Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 3–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 6 March 2021, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 31 · Half-time 1–1

Ross County McKay 38', 49', Hjelde 47'

Kilmarnock Lafferty 18', 77' (pen) · Millen sent off 90+4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Goals32
xG1.211.67
Non-penalty xG1.210.88
Expected Points0.961.73

Ross County 22%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 3–2, 2%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%8%8%3%3%6%1%2%9%10%3%3%2%1%18%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMillen (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 90+4'Hjelde on for Tremarco, 22'Paton on for Spittal, 73'Shaw on for Lakin, Kelly on for Tillson, and Draper on for McKay, 82'McGowan on for McKenzie and Kabamba on for Pinnock, 46'Dabo on for Dicker and Burke on for Medley, 65'Tshibola on for Kiltie, 80'McKay 38'Hjelde 47'McKay 49'Lafferty 18'Lafferty 77' (pen)Kilmarnock 1.67Ross County 1.2100.511.520153045607590HTMillen (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 90+4'Hjelde on for Tremarco, 22'Paton on for Spittal, 73'Shaw on for Lakin, Kelly on for Tillson, and Draper on for McKay, 82'McGowan on for McKenzie and Kabamba on for Pinnock, 46'Dabo on for Dicker and Burke on for Medley, 65'Tshibola on for Kiltie, 80'McKay 38'Hjelde 47'McKay 49'Lafferty 18'Lafferty 77' (pen)1.671.21Ross CountyKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.21 +0.19xG1.67 +0.69
1.21Non-penalty xG0.88
1.49 +0.68xG on target1.27 +0.36
12 +2.2Shots12 +1.9
5 +1.9Shots on target3 0.0
2 +0.7Big chances2 +1.1
11 −4Touches in the opposition box17 −2
46% −2Possession54% +8
323 −58Passes362 −3
52% −18Pass accuracy56% −13
35% −10Field tilt65% +16
29 −7Final-third entries31 −6
6 −1.6Box entries8 −2.1
12.5 −2Passes per defensive action9.6 −5
3 −1.4Corners8 +3.0
6 −8Tackles12 −1
10 −1Interceptions10 −1
46 +22Clearances16 −1
1 −2.2Saves2 −0.4
20 +6Fouls12 0
1 −0.6Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Shaw 85', 0.12 xGIacovitti 40', 0.06 xGMcKay 1', 0.05 xGSpittal 36', 0.04 xGLakin 5', 0.03 xGSpittal 9', 0.03 xGLakin 15', 0.03 xGLakin 61', 0.03 xGShaw 87', 0.03 xGMcKay 38', 0.54 xG, goalHjelde 47', 0.20 xG, goalMcKay 49', 0.05 xG, goal45%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.54 xG, 1 goal23%0.28 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal17%0.20 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 1 goal8%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Pinnock 13', 0.33 xGLafferty 12', 0.14 xGKiltie 29', 0.07 xGMedley 50', 0.06 xGDabo 83', 0.05 xGPower 53', 0.04 xGLafferty 56', 0.04 xGBurke 74', 0.04 xGLafferty 18', 0.03 xGBroadfoot 80', 0.03 xGLafferty 18', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals74%0.65 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.65 xG, 1 goal8%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals18%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyKilmarnock

0.57 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.70 7 shots, 0 goals
0.64 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 4 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (29%) · Ross County 0.40, Kilmarnock 0.55 xG
Ross County ahead
47 min (50%) · Ross County 0.23, Kilmarnock 1.05 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
20 min (21%) · Ross County 0.58, Kilmarnock 0.07 xG

Line-ups

1251516232019223926LaidlawDonaldsonWatsonIacovittiNaismithSpittalLakinTillsonTremarcoMcKayWhiteYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal73'82'82'22'82'Ross County 3-5-1-1John Hughes16225243768191028DoyleMillenBroadfootMedleyHaunstrupMcKenziePowerDickerPinnockKiltieLaffertyYellow cardSent off, second yellowGoalGoalYellow card65'46'65'46'80'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Tommy Wright

Ross County substitutes

  • 22' Hjelde for Tremarco · goal 47'
  • 73' Paton for Spittal
  • 82' Draper for McKay
  • 82' Kelly for Tillson
  • 82' Shaw for Lakin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' McGowan for McKenzie
  • 46' Kabamba for Pinnock
  • 65' Burke for Medley
  • 65' Dabo for Dicker
  • 80' Tshibola for Kiltie

