Digressive Celts

Matches › 2021/22

Celtic 1–0 Hearts

Thursday 2 December 2021, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 16 · Half-time 1–0 · Attendance 57,578

Celtic Furuhashi 33'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals10
xG2.860.67
Expected Points2.700.20

Celtic 87%Draw 10%Hearts 3%

Most likely score 3–0, 14%. Final score 1–0, 6%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%6%5%1%10%3%3%9%7%2%4%3%1%1%13%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMontgomery on for Ralston, 37'Johnston on for Jota, 72'Bitton on for Welsh, 73'Boyce on for Woodburn, 55'Mackay-Steven on for McEneff, 66'Furuhashi 33'Celtic 2.86Hearts 0.6701230153045607590HTMontgomery on for Ralston, 37'Johnston on for Jota, 72'Bitton on for Welsh, 73'Boyce on for Woodburn, 55'Mackay-Steven on for McEneff, 66'Furuhashi 33'2.860.67CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

2.86 +0.40xG0.67 −0.72
2.45 −0.04xG on target0.07 −1.50
25 +5Shots9 −4
5 −1.6Shots on target2 −2.6
3 −0.9Big chances2 +0.6
32 −3Touches in the opposition box16 −7
69% −3Possession31% −24
640 −33Passes281 −159
88% 0Pass accuracy70% −5
85% +4Field tilt15% −39
66 −10Final-third entries25 −18
22 0Box entries4 −8
8.9 −0.6Passes per defensive action30.0 +17.2
13 +4.1Corners6 +0.6
12 0Tackles21 +7
13 +6.0Interceptions8 −1.1
19 +4Clearances33 +15
2 +0.2Saves4 −0.3
12 0Fouls9 −3
3 +1.6Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Forrest 10', 0.76 xGForrest 84', 0.49 xGFuruhashi 56', 0.11 xGTurnbull 90+1', 0.11 xGRogic 89', 0.10 xGStarfelt 6', 0.09 xGJohnston 74', 0.08 xGJota 10', 0.07 xGTurnbull 51', 0.06 xGTurnbull 54', 0.05 xGJota 22', 0.04 xGRalston 23', 0.04 xGTurnbull 52', 0.04 xGRogic 86', 0.04 xGTurnbull 87', 0.04 xGForrest 7', 0.03 xGJota 12', 0.03 xGJuranovic 63', 0.03 xGRogic 90', 0.03 xGForrest 90+4', 0.03 xGTurnbull 6', 0.02 xGJuranovic 27', 0.02 xGMcGregor 62', 0.02 xGMcGregor 24', 0.01 xGFuruhashi 33', 0.51 xG, goal47%1.36 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.36 xG, 1 goal26%0.75 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals10%0.29 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals15%0.42 xGEdge of the box: 11 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Kingsley 59', 0.19 xGBoyce 67', 0.16 xGBoyce 67', 0.08 xGMcKay 85', 0.08 xGHalkett 68', 0.05 xGHalkett 33', 0.04 xGGinnelly 9', 0.03 xGGinnelly 70', 0.02 xGMcKay 66', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.48 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals18%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

2.64 19 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.36 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.23 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
33 min (35%) · Celtic 1.63, Hearts 0.07 xG
Celtic ahead
61 min (65%) · Celtic 1.23, Hearts 0.60 xG

Line-ups

15565748818421449817HartRalstonWelshStarfeltJuranovicRogicMcGregorTurnbullForrestFuruhashiJotaGoal37'73'72'Celtic 4-3-3Ange Postecoglou124193145981830GordonSmithSouttarHalkettKingsleyDevlinHaringWoodburnMcEneffMcKayGinnelly55'66'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson

Celtic substitutes

  • 37' Montgomery for Ralston · yellow card 84'
  • 72' Johnston for Jota
  • 73' Bitton for Welsh

Hearts substitutes

  • 55' Boyce for Woodburn
  • 66' Mackay-Steven for McEneff

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0210
RalstonRB3710.040.3310.2232
WelshCB730.000.0200.1489
StarfeltCB900.090.0210.1468
JuranovicLB900.060.0530.0787
RogicCM900.170.2920.1753
McGregorCM900.030.0800.1067
TurnbullCM900.320.2050.1372
ForrestRW901.310.2330.1490
FuruhashiST9010.620.0610.0601
JotaLW720.140.1520.1681
Montgomery DF530.000.0500.0154
JohnstonFW180.080.0220.0201
BittonDF170.000.0100.0422

