Counter-attacks+63%−70%Set pieces+33%+29%Headers+29%+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonSt. Mirren

0.59xG1.08
1.48xG against1.68
37%Possession46%
8.0Shots11.0
15.7Shots against16.1
2.3Shots on target3.0
0.6Big chances1.1
5.0Touches in the opposition box17.5
277Passes314
61%Pass accuracy68%
4.0Corners5.3
32%Field tilt45%
21.7Final-third entries28.0
6.6Box entries9.7
15.2Passes per defensive action13.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.611.11
Ahead120.781.88
Behind280.481.96

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.181.17
Ahead131.312.04
Behind280.782.36

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.220–1
16–300.070.091–1
31–450.170.272–1
46–600.020.320–3
61–750.160.200–1
76–900.100.380–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.172–0
16–300.130.310–5
31–450.170.351–3
46–600.220.212–2
61–750.170.491–3
76–900.330.152–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWStryjek 7Devlin 6McMillan 1Obileye 7Fitzwater 7Penrice 3Longridge 3Lewis 1Pittman 3Bailey 2Holt 7Sibbald 3Williamson 2Penrice 2McMillan 2Sibbald 2Bailey 1Anderson 5Shinnie 2Forrest 4Lewis 2Penrice 14-3-3 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBDMRWBCMCMLWBSTSTAlnwick 7Fraser 7Shaughnessy 7McCarthy 4Dunne 3Millar 3Erhahon 1McGrath 1Ronan 3McGrath 1Tait 1McGrath 3Reid 2McCarthy 1Power 5Erhahon 3Tanser 7Main 5McGrath 2Brophy 6Kiltie 13-1-4-2 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 February 2021St. Mirren1–1LivingstonxG 0.71–0.29
21 November 2020Livingston0–1St. MirrenxG 0.46–0.39
1 August 2020St. Mirren1–0LivingstonxG 1.04–0.55

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 0, St. Mirren won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–3 and xG 0.43–0.71 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest5451100.110.07
Penrice6540010.020.10
Fitzwater7589000.080.02
Devlin6566000.040.06

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath7630110.170.22
Tanser7630020.080.24
Main5479110.240.02
Shaughnessy7630200.210.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.