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0440
DonaldsonCB900.000.0510.05612
WatsonCB900.000.0000.01116
IacovittiCB900.060.0000.16513
NaismithRWB9010.000.3620.2753
SpittalCM730.060.0200.0350
Lakin CM820.090.0000.0114
Tillson CM8210.000.0410.1244
TremarcoLWB220.000.0000.0001
McKayAM8220.650.0220.0630
WhiteST900.000.010−0.0116
HjeldeDF6810.200.1910.1243
PatonMF170.000.2110.1700
DraperDF80.000.0000.0002
KellyMF80.000.0000.0001
ShawFW80.150.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0331
Millen RB900.000.0100.0744
BroadfootCB900.030.0100.01011
MedleyCB650.060.000−0.0922
HaunstrupLB900.000.0100.0140
McKenzieRM460.000.0100.0125
PowerCM900.040.3830.43162
DickerCM650.000.010−0.0115
PinnockLM460.330.0200.0311
KiltieST800.070.1210.1002
Lafferty ST9021.050.051−0.0100
McGowanDF440.000.0100.0242
KabambaFW440.000.021−0.0300
BurkeMF250.040.0110.0310
DaboMF250.050.0000.0114
TshibolaMF100.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Donaldson and Spittal: 3 passesTremarco and Lakin: 3 passesMcKay and White: 3 passesNaismith and Spittal: 4 passesLaidlaw: 3 completed passesIacovitti: 2 completed passesDonaldson: 7 completed passesWatson: 2 completed passesNaismith: 6 completed passesTremarco: 5 completed passesTillson: 5 completed passesSpittal: 5 completed passesLakin: 3 completed passesMcKay: 6 completed passesWhite: 5 completed passes1162515233222019926LaidlawIacovittiDonaldsonWatsonNaismithTremarcoTillsonSpittalLakinMcKayWhiteStarters until 22' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Millen and Dicker: 3 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 3 passesMcKenzie and Pinnock: 3 passesDicker and Power: 3 passesPinnock and Kiltie: 3 passesPower and Lafferty: 4 passesDoyle and Lafferty: 5 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 5 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 5 passesPower and Pinnock: 5 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 6 passesMcKenzie and Power: 6 passesPower and Kiltie: 6 passesDoyle: 6 completed passesMillen: 4 completed passesMedley: 5 completed passesBroadfoot: 7 completed passesHaunstrup: 12 completed passesMcKenzie: 7 completed passesDicker: 11 completed passesPower: 17 completed passesPinnock: 6 completed passesKiltie: 8 completed passesLafferty: 3 completed passes16222453786191028DoyleMillenMedleyBroadfootHaunstrupMcKenzieDickerPowerPinnockKiltieLaffertyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
TillsonLakin7
NaismithSpittal7
McKaySpittal6
SpittalNaismith6
SpittalWhite6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerKiltie8
HaunstrupKiltie6
DoyleLafferty6
MillenMcGowan6
DickerBroadfoot5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

6+0.72−4.618+2.715+6.310+4.612+4.414+6.59−0.512+3.29+3.911+6.02−1.55−0.17+1.25+0.74+0.65+2.85+1.82−2.31−1.12+0.80−1.10−1.60−2.11+0.20−0.30−0.60−0.50−0.82−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Kilmarnock

3−0.52−3.811−2.24−3.12−4.36−0.55−2.13−3.26−2.97−0.95+0.86+0.65+1.112+7.21−4.33−0.74+0.31−1.76+2.62−2.36+3.73+1.12+0.64+2.61−1.22+1.20−0.31+0.11+0.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.040.04−0.010.020.030.030.020.020.100.030.010.030.11−0.010.06−0.01−0.01−0.010.140.110.26LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.050.050.020.050.040.010.010.09−0.03−0.030.08−0.020.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackRoss County0.93 → 0.95Kilmarnock0.90 → 0.92Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.53 → 1.56Kilmarnock1.23 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th31%26%−5
Bottom32%14%−18
Kilmarnock
11th31%35%+4
Bottom25%42%+17
Hamilton Academical
11th33%32%−1
Bottom43%43%0

From the forecast before the match (6 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Expected goals1.041.24
Win30%40%
Expected Points1.201.50
Clean sheet29%35%