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
SmithRB900.000.010−0.01310
SouttarCB900.000.0410.13814
HalkettCB900.090.0000.02119
KingsleyLB900.190.0000.0224
DevlinDM900.000.000−0.0106
HaringDM900.000.1110.0328
WoodburnRW550.000.0000.0114
McEneffAM660.000.0000.0114
McKayLW900.100.6430.2083
GinnellyST900.050.000−0.0100
BoyceFW350.250.0110.0220
Mackay-StevenFW240.000.0000.0830

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Ralston and Forrest: 3 passesRalston and Furuhashi: 3 passesWelsh and McGregor: 3 passesWelsh and Forrest: 3 passesRogic and Jota: 3 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 4 passesHart and Starfelt: 5 passesJuranovic and McGregor: 5 passesRogic and McGregor: 5 passesRogic and Forrest: 5 passesRalston and McGregor: 6 passesStarfelt and Jota: 6 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 6 passesHart and Welsh: 7 passesStarfelt and McGregor: 7 passesRalston and Rogic: 8 passesStarfelt and Turnbull: 8 passesStarfelt and Juranovic: 12 passesJuranovic and Jota: 12 passesRalston and Welsh: 14 passesTurnbull and Jota: 15 passesJuranovic and Turnbull: 17 passesStarfelt and Welsh: 21 passesHart: 10 completed passesRalston: 20 completed passesStarfelt: 31 completed passesWelsh: 28 completed passesJuranovic: 28 completed passesRogic: 11 completed passesMcGregor: 19 completed passesTurnbull: 24 completed passesForrest: 8 completed passesFuruhashi: 0 completed passesJota: 18 completed passes15564578818421449817HartRalstonStarfeltWelshJuranovicRogicMcGregorTurnbullForrestFuruhashiJotaStarters until 37' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Smith: 3 passesGordon and Halkett: 3 passesGordon and Kingsley: 3 passesSmith and Woodburn: 3 passesSmith and McEneff: 4 passesKingsley and Haring: 4 passesHaring and Woodburn: 4 passesSouttar and Haring: 5 passesHalkett and Kingsley: 5 passesHalkett and Devlin: 5 passesSouttar and Halkett: 6 passesDevlin and Haring: 6 passesDevlin and McKay: 6 passesSmith and Souttar: 7 passesGordon: 9 completed passesSmith: 12 completed passesSouttar: 12 completed passesHalkett: 12 completed passesKingsley: 7 completed passesDevlin: 13 completed passesHaring: 15 completed passesWoodburn: 5 completed passesMcEneff: 6 completed passesMcKay: 4 completed passesGinnelly: 1 completed passes124193145981830GordonSmithSouttarHalkettKingsleyDevlinHaringWoodburnMcEneffMcKayGinnellyStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
StarfeltWelsh28
WelshStarfelt23
MontgomeryStarfelt20
JuranovicTurnbull16
TurnbullJota15

Hearts

FromToPasses
SmithSouttar8
SouttarSmith7
HalkettKingsley7
SouttarHalkett7
DevlinSouttar6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

4+0.13−1.816+7.76+2.16+0.73−2.450.04−0.49+3.69+1.83−2.14+0.24+0.57+1.65−0.93−1.64+0.13+0.95+1.13−2.24+2.03+1.64+2.23+1.44+1.10−0.41+0.60−0.50−0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Hearts

7+3.24−1.128+17.714+9.04−1.313+7.913+6.416+8.37+1.56−1.02−3.93−2.90−5.60−6.72−2.73−1.72−1.34+0.54+0.91−3.24+1.53+1.21−0.81−0.70−2.60−0.31+0.50−0.90−0.50−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.090.050.080.010.020.070.040.110.040.040.060.110.090.02−0.050.030.060.44LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.030.020.04−0.010.010.030.040.01−0.010.050.040.020.05−0.010.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackCeltic2.02 → 2.01Hearts1.28 → 1.26Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.82 → 0.80Hearts1.18 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title31%35%+4
Hearts
Top six97%96%−1
Rangers
Title69%65%−4
Livingston
Top six10%10%0
11th18%19%+1
Bottom15%15%0

From the forecast before the match (2 December 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.190.85
Win68%13%
Expected Points2.220.58
Clean sheet43%11%