Ross County 30%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%3%1%8%3%1%6%7%4%2%2%2%1%11%12%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawKilmarnock win
Ross County
11th31%26%31%33%
Bottom32%14%30%45%
Kilmarnock
11th31%35%34%26%
Bottom25%42%26%11%
Hamilton Academical
11th33%32%30%35%
Bottom43%43%43%42%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–127 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.91–1.41
  2. W1–021 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.98–2.31
  3. L0–26 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.74–1.65
  4. W2–13 FebHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.44–0.49
  5. L1–227 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.56
  6. L0–523 JanRangers (A)xG 0.50–2.67

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–127 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.25–1.02
  2. L0–120 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  3. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47
  4. L0–110 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.95
  5. L0–26 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.49–1.56
  6. L0–42 FebCeltic (H)xG 1.87–2.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Position10th11th
Played3031
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠5–⁠187–⁠4–⁠20
Points26 (0.87 per game)25 (0.81 per game)
Expected Points per game0.881.12
Goals22–⁠5427–⁠43
xG per game1.02–⁠1.800.98–⁠1.33
Home: points, xG per game0.87, 0.99–⁠2.001.00, 1.19–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game0.87, 1.06–⁠1.600.62, 0.78–⁠1.32
ManagerJohn Hughes (12)Tommy Wright (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackRoss County0.93, 10thKilmarnock0.90, 11thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.53, 11thKilmarnock1.23, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County attack: 0.93Kilmarnock attack: 0.900.930.90KilmarnockRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County defence: 1.53Kilmarnock defence: 1.231.531.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+40%−33%+2%
Counter-attacks+40%−29%−89%−23%
Set pieces−22%+27%+5%+21%
Penalties−61%+114%−6%−6%
Headers+16%+13%−7%−3%
Left side−19%+18%−22%+16%
Centre−6%+54%−30%average
Right side−24%+12%−19%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−19%+7%Centre−6%averageRight side−24%+16%Open play−14%+2%Counter-attacks+40%−23%Set pieces−22%+21%Headers+16%−3%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−22%+12%Centre−30%+54%Right side−19%+18%Open play−33%+40%Counter-attacks−89%−29%Set pieces+5%+27%Headers−7%+13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyKilmarnock

1.02xG0.98
1.80xG against1.33
48%Possession46%
9.8Shots10.1
14.3Shots against13.3
3.1Shots on target3.0
1.3Big chances0.9
15.1Touches in the opposition box19.3
381Passes365
70%Pass accuracy69%
4.4Corners5.0
46%Field tilt49%
35.9Final-third entries36.9
7.6Box entries10.1
14.2Passes per defensive action14.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.061.76
Ahead140.531.89
Behind341.181.80

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.871.16
Ahead181.091.63
Behind301.071.40

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.333–6
16–300.150.277–9
31–450.150.222–5
46–600.190.300–9
61–750.170.372–13
76–900.220.308–12

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.144–4
16–300.130.214–9
31–450.200.166–4
46–600.190.205–7
61–750.230.285–8
76–900.150.343–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 25Doohan 5Randall 10Naismith 8Watson 4Donaldson 19Morris 9Watson 5Iacovitti 22Hjelde 4Grivosti 1Reid 17Tremarco 4Iacovitti 2Vigurs 11Draper 4Iacovitti 3Paton 5Charles-Cook 5Gardyne 4Kelly 11Tillson 8Draper 6Paton 13Vigurs 10Lakin 6Gardyne 8Hylton 6Stewart 6Shaw 11Stewart 9McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-5-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 24Doyle 6Eastwood 1Millen 13McGowan 13Rossi 4Broadfoot 24Dikamona 9Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 4Waters 16Haunstrup 14Tshibola 1Dicker 18Kabamba 7Burke 2Power 24McKenzie 3Kiltie 3Tshibola 24Mulumbu 5Pinnock 1Burke 20McKenzie 4Kiltie 2Kabamba 14Brophy 6Kiltie 5McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Pinnock 74-3-3 in 11 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 November 2020Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 2.12–1.87
12 August 2020Ross County2–2KilmarnockxG 2.02–1.06

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Kilmarnock won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–5 and xG 1.95–1.59 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McKay9906200.290.14
Stewart191,650210.370.06
Shaw121,233610.280.06
Hylton7730120.160.10

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke232,029730.240.23
Whitehall5461200.400.04
Brophy8637200.320.02
Kabamba211,982520.290.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.