Celtic 68%Draw 20%Hearts 13%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%4%1%4%1%7%3%5%4%2%2%2%1%10%9%11%10%8%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 December 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Celtic
Title31%35%26%20%
Hearts
Top six97%96%98%99%
Rangers
Title69%65%74%80%
Livingston
Top six10%10%10%13%
11th18%19%18%17%
Bottom15%15%14%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–128 NovAberdeen (H)xG 2.31–0.85
  2. W4–27 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.95–0.66
  3. D0–030 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.80–0.10
  4. W3–127 OctHibernian (A)xG 2.86–1.50
  5. W2–023 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.70–0.13
  6. W2–016 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.18–0.54

Hearts

  1. W2–027 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.16–1.16
  2. L0–220 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–2.16
  3. W5–26 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.14–0.85
  4. L1–230 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.95–1.11
  5. D1–127 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.94–1.22
  6. D1–123 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.49–0.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position2nd3rd
Played1415
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠2–⁠37–⁠6–⁠2
Points29 (2.07 per game)27 (1.80 per game)
Expected Points per game2.371.58
Goals32–⁠1025–⁠14
xG per game2.46–⁠0.641.39–⁠1.15
Home: points, xG per game2.43, 3.23–⁠0.432.25, 1.77–⁠0.86
Away: points, xG per game1.71, 1.69–⁠0.861.29, 0.94–⁠1.49
ManagerAnge Postecoglou (14)Robbie Neilson (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackCeltic2.02, 1stHearts1.28, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.82, 2ndHearts1.18, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecCeltic attack: 2.02Hearts attack: 1.282.021.28HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecCeltic defence: 0.82Hearts defence: 1.181.180.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+141%−45%+5%−1%
Counter-attacks+119%−53%−48%−56%
Set pieces+42%−44%−5%+40%
Penalties+44%−52%+170%−100%
Headers+80%−11%−24%−7%
Left side+85%−51%+53%−14%
Centre+162%−33%−35%+11%
Right side+46%−66%+19%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+85%+24%Centre+162%+11%Right side+46%−14%Open play+141%−1%Counter-attacks+119%−56%Set pieces+42%+40%Headers+80%−7%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+53%−66%Centre−35%−33%Right side+19%−51%Open play+5%−45%Counter-attacks−48%−53%Set pieces−5%−44%Headers−24%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.46xG1.39
0.64xG against1.15
72%Possession55%
20.1Shots12.7
6.9Shots against13.2
6.6Shots on target4.6
3.9Big chances1.4
35.0Touches in the opposition box22.6
673Passes440
88%Pass accuracy75%
8.9Corners5.4
81%Field tilt54%
75.8Final-third entries43.3
21.9Box entries12.3
9.5Passes per defensive action12.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level412.070.49
Ahead402.980.86
Behind101.950.39

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.611.01
Ahead321.390.99
Behind120.592.11

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.134–1
16–300.490.1110–3
31–450.390.122–2
46–600.240.096–1
61–750.390.124–2
76–900.670.086–1

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.143–2
16–300.180.165–1
31–450.370.175–3
46–600.320.212–2
61–750.190.175–4
76–900.180.295–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 13Bain 1Ralston 12Juranovic 2Carter-Vickers 10Bitton 1Starfelt 11Welsh 6Juranovic 7Taylor 4Bolingoli-Mbo… 2Bolingoli-MbomboRogic 7Christie 2Soro 1McGregor 12McCarthy 3Bitton 3Turnbull 14Abada 12Jota 1Giakoumakis 1Furuhashi 7Ajeti 3Edouard 3Jota 9Furuhashi 2Johnston 14-3-3 in 12 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (12), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 15Souttar 13Moore 4Halkett 14Kingsley 11Cochrane 3Smith 13McKay 1Moore 1Baningime 15Woodburn 1Devlin 9Haring 4Halliday 1Cochrane 9Halliday 5Kingsley 1McKay 7Ginnelly 5Woodburn 2Boyce 11Ginnelly 2Gnanduillet 2Mackay-Steven 7Woodburn 6McKay 13-4-3 in 10 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (10), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 July 2021Hearts2–1CelticxG 1.40–1.49

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Celtic won 0, Hearts won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.49–1.40 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi9754700.800.13
Abada12960320.340.40
Jota10872540.350.31
Turnbull141,226430.200.42

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce11953610.640.05
Mackay-Steven8645230.380.09
McKay9795010.150.30
Smith131,146110.100.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.